0
0

Jobs, jobs, jobs


 invite response                
2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   37,966 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

« First        Comments 141 - 180 of 444       Last »     Search these comments

141   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 8:49am  

eburbed,

That is whacked! You're right though, I'm sure they drive more than most of us.

Thanks to all who posted re: the BA job market. It's helpful to me in order to get a better understanding as to where the tech arena is at from an "in the trenches" perspective. Many thanks,

DinOR

142   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 8:50am  

Bork, they are moving people into position and gearing up the S-1 registration. Some people are being asked to leave. Buts thats all.

It was salesforce.com that bruised Siebel badly. I expect Netsuite to
give many other small- mid-tier ERP vendors an equal bruising..
Let me tell you buying salesforce at 11 was the best investment I made.
Im out now and happy as a canary. Before you invest make sure you read
the S-1 cover to cover and word for word -- several times over.

143   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 8:55am  

HARM

There are a set of principles which guide Objectivism. Libertarianism is a loose collection of convenient interpretations of the market which serve the goals of those calling themselves Libertarians.

http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=faq_index#obj_q3

emphasis added

Does Objectivism support Libertarianism?
"For the record, I shall repeat what I have said many times before: I do not join or endorse any political group or movement. More specifically, I disapprove of, disagree with and have no connection with, the latest aberration of some conservatives, the so-called 'hippies of the right,' who attempt to snare the younger or more careless ones of my readers by claiming simultaneously to be followers of my philosophy and advocates of anarchism. Anyone offering such a combination confesses his inability to understand either. Anarchism is the most irrational, anti-intellectual notion ever spun by the concrete-bound, context-dropping, whim-worshiping fringe of the collectivist movement, where it properly belongs."
[Ayn Rand, "Brief Summary," The Objectivist, September 1971]

"Above all, do not join the wrong ideological groups or movements, in order to 'do something.' By 'ideological' (in this context), I mean groups or movements proclaiming some vaguely generalized, undefined (and, usually, contradictory) political goals. (E.g., the Conservative Party, which subordinates reason to faith, and substitutes theocracy for capitalism; or the 'libertarian' hippies, who subordinate reason to whims, and substitute anarchism for capitalism.) To join such groups means to reverse the philosophical hierarchy and to sell out fundamental principles for the sake of some superficial political action which is bound to fail. It means that you help the defeat of your ideas and the victory of your enemies."
[Ayn Rand, "What Can One Do?" Philosophy: Who Needs It]

144   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 8:58am  

The reality is that Libertarianism sells better than Objectivism. Similarly, freedom of choice sells better than individual responsibility

145   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 19, 9:04am  

Simcha Says:

> First time poster, long-time lurker here.

Glad we were able to get you to post…

> OK, I am a psychotherapist intern working with 18-25
> year-old homeless youth in the East Bay.
> I don’t see any problem with holding onto my job and
> sadly, I see growth in this industry.

My best friend’s sister works with 14-25 year-old kids (mostly girls) who have homes but have major problems (usually related to either rich controlling parents who freak when they are not perfect or rich hard working parents who are so busy with their careers that they would not even notice if the kid died)…

> 18-25 year-olds who are just starting out in life here in the
> BA CANNOT pay for even the basic expenses at entry-level
> jobs. Also, even a rich area like the BA needs burger-flippers,
> janitorial services, manual laborers, etc. and these people
> certainly can’t afford the cost of living here.

It is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)...

> These 18-25 year-olds end up homeless and if they’re lucky
> they end up in our transitional housing program so that they
> can save up for the down payment on an apartment and furniture…

I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…

> We have a vast underclass of 18-25 year-olds growing up in the
> BA who cannot afford to live on their own even when they are
> gainfully employed. Even the smart, talented, and educated ones
> aren’t able to make it because housing is so ridiculously out of
> reach for someone entering the workforce.

It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area, but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…

146   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:05am  

"Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive… "

Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.

