patrick.net

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Malcolm, you summarized our state of affairs in the most succinct manner ever.

If you read the book you know what that means.

Something tells me you've read it.

Tempting but no. Wastes too much fuel. Even if I had the money for a corporate jet, I hope I will choose to fly commercial.

Really? Even if I just miss the mark for deserving a corporate jet I will get one using a voodoo loan. :)

Too bad I miss the mark so much that even moderm innovate financing cannot help me. :)

You don't need a loan. It is expensive per hour but you can buy time on those jets. If you can find some enlightened friends to split the cost it starts approaching the higher end of commercial fares.

Maybe Peter P can befriend Martha Stewart...

I wonder if she is a nice person in reality.

You don’t need a loan. It is expensive per hour but you can buy time on those jets. If you can find some enlightened friends to split the cost it starts approaching the higher end of commercial fares.

I know. Even if you give me one right now I probably cannot afford to fly in it.

But I will sell it and buy 30 shitboxes in Cupertino just to reignite the spring bounce. :twisted:

If the NASDAQ peaked at ~4500 and was down to ~1500 two years after the peak how did you recover so fast

Well part of it is that my net worth wasn't really that big in 2000. I was broke, actually negative net worth in 1993, when I graduated. My GI Bill had run out and I took some student loans. But by 1997 they were paid off. I had seen a number of my friends hit the dotcom lotto, so I tried, too. After my company went public in 1999, I just prayed that the bubble would stay inflated long enough for me to cash out and it just barely did.

But I had not idea what to do with my new found "wealth" since no one in my family invests. They are all either poor, or civil servants, like teachers and social workers, and count on defined benefit plans to take care of them in retirement. My dad even taught me growing up that the stock market was just like Las Vegas and just as stupid. But I have always been an autodidact, so I just decided to teach myself how to invest. Smart Money U really helped a lot, at least it got me to diversify. That is why I only lost 1/2 when the stock market melted down, instead of 90% like most of the people I know.

Then in March 2003 I cashed everything out to buy the duplex I own know. I thought long and hard about putting the rest into savings, but by then I had been reading The Economist for a few years and decided to take their advice and invest in emerging markets. So the housing bubble and the Brazilian, Singaporian, and Russian stock markets more than brought it all back. Check out the five year chart for EWZ and PBR.

I guess a few of you are pretty aggressive investors: I had no idea FAB invested in hedge funds. I thought he just bought apartment buildings. I figured Randy H invested agressively, since he is a professional. But most of the people here are very negative about the economy and spent all their time thinking about how they are going to survive the next Great Depression. Putting all your money in CDs is never going to get you into the house of your dreams (or prepare you for retirement, for that matter).

Peter, marketing people hate guys like you. You take the fun out of the sales pitch because you actually ask 'what is the upkeep?'

I'll take her over Rachel Ray any day. I can see me getting friendly with Martha Stewart. We would viciously cackle over other people's cake decorating disasters and abuse the help when I find the sweet peas were not properly conditioned prior to arrangement.

I gotta say, I used to work right next to Palomar Airport, and those big shiny Gulfstreams flying in and out of the place sure make a guy daydream.

$20 - $40 per head for a nice sushi meal is more than reasonable.

Just remember that we are approximately 1000 miles from the ocean. :)

Some of the best fish I have ever had was at Fish Market in Santa Clara. Knock it on the head, fry it up, put it on my plate. Why can't all fish be that fresh?

Although the smoked river trout here is to die for. All the water is from snowmelt at 14,000 feet or more, all the fish caught before 8,000 feet in crystal clear streams. And our city water is absolutely excellent, too.

Did I mention that the smoked trout nearly melts in your mouth? :o

I either have the Austin Powers flying shag pad vision, or I'm a white gangsta rapper with the Eminem getup.

http://www.gulfstream.com/

Peter, marketing people hate guys like you. You take the fun out of the sales pitch because you actually ask ‘what is the upkeep?’

I actually do ask car salesman about the total cost of ownership. That is the most important number, right?

I gotta say, I used to work right next to Palomar Airport, and those big shiny Gulfstreams flying in and out of the place sure make a guy daydream.

Yep. Daydreams are good. They exercise the right side of your brain.

I was playing golf in Oakland (Metropolitan?) and private jets were making approaches over my head non-stop. They were radiating: real people do not fly commercial.

Looks like the uber-rich is opting got BBJs or larger jets though. (Think GOOG and 767)

I can see me getting friendly with Martha Stewart.

I will even paint my apartment green.

Warm green or cool green?

I will really know I've made it when I don't automatically go to Southwest.com for travel even though they are the poster child company for a logistics guy like me. Southwest, and Toyota are above criticism.

I find United tends to have the cheapest flights for my routes. Plus, now I have enough frequent flier miles for a first class round trip ticket to Australia.

That's on my list of places to go. United is sometimes the best deal to Hawaii. That will be a nice trip for you especially with the extra leg room.

Hey Bap33, I am also an NRA member, if it makes you feel any better. I support all of the Bill of Rights, not just the 1st Amendment.

We were on an ATA flight to Maui and had to turn back for an emergency landing. Oh that was fun!

