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Real Estate A Good Investment - Elsewhere!


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2007 May 24, 9:08am   15,040 views  129 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

Ponzi

Dear Patrick,

I enjoyed your housing crash article. It made me feel very good about renting in NY at rent stabilized prices since 1993 and having used the savings to invest in American commercial property, residential property Latvia, Bulgaria and Panama. I have never actually lived in a house I owned and think Robert Shiller's housing puts are a great investment.

I think you were not quite explicit about your principle point: that the US housing market has become a Ponzi style casino in which the commission grabbing mortgage bankers and Wall Street are the house and the retail buyers the naive punters. And anyone who doesn't count his cards and get out in time loses.

Real estate can be a great investment, if you:

1. Invest without emotion and at or below replacement cost, as in Latvia in 1998.

2. Buy where others are too scared because of perceived risk, as in Eastern Europe 5-10 years ago.

3. Buy where prices are the same as 23 years ago, like in Tokyo now.

4. Buy where the rental yield far exceeds bond returns, like in Tokyo now.

5. Buy in growing, cheap resort areas where the yields are close to or in double digits, like in Bulgaria, Turkey or Malaysia now. Beach apts in Malaysia can be bought for 500 euros/m2 with yields of 8-10%. Real estate taxes per year in Bulgaria cost less than dinner at a good restaurant in
Riga.

6. Buy where rapid construction cost inflation + the introduction of a mass mortgage demand will juice demand, as Rumania, Turkey or Bulgaria.

7. Buy in small stable countries with no income tax and good financial services and legal systems right next door to big, disorganized corrupt countries with lots of money to launder, like the Baltic States from 1995-2005 and Panama, Singapore, Turks & Caicos and Malaysia now (next door to Colombia/Venezuela, Indonesia/China). Buy in condotels with in-house rental management companies, so your rental revenue is at per day hotel rates instead of by the month, while the per square meter purchase price is at a normal local market rate.

8. Buy REITs with good yields (Singapore, Japan, Eastern Europe) in fast growing markets and leave the work to Cohen & Steers or the REITs' managers.

9. Invest in areas where EU infrastructure funds are producing wage and construction material inflation and raising replacement costs by double digits per year while the overall CPI is 2-5%.

10. Invest with my brother in the Baltics. My brother's fund is Baltic Realty Partners. His first fund was Latvia Realty Fund (www.latviarealty.com).

Best from sunny Riga and

Kind regards,

Lester G

#housing

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56   Peter P   2007 May 25, 4:58pm  

It’s kind of fun to see the non California market, we sometimes think CA is the whole world until you go somewhere like AZ or NM and see how totally different the market is as far as price and desireability.

Sedona is one of the prettiest places I have visited.

This house in Sedona (7 bedrooms and 13 bathrooms) looks very nice. It is definitely not cheap though. :)

http://www.coldwellbankersedona.com/exceptional.htm

57   DennisN   2007 May 25, 6:19pm  

I moved out of the BA last year.....it really is amazing how far your money goes once you leave.

I had saved a couple $100Ks for the purpose of upgrading my rat-shack Cambrian Park house for something more livable in, say, Campbell. But I finally had to ask myself why. Pretty much every place else in the country is much much cheaper. Although my family had lived in the BA since the mid 1800's, I was the last one there: everyone else had either died or moved away. So I was free to shop around.

I got out a map of the US and did some thinking. I eliminated most places quickly (deep South, NE, midwest, southwest). That left Virginia/NC and the Pacific NW as candidates. I ended up picking Boise and relocating here. Now I have much less invested in a much nicer house and the bulk of my money is in cash and stocks. Selling out in San Jose in April 2006 was in retrospect a great idea.

58   astrid   2007 May 25, 7:57pm  

sybrib,

So you're going to buy me a tiara, a magical pony, and endless drinks at various European watering holes, right?

Otherwise and as I've specifically requested before, cut it out.

59   Randy H   2007 May 26, 1:58am  

sybrib

Attacking someone personally because they have a differing opinion from your own leads me to believe you're weak of mind. Argue the point all you want. But if you want to go call names there are no shortage of shout-blogs out there to suit your fancy.

60   Peter P   2007 May 26, 2:14am  

Although The Marina is unquestionably one of the greatest locations in the country to raise a family, today the apartment buildings, shops and restaurants seem to be bursting at their seams with beautiful, young and fit 20- and 30-somethings.

Huh? How is The Marina the "greatest locations in the country to raise a family?"

If I want to raise a family, and have the money, I will be in Marin County, Connecticut, or other nice places. There is too much riff-raff in SF.

61   DinOR   2007 May 26, 3:58am  

DennisN,

Good for you! Boise is becoming something of a destination for Portlanders as well. Something about the rain, (I'm told?) That and socially it's like "The Rose City" was 30 years ago. Going on vacation? No worries, your neighbors are only too happy to pitch in and they expect the same. Before PDX became a "couples town" (everything is structured around art galleries and SHOPPING) it was a f_a_m_i_l_y town.

