patrick.net

You have no idea how crass it sounds to someone who made a million dollars in real estate to hear someone (they are cautioning) say "it can't go down" when they buy their first house in Phoenix, AZ.
Then that person humbly says, if you believe that then real estate investing might not be for you.

Actually, I think that person says, "My advice is to leverage, leverage, leverage. Then you can be a millionaire like me!" Which is immature, but once you've gotten slapped in the face enough times by the get-rich-quick types (most of whom got extremely lucky), it's kind of fun to watch them set sail on their burning ship and give them advice on what to douse with kerosene.

Since I am not crass, and actually want to be of help to people another piece of advice to think about is the downpayment. Even if you are advancing it at 0% to him, you have just eliminated $10,000 to $15,000 per year of interest income so now even with the unrealistic numbers you can add another $1,000+ for cost of owning. I suspect you will be giving it to him from a line of credit so I suspect that will be a hard cost not just the opportunity cost. Also, you completely ignored the property taxes, add yet another $1,000 per month on a $900K house, and it is a condo, so don't forget your HOA fees. I don't live in SF, but I'll bet they are $200 per month or more.

Another approach; put the $250K in an interest bearing account, and rent the same place with a roomate on just the interest alone. :)

Brand, this scenario as she describes it almost sounds as stupid as the strawberry farmer.

BTW, $250K is more like $2,000 per month if it is borrowed with prop taxes.

No matter how you slice it this is a $5-$6 thousand dollar monthly cost. The cash flow might be different playing with terms, but it is just smoke and mirrors. Then this 'deal' has to go up 10% just to get out of it, let alone it needs to do more to actually make money.

In the end it all comes down to your beliefs, and admittedly I have crossed my own line of hypocrisy because my overall belief is that in order to get rich you must see something that others don't and that normally involves going against the general consensus.

With that said, I do believe I am qualified to render an opinion from experience, and my belief is that the fundamentals don't justify the value. My personal philosophy is to not do a deal on speculation of future increases as that is pure gambling, not investing. Now with that said, the other caveat is that the expected value of future price change has too much cost because the downside is potentially horrendous verses being at the top of a market and NEEDING a 10% gain just to walk away.

The quirks you are comfortable with can come back to bite you. Just because you call a space a bedroom in your valuation; if it doesn't meet the legal definition of a bedroom, you legally can't call it one in selling it, and a bank will not consider it in a future appraisal. Apples to apples, dust to dust.

Brand,

As a very small clarification, I believe that TOS is not the same person as MP/FR/etc. Same idea, though. I like WW's nice touch of being a "Boomer" - knowing if she's skimmed through the posts here that would likely generate animosity instantly.

I noticed that too, but boomers are people too. Even if they do have a need to be first class citizens to look down their noses at others, I am always hopeful for my fellow (wo)man. It is my hope that good people here will welcome anyone who is not overly disrespectful to others.

Skibum, you slay me. :)

I know darn well you have friends who are psychologists. I would love for you to invite them to post their opinions why boomers are the way they are. Maybe even give them pointers how to not seek happiness through materialism. Wealth is beautiful, but filling holes in your life with stuff can't be healthy.

GC, I thought that was a good point too. This isn't even a dream home though, in her own words, it has quirks, and yes this is an emotional decision but IMO the wrong emotions are at play here.

When the fundamentals are right my opinion will be totally different. It doesn't even come down to being a cheapskate or a chiseler, a commodity is only worth what it's fundamentals dictate it is worth.

I think a normal woman would be upset at the mean things said to her. Something is off.

Good luck on your entrepreneurship. Being one’s own boss is the best thing.

I've been an entrepreneur for the past 13 years. You're never really your own boss. You just get to keep most of the money. My bosses have been my clients, my customers and my investors. Not trying to be sanctimonious, but there's a difference between a lifestyle company, self-employed/sole proprietor and an investment backed entrepreneur. I have a board to answer to.

On the "it's worth what I get out of it" point: I am a strong advocate of economic utility value. Some things are worth more to some people than others. A Segway scooter isn't worth much to me, because I think they're stupid, ugly "Rascals for Boomer". But some people think they're worth thousands.