Fact is many people did afford homes in the 1970s. My dad was a carpenter who made enough to pay for mortgage and then some.
The same is true with the mid 80s and mid 90's. You just got to learn
to stay away from the land sharks ( service industry ) that is the big wallet bitter.

There is too much hype in the Bay Area. Big difference is we didnt have what I call "Google Groupies" running around. If you believe its expensive then you will except the prices and overpay. Just say no!

"Anyone see Google’s earnings? Holy cow."

Reminds me of a few B2B companies of 1999 (Gone) and early days at Intel , Apple (had some bad days), Tandem (Gone) and Silicon Graphics (Semi-Gone), Sun (Life Support). Goog will have its day too.

147   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:08am  

"It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area,"

At the present moment only... that will pass too.

"but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…"

Exactly, Its good to develop sound budget and savings plan not to mention patients. It builds confidence and security. Just avoid the Service Industry like (Strip Joints) ...

148   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:09am  

You got it Bork... Good luck

149   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:13am  

Thanks, Randy.

"Objectivism" seems to be a better description of the prevailing political philosophy of most regular contributors here, incl. me. Unfortunately, there is no "Objectivist Party" capable of mobilizing like-minded Americans disgusted with the corrupt two-party dualopoly, but also not willing to embrace socia1ism. The closest thing so far still seems to be the Libertarian Party, despite including a significant % of extreme right-wing narcissist/anarchists among the ranks.

150   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 9:16am  

HARM

An "Objectivist Party" is antithetical. There used to be (still may be) a close adherent in the Natural Law Party. It actually outpolled the Libertarian Party at it's peak (because they had a strong presidential candidate...have you ever really looked in the National Libertarian candidates? I wouldn't have these guys walk my dog usually).

151   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:17am  

it is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)…

Ironically I'd say the opposite. I think it definitely is a lot tougher to be younger today than in the past. Among other things, college fees/tuition has gone up almost as much as... well... housing.

The tuition at the school i went to went up 5-7% year over year after I graduated. I'm pretty sure that wasn't limited to my school.

Salaries have also definitely not kept up with real inflation (e.g. the inflation number that includes food and energy)

I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…

I used to feel the same way, until I spent a day volunteering with the United Way. That's when I learned that there's two classes of Homeless people: Visible and Invisible.

Visible: the stinky psychotic people you see in Downtown Palo Alto, Santa Cruz, and Van Ness in SF. They're also chronically homeless. Apparently these represent only a small segment of homeless people. (The crazy male population.)

Invisible: Women and children. There's a lot of these but they're in shelters and otherwise taken care of. It also may be temporary - 2 months at a time, etc. Apparently, this is the vast majority.

What you see is the tip of the iceberg - and ironically the unhelp-able portion. What you don't see is the problem.

152   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:23am  

Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.

Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle.

Check out the study I did here:

http://www.burbed.com/2006/12/25/heres-your-christmas-gift-20-savings-on-groceries/

Why green beans, ginger, milk, and grape jelly are all 40% more expensive here than they are in Seattle boggles my mind.

153   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 9:24am  

Invisible: Women and children.

Where is the man?

154   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:25am  

El Jefe,

I hear what you're saying about the Bay Area "trustafarians", but I don't think those are specifically the kinds of people to whom Simcha was referring. I think he was saying is that, surviving on your own is extremely hard now even for young people who are willing to forgo 'luxuries' and live spartan lifestyles. And this reality jives with my own personal experience. Hell, I left CA 14 years ago and probably would have stayed gone if a family crisis hadn't forced me back. I'm actually fairly contented with where I am now (renting in a nice neighborhood), but am keeping my options open.

155   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:26am  

Why green beans, ginger, milk, and grape jelly are all 40% more expensive here than they are in Seattle boggles my mind.

Dude, "sunshine premium".

156   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 9:28am  

The cost of living difference in $ is enormous between the BA and other areas. It costs the better part of 50% more here than where much of my family lives in Ohio.

But the purchasing power parity is about the same. Therein lies the confusion.

Actually, people in rural Ohio are worse off, not better, because they have to buy things that are nationally priced on the margins -- meaning assuming our inflated dollars.

