patrick.net

Huh?

Just toured a condo complex at lunch (had to see the roof top deck). Chit-chatted a bit with the Realtor(s). You will be glad to know she brought up the SF Chronicle when I tried to get a bit negative (up 6%, life is good she says). I was not about to get into it with her but in hindsight I should have at least brought out the Shiller graph from my wallet to show the younger Realtor (as she probably has never seen down times -- the older Realtor, though, bought her first house when mortgages rates were in the double digits). Oh, and the prices: around $600k+ for 800+ sq. ft (2bed/2bath). There were only 4 units left. Like I said, we got intangibles over here :-)

I like traveling and painting. Writing a novel must be postponed until my travel is done.

You can do both at the same time. You have a Tablet PC, right?

Randy,

thanks for the tips on Belmont, I was driving close to where you mentioned around Ralston, houses do get bigger and newer in that direction, the new Belmont library looks cool, perhaps my expectation was too high based on hearsay. San Carlos, of course, lives up to its reputation.

I was driving on the surface road from Belmont to South Bay so that I could see a bit more of the peninsula, which I never got to know much about throughout my time in BA. The upside surprise was actually western Redwood City around Alameda de Las Pulgas, tons of update, and quite a few new housing developments are sprouting up between Alameda and 280 (still Redwood City I guess). I've always wondered why so few houses have been built along these hills off 280, it seems like a nice setting.

OO

A lot of the nice parts of Belmont are kind of hidden because they are in the hills. The hills in Belmont are more wooded than those above RWC.

Some of that area of RWC is Emerald Hills which (used to be at least) unincorporated RWC. I haven't kept up, but that was a big political football 7-8 years ago. I'm not sure about the Farm Hill area. I think that's unincorporated, but there are some nice homes up by 280. When I lived in RWC we were in the flat, by ADLP, in Mt. Carmel. It's a very nice older neighborhood, which used to be starter homes and retirees. Of course now they all go for $1m, which is unconscionable. Those homes will probably be selling in the high $7s to mid $8s in a couple years. The high school there is notorious and horrific. And private schooling is hyper competitive accordingly. I knew people who drove their kids to Mtn View or SF so they could have a decent education.

Randy H Says:

> A lot of the nice parts of Belmont are kind of hidden
> because they are in the hills. The hills in Belmont are
> more wooded than those above RWC.

There are some nice areas in the hills of Belmont, but make sure to talk to long time residents about the micro-climates before buying.

Just like Sausalito (near the bridge) and Mill Valley (near Tennessee Valley) where parts of the town gets blasted with fog most nights Belmont has some areas (near the top of the hill and the “Belmont Gap”) that get blasted with fog on a regular basis.

EBGuy Says:

> I was not about to get into it with her but in hindsight
> I should have at least brought out the Shiller graph
> from my wallet to show the younger Realtor

I thought I was the only one who had a copy of the Schiller graph in my wallet…

So Morningstar trys to explain the
Subprime Shake-Out: Where Do We Go from Here?

They admit New Century had a 5-star Morningstar Rating for stocks during its collapse.

Later they say
In our eyes, firms that maintain a strong balance sheet with plenty of liquidity and a diversified business are the way to go.
Three names pop into our head almost immediately, two of which are trading at or near 5-star territory right now.
Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC - News)
Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM - News)
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News)

I have been contemplating puts on WaMu. It would seem that now would be the time to buy them (if you believe in the coming Alt-A storm). I hate to go through all this misery and only end up with the T-shirt that says "The housing bubble collapsed and I got was a decimated S&P 500 index fund." Then again, those puts are in specu-vesting territory. As they say, look before you LEAP.

As they say, look before you LEAP.

How far out do you buy?

Beware that long-term options are very sensitive to changes in implied volatilities.

Not investment advice

Interesting Slate article; one particular statement caught my eye:

Think Negative!
Oprah, it's time to come clean about The Secret.

"Cerulo argues we have a lot to learn from two groups of people who have emancipated themselves from the pressure to think positively. She points out that medical workers and computer technicians—the professional troubleshooters of the world—keep our bodies and mainframes running by being paragons of pessimism. When doctors and IT workers take up a case, they begin by dispassionately assuming the worst and then move up from there. Their protocols demand precise and evolving definitions of the most severe maladies and malfunctions, while they tend to have fuzzy and almost absentminded definitions of health, well-being, and normal function. That's the opposite of The Secret. While this may sometimes make doctors and techies a drag, it also helped them avert worldwide disasters like the SARS outbreak and the Y2K bug."

Many people have pointed out that this blog's readership tends to be skewed heavily in favor of IT and medical professionals. Perhaps this has something to do with this blog having a strongly contrarian/skeptical POV.