However, there is a balance between utility value and market value. Since one must ostensibly sell their home someday, they are not entirely unconcerned with market value. If you over value something too much, and later have to sell it, you can get into dire straits pretty quickly.

A Segway scooter isn’t worth much to me, because I think they’re stupid, ugly “Rascals for Boomer”. But some people think they’re worth thousands.

Randy, you have a knack for wonderful orginal imagery of a concept. :)

original; fingers a little tired, long drive today.

Some things are worth more to some people than others.

Yeah. To many, sushi is just severely under-cooked fish.

Thanks Malcolm. M figners re tred oo.

Just saw an interesting Coldwell Banker ad. Lots of open houses great time to buy. What is interesting is how all this advertising is really trying to push differentiation.
May is open house month. They are also trying to brand themselves with an open house on the web concept. I actually liked the marketing.

ww: can you explain how he will be spending only 1k a month on a $850k house even with 1k/mo rental income? please include hoa, tax, misc maintenance etc. What kind of mortgage is your son getting?

ps Unless your son already has a friend he would live with, finding a roommate that he can get along with and is reliable with rent is not that easy to find.
Just ask my buddy who's ex-roommie "borrowed" his brand new audi for a little midnight drunken beach cruise.

The house I've been bitching about for a couple months right near me here in Tam Valley went through its 4th or 5th open house today. This is the beauty that was a pocket listing for months, with all kinds of cloak and dagger shit. I found out they thought they had it sold before listing twice, but both fell through.

The house is still listed at $50K more than the owners paid about 2.5 years ago. It's nice inside. Granite, stainless, German machines, blah blah blah. It is also small, priced over $1m, no yard, on a cliff, no garage, and just plain weird. Really kind of two houses glued together due to some unofficial addition that was put on years ago.

Anyways, my brother is living with us (I may have mentioned) here at the Randy H rented multi-million $ McCrapsion compound. He's a smoker, and thus banished to one of our many balconies, and thus he gets a bird's eye view (literally) of every open house Sunday over there.

Today he said he saw 1 looker, a very old guy with a yellow notepad, and our other neighbors look at the house. The other neighbor went out on their deck and waved. Last week he said the agent was sitting on the deck in the bigger staged patio furniture chair, sleeping for about an hour. Then she woke up, smoked a cigarette, locked up and drove off in her Lexus.

But hey. I hear things are hopping in San Francisco. Better bid high or you'll lose it. (I'm laughing, really).

In case anyone is wondering, the street I'm on Zillow's for an average of about $2.5m per house. There are four genuine mansions here, two with no Zillow entry at all (but keycard gates and long winding driveways disappearing into the trees), and the other two show just under and over $10m. So this is spode a be prime, right?

I sympathize with Dreamz. I respect someone who is who he is with that kind of start in life.

"How many bidding wars have you “won” lately?"

LOL! the one where your the only bidders and the realtor tells you there are 6 others (fake).?
the one where they dont tell you what the bids are?

But hey. I hear things are hopping in San Francisco. Better bid high or you’ll lose it. (I’m laughing, really).

We were in SF today (again). My wife kept pointing to construction cranes and asking what they were. Because I have been reading socketsite.com a bit too much, I was able to name the condos being built. (Perhaps I should become an agent. :) )

Anyway, I think SF is just lagging behind SD. Cranes should become the official "bird" of bubble-mania.

Malcolm, how was the drive back?

Jesus Peter, did you go up and down twice this weekend?

I stayed in Woodland Hills yesterday, I thought you were in Pasadena, didn't know you were in SF until you told me yesterday. I had a great drive back. We drove through Topanga Canyon, had a great lunch at the Chart House on the beach, with a nice walk on the beach there. The coast just south of Malibu is one of my favorite areas.

Did you come back down or are you still up in SF? I assume you flew; that is actually a pleasant flight.

Did you come back down or are you still up in SF? I assume you flew; that is actually a pleasant flight.