Malcom

Thanks for the clarification. I just go by what my lawyer tells me, which is generally how to not get into trouble.

Your info was mostly right, I just thought the 4/5ths rule was interesting and gives you a benchmark to help cover your butt.

Most employers just worry about the overt appearance of discrimination, and don't understand the statistics part, or they then overcompensate and worry about getting rid of someone who really should get fired but out of fear they become a fixture. These baby boomers who used to think they were all that are the worst. Those guys get into a company sit around and get paid well, and you just can't dislodge them.

I just saw a post office mailbox painted as R2D2. That is awesome!

The Clintonites more fiscally responsible than the Bushies ---- Yes, but the Republican Congress curtailed much of the spending.
Today the current Republicans and Democratic congress have not been fiscally responsible. Bush has not been a smaller goverment republican.

As for the 3200 dead... thats a few people compared to what has been acheived so far. 3200 is nothing to complain about.

Prop 13 is a great law. As a homeowner you can easily predict next years property tax bill. Few other states allow for that. Good savers are being taxed out of their homes in other states. Our problem is liberal spending polices. And yes, many liberals from the east coast have a agenda, even in the work place. The ones I meet are always pushing some way to change what people think... Social Engineering... I just laugh !

I believe in God, not man.

If Bap33 was born in Iran rather than in the US, one could easily imagine him/her being an active member of El-Quaeda. Identical mindset.

Space Ace,

Prop 13 is a great law.

It will be interesting to see the reaction if the Real Estate market in California grinds down and down for a decade like Japan. I would anticipate some long-time homeowners getting very antsy about the fact that their property taxes continue to rise; especially if they're HELOC'ed up the kazoo.

(And if you want a real WAG, if CA suffers a fiscal crisis I could imagine high popular support for rolling back Prop 13 with respect to non-first homes and corporately owned dwellings, while leaving it alone for first homes owned by natural persons. Sure would be some lobbying bucks against this one, though.)

Prop 13 has been around since 1978 .. since then we had 2 other Real Estate Bubbles. RE prices fell 35% in 1991. Prop 13 still remained untouched.
Why to is dislike Prop 13 and favor higher taxes. Do higher taxes solve problems? Actually we did suffer a financial crisis, and we fired the Governor.

Gotta read Herb Greenberg's article in WSJ weekend edition! He quotes CPA's, insurance brokers, and divorce attoneys who have great anecdotal insights on how real estate is effecting even very well off clients.

I don't have an online sub, and I read the article at Borders so I can't quote verbatim, but the CPA talks about his amazement at how many of his fairly well-to-do clients financial situations are in shambles, how they refi'd three years in a row leading to doubling and tripling of their mortgages. The insurance guy talks about how starting in 2004 his clients would call to switch coverage from their Honda Civic to BMW's and Mercedes and ask about what if their new Rolex gets lost. The divorce attorney talks about numerous people in the real estate industry (brokers, realtors, builders) coming to him in the past 6 months.

do any of you geniuses now where a housing blog can be found? just curious...

Brand Says:

You know, I’m not a gun nut. I don’t even own a gun. But if everybody in Columbine had been packing heat, that siege would have lasted 10 seconds.

oh right, that would have been a pleasant scenario. it must be nice living in a clint eastwood movie while calling it 'modernity'.

Kids huddled under tables in the library, as the gunmen walked around and shot each of them in turn, at their leisure.

These were not 'gunmen' but other kids shooting their peers, due to getting the wrong messages from a wacked out society. These were easily influenced, immature kids, who still found it frighteningly easy to get hold of a supply of deadly weapons.

And you know what? There are gun laws here. Gun laws didn’t stop Columbine. Because those killers got the guns illegally, and built their own pipe bombs, and planned a murder spree.

They got the guns 'illegally' in a country where it's easy to get guns. (There's a leaching effect between states when laws differ.) Hence, it's illegal in Australia now to possess anything much beyond a single-shot rifle (with proper licensing), and now illegal to carry a knife on your person with a blade longer than 2". You will find it hard to steal guns even from 'collectors' as a result.

'Pipe bombs' are not going to do anywhere near the damage that firearms will. I've never heard of a pipe bomb siege of a school, btw.

Bottom line: while you have massive domestic production of guns, a 'gun culture' and easy availability, you will continue to have school and shopping mall massacres.

First off, the second amendment is meant to protect the American people from their own government.

So why didn't you marching on them concerning Iraq, or Afghanistan, or interference in South America, or Vietnam, or over lax regulation of mortgages?

in fact, the 2nd amendment was put forward by massachusetts as an amendment to the bill of rights, in the interests of 'raising a militia' in full, presumably to see the British off if they ever came back. it doesn't say to turn them on the govt anywhere in the bill of rights.

The nature of govt now is that you will never be able to oppose them with your peashooters and cockamamie ideas, you will just keep shooting each other and living in fear while the upper echelons laugh at you and exploit you senseless economically. (The Branch Davidians tried it in Waco, appropriately named.)

In the history of the world, there is lots of precedent for governments rolling over their own unarmed citizens.

