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Housing Bubble Pre-Flight Checklist


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2006 Apr 10, 7:44am   29,369 views  313 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

1. Congress enacts/President signs new Tax Code into law (1997) subsidizing real estate speculation? Check.

2. Cabal of arrogant Fed bankers/Washington politicians/Brokerage firms ignore (or actively encourage) massive Dot.com stock bubble? Check.

3. Aforementioned stock bubble imploding in Fed's/Pol's faces (2000)? Check.

4. Extreme Fed/Pol fear of damage to the rest of the economy by ruptured stock bubble and willingness to flood economy with ultra-cheap credit (to inflate new bubble)? Check.

5. Massive GSEs market intervention, allowing private mortgage lenders to shift default risk from themselves onto taxpayers, FCBs & institutional investors (using the magic of MBS/CMOs)? Check

6. Complete erosion of lending standards, thanks to Fed's easy credit + GSE's MBS/CMO mortgage risk transfer? Check.

7. Cabal of arrogant Realt-whores enforcing monopoly MLS, gaming the numbers and lobbying for federal protection? Check.

8. Public's unshakable faith in the impregnability of real estate ("it never goes down")? Check.

9. Public's complete lack of historical memory, understanding of credit bubbles, the Fed/GSEs, business cycles, etc.? Check.

10. China/Japan underwriting much of our toxic MBS/CMO debt, while secretly hoping we fall on our asses? Check.

11. International carry-trade spawning RE bubbles all over the globe, thanks to ultra-cheap $USD ? Check.

HOUSING BUBBLE, YOU ARE CLEARED FOR TAXI

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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91   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

Peter P,

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

92   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:44pm  

Got so sick of the logical inconsistency of the theory that I dropped out midway.

I used to hate eastern philosophy because of the apparent logical inconsistency. My wife (then girlfriend) called me Spock and my college roommate called me Data. Now, I look at things rather differently. :)

93   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:45pm  

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

Neither is cheap.

However, the unintended side-effect is, some of my classmates became gay, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Huh?

94   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:47pm  

"Neither is cheap."

I know, that's why I probably won't have kids.

95   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

I find that atheist are the type of people that are more likely do do the work of god. they are humanist.

True. Open-minded atheists with the sense of morality will serve humanity very well. Dogmatic atheists may not do much good.

96   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

Don't send your kid to boarding school too early. It is an entirely different beast from the usual school system.

Boarding school is like a mafia organization. The seniors bully the juniors, and since you live together in the same dorm (more beds per room compared to college), you end up being bullied 24 x7 until you become a senior yourself. Some boys may not take it so well and it may leave a scar with them in the future. Also, there is no privacy at all, not much space for self-development, because everyone spies on everyone. If you get along with your dorm mates, they will be your best friends ever throughout your life. If you don't get along with them, that will make your life a living hell.

97   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:49pm  

I never got interested enough in Western religion to study it directly. However, I still manage to know more Catholic lore than my Catholic boyfriend.

98   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:51pm  

hate to rent,

that's what the gay propaganda tells you. NO!

One can turn gay if put in a certain type of environment. I have quite a few Catholic gay friends, and I can tell you it is NOT entirely genetic.

99   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:52pm  

really, i find that both eastern an d western philosophy are equally inconsistency.

I used to be fascinated with the philosophy of logic. I have to say that the methodologies of contemporary western philosophy tend to be logically consistent.

But logic is not everything.

100   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:52pm  

Owneroccupier,

Thanks for the advice, I'll keep that in mind when and if my kids get to that age. I know a few people who went to pretty good boarding school and they seem to be okay (okay, one is bat shit crazy, but I think that's her and not her boarding school's doing).

101   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:54pm  

astrid,

I am talking about boys-only or girls-only boarding school, never went through a co-ed, so the co-ed situation may be entirely different. Also, the British system is a tad bit different from the American one.

102   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:54pm  

you can not teach someone to be gay, it is genetic….

Not necessarily genetic, buy innate.

One can turn gay if put in a certain type of environment. I have quite a few Catholic gay friends, and I can tell you it is NOT entirely genetic.

It is all in the stars.

103   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:58pm  

There is a gay phase in adolescnce for all guys, most of us grow past that, some of us get stuck there. Sexual orientation is not entirely a natural-born thing, it is also influenced strongly by your early sexual experience and sexual partner.

A boy's school is more conducive to homosexual experience for boys who are eager to explore their bodies, let me just leave it at that.

104   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:00pm  

I remember one professor say, with philosophy, you can justify anything and everything, it can be dangerous..

Did you mean statistics? :)

105   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:01pm  

"A boy’s school is more conducive to homosexual experience for boys who are eager to explore their bodies, let me just leave it at that."

Hee, anyone here seen "Another Country"? Right or wrong, that's what I think of when I think of the British public school system.

