patrick.net

Comrade Peter is a master of the dialectic process (of which I know just bare enough to pass politics at school).

Hegel?

Or were you referring to dialectical materialism?

Oh. I also believe that only through conflict can resolution arise.

"there will be massive out-migration of Californians"

Glen, Jack Lessinger has already written extensively on this topic and introduced the term "Penturbia". Since we no longer require (or desire) much of the infrastucture cities provide we are now free to live where we want to live. He amplifies on the topic at www.predicting2020.com.

I'm told the concept of penturbia is based on the 4 previous mass migrations in this country. If you want "quality of life" in the future? Think college town! Interesting stuff. Oh btw, it won't just be an exodus from CA.

Meh.
The world ended last year.
We just haven't noticed yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sjf4ELVeX8

@ Peter P,

That is so funny. Thanks for the laughs. I think I'll buy a t-shirt to wear to work.

From the 2020 site:
In 2006, a large part of the U.S. population stands ready to pull the plug on Squanderville.

Maybe I'm just being cynical here... but what crack is the guy smoking. 2006?

Exurbs are still the rage.

The inflation calculator I just tried said:

What cost $20,000 in 1977 would cost $68,425.49 in 2006.

$68k... that would just barely be 10% these days.

Hurray for looser lending!

"A generation ago, much of New York’s middle and some of its upper class were departing for the suburbs. Today, many empty nesters are returning, which, together with the city’s strong attraction for young college grads, artists, media workers and other members of the sought after “knowledge economy,” have revitalized life in town."

Yeah I think I'll sell my house in Jersey for 1M and buy one of those 4 bedrooms in Manhattan for 7M.

Hurray for looser lending!

Did you intentionally misspell "loser?" :)

@ MrBubble Says,

I'm with Jim S. on the China thing. I don't believe china will liquidate US dollar holdings but simply slow or stop the accumulation of new pieces of US Federal Reserve notes. This will be more than enough to through things into chaos!

"“It’s an absolute fact that people want to live here. That keeps housing prices high. If it wasn’t for the demand, prices would drop,” said Richard Calhoun, real estate broker and owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose."

LOL! Oh the humanitity of it!!!!

Hm… Silicon Valley attractions. Let’s see…

" Washington DC has the Smithsonian -
we have the San Jose Museum of Art "

LOL! I been here for a long time .. but frankly we suck when you look at weekend activity! We had better night clubs back in the 80s then over the past 10 years 1995-2007. Few people venture outside SantaCruz boardwalk.. say a drive on Highway 1 towards Pacifica. or cut to the mountains. ....

We do get huge traffic jams in Valley Fair... We do spend and drive to the malls ... but thats pretty much it.

@ Peter P,

"For that price you can almost get a cruise condo."

Are these condos in preperation for Waterworld when Al Gore's vision becomes reality?

” Washington DC has the Smithsonian -
we have the San Jose Museum of Art ”

Someone said this, I am merely quoting:

The Middle Kingdom has Great Wall of China
We have Great Mall of the Bay Area

Are these condos in preperation for Waterworld when Al Gore’s vision becomes reality?

Probably. :)

People in NYC are sending kids to public schools again not because they have confidence in the crappy public school system, but because they cannot afford to send kids to private school, after buying a $2M condo.

I don't know of anyone in my generation who would rather send their kids to public schools, even those situated in the best public school areas. If money is not an issue, most people prefer to send kids to private schools, at least this is the case with California. Have you checked out the credentials of the public school teachers even at the best schools? Anybody in our generation with a tiny bit of aspiration and intelligence would not end up becoming a public school teacher.

Parents struggle to get into good school districts because this is the most economical way for a household with 2 or more kids.

I am more intrigued to read some housing related article dated back to 1981 and 1982 after gold and oil peaked.

It will be interesting to see how many ounces of gold it took in 1980 or 1981 to buy a nice home in, say, Portola Valley.

Parents struggle to get into good school districts because this is the most economical way for a household with 2 or more kids.

True. Renting in good school districts requires less struggle though.

I think that by 2037 the majority of us will be of Latin extraction, that coastal areas will have problems with high water more frequently than today, that we will continue to drive cars.

People who are only youngters today will believe they possess a perfect understanding of real estate and personal finance thirty years from now, and this will shape their own boom and bust cycles. The busts will take them by surprise. Someone will coin a fresh way of saying 'new paradigm'.

There will not be enough young workers to support GenX retirement.

Survivalists will begin to concentrate in urban areas.

China Disney will celebrate its 20th anniversary, and Woody Allen will awaken from his cryonic slumbers.

This you got to love! Man, 102, takes out 25-year mortgage

I think the UK financial bubble will not end pretty.

Patrick,

How about a buyers resource for buying REOs. A master list of lender links perhaps.

I am much more skeptical about UK economy than ours. Apart from money, what else do the Brits manufacture these days?