157   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:29am  

hmm, randy h. is converting me to objectivism by degrees...

interestingly, 'libertarianism' seems to be mostly an american phenomenon, the very small number of people i've encountered here who claim to espouse it (mainly from the net) seem to have just gotten an extremely unreflexive wash-over effect from the US.

while i agree with randy about the nuttiness of the extreme libertarian case as it is often presented, ironically *some* libertarian ideals have strongly influenced political discourse and political freedoms everywhere over the last couple of centuries (to our benefit), concerning our present-day understandings of one's 'freedom' to live without excessive state interference. for instance, you can no longer be shanghai'ed into the Navy against your will just by being found drinking in a pub in a coastal town...

158   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:30am  

"Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle"

My grocery bill is around 35-40 a week, with discount. Its all noise level for a single person. For families that may be different. Since you like the Green stuff. I suggest a trip to the farmers markets on weekends.

159   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:30am  

It costs the better part of 50% more here than where much of my family lives in Ohio. But the purchasing power parity is about the same.

Randy H,

You mean excluding housing, right?

160   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 9:31am  

"Dude, “sunshine premium”

Go to safeway and buy Grapes from Chile! Hum!!!!
WTF, in California, of all things.

161   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 9:32am  

Am I an objectivist, a libertarian, a sophist, or just a jerk?

162   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:33am  

hmm, randy h. is converting me to objectivism by degrees…

Hallelujah!! All hail Randy H!

163   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:33am  

Am I an objectivist, a libertarian, a sophist, or just a jerk?

Who says you have to choose? ;-)

164   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:40am  

the irony is that the rosy picture of idyllic life presented by the libertarians closely resembles the stated desired outcome of 'true' communism, of independent, autonomous small communities beholden to no-one, where the state has withered away, and people are no longer alienated by their work and power relations in a capitalist colossus from themselves, each other, the nature of their own work, and so on. somehow, some kind of freaky space-time curvature brings the 'far right' into contact with the 'far left'. this is also the anarchist-communist nexus. try telling the average hairy-chested libertarian they are working towards the communist ideal...

165   jtfrankl   2007 Apr 19, 9:43am  

I am a software engineer for a semiconductor capital equipment company. We are in a great market position, but cost cutting abounds. We seem to be laying off ppl in dribs and drabs- 4-5% last fall, a "small", unpublished number last week. Meanwhile, there is hiring in India and elsewhere is Asia. I feel fairly secure given my somewhat non-generic skillset, but at the same time, I am keeping my eyes open for opportunities. I would HATE to be in manufacturing here- feel bad for those people.

I thought it was interesting that BearCat mentioned Galil of all places. I worked there when it was in Mountain View. 1 mile commute- can't beat that. Good company, but I wasn't prepared to move to Rocklin. At the time, I felt like SV RE had a few more good years in it and boy was that an understatement!

166   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 9:45am  

somehow, some kind of freaky space-time curvature brings the ‘far right’ into contact with the ‘far left’. this is also the anarchist-communist nexus.

Many years ago, my dad told me, "if you go right far enough, you'll run into the far left." I was an adult before I fully understood what he meant.

167   e   2007 Apr 19, 9:46am  

“Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle”

My grocery bill is around 35-40 a week, with discount. Its all noise level for a single person. For families that may be different. Since you like the Green stuff. I suggest a trip to the farmers markets on weekends.

Actually I really like cookies. And the ones I like are 20% more here than the exact same cookies at Safeway Seattle.

I guess the cookies here are sunnier, smarter, and generally more special.

168   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 9:56am  

Marx on alienation. Admittedly, he was operating in a manufacturing society, which today, in terms of work opportunities and pay scales, most closely resembles, say, China producing goods for the West from 'globalisation' effects...

Under capitalism, workers are inevitably alienated from their own lives. That is, they do not feel part of their own lives. They are just 'going through the motions'.

Why does Marx say this? Under capitalism, a worker is constrained both physically and psychologically; he is alienated from both nature and himself (body and spirit), and from others. Under capitalism, we see the worker’s progressive intellectual and psychological “dis-integration.”