Today's Headlines:

San Jose Mercury News
PRICIER HOMES HOTTEST SELLERS

San Francisco Chronicle
BAY AREA HOUSING PRICES BUCK NATIONAL TREND

Contra Costa Times Business Section
EAST BAY HOMES HIT 12 YEAR LOW
In small print, it says "median price is up 4.3 %, but
that's because there are fewer starter homes sold"

The realtors need to boycott the Contra Costa Times until it understands how to lie.

Honestly, a dose of skepticism is always healthy, but it is hard to be successful without being a positive thinker.

Ah yes, "Alameda de las Pulgas", which translates into "Avenue of the fleas".

There can't be any development west of 280 since that's a government preserve for watershed. You can't even hike or boat on Crystal Springs Reservoirs - people are banned.

Honestly, a dose of skepticism is always healthy, but it is hard to be successful without being a positive thinker.

True. I suppose it's better to be Pollyanna than Cassandra.

BTW, doctors are positive thinkers. They believe they can cure people.

San Carlos, of course, lives up to its reputation.

Um, what reputation would that be?

It seems to me that our local economy is doing pretty well. A friend of mine just got his current employer to match a 20% better offer from a competitor.

Around me, in my circle of friends and associates, who are all in tech, I don't see much fear or doom/gloom. The salary range seems to be from 70k-150k. Most are getting raises and bonuses too.

Now, I don't want to get all WealthyWoman/MP/etc, but it strikes me that our local economy is doing pretty darn well.

Fortress Mountain View 4eva?

astrid Says: I think GC is far more interested in provoking/trolling than in sexual perversions. He may indeed have genuine issues, but I suspect they have little to do with his interest in sex. If he was interested in sex, there would be millions of websites that would offer better picking for sexual perversion.

Yeah, that was pretty much my thought as well. Notice that GC is rather polite in the tail end of the conflict (like now), mostly because he's getting the attention he craves. We can speculate on the cause all we like, but the kid is very predictable.

btw, there are plenty of people on the Net who are looking to be a little "badass", especially if their real life is totally boring. "Badass" must be a tension in relation to normal people.

Randy: You're definitely not an island in your distaste for these subjects. You and many others (including myself) seem to trigger on about the same wavelength. Anytime you think the kid is getting carried away, you may assume that my support for deletion is implicit.

GC: Fair enough. I will not offer any more observations on your behavior whilst you are prevented from debating them.

GC is a woman Says:
May 17th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
"Peter,
In order to succeed, one cannot have any doubts. That’s why fools become millionaires. "

This philosophy is a sure path to the poor house. Some of the worst ideas are the ones that seem certain. This statement reminds me of the opening line in a typical multilevel marketing pitch. No offense, you are entitled to your beliefs, I just happen to disagree.

The only good thing that happened to this presidency is the new immigration policy, which is eventually going to put a stop to this mindless parent migration, hopefully.

If you look at any immigrant-friendly country (Canada, Australia, NZ, not to mention the old world Europe) in the world, no one welcomes old immigrants, especially those who have not made one single contribution to the local community and the entire purpose of migration was to munch on the local social benefits.

I am a first generation immigrant, and I fully support putting a stop entirely to old parent migration. No more old folks, thank you very much, but of course if you are old and rich and can fund your own retirement/ medicare entirely, we welcome you.

Anybody read today’s front page of the SF Chronicle today?

DAiryQUeen,

If you insist on coming here and trolling, at least have the decency to read the rest of the posts. We've talked about SF Chronicle's spin job front page article already earlier in this thread.

All you do is come off like a trolling fool.

Ah, Sorry skibum! Let me go check it out. I don’t surf the net during work hours!

Anyway, looks like prices are ROCKING AND ROLLING to new record highs! That coupled with low employment, and record high stock market is making me GIDDY! This is going to be a great summer vacation!

Sorry dude,
You just "outed" yourself as MP/FR/CR - more of the same exact phrases, writing style, and tone.

Thanks for revealing yourself to be the troll that you are! It's making me GIDDY!

DAiryQUeen, I have yet to try out the avocado pasta recipe.

FAB

You speak a very important truth. We were in just such an area in Belmont, on the rim of SJ Canyon. We had a pool, from which one might imagine lounging atop the magnificent view sipping a long drink. It was kind of a sick joke. It would cost us about $120 to heat the pool just for a nice Saturday BBQ, since you'd have to start it heating a day and a half earlier.

It would cost us about $120 to heat the pool just for a nice Saturday BBQ, since you’d have to start it heating a day and a half earlier.

Ouch. Perhaps a large jetting tub is more practical then. :)

DAiryQUeen/MarinaPrime/FaceReality/ConfusedRenter,

Your complete ignorance of statistics makes me conclude only one thing, yet again: you must be a REALTOR (TM). YiIIIPEEE!

on youre down payment

On you are down payment, telling isn't it?

dude roll threw $B and count the for sale signs. Why is everyone selling? What if they can't sell, or won't take the market value and have enough to make it. How much can prices go down if nothing is being sold? If the dollar inflates, which means interest goes up, right guys? Then a low interest rate is good, but housing might drop.

