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And I Thought You Were My Friend...


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2007 Oct 11, 5:08pm   23,753 views  227 comments

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I thought you were my friend...

I noticed that every housing-related article in my rss-feeds today has a negative headline. Negative reports on housing sales, housing starts, home-builders, mortgages, and housing prices. If they aren't predicting further drops, then they are blaming slow retail sales on housing and mortgage problems. In more and more articles, the REIC are being fingered as accomplices to fraud.

Boston Globe: "The US housing bust is like a leaking ship."
Bloomberg: "Retail Sales Slowed as Housing Fell"
Valley Tribune: "Realtor faces trial in alleged scam"
NBC: "Officials Say Mortgage Fraud Is Growing Problem"
AP: "Bear Stearns Predicts Ripple Effect of Real Estate Decline"
Bakersfield Californian: "Realtor Offices Raided By FBI"
Los Angeles Times: "Home prices expected to drop"
:
:
and so on.

When they actually quote from a shill - either a realtor, or a NAR-dummy, or a home-builder - it is invariably with a counterpoint from a more credible source.

Has the MSM has finally clambered on to the bandwagon and left the REIC to fend for itself?

Should Patrick start reporting on articles that are still bullish on housing? Those are becoming harder to find!

SP

#housing

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68   SP   2007 Oct 12, 4:16pm  

Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway, does anyone have recommendations for places to eat around UCSD? I will be there on a Sunday in a week or two. Looking for a dive-y place to hang out, nothing very ritzy or dressy. Also, what's a good place to knock back a few beers around there? Is there a Tied House equivalent?

SP

69   EBGuy   2007 Oct 12, 5:44pm  

Has anyone heard if this place is open again (after the fire) or any other recommendations for cool places to eat after a day kayaking on Tomales Bay?
I spent a bit of time surfing the web this afternoon and could find nothing to indicate Mankas was open again (except for, well, the menus on their website -- an homage to their past?) How about giving us a review of Nick's Cove in Marshall. It seems to have gotten a bit of ink these past couple of months (probably because of its connection with Pat Kuleto).

I hope you don’t ever order wine…
Hey, a glass will not break the bank... but being a cheapskate does mean I tend to get sticker shock on bottle markups (plus with higher alcohol content these days, a glass helps ensure I will make it home).

70   OO   2007 Oct 12, 5:58pm  

EBGuy,

if you can wait, I am going to try out Nick's Cove first, in a couple of weeks. It seems that the price is right.

I am more of a cheapstake than you, a good restaurant must price its inventory right. I am more than willing to pay for superb materials, cooking skills, but not decor, ambience, service or alcohol. You can abuse me at a hole in the wall if that makes your food cheaper, and since I am already married, there's no need to woo my wife, she manages the family finance and approves the bill.

71   skibum   2007 Oct 13, 1:14am  

RE: the Tomales Bay area, there's always the old standbys - Hog Island Oysters, Station House Cafe in Point Reyes Station, and the Olema Inn.

RE: Manresa, I've been there twice. I like it a lot. It's by and far the best in the South Bay, although that's not hard to do. It's as good as most of the top end SF restaurants. Up in the City, in addition to the dining room, try Quince, and I still have a soft spot for Zuni.

72   ozajh   2007 Oct 13, 1:53am  

Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro.

The Patrick version of the Butterfly effect:

"Even the mildest reference to eating in a post results in a food thread." :)

73   FormerAptBroker   2007 Oct 13, 1:56am  

OO Says:

> FAB, they are referring Kaygetsu, a Menlo park strip mall
> outfit that, surprisingly serves the traditional Japanese
> Kaiseki dinner. $97 is only for the dinner, then you almost
> always have to order sake pairing, which is another $35ish..

Sounds like a place to check out when I am down on the Peninsula…

> Is it good? Well, if you ever head to Kyoto, I can suggest a
> couple of places that are considered the top of the top (but
> you can only get in if you stay in the first-rate Ryokans
> Compared to a $300/pp bill upwards in Kyoto, Kaygetsu
> is a steal.

No plans to head to Kyoto any time soon. Last time I was there I had dinner at a little place in one of the long covered shopping malls off a main street. I think dinner for two (with Sake) was only about 40,000 Yen…

SP Says:

> Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway,
> does anyone have recommendations for places to eat
> around UCSD? I will be there on a Sunday in a week or
> two. Looking for a dive-y place to hang out, nothing very
> ritzy or dressy. Also, what’s a good place to knock back a
> few beers around there? Is there a Tied House equivalent?