Marx notes at least five kinds of alienation:

- Alienation from nature (pollution, industrialisation, cities)
- Alienation from the body (harnessing)
- Alienation from fully human species-being (the worker has only an animal-type existence)
- Alienation from others (competition, no time to talk)
- Alienation from one’s own intellectual ability (repetitive work, constrained thought)

Maybe that's why all the people you talk to on the phone all day long sound pissed off...

169   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 10:00am  

Tommy writes :

"VMware is hiring and they are doing an IPO later this year…
Google made again a ton of money….

What more do you need in bay area? These two are enough to support our local economy for a while. VMware is guaranteed to make quite a few people rather well off. "

Oh baby! you have a lot to learn my dear boy! Come back after your 35.
A work force of mear 2,500 is hardly going to compare to a workfore of 840,000. Please grow up.

Google will have its day, just like the other "googles back in its day". VMware (buddy works there) is planning a spinoff (not bad!) because everyone from VMware is leaving and the product is flaming out. Employees dont like EMC Parent company anyway. Why did a storage company like EMC buy a SW company VM for anyway? Bad business decision more like it.

170   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 10:01am  

"Actually I really like cookies."

I suggest some local brownies during the Height Asbury Street Festival in SF later in June. Its a total buzz trip.

171   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 10:03am  

I thought VMware was doing well, and had a good product. Virtualisation is getting to be a really big deal on x86 platforms, I'm looking at converting our legacy system right now...

172   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 10:09am  

VMWare is very good, and quite an improvement over the old Ghost/reimage method. I am using it at work right now. It does have some limitations, though --mainly a few applications that don't virtualize well or require "real" access to HW.

173   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 19, 10:10am  

I am not an Objectivist for the same reason that I'm not a Scientologist.

I can't support a worldview espoused by horrible, horrible writers.

174   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 10:14am  

yeah, we can either use a VM P->V image as a disaster recovery fallback system, or else just run our legacy system entirely as a VM. The ERP runs on Oracle, I don't believe there's any HW problems with doing that, the vendor themselves do it all the time. Except for the speed benefits of spreading over multiple SCSI disk groups and RAID arrays -- that's the only issue I have with it, but for DR and legacy on a low transaction system, who cares...

175   jtfrankl   2007 Apr 19, 10:42am  

BearCat,

Web 2.0- I can relate. I love to code, but it has to be something "real". Some would say I am just a bit twiddler. To me, it's all ball bearings and motion controllers nowadays, so it was sad to see Galil and Chris King move away. At least we have managed to hold on to Phil Wood.

176   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 10:56am  

The Social Democrat welfare state of Sweden talked about producing 'selective utopias' or 'partial utopias' rather than trying to deliver some sort of socia1istic utopia all at once -- so they would target housing, or unemployment, intensively for several years, to try to improve things -- and it worked. If housing was really targeted as a social right, and taken out of the market to a greater or lesser extent, you would clean up the homelessness and the unaffordability problems all at once... Right now on the news, they are threatening pensioner renters at retirement villages with massive upticks in rent -- causing a lot of consternation. This is the problem of setting everything up as a money-making exercise for some f&cking capitalist pig at the top who thinks they have a 'right' to gouge everyone for their own wellbeing for taking the 'risk' of building a retirement village or trailer park or whatever... better off just building the housing with public money under public control and some social assurances and certainty.

177   mr beezer   2007 Apr 19, 11:23am  

@simcha
nice to hear your story,tks for sharing . Those kids are fortunate to have somebody like you as a compass
@space age
35 to 40bux a week on groceries?

would like to hear what your 21 a week meal plan is on a budget of $1.90 permeal
financial times says americans spend 6.7% of their disposable income on food and that figure surprised me

tell me if I'm a big spender on food but even cheap restaurants take 40 to feed 3 of us with tip no alcohol --ex bac ch burger/fries 8.50
crabcake swich/fries 8.50
1 caesar salads 7.50
cup of soup 3.50
2 sodas 3.50
1 water 1.50
tax 1.98
tip 6
total 40.98

and 4 that meal are you saying that I could feed simcha's client for a week or space age ?
would love to hear your dieticians meal plan for $40 a week
would also love to hear other posters tell me what they think they spend in a week to feed their families

if all of you spend just 40 a person a week for food then I now know how people live in 800k 800sq ft homes
they don't eat cookies nor drink organic milk or bottled water
or fruit vegees cereal or orange juice

hostess twinkees every meal ??

