patrick.net

Yeah Peter P What do you think?

Ok, so who went and elected Peter P Grand Financial Vizier of the Blogosphere?? Must be my fault, I keep hyping him as some kind of cross between Warren Buffet & Nostradamus.

Well, if you're all really that interested in reading Peter P's opinions on metals n' hedging 'n sushi 'n stuff, I recommend checking out some recent threads on this exact subject:

Not investment advice!
Death of inflation?

well, what do you think HARM

Oh, I get it... since Peter P & Randy H have already turned in for the night, now you're interested in what I have too say. Shoot, I feel like the fat girl with braces at a school dance, after all the pretty ones are all taken. :-(

Well, finance is really not my bag, hate to rent, but personally, I'm trying to keep my stash well diversified between equities (domestic & international) & bonds. I prefer low-cost ratio indexed mutual funds, like Vanguard for this reason. Having about 5-10% in metals as an inflation hedge seems to be the advice of many finance rugus out there, but any more than that --I just don't know. The metals markets are so speculative, I'd be a bit wary unless you really know what you're doing there.*

The main thing you need to watch out for in ANY bond fund, though is direct and indirect exposure to nasty MBS/CDO mortgage-derived debt. A lot of this shit is really toxic, and the fund company is not exactly going out of its way to tell you they're holding paper backed by Joe & Jill McDebtors' NAAVLPs. Look for FNM & FRE in the prospectus, plus any references to REITs (private label MBS).

*NIA

I am not sure how China can stand there and critique our system when in fact, they are experiencing something of a housing meltdown of their own. Condos in Bejing were selling for 110-150k, which given that the average resident there makes 2-3k a year means they were almost 100 times overpriced, as compared to our measly 3 times overpriced. One report shows that there will be vacant condo complexes in Bejing for years as a result.

@ hate to rent

Careful there on the precious metals. I recommend buying a few gold eagles and a few silver eagles, just to hold and ogle them. However, as an investment metals are very, very speculative and very, very volatile. By way of personal experience, I took capital losses two years running by speculating in gold. Perhaps all that proves is my own ignorance/bad luck, but as Aleksandr Solzhenitzyn said during his Nobel acceptance speech, there's an old Russian saying that translates "You'll catch on when you're tumbling down the hill."

From 'Monty Python's Contractual Obligation Album'

The world today seems absolutely crackers,
With nuclear bombs to blow us all sky high.
There's fools and idiots sitting on the trigger.
It's depressing and it's senseless, and that's why...

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They only come up to your knees,
Yet they're always friendly, and they're ready to please.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
There's nine hundred million of them in the world today.
You'd better learn to like them; that's what I say.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They come from a long way overseas,
But they're cute and they're cuddly, and they're ready to please.

I like Chinese food.
The waiters never are rude.
Think of the many things they've done to impress.
There's Maoism, Taoism, I Ching, and Chess.

So I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
I like their tiny little trees,
Their Zen, their ping-pong, their yin, and yang-ese.

I like Chinese thought,
The wisdom that Confucious taught.
If Darwin is anything to shout about,
The Chinese will survive us all without any doubt.

So, I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They only come up to your knees,
Yet they're wise and they're witty, and they're ready to please.

All together.

[verse in Chinese]
Wo ai zhongguo ren. (I like Chinese.)
Wo ai zhongguo ren. (I like Chinese.)
Wo ai zhongguo ren. (I like Chinese.)
Ni hao ma; ni hao ma; ni hao ma; zaijien! (How are you; how are you; how are you; goodbye!)

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
Their food is guaranteed to please,
A fourteen, a seven, a nine, and lychees.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
I like their tiny little trees,
Their Zen, their ping-pong, their yin, and yang-ese.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They only come up to your knees...

Totally off topic here,
But I had written a letter to my local paper about their real estate section and the dominence of articles written by real esate agents. Anyhow, the editor gets back to me, says he agrees that there was a little too much biase, and he published my comments about the general ramshackle state of the local housing boom and the effects on younger families. Kudos to him, and perhaps a few people flipping open the paper today will get a new insight. Score one for the underdog.

nomadtoons2,

Outstanding! Now this is what I call proactive! As much as I love this blog it just can't end here. I mentioned earlier about running an ad on C/L offering to "ease" the suffering of flippers/specuvestors pain. (For the record I have NO interest at these pricing levels). It might be interesting to see just how much of a response I get. Again, I never let what someone else paid for a property color my opinion of what I might pay. We need to completely re-write and re-think the way we make offers. There shouldn't be any question that the tables have turned and while I'm reluctant to call this a "buyer's market" fighting the perception that bidding wars are the standard is the first step. Good on ya!

HARM,

This is actually an EXCELLENT thread. I'll put this under "He who develops last, develops best". The Chineese are already elbow deep in MBS and to replicate what we have elected to do on their scale could have disastrous effects. In short, they have seen how NOT to do it.