Btw, having cash is a good thing. :)

62   skibum   2007 May 26, 4:12am  

Hey, this is a long shot, but doesn't this Realtor (TM):

http://www.hill-co.com/about/detail.php?aUID=225

fit the profile of TOS? The credentials seem better than I'd have expected from the "real" TOS, but, who knows!

63   cb   2007 May 26, 4:24am  

From OO's tips, I signed up at property shark and started looking at my neighborhood (Rivermark) at Santa Clara, I know most of you guys here despise McMansions but I am just reporting the mortgage data that I see. Where our tract was built, it was sold around 700K, then it jumped to 1M and now about 1.2 M for the same house. People are carrying 600 -800K mortgages, many people only put down 10%, and I only recall couple mortgages that are conforming out of about 30 properties I looked at.

Contrary to Sybrib's believe, many of these buyers are Asian but they don't pay all cash, in fact, I only saw 2 cash transactions. Maybe they put there money somewhere else, but I doubt it. When ARMs reset, it's gonna hit hard for the later buyers, at least so far most of the early buyers here can refinance if they haven't already.

64   Randy H   2007 May 26, 6:25am  

The Marina is a terrible place to raise a family. It is a great place for young 20 something professionals who like the (formerly known as) "Yuppie" scene. If you have kids there are few kid-friendly restaurants, you have to pay through the nose for private schools, and you have to put your kids on a stretchy leash while playing in the park for fear of sundry unsavory characters lurking about.

For the same $ one can raise a family in nicer parts of Marin, San Mateo or Santa Clara counties, and running to the store for emergency diapers during potty-training doesn't become an hour long exercise in frustration and overpriced futility.

65   Peter P   2007 May 26, 10:05am  

No kidding Peter P. What were u doing in Phoenix btw?

I am back in the Bay Area now.

I was in Sedona for vacation. It was amazingly beautiful. Much of the Bay Area looks hopelessly ugly, although many places in Marin are also quite insipiring.

66   Peter P   2007 May 26, 10:08am  

There are a bunch of wealthy Asians who go to Stanford and then buy/work in SF

I went to Stanford but I fail to see how one leads to the other.

67   skibum   2007 May 26, 10:12am  

I went to Stanford but I fail to see how one leads to the other.

Very few Stanford students are wealthy AND Asian. However, some are Asian, but aren't really Stanford students after all:

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/05/26/MNG5JQ2AP01.DTL

68   Malcolm   2007 May 26, 10:46am  

My girlfriend nannied for a mixed couple (white guy, Japanese wife). I think they both were Stanford Alumni. It seemed predetermined that the kids were going to go to Stanford.

69   Malcolm   2007 May 26, 10:47am  

They are quite well off. The wife made a killing on her Idek stock options.

70   Malcolm   2007 May 26, 10:49am  

PeterP, glad you had a good trip.

To each his own, that house was gorgeous but that kind of price gets you your pick in Rancho Santa Fe, or Del Mar. I think I'm partial to California. As crazy as it may sound, luxury living in San Diego seems reasonably priced for what you get.

71   Peter P   2007 May 26, 11:10am  

As crazy as it may sound, luxury living in San Diego seems reasonably priced for what you get.

That is true. The Bay Area has too much luxury-priced crap.

72   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 26, 2:03pm  

CB---

I don't think the elites in places like Mumbai and Taipei and Shanghai covet the Rivermark and its Santa Clara Unified School District.

They buy-in for the enrollment areas of Monte Vista, Lynbrook, Saratoga.

Rivermark might be new, and it might be a different kind of self-selected enclave, but it ain't Monte Vista.

73   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 26, 2:08pm  

Muggy,

Stanford sounds like a pressure cooker. Remember the coed from San Diego whose father expressed his anger at the police when they ruled it a suicide?

Then there's the imposter coed who was outed this week, also from Southern Cal.

74   ozajh   2007 May 26, 3:34pm  

@justme,

What a truckload of bullshit.

Agree, but that hasn't stopped the Troll of Many Handles using the "median price of an existing home increased 6.2%" (or 6.6% for SF) meme over and over and over . . .

75   Peter P   2007 May 26, 5:52pm  

Stanford sounds like a pressure cooker.

Huh? It was rather relaxing to get through Stanford. Just be happy and eat good food in Palo Alto and you will be fine.

76   Peter P   2007 May 26, 5:56pm  

Can someone please tell me what is keeping Europe together? No offense, but what is the competitive advantage of Europe?

77   e   2007 May 26, 7:05pm  

Ack. Another Rent Hike at my complex!

Starting on the 24th month of my stay here, my rent will have gone up 12% from when it started.