178   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 11:30am  

Food can cost more than housing for many people.

179   simcha   2007 Apr 19, 11:34am  

I think that completely socializing the housing industry would be a very hard sell in this country. I think that a better model is what has happened around the Chicago area. CHA (The Chicago Housing Authority) built big government housing projects many decades ago and put only poor people in those big buildings without any other real assistance or programs to help them change their lot. This failed miserably. The projects became crime and gang ridden and largely condemnable before they all were torn down.

The dismantiling of the housing projects in Chicago marked a major change in policy and a major shift in how the City handled its poor and homeless. The homeless problem is far from solved but there are some creative things that have been happening in the Chicago Area.

As the projects were being torn down, the people who were still living in the projects were offered section 8 housing and were moved out to suburbs and other areas of Chicago. This way they were moved to better school districts that had more money. Their children could receive better educations and live in safer neighborhoods, in general. Most people are faring better who have moved out of the projects. So, private landlords got their rent paid for by the CHA and were assured of the income. The tenants had, mostly, better housing opportunities. It was a better cooperation between the private sector and government.

The negative side of this was that the neighborhoods where the projects were (i.e. Cabrini Green) were now prime real estate. These properties were sold to private investors and they built luxury condos and apartments on the land. Thus they priced out the people who once lived in these neighborhoods forever. A very small percentage of apartments in those new neighborhoods were set aside for former poor residents. Thus these neighborhoods were gentrified. In Chicago, gentrification means moving white yuppies in and pricing all other poor people out.

Now, the city of Chicago benefits from the property taxes collected from the new property owners in these newly gentrified neighborhoods. Some of the people who were displaced were moved too far out from the City to keep their low-paying jobs. They became jobless in the far out suburbs where they were moved to. Also some of the suburbs used zoning to force only certain lower priced neighborhoods in their respective towns to take these new section 8 people being shipped out of the City. Thus some of the suburbs created new ghettos for urban poor, merely displacing the problems from the City to the suburbs... And this time, the newly arrived were woefully unprepared for what they would find there. No public transportation exists in many of these suburbs. Therefore, there is no way for some of these people to get around to go out and find work, let alone get about to go to work once a job could be found. No education was provided for the displaced people so that they could get jobs that would pay them enough to get a car so that they could get around to find work and maintain stable employment.

So, this solution wasn't perfect. It is better than the government project system that existed before though. So there's more work to be done between the private sector and the government if homelessness can be solved in this country. A more realistic solution in this country is to find a way that government and the private sector could work together to help people help themselves. This would require an organized plan to create better infrastructure, like creating better and more affordable public transportation systems (trains, buses, light rail, etc.) largely run by the government, with cooperation from businesses to train and hire poor people paying them a living wage, and for private land owners to cooperate with business and government to provide affordable housing where land owners profit and tenants benefit from housing they can afford.

This is a very tall task. It takes will, moral fiber, determination, cooperation, and hard work. These things seem to be lacking in our country today. People would rather make a quick and easy buck on markets like, say, real estate or the stock market than actually WORK together to create a just society where everyone wins.

180   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 11:41am  

The best way to solve the housing problem is to build, build, build.

We should build until there is no question that housing will be readily available in the future. The society will quickly self-organize into all kinds of neighborhood. Housing will be very affordable in some. Problem solved.

Note that if housing is scarce, higher-income people will have to move into lesser neighborhoods, driving up costs there. The result will be a metropolitan-wide ghetto like the Bay Area.

« First        Comments 141 - 180 of 444       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions