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So long, David!


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2007 May 15, 8:31am   26,507 views  241 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Mission Accomplished!

A Farewell to (option-)ARMs

David Lereah has officially vacated his post as chief shill, propagandist, economist for the NAR. Needless to say, we're really going to miss him here at Patrick.net. Over the many months we have been following him, we have come to revile, detest, loathe, appreciate him as a reliable bald-faced liar, shameless industry whore, source of real estate market information, as well as the public face of the NAR.

David will most likely be replaced by well known NAR lackey, toady, devil spawn, senior economist Lawrence Yun, as he moves on to pursue other interests. He reportedly left his post at the NAR due to being universally reviled, having zero credibility, the repeated death threats, wanting more time to spend with his family and to accept a new position as Chairman of Move, Inc.

So long, David! We all wish you the best!
HARM & the gang

#housing

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116   HARM   2007 May 16, 4:56pm  

GC,

I've about reached the limits of my patience with this stupid cycle of you trying to bait others by posting bizarre sex or scatological content followed by pointless back-and-forth between you and... just about everyone else on this blog. Either cool it and let the subject drop, or say goodbye.

117   HARM   2007 May 16, 4:58pm  

Last warning.

118   surfer-x   2007 May 16, 5:12pm  

All these housing talks can become boring very quickly. Please tell me what new insights has someone uttered recently?

IT'S A FUCKING HOUSING BLOG.

119   Randy H   2007 May 16, 11:51pm  

@everyone

I apologize for my outburst last night.

Coincidences do happen. You judge for yourself how likely a coincidence someone would choose "GC" as a handle, then indulge repeatedly in veiled pedophilia references -- often so he can put himself in the role of defending such. Remember, "GC" posted for a long time as various handles beginning with G.C. like Gentle Cheetah before shortening his pseudonym, perhaps after he was certain no one here got it.

For reference:

http://www.childlover.org/index.php/Annabelleigh.net

Annabelleigh.net referred to as "Girl Chat" or "GC", founded 6 May 2000, is the longest running known Girl Love board. The way it works is based very much on how "Boy Chat" works

120   DinOR   2007 May 17, 12:15am  

Some pretty frank talk from Heli-Ben in Chicago. In spite of the candor I'm not convinced the Fed can make the claim that they were aware of the implications of the credit/housing bubble all along. Many of his comments seemed to be in response to MSM observations.

121   DinOR   2007 May 17, 12:26am  

Randy H,

There's absolutely nothing wrong with having parental instincts. They're a good thing. Governor Conan or GC or whatever "costume" he's wearing that day suffers from 'John Mark Carr Syndrome'. Just smart enough to realize acting on his fantasies might curtail his freedom so he has satisfy his desires by making shocking and outrageous claims.

NIA

122   SP   2007 May 17, 12:43am  

DinOR said:
Governor Conan or GC or whatever “costume” he’s wearing that day suffers from ‘John Mark Carr Syndrome’.

I would say GC and the other trolls are more of a 'Fart In The Elevator' syndrome.

The experience of being here would be much better if said FITE were forcibly removed (and subjected to corrective induement by RandyH :grin: ), but since the time for which we are forced into interaction is somewhat limited, we hold our noses and get by.

SP

123   SP   2007 May 17, 12:45am  

%s / induement / inducement

SP

124   DinOR   2007 May 17, 12:52am  

SP,

LOL! O.K.... I can get on board with that. You do have to wonder if that's how some of those clowns (and I do mean clowns) got started. I'd read accounts that John Wayne Gacy started molesting younger boys as early as 10 and had committed his first murder before he was 13. If you have a really strong stomach you can rent "Dahmer" to see first hand how serial killers get their start although I will warn, it's one of those things you can't "un-see".

125   DinOR   2007 May 17, 12:57am  

Person,

That sounds verbatim from The Stagecoach's personal spokestool "The Instant Millionaire!"

126   Red Whine   2007 May 17, 1:38am  

Randy, where in God's name do you find this stuff?

127   Peter P   2007 May 17, 1:42am  

At work I just saw a poster promoting homeownership and dispelling some nasty “anti-homeownership myths”.

When something is so actively promoted, that something must have something wrong in it.

128   skibum   2007 May 17, 2:46am  

Lisa,

Yeah, that article made me want to vomit. Those shills at the Chronicle really turned on the spin machine, didn't they! I wonder how much "pressure" they got from the REIC ad sponsors to write that piece (of $hit). Did you also notice that their explanation for the "sizzling hot" high-end market is the so-called "wealth effect?" Not once did they mention that a HUGE portion of those purchases in the past several years were done on funky mortgage products. IE, the "wealth effect" is in large part the "loose credit" effect. Let's see how this article holds up after a year or two of tightened credit and ARM resets...

129   lunarpark   2007 May 17, 2:57am  

From the sfgate article:

"Local home prices are still going through the roof"

Um, according to DQ: San Francisco 591 568 -3.9% $779,000 $790,000 1.4%

1.4%? Yeah, "through the roof"

130   ozajh   2007 May 17, 3:13am  

DinOR,

http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/05/guest_blogger_pushes_solution_1.html

I seem to recall reading a post here (maybe even two or three ;)) from your good self making the same point about loan suitability tests, and using somewhat more vigorous language.

131   DinOR   2007 May 17, 3:15am  

"if home values rose at the avg. rate they have over the last 30 years"

More REIC cherry picked data. On the surface it sounds generous enough but if it's all the same to you (Mr. Instant Millionaire) can we run the same data from 1966 to 1996? When you take 1996-2006 out of the mix (total abberation) does the hypothetical still look like a no-brainer?

132   Randy H   2007 May 17, 3:24am  

What amazes me is that the "Dummies" book publishers hasn't come out with "Statistics for Realtors" yet.

1. When the sample size is *decreasing* from sample-to-sample, the median or mean values can *increase* even while internal samples are exhibiting a downward trend.

2. That means less homes are selling on the bottom end, and only more expensive homers are selling. And even those homes are coming *down* in price. But compared to the previous month, the average/median price is higher.

3. WTF do Realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?

4. The media? ugh. Journalism is dead.

133   HARM   2007 May 17, 3:25am  

@SP,

What does "FITE" stand for?

134   DinOR   2007 May 17, 3:27am  

@ozajh,

Thanks so much for that informative link! Really, think about it. What good would it do to implement some sort of "suitability standard" for mortgage brokers interfacing with the public when there are basically NO barriers to entry? In many cases, zero licensing requirements!

It just goes to show how far lenders have to go to reign in "bad actors" b/c in a lot of cases we don't even know who the actors are? How do you enforce "suitabilty" when we can't even monitor who is allowed to write loans? Man... that IS pathetic. Good observations from their guest blogger though!

135   DinOR   2007 May 17, 3:30am  

"WTF do realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?" LOL! :)

Freaking hysterical! Evidently it's a higher criteria than becoming a mortgage broker!

136   HARM   2007 May 17, 3:34am  

At first, I didn't think that SF Chronicle story was so bad by typical "rah-rah" MSM cheerleading standards. It did have this bit:

"The Bay Area numbers come with some caveats, however. The median price is skewed by strong activity at the upper end. Real estate in the region is composed of numerous micro-markets, which vary tremendously. In fact, affluent Bay Area housing markets are getting stronger, while poorer areas are softening.

"The volume (of sales) being low tells you that we've lost the bottom 20 to 30 percent of the market that can't qualify for mortgages," Rosen said. Banks have tightened lending standards in recent months since numerous homeowners started defaulting on subprime loans. Subprimes are higher-cost mortgages sold to people with poor credit."

And then I read this:

"It's safe to say that the more expensive the neighborhood, the more likely it appears to at least temporarily be stabilizing now," LePage said.

