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And I Thought You Were My Friend...


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2007 Oct 11, 5:08pm   23,666 views  227 comments

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I thought you were my friend...

I noticed that every housing-related article in my rss-feeds today has a negative headline. Negative reports on housing sales, housing starts, home-builders, mortgages, and housing prices. If they aren't predicting further drops, then they are blaming slow retail sales on housing and mortgage problems. In more and more articles, the REIC are being fingered as accomplices to fraud.

Boston Globe: "The US housing bust is like a leaking ship."
Bloomberg: "Retail Sales Slowed as Housing Fell"
Valley Tribune: "Realtor faces trial in alleged scam"
NBC: "Officials Say Mortgage Fraud Is Growing Problem"
AP: "Bear Stearns Predicts Ripple Effect of Real Estate Decline"
Bakersfield Californian: "Realtor Offices Raided By FBI"
Los Angeles Times: "Home prices expected to drop"
:
:
and so on.

When they actually quote from a shill - either a realtor, or a NAR-dummy, or a home-builder - it is invariably with a counterpoint from a more credible source.

Has the MSM has finally clambered on to the bandwagon and left the REIC to fend for itself?

Should Patrick start reporting on articles that are still bullish on housing? Those are becoming harder to find!

SP

#housing

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30   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 5:26am  

There are more restaurants with the wannabe hip interiors serving bland food.

Those restaurants aren't that bad. I love bland food anyway.

There are fewer of the older “real” ethnic restaurants serving really good food. They’ve either closed or gone to pot.

I guess they could have gone for a higher price point. The market has changed. One must adapt or else. ;)

31   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 5:29am  

San Mateo downtown has better food overall than Mountain View.

32   SP   2007 Oct 12, 5:41am  

skibum said:
So exactly how much MEW did this be-atch take out? Should we bail her out if her plan doesn’t go as expected???

I am willing to bail her out to exactly the extent that she would have shared her gains with me, if her plan HAD gone as she expected.

SP

33   SP   2007 Oct 12, 5:52am  

# Peter P Says:
Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro.

Are you serious?

Those new, trendy, hipster-infested restaurants are the best ones to avoid, in general.

SP

34   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 6:11am  

Those new, trendy, hipster-infested restaurants are the best ones to avoid, in general.

Why?

Usually, good restaurants are those with pricing power. Hipsters allow a market with such restaurants.

35   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 6:22am  

Usually, good restaurants are those with pricing power. Hipsters allow a market with such restaurants.

False logic. Pricing power doesn't guarantee good food nor a good dining experience. If the owners just wanted a trendy place, less attention would be paid to the chef, menu, wine list and ingredients, and more to the ambience, etc. Such is the case with these wannabe restaurants. You can charge all you want, but if the food sucks, it's still a crappy restaurant. The opposite example is/was Manka's in Inverness. Great food, not so trendy.

Besides, "hipsters" are usually out for the scene, not the food. Once a restaurant becomes "trendy," it's often not worth going there anymore, IMO. Sorta like the Yogi Berra (paraphrased), "No one goes there anymore because it's too crowded."

Besides besides, the day Castro Street (Mtn View) is truly trendy is the day hell freezes over. It's nothing but a dressed up drab suburban downtown. TAP Plastics and that aquarium are what I think of, not trendy eateries.

36   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 6:47am  

False logic. Pricing power doesn’t guarantee good food nor a good dining experience.

Please explain how a good restaurant can be sustainable without pricing power.

Pricing power doesn’t guarantee good food, but the lack of pricing power guarantees bad food or bad business.

If the owners just wanted a trendy place, less attention would be paid to the chef, menu, wine list and ingredients, and more to the ambience, etc.

Why can't we have them all? This is why it is important for the food market NOT to be price-sensitive.

Once a restaurant becomes “trendy,” it’s often not worth going there anymore, IMO.

True. If it is trendy for the wrong type of people (e.g. engineers)...

37   Duke   2007 Oct 12, 6:56am  

Peter P,

Ahem. Engineers? Lucy, you have some splainen' to do.