Like in the 1970s protests concerning Vietnam, yes. Apart from putting down peaceful demonstrations in the 60s and 70s, you won't see tanks rolling over civilians in the First World.

And worldwide you can say that same story hasn’t played itself out in the timespan of the United States of America.

These are the big, sweeping ideas and generalisations that the pollies love people to hold to keep them in ignorance and fear. A moment's sensible thought should indicate there are substantial differences between western europe, the 'white British Commonwealth' and the US as 1st-world, democracy-loving countries with strong individual rights, and everywhere else.

Our forefathers were conscious of the possiblity that a despot would come to power even in a Republic.

Like George Bush I and II or Ronald Reagan? Well, time for another assassination attempt in the best American tradition... After RR, it's clearly not only the peaceful Democrats like JFK who get done away with...

Indeed, the U.S. Republic was modeled heavily off Greece and Rome, and that very event happened in Rome when emperors got out of hand.

right... hmm.... do you really think so? do we need another 1,000 words on that?

Space Ace,

Please go to the nearest Army recruiting station and sign up. If you're too old, go as a contractor.

I have friends whose lives I value a lot more than yours. If you could keep even one of them out of Iraq or Afganistan, that's a start. If everyone who says Iraq is a great thing joins and everyone in Iraq who doesn't want to be there is home. I see a win-win.

They joined to get money for college and because they thought their government wouldn't waste their lives for nothing. And waste of lives for nothing is exactly what they think Iraq is; is exactly what I call starting a war on false evidence, starting a full scale civil war, destabilizing a sensitive region, imprisoning and torturing the natives as suspected terrorist,and creating by many measures the most corrupt and violent society on Earth.

Last night I gained respect for Bap33. I cannot say the same for you.

azrob,

Sorry. It's the weekend and this blog's never been good about being housing 24/7. You can bring up a housing topic and see if you can shift the conversation. Or you can go to Ben Jones's blog, they're much more on message there.

BTW, something like 80 or 90% of CA's budget is tied up in nondiscretionary spending, largely due to passed proposition measures. Those measure pretty much remove the legislature and governor from resolving the budget crisis. All your governator did was issue a lot of bonds to delay the day of reckoning.

It's not the liberal carpetbaggers doing the social engineering, Californians do it to themselves during each election cycle.

theotherside,

Las Vegas and South Florida are growing [population] at two to three times the national rate, so it's no surprise that their home prices have been appreciating rapidly.

What was true in May 2005 might not be true today. ;)

@Cindy: ...true victims of fraud, e.g. where there was forgery

I would say not even then. We're paying a real estate attorney to help with a transaction. When the time comes to process the actual mortgage paperwork, she gets a copy to clear, we notarize a copy (I'm going to insist upon notarizing every single page) and put it into a safe, then the mortgage company will get a nice phone call and letter from us after taking possession of the paperwork asking for a copy for verification "that our respective copies of paperwork agrees with each other", and the mortgage broker will know the extra steps we are adding. It would take collusion on a very unlikely scale to perpetrate fraud. If newbie first time home buyers like us know to do this, and I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer (just a hard worker), then I would say the bar for proving fraud should be very high indeed.

Yes, we are buying at this time, in the very beginning of the bubble implosion. In Austin. An old house on a quarter-acre lot, 3BR/2BA, more than 2000 sf, inside the center of town (biking distance from work for one of us, the other works from home). 14% below Zillow, $2K (two thousand) above county tax assessment. No realtors on either side (we asked around a neighborhood mailing list if anyone was planning to sell in our area as a last desperate move before looking at more rentals, and it turns out a next door neighbor had just separated and was planning to pull up stakes). 3.33 X gross annual income. Straight, conventional, 30 year fixed at 5.875% under a 815 Fair Isaac credit score, 20% down; it is the only debt we will carry until it is discharged (we're going to plow all surpluses into paying it off as quickly as possible; if my business simply runs at its current level instead of continuing its growth, we could be done in five years). Developers have been pulling old houses out by the foundations in our neighborhood for 87% of the purchase price and slapping up glued-together McMansions (we saw the sausage being made) for 34% more of the purchase price on lots 31% smaller.

We're not moving from this house for at least 15 years, and we're never selling it, so as far as I'm concerned, I'm paying a PITI psf per month before tax deduction of $1.24 (after tax deduction, according to the RentvsBuy spreadsheet Randy hosts, is $0.95 psf per month). After tax deduction, PITI is $50 more per month over rent. The PITI psf per month figures go down if we pay it off quickly according to plan, and slice off a big chunk of the interest payments. From my perspective, I'll be paying about what I would expect to pay while renting, and I'm treating it as a pure expense for shelter and not an investment, so if housing prices in this area crash by even 90%, it simply means I pay less property taxes.

Someone in the same neighborhood just paid $15,000 more than what we put under contract for a house that is half as small on a lot a third smaller. That house was a lot more polished, but by the time I pay off the original note and save up one HaHa in cash for the purpose, I figure we'll have a lot of leverage to negotiate for an extensive remodeling job and get more bang for our buck. By then, the housing crash should be well under way and only the strongest contractors will have survived the bloodbath.