..."I'm living in the best of all worlds; I'm in a great microclimate -- Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont, Kensington. My over-$2 million range is absolutely on fire."

...San Francisco families moving to Marin for its schools have helped drive up prices, Stiewe said.

"I feel our market is immune to decreases in value," he said. "We might slow down a little and just hover, but then it picks up again."

137   Peter P   2007 May 17, 3:37am  

WTF do Realtors actually get tested on? How to park a Lexus?

Nah. Lexus parks itself nowadays. :)

138   skibum   2007 May 17, 3:41am  

HARM,
Honestly, for the casual observer, the banner front page headline that reads, "Bay Area's housing prices buck national trend" emblazoned just below the masthead should have been a dead giveaway that this was a spin job.

139   danville woman   2007 May 17, 3:49am  

To GC

I think you are going through hell. You are so bright and yet your energy is being wasted.

I don't pretend to be an expert but this is just my take on how to have a more productive, peaceful life. It is not based on anything scientific except my instincts and working with people as a Nurse Practitioner for the last 30 years.

If you want to win the battle in your mind there are short term and long term solutions.

Short term:
Psych meds
hormonal treatments
sex change operation
counseling

Long term:
meditation and action focusing on positive aspects of life
homeopathy by a super skilled practitioner
Entity removal techniques
The Bible

Just my two cents.

Good luck to you and I wish you well.

140   Peter P   2007 May 17, 3:54am  

meditation and action focusing on positive aspects of life

That is probably the best one.

I would also recommend:

* Traveling to pretty places
* Writing a novel
* Painting

The most important aspect of life is to appreciate.

141   Serpentor   2007 May 17, 4:18am  

I thing the only thing that will cure GC is castration. can we ban this asshat already and get back on topic?

142   astrid   2007 May 17, 4:23am  

I think GC is far more interested in provoking/trolling than in sexual perversions. He may indeed have genuine issues, but I suspect they have little to do with his interest in sex. If he was interested in sex, there would be millions of websites that would offer better picking for sexual perversion.

143   DinOR   2007 May 17, 4:41am  

"our market is immune to decreases in value"

Statements like these make it really difficult to feel any empathy for these people.

1. Thank your lucky stars you aren't a realtor in the other 99% of the country where prices hovered (then crashed) rather than "pick up again".

2. You have absolutely NO investment in your clients beyond the transaction itself. When this thing ultimately blows up in your face (and it will) you can simply walk away with whatever money you've managed to rat hole and not have to live for one minute with totally dissatisfied "clients".

3. The "tricks of the trade" you've learned here will help you in all your future scam-deavors.

144   skibum   2007 May 17, 4:51am  

LOL. Having seen how they park, I would suspect this isn’t part of the test. I have seen one realtor whose LexUV had knocked over her own open-home sign and trapped it under the rear bumper.

SP,
LOL. I hate to be borderline (if not frankly) racist/sexist, but was this Realtor an Asian female? I've been nearly run off the road numerous times by Asian female drivers on 280, El Camino, etc. who appear to be just chugging along, oblivious to the world around them.

145   DinOR   2007 May 17, 5:07am  

"how will they cope with the loss of their high-maintenance lifestyles?"

Uh, not my problem. That's why I've largely pooh-pooh'd the drama of "how will the economy absorb all these "displaced" REIC employees?"

To say that they are "displaced" tends to imply that they had a "place" (or function) to begin with?

146   skibum   2007 May 17, 5:12am  

Exactly what sector of the economy has the capacity to absorb these generally unproductive and mostly unskilled workers? And how will they cope with the loss of their high-maintenance lifestyles?

I predict the next area of "growth" for these easy-money nomads will be in the upcoming boom in Boomer-related personal services. The immense wealth of the retiring Boomers will lead to a need for:

1) personal assistants: who will help them keep track of all of their golf tee times, Hummer car wash appointments, botox injection appointments, etc? Who will help procure their dime bags when they need their "medically prescribed" therapeutic Mary Janes?