I live in Sunnyvale, which is about 50 miles south of SF.

HARM lives in or around Pasadena.

I drove down to SD only once. It was a very long drive.

Oh, I see. Wow I had that really wrong. I could have sworn you were in Pasadena. Now I know if and when I am up there. I've been up there twice.

I hope Peter P doesn't live in Pasadena. I'm trying to convince him to come work for us in SF. lmao.

Of course, once we hit our first product milestone, I'll probably be trying to convince HARM to bail on Pasadena and migrate north too.

Peter, and Harm are software writers? I've never really asked what everyone does for a living. Randy, I was reading your posts from awhile ago, you are in consulting?

I'm complicated. I was a KPMG consultant out of undergrad. After that I started a telecom consulting and software dev business in Chicago. Moved to Silicon Valley in the mid 90s, and started 2 other companies (one in digital media, one in IT services). Then did a dot-com as CTO that went up in a blaze of glory which leaves me with endless stories on sushi/sake nights for the uninitiate. Hint: our CEO was the guy who invented those things wrapped around every paper cup of coffee you buy at $tarbuck$. Then went back to my old telecom biz and took over as CTO, created some products, and sold all that off to SBC. Went back to B-School to figure out why I got screwed on the deal, got into the VC community doing financial and technology due-diligence consulting. Now I'm back in operations running a new startup for a capital group. I still do telecom strategy consulting and occasional tech due diligence projects for hedge funds and buyout funds who seem to always be itching to buy into shit that don't work.

Your turn :)

Are you kidding me? We had the head of prod dev from WD40 speak to our grad class. He held up the cardboard cup wrap as an example of a ridiculous patent. I knew we had a common point of reference when we were talking about worthless patents. The breaking point for me was seeing a patent number on the little paper ring that holds a knife fork placesetting together with a napkin.

That is a very impressive background. Sounds like you have worn many hats. Tech guys like you with a business understanding are worth your weight in gold. I wish I had some real tech background, my toolbox is light in that area.

My undergrad was operation mgmt, (production and operations), I did a lot of accounting work strong AR going through school. I always found myself in car parts, and running dismantling operations was a fun industry. After my business degree in 1998 my mentor gave me the chance to launch a pest control company. That is still up and running and very successful. I then did some TQM work for about a year at an office furniture manufacturer in the Miramar area. I left that when I moved to N county where for 3 years I worked for a startup in Carlsbad named Metallic Power as their planner/buyer. That company was a startup developing zinc air fuel cells. I left them in 2003 and then decided to get the MBA which I started in 2004, and finished in May 2006. I was also doing the real estate thing on the side from 1995 to 2005 when I sold everything. My last job was a disappointment as Snr Planner for Asymtek (robotic dispensing) in Carlsbad. I only did that for 6 months and left last December. Now I'm rethinking everything.

I've got a little solar company that I launched as my MBA project but that is neither here nor there. I haven't managed to make that profitable, but I am still in touch with the program at SDSU so I am looking at new technologies for licensing and commercialization. But I'm a operations guy, not technical. I have no core competency, just an interest in renewable fuels as you've probably figured out.

Good night everyone, it's late.

Linkin to me if you want. Click my name, find my full name, and do a linkedin search.

Getting an MBA was very smart, IMO. Anderson or somewhere else? I'm biased, but in your case it will serve you very well. You've got a lot of management building years ahead of you yet.

Is your corporate acct. work GAAP or cost? There is a severe shortage of qualified GAAP accountants right now with credible management experience. My wife is an exec at a very large corp. in compliance, and she's importing talent from all over for lack of people.

In fairness to my old CEO, he didn't have the real-bullshit patent. His was on the thermal glue. lol.

WealthyWoman said:
A goldilocks economy as many pundits say, where inflation is non-existant, we hum along at 2-3% GDP growth, rates stay low, and the stock market stays steady.

I'm beginning to doubt whether you're genuine.

Ha Ha said:
Does anybody here appreciates that sustained low interest rate makes united states a country of incompetent people?

It lowers the hurdle rate for everyone, so I guess you may have a point :)