WTF. :(

78   Randy H   2007 May 27, 1:12am  

SQT,

I wish all of you that live in the BA could see this, it’s just beautiful to behold.

Oh, I so wish I would see that here. This morning, as I sit, chilled, on a couch in my rented McMansion, I gaze out over Tam Valley. I cannot see across the expanse to the clusters of recently built McMansions crowded together, as if seeking warmth. Warmth, denied by swirls and eddies of infinite thick fog that blankets these hills and valleys twenty-nine days a month.

Yet stubborn sellers continue to defy the inevitable. Later today we'll skip the dozens upon dozens of grotesquely overpriced houses in this area, even though they've languished on the market for hundreds of days.

79   Peter P   2007 May 27, 3:12am  

What were the things u did in High School to get into Stanford?

I went to Stanford grad school. Its Masters program is actually very easy to get into.

did you feel you had more pressure

No. I felt more pressure at UC Davis during my undergrad years. But again, I had fun anyway.

80   skibum   2007 May 27, 4:13am  

Stanford sounds like a pressure cooker. Remember the coed from San Diego whose father expressed his anger at the police when they ruled it a suicide?

Then there’s the imposter coed who was outed this week, also from Southern Cal.

sybrib,

From personal experience, Stanford is no pressure cooker at all. In fact, I'd argue the opposite - undergraduates are coddled to the point of being spoiled. The professional school programs (MBA, MD, JD) are known to be more relaxed and laid back than their East Coast peer institutions. The exception is some of the "hard" science graduate programs, in particular EE (exceptionally low qual exam pass rate for the PhD program) and chemistry (lots of nut jobs on faculty and in the PhD program).

The recent suicide is tragic, but I think it is more a reflection of the girl's typical Asian immigrant high-pressure family (check out the family's web site for instance), and less so, her undergrad experience at MIT.

Interestingly, that girl and the two "fake" Stanford students just outed are all three Asian females. Coincidence or not?

81   skibum   2007 May 27, 4:13am  

Stanford sounds like a pressure cooker. Remember the coed from San Diego whose father expressed his anger at the police when they ruled it a suicide?

Then there’s the imposter coed who was outed this week, also from Southern Cal.

sybrib,

From personal experience, Stanford is no pressure cooker at all. In fact, I'd argue the opposite - undergraduates are coddled to the point of being spoiled. The professional school programs (MBA, MD, JD) are known to be more relaxed and laid back than their East Coast peer institutions. The exception is some of the "hard" science graduate programs, in particular EE (exceptionally low qual exam pass rate for the PhD program) and chemistry (lots of nut jobs on faculty and in the PhD program).

The recent suicide is tragic, but I think it is more a reflection of the girl's typical Asian immigrant high-pressure family (check out the family's web site for instance), and less so, her undergrad experience at MIT.

Interestingly, that girl and the two "fake" Stanford students just outed are all three Asian females. Coincidence or not?

82   skibum   2007 May 27, 4:14am  

Stanford sounds like a pressure cooker. Remember the coed from San Diego whose father expressed his anger at the police when they ruled it a suicide?

Then there’s the imposter coed who was outed this week, also from Southern Cal.

sybrib,

From personal experience, Stanford is no pressure cooker at all. In fact, I'd argue the opposite - undergraduates are coddled to the point of being spoiled. The professional school programs (MBA, MD, JD) are known to be more relaxed and laid back than their East Coast peer institutions. The exception is some of the "hard" science graduate programs, in particular EE (exceptionally low qual exam pass rate for the PhD program) and chemistry (lots of nut jobs on faculty and in the PhD program).

The recent suicide is tragic, but I think it is more a reflection of the girl's typical Asian immigrant high-pressure family (check out the family's web site for instance), and less so, her undergrad experience at MIT.

Interestingly, that girl and the two "fake" Stanford students just outed are all three Asian females. Coincidence or not?

83   skibum   2007 May 27, 4:17am  

oops - triple post!!! How the heck did I manage that one?

84   Peter P   2007 May 27, 4:27am  

Chinese are hypercompetitive

Probably they have forgotten the teachings from The Art of War and I Ching.

85   Peter P   2007 May 27, 4:33am  

The recent suicide is tragic, but I think it is more a reflection of the girl’s typical Asian immigrant high-pressure family (check out the family’s web site for instance), and less so, her undergrad experience at MIT.

I always wonder why these families pressure their kids to be better and meaner worker bees. It is almost laughable.

They need more spiritual development.

86   skibum   2007 May 27, 4:36am  

Probably they have forgotten the teachings from The Art of War and I Ching.

To me, that pretty much sums it up for modern Chinese culture in general. There seems to be a huge disconnect between the "classic" Chinese teachings of balance, harmony with nature, and "going with the flow," and the modern hyper-competitiveness, tacky and gauche displays of wealth, and disregard for nature. Interesting.