2) personal financial managers: how are Boomers going to manage their portfolio of multiple investment and vacation properties?

3) health care: there will be a wave of aging, sick Boomers. They will need at-home aides to change bedpans, etc.

4) Bankruptcy counselors: who will be there to help them through the difficult process of bankruptcy when they realize (a) that negative savings rate wasn't a great idea after all, and (b) their retirement "nest egg" aka their McAlbatross can't sell because every other frickin' Boomer has put their exurban McAlbatross on the market in hopes of cashing out and sailing into the sunset?

147   HARM   2007 May 17, 6:18am  

skibum,

You forgot a few:

5. The repo industry. Lots of HELOC/refinanced Hummers, Lexi, boats & RVs will be "returned to sender" in the coming years, so lots of job opportunities there.

6. Gambling, alcohol/drugs and prostitution. Once FBs hit bottom, they will predictably turn to the traditional age-old crutches/distractions to their financial woes. Boomers also have less self-control and less tolerance for pain than any previous generation, so these will undoubtedly be "boom" industries.

7. Law enforcement and private security. The increase in FB-related petty crimes and domestic violence will be as predictable as #6.

8. Get-rich quick/MLM/Ponzi scaminars. The more desperate and innumerate the FB, the greater their susceptibility to the lure of "sweet deals".

148   Peter P   2007 May 17, 6:26am  

8. Get-rich quick/MLM/Ponzi scaminars. The more desperate and innumerate the FB, the greater their susceptibility to the lure of “sweet deals”.

Perhaps it is time to write a book... :)

Get Rich Quick With Your Own Get Rich Quick Seminars

149   HARM   2007 May 17, 6:44am  

Peter P,

You may be on to something there.

150   DinOR   2007 May 17, 6:58am  

"help them keep track of all their golf tee times"

As funny as some of these suggestions have been I don't think they're too far from the truth. I ran into a realtor friend a few weeks back and she said biz has never been better and starts telling me about the 8 or 10 pre-foreclosures she's worked in the last year!

If you want to fancy yourself as a savvy RE investor don't let me spoil that for you but the truth is that working short sales etc. has a hell of a lot more to do w/ debt counseling than it does w/ RE. It's almost as ridiculous as a drug counselor saying I'm a real "party animal"!

151   Peter P   2007 May 17, 7:02am  

Golf business idea: buying used ladies' shafts and re-marketing them as "stiff" :)

152   Peter P   2007 May 17, 7:05am  

Huh?

153   EBGuy   2007 May 17, 7:06am  

Just toured a condo complex at lunch (had to see the roof top deck). Chit-chatted a bit with the Realtor(s). You will be glad to know she brought up the SF Chronicle when I tried to get a bit negative (up 6%, life is good she says). I was not about to get into it with her but in hindsight I should have at least brought out the Shiller graph from my wallet to show the younger Realtor (as she probably has never seen down times -- the older Realtor, though, bought her first house when mortgages rates were in the double digits). Oh, and the prices: around $600k+ for 800+ sq. ft (2bed/2bath). There were only 4 units left. Like I said, we got intangibles over here :-)

154   Peter P   2007 May 17, 7:14am  

I like traveling and painting. Writing a novel must be postponed until my travel is done.

You can do both at the same time. You have a Tablet PC, right?

155   OO   2007 May 17, 7:39am  

Randy,

thanks for the tips on Belmont, I was driving close to where you mentioned around Ralston, houses do get bigger and newer in that direction, the new Belmont library looks cool, perhaps my expectation was too high based on hearsay. San Carlos, of course, lives up to its reputation.

I was driving on the surface road from Belmont to South Bay so that I could see a bit more of the peninsula, which I never got to know much about throughout my time in BA. The upside surprise was actually western Redwood City around Alameda de Las Pulgas, tons of update, and quite a few new housing developments are sprouting up between Alameda and 280 (still Redwood City I guess). I've always wondered why so few houses have been built along these hills off 280, it seems like a nice setting.

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