When I am doing stock research, I am still finding comfort in lots of tech stuff that we do in this country (although the mundane manufacturing processes are increasingly outsourced, perhaps justifyingly so). The key is that we crash before we start to outsource the proprietary knowledge-based stuff to China or India, and I am glad that we are on the right path. The earlier the crash, the better for us.

UK? I really can't seem to find anything the Brits can do that the rest of the world cannot, except for being the money laundry center for the Eastern European drug lords. London will end much worse than the Bay Area, at least we have the weather.

For example, when I was down in Oz, an Aussie truck salesman told me that for the 18 wheeler, we are the only source of production in the world, the Japanese and Germans only specialize in smaller trucks. What about China? No they don't have the machine tools for that, and the only source of machine tools for 18 wheelers is again from the US.

UK? I really can’t seem to find anything the Brits can do that the rest of the world cannot, except for being the money laundry center for the Eastern European drug lords.

One thing UK does NOT have: worldwide taxation. This feature alone is attractive enough for financial institutes.

The US needs to drastically reform its taxation policies.

Patrick,

You could add government links like the following;

http://www.ustreas.gov/auctions/irs/ssca_real_2080.htm

Peter P,

That is not true.

My parents live among many British retirees in Oz, and the #1 reason they departed UK was to evade the death tax. According to them, if they kick the bucket within 7 years of leaving the UK, they will need to pay IHT (inheritance tax) which starts at a very low threshold of ~200K pound. UK has one of the highest death taxes in the world, and that's the main reason why well-off Brits are leaving the country in droves, driving up property prices in Spain and Oz, apart from seeking better weather of course.

One British retiree once told me, there are only two types of people who remain in UK: the immigrant deadbeats (not even the hardworking ones, because the hardworking ones come to the US) chewing on the welfare, and the rich immigrants parking their money accumulated from politically unstable places like Russia. Every year, 200K+ Brits are emigrating (not to be confused with immigrating) to other countries.

"UK? I really can’t seem to find anything the Brits can do that the rest of the world cannot, except for being the money laundry center for the Eastern European drug lords."

Funny - at work today we were talking about the thousands of airline puts bought before 9/11 and how that profit just went over to Europe with no trace of where it went.

"Stocks Surge on Positive Housing Report...The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes rose in February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7 percent...That says people are getting mortgages, people are buying houses, people have incomes, jobs, all that good stuff," said Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "You'd never go out and buy a house if you think you're going to get laid off. Consumers are optimistic about the future, and as we all know, the consumer drives this economy."

Looks like we'll hear calls for "bottom" from the you know who's....

Peter P,

Interesting about worldwide taxation. Is the US in a minority on this, or is the practice fairly common?

Every year, 200K+ Brits are emigrating (not to be confused with immigrating) to other countries.

With a strong GBP I am not surprised.

My parents live among many British retirees in Oz, and the #1 reason they departed UK was to evade the death tax.

I should have said "worldwide income taxation for residents not domiciled in the UK."

Interesting about worldwide taxation. Is the US in a minority on this, or is the practice fairly common?

Many countries tax their residents on a worldwide basis. I think US is one of the few countries that also tax their citizens regardless of residency.

apparently the brits are NOT coming to CA. Never met one here, but 1000’s of asians of every type.

I have several friends from the UK.

#1 destination for British seniors: Spain
#1 destination for British younger than 40: Australia

I have had two British colleagues before, there are 2-3 British stores selling Marmite, Maltesers, etc in the Bay Area.

It is relatively harder for Brits to come to CA, because most of them emigrate to enhance their lifestyle. With their home equity, they can buy a big house in a decent Aussie suburb all-cash. If they come to CA, they don't get half as much upward mobility with lifestyle.

US is the ONLY country on earth that taxes its citizens AND permanent citizens on a worldwide basis regardless of their residency. Other countries don't even dare to think about the concept of taxing their PRs when the PRs are out of the country.

Gotta luv Uncle Sam.

Peter P,

I'm a little startled, then, having friends who've moved to Nice and other Mediterranean locations. It must have been a headache for them to move assets offshore (Monaco bank) - and from what you say, an annual tax burden as well.

Certainly helps to keep us at home and xenophobic... :neutral:

Now the pool of cash required to spend the first night in a new house—frequently $20,000 to $30,000—has made this sacrifice of independence a matter of necessity rather than choice.

Pretty sad that in current times most buyers can't even come up with a 1977 downpayment. What does that tell you?

It must have been a headache for them to move assets offshore (Monaco bank) - and from what you say, an annual tax burden as well.

I believe a competent tax-accountant can work to minimize the liability.

What does that tell you?

We are f#$ked.

It is going to be bumpy but the market will survive. I hope policy makers have the will and “heart” to let people fail. Destruction is part of the creation process.

This is a foreign concept to most people Peter.