38   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 6:57am  

Ahem. Engineers? Lucy, you have some splainen’ to do.

I have no respects for engineers, because I am one of them.

39   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 7:00am  

The opposite example is/was Manka’s in Inverness. Great food, not so trendy.
Talk about pricing power. Admittedly, I now regret not immersing myself in the Mankas experience, given that it is no longer possible... but really, that place was beyond my "choke point" ( the price range at which food sticks in the throat because it's cost is beyond comprehension ). Admittedly I am somewhat of a cheapskate -- I can do $100+ on a meal for two (including tip), but it had better be good. After that, forget it. Well, at least I got to wander around the lobby, absorb the ambience, and sit on the front porch before the great fire.
And since we are on this track, has anyone noticed that every B&B owner under the sun thinks this is a great time to "retire from the business". I know the one we stayed at in Inverness was up for sale at one point last year (not sure if it sold).

40   Duke   2007 Oct 12, 7:05am  

B&B people are pretty shrewd about the value of the property and how much hard work is involved. They are selling today at price $X so they can buy their own place back in 3 years at $X-alot.

41   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:23am  

Pricing power doesn’t guarantee good food, but the lack of pricing power guarantees bad food or bad business.

You're arguement completely discounts the notion of good street food, "hole in the wall" excellent food experiences ala Calvin Trillin. Some of the best food can be found at places like this, not only at the French Laundry or Manresa.

42   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:23am  

EBGuy,
Yes, that place is outrageously priced, but IMO worth it.

43   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:44am  

skibum, pricing power does not equate high price.

44   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:44am  

BTW, I don't like Manresa.

45   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:46am  

Some “hole in the wall” restaurants are pricey. (e.g. Sawa Sushi)

46   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 7:47am  

pricing power does not equate high price.

Sure, but most often it does.

I haven't been to Manresa in a year or so - have they gotten worse, or did you never like them that much? We've been thinking about going back soon...

47   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 7:52am  

Sure, but most often it does.

Not really. It is more about the ability to increase prices.

Many restaurants lack the ability to raise prices just to keep pace with inflation. Some can't even survive without offering deep discounts.

It is sad. Food is difficult business. Real estate WAS much easier. ;)

I haven’t been to Manresa in a year or so - have they gotten worse, or did you never like them that much? We’ve been thinking about going back soon…

I was there about 1.5 years ago. It was okay, but I was not too impressed. I will give it another try.

48   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 8:04am  

Peter P,

Funny that we're on this topic. A recent WSJ piece looked at this very subject in NYC:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119198373154954370.html

As a result, there has been a high rate of inflation at these best-in-class venues. Since 9/11, the average meal cost at the restaurants on our 20 Most Expensive list has jumped to $143.06 from $84.85 -- 11.6% a year. The arrival of super expensive restaurants like Masa ($485) and Per Se ($301) contributed to this sea change, but even without these newcomers, inflation at top-of-the-line places is roughly 5%.

Among all New York restaurants, however, the average cost of a meal has risen only three cents since last year's survey -- to $39.46 from $39.43, a barely perceptible 0.1% This is thanks to a slew of inexpensive newcomers that keep the cost average steady. New York might be the most expensive city in America for dining out, but for average meal cost it's far behind Paris ($71.51), Tokyo ($73.11) and London ($78.57).

So, fancy restaurants in New York are getting more and more expensive, while cheap restaurants are still cheap. Meanwhile, it's very expensive to eat in Paris, London and Tokyo. Based on personal experience, I'd say the Bay Area (SF proper in particular) fits the bill with NYC - top restaurants are getting more expensive, while good cheap food is still pretty easy to come by.

49   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:17am  

Based on personal experience, I’d say the Bay Area (SF proper in particular) fits the bill with NYC - top restaurants are getting more expensive, while good cheap food is still pretty easy to come by.

In the-restaurant-that-we-can't-talk-about, you can still get a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

I don't recall Tokyo being too expensive. I hear London is super expensive though.

50   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:21am  

But don't you at least agree that a good restaurant should not be afraid to raise prices just to maintain a profit margin?