106   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:04pm  

(Then again, I also think of A Taxing Woman's Return when I think of the Japanese Yakuza, and I don't recall any white S500s in that movie)

107   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:06pm  

True. Open-minded atheists with the sense of morality will serve humanity very well. Dogmatic atheists may not do much good.

I proffer that dogmatic any-ists do not do much good, yes even including "humanists". I encounter lots of dogmatic humanist types up here in Marin. They are so dogmatic about their humanism that they seem to forget the "human" part of that ism.

108   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:06pm  

(Then again, I also think of A Taxing Woman’s Return when I think of the Japanese Yakuza, and I don’t recall any white S500s in that movie)

That movie was set in 1989. There was no S500 back then, only 500SEL. :)

109   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:08pm  

Did you mean statistics?

I had a math professor in undergrad who insisted that statistics was nothing more than black magic.

110   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:09pm  

but you can disprove on set of statistic with another.

All I know is that statistics a pretty good propaganda (spinning) device.

111   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:10pm  

I had a math professor in undergrad who insisted that statistics was nothing more than black magic.

I have to agree. Statistics is not really math.

112   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:11pm  

Come on, stop being so cynical, you all don't really believe that, do you? As long as you understand what has been done to the numbers, you should know if the calculation is good or bad. (as a none math person, I really can't tell)

113   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:11pm  

Statistics are not to be confused with probabilities, even though intro stats courses necessarily cover probabilities first.

Probabilities are mathematically consistent and abide by proofs and theorems.

Statistics are descriptive means by which we "disprove the null hypothesis". That is, we can't prove anything with stats, only disprove a default assumption.

Stats really may be a kind of evil.

114   Unalloyed   2006 Apr 10, 4:12pm  

A Realtorâ„¢ and his girlfriend are spending their first night together. He takes off his shoes and socks. His girlfriend points at his feet and asks "what happened to your feet?" He shrugs and says, "When I was a kid I had toelio." She asks "You mean polio?" He replies, "No, I had toelio." Then he takes off his slacks and she makes a face. "What's wrong with your knees?" He shrugs and answers, "When I was a teenager I had kneezles." She says "You mean measles?" He replies, "No, I had kneezles." Finally he slides off his briefs and is nude from the waist down. His girlfriend is horrified. She wails "Oh no, you had smallcocks too!

115   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:14pm  

Probabilities are mathematically consistent and abide by proofs and theorems.

Only if the underlying randomness can be ascertained.

116   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:16pm  

yes, you can manipulate the number and trick someone who don’t know into something.

but statistic is very important without it biological research or any other physical science can not move forward……

True, but statistics is just another tool in academic politics.

117   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:16pm  

I got a little further than probabilities. I took a college biology class and we had to do regressions and so forth. If I remember correctly, as long as I set the perimeters tightly enough, then the results are believable.

But in reality, if the problem ever came up, I just send the link to my boyfriend and wait for a reply.

118   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:16pm  

Stats really may be a kind of evil.

You are probably 66.6% correct.

119   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:17pm  

I'd say that's not very good.

120   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:18pm  

Only if the underlying randomness can be ascertained.

Remember there are two types of mathematical proofs, the classically reasoned type we all learned in high-school (or should have), and the "exhaustive" type where all possible disproofs are ruled out. Probabilities, like binomial distributions abide by this (although maybe they are also arrived at classically; IANAMPHD).

Theoretically, all randomness can be ascertained with enough empirical measurement.

121   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:20pm  

You are probably 66.6% correct.

But this stat is useless to me without an alpha or standard deviation and sample size, damnit!

122   Unalloyed   2006 Apr 10, 4:20pm  

I like the way engineers do proofs: "Works for n=1, works for n=2, works for all n."

123   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:23pm  

Theoretically, all randomness can be ascertained with _enough_ empirical measurement.

Well, well, well... what is moral certainty?

124   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:24pm  

I like the way engineers do proofs: “Works for n=1, works for n=2, works for all n.”

Induction is math, not statistics.

125   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:24pm  

"an alpha or standard deviation and sample size, damnit!"

But if we assume Peter P as the entirety of the evil/non-evil universe...

126   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:26pm  

But if we assume Peter P as the entirety of the evil/non-evil universe…

Huh?

127   Unalloyed   2006 Apr 10, 4:26pm  

I meant to be humorous...they jump from n=1 & n=2 to all n, without mathematical induction.

128   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:27pm  

Well, that would do away with the sample size issue.

129   Unalloyed   2006 Apr 10, 4:28pm  

Why it's called mathematical induction when it's a deductive process is a mystery to me. Didn't mean to change the subject away from chi squared distributions and what not.

130   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:28pm  

I meant to be humorous…they jump from n=1 & n=2 to all n, without mathematical induction.

It is fine if n = 2...

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