patrick.net

@HARM,

No offense taken. In areas like "Fortress BA" and NYC what we wound up paying would just about cover the realtor's commission and closing costs.

So why get all bent out of shape about this housing bubble thing to begin with, right?

BECAUSE I'M AN @SSHOLE, (alright?) :)

@Peter P,

That's cool. Wasn't his CAR!

Actually, it wasn't cool. But altogether too common. :(

DinOR,

Very true - most of us Clownifornians would leap at the chance to get a decent place for $206K. Hell, I'd take 2. Even the farm-country foreclosures are going for more than that here. I think you can still be well positioned for some bottom-feeding when the time comes, around 2011-2013, so keep the powder dry. Who knows? Maybe we'll all end up going from "rich renters" to "rich landlords", with positive cash-flow properties from day#1.

Well, it sounds like you got a place you wanted at a price you can afford, so that is the important thing.

EBGuy, I forgot to answer your second question: no we want to keep the Noe Valley duplex. This obviously lowers the price range we are looking at, but we might be able to go higher if that is what it takes to get what we want.

We are in no hurry whatsover to move though, since we like where we are and Ava is only 15 months old. I am still hoping prices come down so we can get what we want at the price we want, but I know the real world doesn't always work out like that.

If prices don't move, we plan to say put and enter the SF school lottery and see how that goes. If worse comes to worse, there is always private schools, but we would rather not do that.

@Peter P,

Let me take a wild guess: you got rear-ended by one of those fine, law-abiding "guest workers" that are about to get amnesty?

@HARM,

As always you're more than welcome to move here! (I'm told there's another unit available!) My neighbor HAS HAD IT with specuvestors and stopped by on Thursday to see if I can water for him while in Mexico (Oh!) and could he count on my vote to "grandfather" only existing renters at the next HOA meeting! (Meaning no more flippers/LL's)

No problem dude. :)

@Jimbo,

Thanks! It wasn't really so much a matter of "affordability" as they difference in payment on 180K vice 206K would be about $49 a month but it really was about not feeding the bubble. In ways it worked.

The owner swore on a stack of bibles he would NEVER sell and yet after 2+ years of massive neg. cash flow... he buckled. They had the notion these units would sell for 227K in early 2005! So by now they should sell for, what? 275K? Ahem, (try 206k). 2 years of PITI+HOA's along with countless "special assessments" for improvements will smack the silly right out of a guy, eh?

Let me take a wild guess: you got rear-ended by one of those fine, law-abiding “guest workers” that are about to get amnesty?

Probably not. A "guest worker" could not have a suspended license.

I was glad that no one was significantly injured. My spine was slightly misaligned though.

Peter P,

Sorry to hear, was that recently?

Sorry to hear, was that recently?

About 10 years ago.

I know Berkeley has a lottery, similar to San Francisco, but as far as I can tell all the grade schools in Berkeley are good, so it really doesn’t matter.
I think it may depend on how snotty you are. I live near the "bad" school in my zone and it will probably be our first choice, so I tend to agree with your assessment. I believe busing is also available if your child does not go to the "local" school. Just wanted to make sure you understood all the social engineering going on over here :-) In fact, there is probably a way to game the system and "ensure" your first choice. Unfortunately it involves living in a census track where..... at least the housing is relatively inexpensive.
we want to keep the Noe Valley duplex. This obviously lowers the price range we are looking at, but we might be able to go higher if that is what it takes to get what we want.
Well, you obviously have things well in hand. Good luck on the house hunting and keeps us updated on the state of the market. As you move up towards the hills I think you have less a chance of being assaulted by a bicyclist from Critical Mass.
Well, it sounds like you got a place you wanted at a price you can afford, so that is the important thing.
Ocassionally I get jealous of people with garages.

Anyone paying attention to 10yr ? The yield is up from under 4.68 five days ago to over 4.8 today. Is it really possible that treasury bond investors might actually start paying attention to that little something called "yield" ? Now I am not expecting them to demand higher yield than a shorter term note - I mean who in their right mind would ask that - but this move is quite nice.

StuckInBA - I've been watching the 10yr as well. It's quietly sneaking up.

"most of us Clownifornians would leap at the chance to get a decent place for $206K. "

Hey, I sold my rat-shack in Cambrian Park in May 2006 for $650K+ and bought a much much nicer place in Boise for $272K. Across the street from a nice golf course and riding stables - think Woodside on the cheap. Yes it's true that I could have rented cheaper here in Boise for a while but at least I bailed out of the sinking ship. My downside is much less here.

Going down 25% on $650K+ is a whole lot more loss than going down 10% on $272K. Those are my guestimates on price drops in Cambrian Park vs. Boise.

DairyQueen, I don't know what planet you're on but my house has easily lost 10% of its value over more than the last 12 months. At its peak it was worth $450K, it is barely worth $400K now. I own it outright so I'm not exactly losing sleep over it, but your ridicule is very very misplaced.

San Marcos, CA definitely not the boonies.

1986 construction single level, 3 bed, 2 ba 2 car garage. Pretty small back yard, nice open front yard. For privacy reasons I won't give the exact address out.

Well, it more than doubled in 5 years and wasn't even my best performing one just my favorite for living in.

San Marcos???? Donde esta San Marcos? How long a drive is that from SF???

Greenwich, CT??? How long a drive is that from SF???

DAiryQUeen Says:
will you guys admit you’re wrong?

Only if you admit that you don't understand statistics.

SP

I'm in San Diego. While San Francisco is fun to visit, I'll stay here.

So what tier 1 area do you live in to have such an atitude?

Last I check SF was but one area in California. Check DQs numbers for San Diego and you will see year over year decline, and we have all time record foreclosures. At a recent auction houses sold for 30-50% below peak values.

You sound like a really naive poster WealthyWoman who upon closer inspection of making the same claim was painfully shown that the 850K house in SF that she was being 'outbid' on was actually a $995K house 2 years ago.

~attitude

OK, since SF is out of my comfort zone I'll retreat on this one.

Saying San Diego doesn't have a significant economy seems a little bold to me, but we both share the same outlook for housing here so why argue the details.

DAiryQUeen Says:
SP - Prices are up much more than the 6.6% median claims. Prices in SF are up closer to 8-10% in the past 12 months.

Okay, FairyQueen, put it up. Post a few examples of same house sales that show this trend. Don't fuck about with medians. Show me specific properties.

Or else, go back to waving statistics that will convince only someone who is a bigger fool than yourself.

SP