Food in SF proper is generally reasonably priced. Even The Dining Room has 4-course dinner under $100 (still? haven't been in a while).

NY is really quite pricey. I remember paying $60 for 5 pieces of thumb-sized sushi.

51   e   2007 Oct 12, 8:21am  

>>In the-restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about, you can still get a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

Oh come on. Drop me a line - let me know. I won't blog about it! burbed@burbed.com :)

52   skibum   2007 Oct 12, 8:25am  

But don’t you at least agree that a good restaurant should not be afraid to raise prices just to maintain a profit margin?

Yes, definitely - simple market principles should apply to restaurants, after all. Coming back full circle, though, those who appreciate the actual food and dining experience are too few and far between to make those metrics the basis for which restaurants have the ability to set a price. It's usually trendiness and good restaurant reviews (Michelin stars, Zagat's, etc.) that dictate pricing power, although of course there is some correlation between reviews and quality.

I'd bet the French Laundry could double their current prices, and they'd still have a month+ long waitlist.

53   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 8:31am  

I’d bet the French Laundry could double their current prices, and they’d still have a month+ long waitlist.

Why don't they?

If there is a waiting list, the price is wrong.

54   StuckInBA   2007 Oct 12, 9:00am  

Any good sushi restaurants here in south bay ? Sunnyvale/Santa Clara/Mountain View area ? Thanks.

55   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 9:06am  

Any good sushi restaurants here in south bay ? Sunnyvale/Santa Clara/Mountain View area ? Thanks.

Nami Nami on Castro is not bad.

If you really LOVE raw fish, Sawa Sushi in Sunnyvale some good sashimi. But they have nothing but raw fish. There is no price and no menu.

56   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 9:29am  

This should give a boost to local inventory numbers. SF and Marin still have a ways to go, though. Love this CL listing: $156000 Condo-Short Sale Investor wanted-Long Term Tenant Included. You guys are never going to become homemoaners if you keept going out for sushi -- sign me a JBH.

57   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 9:41am  

The Bay Area home foreclosures triple in September link was broken in my last post.

58   Claire   2007 Oct 12, 10:13am  

While we are on the subject - what happened/is happening with the Golden Wok in Mountain View? Anyone know the story?

Thanks

59   SP   2007 Oct 12, 11:43am  

# skibum Says:
TAP Plastics and that aquarium are what I think of, not trendy eateries.

I am not too sure about TAP Plastics, but that aquarium is one of the best things happening there. :-) I usually drop a fiver in the donation basket - just doing my bit to make sure they don't shut down and turn the place into yet another Italian-Vietnamese-Indian Fusion Dining Bistro kind of place.

60   Different Sean   2007 Oct 12, 12:55pm  

i blamed slow retail sales on housing woes years ago....

61   FormerAptBroker   2007 Oct 12, 2:20pm  

eburbed Says (about the SSF “Single Mom” with 9 kids):

> Actually it turns out she wasn’t always single…

I still thought the story was funny (there really are people stupid enough to have 9 kids “and” get a variable rate subprime loan) …

Then (after a morning of RE Bubble talk) Peter P Says:

> Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro.

And I have to admit I have never thought about heading down to Mtn. View with a date for dinner…

Peter P then Says:

> San Mateo downtown has better food overall than Mountain View.

And is closer to SF for a “suburban dining adventure”… I wonder if single Mom’s with 9 kids in South City will head up to the city or down to San Mateo for a first date?

Then skibum Says:

> Besides besides, the day Castro Street (Mtn View)
> is truly trendy is the day hell freezes over.

As scary as it is to say this could happen, but hell “will” freeze over when Grand Ave. in SSF is “trendy” (nothing is less trendy than a 29 year old 250 pound Latina single mom with 9 kids).

> TAP Plastics and that aquarium are what I think of, not trendy eateries.

If you like cool plastic aquariums there is a nice one at the new Sushi Rock in the inner Richmond (that just opened in the old Café Riggio space on Geary Blvd.)…

skibum then Says:

> The opposite example is/was Manka’s in Inverness.
> Great food, not so trendy.