87   Peter P   2007 May 27, 4:46am  

There seems to be a huge disconnect between the “classic” Chinese teachings of balance, harmony with nature, and “going with the flow,” and the modern hyper-competitiveness, tacky and gauche displays of wealth, and disregard for nature. Interesting.

Sad... but excellent! :)

Hyper-competitiveness is the wrong motivation.

88   Brand165   2007 May 27, 4:54am  

Peter P says: Hyper-competitiveness is the wrong motivation.

Competition is not all negative. But it cannot ever be healthy when people have forgotten why they compete in the first place.

89   Peter P   2007 May 27, 4:59am  

I’ve been to public and private schools, and there’s no difference except for the restrooms.

Food in Stanford is notably better.

90   Jimbo   2007 May 27, 5:58am  

you have to pay through the nose for private schools, and you have to put your kids on a stretchy leash while playing in the park for fear of sundry unsavory characters lurking about.

There are unsavory characters lurking around Marina Green and The Presidio? You are kidding right? The only unsavory slightly characters I ever see around there are lost German tourists, in their Birkenstocks.

There are many good public schools in San Francisco. It is true that you are not guarateed entry into any of them, including the neighborhood school, and I have heard stories from people who love the public school their child is in and also from others who send their children to private school, so it is a mixed bag. I guess if it is important to you that your children only be around other wealthy children, then private school or a wealthy suburban school district is the way to go. For some reason, even Marin has a large private school component, 19% of the student population and the second highest in the state (after San Francisco at 29%).

91   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 27, 6:12am  

skibum & Peter P:

http://web.mit.edu/ntan/www/articles/saratoga.htm

If you don't have time to read about the cheating scandal at the elite & covted Saratoga High School, you can also read this quote from it:

"... The cheating scandal put some parents who moved here from Hong Kong, Taiwan and India in an uncomfortable spotlight because the students who were caught were all from Asian backgrounds...."

92   Jimbo   2007 May 27, 6:21am  

I have near 200K in 401K. What do you think a reasonable retirement target. Should it be 1 million dollars?

$1M in 2007 dollars is probably enough for a modest retirement for a single person, more than modest if your home is paid for. Retirement counselors say you should spend no more than 4%/yr, if you don't want to risk running out of money.

To do this right, you need to have someone run some Monte Carlo simulations for you, to see what your risk of running out of cash before you die is.

93   danville woman   2007 May 27, 9:05am  

When my youngest was in elementary school, her kindergarten teacher went to Stanford. Seems like overkill. Her pay was no higher than if she had gone to the local Junior College and transferred to a State School for her upper division classes.
I guess, it would have paid off if she met Mr. Right there who had money or had the potential for money.

94   Boston Transplant   2007 May 27, 10:32am  

Peter P says: Can someone please tell me what is keeping Europe together? No offense, but what is the competitive advantage of Europe?

I think taken as a whole the EU has a diverse set of industries. London rivals or beats New York as the financial capital of the world. Germany has world-class engineering (not just BMW and Mercedes, mind you, think Siemens, Zeiss, etc). France has excellent civil-engineers, as well as exporting foodstuffs, and gourmet goods. Switzerland has Novartis, Nestle and a host of others. Netherlands has Shell. The list goes on.

What's interesting is that the U.S. has comparable companies or products for each of the above listed. When people bemoan our loss of manufacturing, they forget our depth and breadth as a nation.

95   Boston Transplant   2007 May 27, 10:51am  

Regarding Stanford, I went there for undergrad and master's, and I would agree that any pressure cooker mentality is self-imposed by students. Many choose to lead a balanced life, though many others spend all their waking hours in the library or studying in their dorm. There is also a large segment of the population that spends a moderate amount of time studying, but then supplements that with an insane number of hours playing a sport, keeping up a hobby/talent, or playing music. Usually (but not always) the motivations are internal and based on a love of whatever the student is involved in.

It is true that in comparison with East coast schools Stanford is much more laid-back. However, whether you consider Stanford students "lazy" or Harvard students "overworked" is really a matter of norms (personally I think Stanford has it right). I've lived in Boston for the last seven years and have a spent a lot of time with MIT and Harvard students, and what I would say is, there is a bell-curve distribution of "work-ethic" at all schools, but that at Harvard and MIT their is a fat tail on the right-hand side that really overdo it.

Regarding getting in...I was home-schooled in Mendocino county, so I may have benefitted from some rural affirmative-action (slight sarcasm). But if there is one commonality that characterizes the students I've met at top schools, it's intellectual curiosity. When encountering a new idea or field...does the student want to find out more and more, even when their peers are bored to tears? Couple that with attention to detail, and I believe a student is well on his/her way to a top school, even without a national figure-skating medal.

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