You guys are the experts. I know nothing about China except that it’s kina scary to think that our financial system is being sneered at by a government that is clearly not an ideal one.

Note**. China has no grounds upon which to base credible criticisms of other governments open market functions. China utilizes not only trade barriers, punitive tariffs, and selective access to their markets, but they also practice capital sterilization. It works like this. If China were to unleash the USD reserves they have built up into their economy directly, even if they controlled the rate of conversion, they would suffer intense inflation and erosion of their competitive advantage in exports. But, they need to cycle all those USDs somehow. So they make very complicated "loans" through syndicates, of which a large amount are expected and encourage to result in defaults. But these defaults carry other quid pro quo, namely in the interest of labor stability and domestic industry protection. It's a terribly inefficient way to use their reserves, but it is less costly than inflation and loss of exports.

So if they're going to bitch about GSEs, then I say go ahead an open up a free capital market there. The worst thing that will happen here is Wal-mart will take it on the nose as they suddenly have to charge much higher prices for their products, and probably use more domestic suppliers. CSR minded consumers will be happier. Just people who have their standard of living based upon access to low cost goods will be upset.***

** I am by no means an expert
*** OK, there are lots more effects, but I'm stylizing my comments for effect. One effect would be a dramatic evaluation of the USD.

I just love that the media has moved from spin to outright lies.

The National Association of Realtors reported existing homes sold at an annual rate of 6.91 million in February, up from a revised 6.57 million pace in January. The 5.2 percent rise was the biggest gain since a 5.9 percent jump in February 2004.

From MSNBC

Sales of new homes plunged by in February, while the median price of a new home dropped for the fourth straight month, providing fresh evidence that after five years of record setting sales, the nation’s once-booming housing market is cooling off.

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 10.5 percent last month -- the largest amount in nearly nine years and the second straight monthly drop.

So which is it? Sales up or sales down? Prices up or prices down?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one was new homes and the other was existing homes. The only reason for the jump is that the rate of sales was so LOW in Jan. So, yes, they are playing the game of psychological sttistics...literally twisting the data to fit their scenario.

Linda in La La Land,

I think X was referring to the WAY it was "portrayed". I actually had to toggle back and forth between a couple of different articles to make sure I had read it correctly (due in large part to cold medications). As SQT said, the avg. joe sixpack probably won't go to those pains.

what is your take on precious metal. do you think that there is already a bubble in metal. I know nothing about metal. it just seem like real inflation is going to kill cash and there is no other places..

Honestly, I have no idea. Precious metal is only a belief system, just like fiat currency is a belief system. It is all about mass psychology. However, if and when the credit/housing bubble goes bust, will people go for something with more _perceived_ safety?

Note to Randy H, Robert Cote, etc.,

Let me repeat:

IN NO WAY DO I FEEL THAT RED CHINA WITH ALL ITS ANTI-COMPETITIVE, ANTI-FREE MARKET CORRUPTION, GOVERNMENT MONOPOLIES, PROTECTIONISM, LACK OF RESPECT FOR HUMAN AND PROPERTY RIGHTS, ETC., ETC. IS IN ANY POSITION TO BE CRITICIZING THE U.S. NOR AM I ADVOCATING MODELING OUR HOUSING OR FINANCIAL MARKETS AFTER CHINA'S.

Like I already said to Owneroccupier,

"This is why I was so shocked by this article and thought it deserved notice. Like I said, the article just struck me as so bizarro and comically ironic. Here I’ve been criticizing the GSEs for creating systemic risk (and for their “too big to fail” implicit taxpayer guarantees) here for months. And then the LAST country I’d ever expect to agree with me does (indirectly anyway).

Note the comments about Sudan & Saudi Arabia? Comedy/irony/satire… get it?"

SFWoman,

I have heard more than a few similar observations from those in the know regarding China. I know that the IBs, PEs, and VCs are all recruiting heavily for financial talent to work in Shanghai often with a large SF component. I also know that the pay is astronomical. They are extremely selective about who they put into such roles though. Fluency in Mandarin and English, command of Chinese business culture, and usually Chinese ethnicity are usually required and non-negotiable. I love reading the open positions on glocap.com where they try to artfully signal that they will only consider ethnic Chinese for these positions. Usually it's veiled as something like (on the questionnaire you have to fill out to apply) "What are your specific family ties to mainland China?"

Shit, has everyone here lost his sense of irony/humor??

HARM,

It's all good. I was just trying to spout my typical "don't worry about China too much" diatribe before people launched into the typical doomsday predictions for the US economy. I do find great tragic comedy in China's posturing. However, it is probably timed to coincide with Congress' annual "beat up the RMB peg" theatre.

her irony/humor

@newsfreak,

Ahh... the old "which gender do I use" pronoun issue. That's the problem with English --there's no truly gender neutral singular pronoun, aside from the awkward (and inappropriate) "its", or "their", his/her, s/he. The rule when I was in grammar school was to always use the male pronoun, but that was back during prehistory/pre-PC.