Has anyone heard if this place is open again (after the fire) or any other recommendations for cool places to eat after a day kayaking on Tomales Bay?

Then EBGuy Says:

> Admittedly I am somewhat of a cheapskate —
> I can do $100+ on a meal for two (including tip)

I hope you don’t ever order wine…

Peter P then Says:

> BTW, I don’t like Manresa.

Has anyone heard if the new Bay Area Michelin Guide is out? It was just about a year ago that I read about Manresa in the last guide and made reservations to stop there for dinner on the way back from Monterey…

> Peter P then Says:

> In the-restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about, you can still get
> a decent 7-course dinner for $97.

Please don’t keep your friends on the best Bay Area Real Estate & Restaurant BLOG guessing, what is “the restaurant-that-we-can’t-talk-about”?

P.S. Has anyone heard from astrid (she always seemed to get more interested in food/cooking utensil threads than RE threads)?

62   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:34pm  

FAB,

they are referring Kaygetsu, a Menlo park strip mall outfit that, surprisingly serves the traditional Japanese Kaiseki dinner. $97 is only for the dinner, then you almost always have to order sake pairing, which is another $35ish on top.

Is it good? Well, if you ever head to Kyoto, I can suggest a couple of places that are considered the top of the top (but you can only get in if you stay in the first-rate Ryokans -Japanese B&B- or Ritz equivalent, because the kaiseki outfits are horribly pretentious, excuse my french). I think one needs to do it once in life, but once is enough. Kaygetsu is the cheapest place where you can do this, but kaiseki is also about the dining experience as a whole, so the garden, decor, or even live performance (which is available in Kyoto) should be part of the package.

Compared to a $300/pp bill upwards in Kyoto, Kaygetsu is a steal.

63   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:34pm  

referring to

64   OO   2007 Oct 12, 2:40pm  

OK, just checked out Manresa's website, $92 pp + wine + tax tips etc.

Is it worth it? Anybody who has tried it out yet? If I am paying close to a hundred bucks pp excl wine, the food had better blow me away or I'd be very pissed.

65   Peter P   2007 Oct 12, 3:10pm  

Is it worth it? Anybody who has tried it out yet? If I am paying close to a hundred bucks pp excl wine, the food had better blow me away or I’d be very pissed.

I prefer The Dining Room.

http://www.ritzcarlton.com/en/Properties/SanFrancisco/Dining/TheDiningRoom/Menu.htm

66   SP   2007 Oct 12, 4:01pm  

FAB said:
If you like cool plastic aquariums there is a nice one at the new Sushi Rock

The one that skibum brought up wasn't a lonely aquarium in a restaurant, it was an actual aquarium/terrarium store that has really clean, well-maintained displays and healthy, well-cared for fish and reptiles. It is really worth a visit if you are there with a kid.

Being a regular store, there is no admission fee. Lately, however, they figured they should monetize the foot-traffic of looky-loos, and have a basket by the door for donations. Well worth the buck or five, IMO.

SP

67   OO   2007 Oct 12, 4:10pm  

PeterP,

thanks for the suggestion, will try it out when I need to head up to the City.

68   SP   2007 Oct 12, 4:16pm  

Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway, does anyone have recommendations for places to eat around UCSD? I will be there on a Sunday in a week or two. Looking for a dive-y place to hang out, nothing very ritzy or dressy. Also, what's a good place to knock back a few beers around there? Is there a Tied House equivalent?

SP

69   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 5:44pm  

Has anyone heard if this place is open again (after the fire) or any other recommendations for cool places to eat after a day kayaking on Tomales Bay?
I spent a bit of time surfing the web this afternoon and could find nothing to indicate Mankas was open again (except for, well, the menus on their website -- an homage to their past?) How about giving us a review of Nick's Cove in Marshall. It seems to have gotten a bit of ink these past couple of months (probably because of its connection with Pat Kuleto).

I hope you don’t ever order wine…
Hey, a glass will not break the bank... but being a cheapskate does mean I tend to get sticker shock on bottle markups (plus with higher alcohol content these days, a glass helps ensure I will make it home).

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