Fuck it, I'm having a beer. and those in the area 7/7/07 in midtown ventura, cote etal., and if Randal H Esq, would make it down, plus DinOR, Peter P, LLILLL, and any others. Blog Party SCV (So cal version) III.

@obnoxious dairyqueen thing:
Antioch is Bay Area, absolutely. The Bay Area is big, if you haven't heard. It turns out that there are a *few* people living outside of the Marina and the Castro. It's an unfashionable lot, almost certainly, not the sort of people you'd want to talk to or anything, but the help has to live somewhere, I suppose.

The BART line is heading out to Antioch. Admittedly, it will be about an hour to SF by BART, but I know tons of people who travel an hour to get to work. And out that way, you can actually stretch out a bit. So, yeah, in anticipation of mass transit, they have been putting up some housing and shops and the like.

L, L, L. It’s all about San Francisco.

San Francisco is PRIME!

(notice how this fuc%tard DAiryQUeen fails to deny that he/she is indeed MP/FR/CR etc)

It almost makes me nostalgic to see MP back. Almost.

It almost makes me dance in joy to see you back. Almost.

I guess that SF Chronicle article really got our dear little friend MP/FR/CR/DQ all fired up and ready for another round of abuse on this board.

Well, now we know the spin job by the Chron worked on at least one person...

Randy,

you have pegged G's modus operandi perfectly, he's a troll, I would suggest throwing him in the penalty box.

All the ignorant ethnic posturings and made up histories make a mockery of whatever authenticity seeps through on this anonymous board, if you get my drift.

Guys,

propertyshark just started posting loan info on all properties in the Bay Area (previously only on properties in SF).

Man, I maxed out my 15 daily free report right away, had such a great time getting to know how many acquaintances are totally living beyond their means with a $800K-1.2M loan on VARIABLE rate.

Go check it out, this is the best entertainment ever.

I will have to side with MarinaPrime on the fortress area, not a lot of for-sale signs yet. I am a bit disappointed, but for all the areas that I personally care for, the price is still climbing - asking price that is.

However, after checking out propertyshark, I am convinced that when the housing ATM completely stops in these prime fortresses, things will get very very interesting, since I always presumed that these high flyers are just paying 20-40% down locking down a fixed rate, oh no, variable, and the loan amount is way larger than it should be given how much these people make. I am not talking about the extremely financially savvy crowd making multimillion-dollar bonuses, I am talking about $250K households who have to resort to $1M loan on a variable rate buying from 2004-now.

OO said:
However, after checking out propertyshark, I am convinced that when the housing ATM completely stops in these prime fortresses, things will get very very interesting, since I always presumed that these high flyers are just paying 20-40% down locking down a fixed rate, oh no, variable, and the loan amount is way larger than it should be given how much these people make.

Keep one caveat in mind - I logged on to the shark and checked a few properties for which I know the loan data (including my own) - the loan details are outdated because they show the original purchase loan. If the loanowner refinanced to a fixed rate, it does not seem to update that info.

SP

Yeah - PropertyShark was letting me test their Beta for Bay Area over the last couple of weeks, it was quite interesting although a little hard to navigate unless you had an exact address. And of course I used up my free 15 reports very quickly.

Seems a lot in my vicinity are not in too much trouble, but of course, most are long time residents. I should check out some of the houses that sold in the last couple of years and see if that is more illuminating.

Also, I noticed for the rental I'm in the landlord kept transfering the deed to himself and then a trust and then back again, but there was no mortgage information available - anyone got an idea of what he's up to?

@HARM,

Firstly, Karen Cerulo must be a godess! I'm such a believer in the power of "negative thinking" you could say I've dedicated my life to it!

While I am getting the book this weekend (after reading the reviews and excellent Slate article) I fear she will have left out a huge demographic and real contributor. The aviation crowd. We were taught from boot camp on that planes crash. It's part of the game. Every part and piece of that airplane is just waiting there to betray you. To show you that you are messing with the laws of God and only birds were truly meant to fly.

Even with the best design, most highly trained aircrew and a dedicated maintenance team can the best aircraft remain aloft long enough to complete it's mission. Many will be shot down with so much as a "golden bb" while others will crash and burn (except over the water where they just crash).

From DL (as noted earlier) on down this entire bubble was built on the power of wishful thinking, strapping a board to your @ss, closing your eyes and taking the plunge. Although I've recently been forced to buy I want to go on record as saying I would never willingly jump out of a perfectly good airplane! (I was pushed!)

DinOR

@skibum,

I fear sir that you have perhaps rushed to judgment. I don't believe that "DAiryQUeen is CR/FR/TOS/MP at all.

After seeing first hand the awesome power of bear housing blogs and their effect on DL, Marshall Prentice and John Karevoll have launched a "pre-emptive strike" in blogsphere to counter all that "negative thinking".

My evidence? DAiryQUeen=DAtaQUick! :)