Oops --forgot "one's".

Freddie Mac CFO resigns, shares fall
Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:26 AM ET

By Ed Leefeldt
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Martin Baumann, the respected chief financial officer of Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), has resigned less than three years after taking the job at the second-largest U.S. mortgage funding company, which is still recovering from an accounting scandal.

On March 10 Freddie Mac said it would delay until May the release of its quarterly and full-year financial results in order to implement an accounting change. It said it would hold a conference call with investors on March 30 to discuss this.

Japan is certainly doing some interesting things, and politically they are unaligned with either India or China. They also have an interesting relationship to Israel, as having almost no muslim demographic.

Best beef in the world too! Their seafoods are also top notch.

you Kalis care obsessed with food. I have no such obsesssion. As long as it was grown by mexicans, its ok.

Actually, it is just me.

The main reason Japan has better food in general is that they are willing to pay premium for quality.

what about Bacon Avocado? MARINA IS PRIME.

How much bacon avocado can you eat? Two portions and you are probably sicked-out.

Food (meals) should be designed to leave you in a balanced and harmonic state. So lobster-and-watercress is probably a better idea. Prawns-and-grapefruit should be great too.

DinOr
Yes, I was clear as to what Surfer X was saying. And I agree with him...the realtors twist stats to the point that their message essentially becomes a lie. Damn them! Scoundrels!
Yes, the realturds suck and are contributing the demise of the recent home purchaser by weaving lies about what is really happening.
BTW, Surfer X, some of your posts in the past are my favorite posts on this blog. I love how you tell it like it is...as crudely as you want...no holds barred rants. The world needs more of that...The God awful honest truth. And the outrage :)

but will April be the cruelest month?

Unreal estates,
Under the brown fog of a spring noon.

@Linda in LA-LA-LAND

I'm actually 37% less offensive in person.

All the hype about Iranian Oil Bourses was for nothing. I read they have postponed it as part of their 5 yr plan to somewhere in the middle of this year and that they wont start trading oil but something else. Seems like all the threatening has finally paid off, damn iranians without proper back bones. I wanted to see how it would have played out when all the other countries start to dump their dollar reserves for Euros but then there are not enough Euros to go around. Will have to be a tight demand supply chain.
Also read Germany and China is in surplus while US is in deficit and thats how the balance sheet is balanced all over the world. No wonder so many BMW's and Mercs on the road and Walmarts springing up like crazy.

@SFWoman,

Why do you hate Amerika?

HARM, are you suggesting that SFWoman is a "fifth columnist"? :-O

@Peter P,

No, not all. Perhaps I didn't express my thoughts clearly. I just feel that unpatriotic people like her are destroying the social fabric of this country --that's all. Sorry for any confusion. ;-)

HOMO AMERICANUS: therefore more food means it will be more harmonic.

I have this "never-ending meal" idea in mind. If we carefully size the portion and time the arrival of each course, an infinite meal can become a possibility. Of course, there needs to be bathroom and napping breaks between courses.

No, not all. Perhaps I didn’t express my thoughts clearly. I just feel that unpatriotic people like her are destroying the social fabric of this country –that’s all. Sorry for any confusion.

Oh no! What are we going to do?

Fortunately, work will make us free. ;)

@Hymie,
I am not good at stocks either but when you say you are dumping stocks - you mean you are selling them at cheaper price than what you bought it for but there has to be someone out there to buy it at that cheaper price - or else how are you selling it ? So there is someone out there that thinks that that stock has some value at that cheap low price and will buy and hold on to it till it increases in value.
So stocks and RE are the same.

Of course real estate can only go up. Are you attempting to destroy everything we stand for? They make no more land.

Right. I am glad that you see the light. Every bubblehead is a fifth columnist. ;)

This is already happening. Have you eaten at MM (Michael Minna) in the St. Francis?

I will try...

Is it better than Gary Danko's and/or Silks? But I believe most tasting menus last only a few hours. Perhaps we need to introduce multi-day tasting menus.

@Davis_renter,

Out of moderation.

I just love this double-speak

California had more unsold homes in February than at any other time in the past eight years, as sales of existing houses slowed further with rising mortgage rates and high prices, according to a report released on Thursday.

"There are a lot of people who can't afford to buy at today's prices," said John Burns, an Irvine, California-based consultant to home builders. "It looks to me like the market is headed for a soft landing."

Ok, lets shift the order a bit,

The inventory of unsold homes rose to a 6.7-month supply last month. "There are a lot of people who can't afford to buy at today's prices," said John Burns, an Irvine, California-based consultant to home builders. California had more unsold homes in February than at any other time in the past eight years, as sales of existing houses slowed further with rising mortgage rates and high prices. "It looks to me like the market is headed for a soft landing."

No actually it looks like your soon to get your ass handed to you.

-your
+you're

SFWoman, do you know of a good place to have High Tea in the city?