It had been a long time since I stopped off at UCSD to see friends (and drink beer) before heading down to Baja with surfboards in the back of the Toyota. I still make it down to SD about once a year, but don’t make to many of the beach beer bars anymore. Your best bet is to ask the college kids if they know any good places in Pacific Beach or Ocean Beach (the college kids still probably call them “PB” and “OB”). There is not many beer places near UC since you have La Jolla Farms to the west (Like Atherton, but with water views), Del Mar to the North (Like Los Gatos, but with water views) University Town Center/UTC to the east (like Redwood Shores, but with a mall) and La Jolla to the South (like Hillsborough/Burlingame, but with water views and a sinkhole). PB is south of La Jolla and will have more college kids (a mix of UC, SDSU, and USD) in the bars while OB will have more surfer hippies in the bars. If it is a nice day it is worth the money to have a beer in La Jolla (just down the hill from UC) on the roof top terrace (with an amazing cove view) at Georges
http://www.georgesatthecove.com/ocean-terrace/

74   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 7:08am  

Harney: Lawmaker targets mortgage tax break for larger homes
By Kenneth Harney
Article Launched: 10/11/2007 03:10:34 PM PDT

WASHINGTON - Though the housing and real estate industries oppose the plan, a key House committee leader's proposed "carbon tax" cutbacks on mortgage interest deductions are attracting strong support from environmental and scientific groups.

Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, wants to phase out mortgage interest write-offs for houses larger than 3,000 square feet, using a graduated scale that ends at zero deductions for properties with 4,200 square feet or more.

Though he says he recognizes that newly constructed houses may be "more energy efficient" than older ones, their "sheer size, sprawl and commutes lead to dramatically more energy use - or to put it more simply, a larger carbon footprint."

In his latest draft of the plan, Dingell provides more detail about the housing-related tax elements than he did in earlier versions. The new draft also offers some limited exemptions from the phaseout, including for "historical homes" built before 1900, farm houses, certified energy-efficient homes, and houses whose owners "purchase carbon offsets to make the (property) carbon-neutral."

Under the plan, owners of homes containing 3,000 to 3,199 square feet would be eligible for only 85 percent of the mortgage interest deductions they currently receive. Homes of 3,600 to 3,799 square feet would lose 60 percent of the interest deductions, homes of 4,000 to 4,199 square feet would lose 90

75   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 7:12am  

>>Thanks to Google, we have better restaurants on Castro

You got to be kidding me!!! Oh lord.. please go back to where ever you came from ... what a freaking idiot.

76   SP   2007 Oct 13, 8:59am  

@FAB,
Thanks for the UCSD suggestions. I had been to George's in 2004, a day or two after the big tsunami in Asia. The view was fantastic, and the food was pretty good too. Since we plan to hike around Torrey Pines and then head into town for grub & booze, we may be a little dishevelled for a place like George's.

Someone suggested Karl Strauss Brewery, and a place called Sorella's, which may be more tolerant of casual attire.

SP

77   OO   2007 Oct 13, 9:30am  

SP,

thanks for the suggestions, I've only been to Bodega Bay, never went to Tomales. Just booked a table with Nick's Cove, will write report on the food in 2 weeks.

svcausguy

you probably haven't seen Mountain View prior to Netscape, the food scene there was completely pathetic. Compared to pre-97, what we have today is already heaven.

78   HelloKitty   2007 Oct 13, 10:37am  

Based on this:
"Harney: Lawmaker targets mortgage tax break for larger homes"

I just got a golden brainstorm idea which is this:
"Hello Kitty proposes a law in CA allowing homeowners to move thier prop 13 tax basis to any home of any cost regardless of their age IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE CARBON WASTE INHERENT IN TRAPPING PEOPLE IN THIER HOMES FAR FROM WORK INCREASING COMMUTES DRASTICALLY".

Seriously Id like to see someone so a study on average commute in CA vs the next simliar state(AZ?) I'm positive prop13 traps people into longer commutes (especially dual income people). The idea is to free up more inventory by letting prop 13 owners transfer it to any old home(thus lowering prices). Let freedom ring I say.

We could never pass such a law to 'lower housing prices' but the tactic to 'lower carbon waste, gas consuption, and pollution' will go over very well in CA. (i know it sounds crazy in other states, here in CA it DOES make sense.) You have to have a smog pump on a dirt bike here in CA. Only state that does that, but people will drive 100 miles to work to avoid moving and paying higher prop tax since p13 locks thier low rate as is. CA is insane.

79   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 11:57am  

OO

Im a residend since 1971.. we had some very good Chinese Food back in the day in Castro. The earlier comment placed too much connection with Google. Heck we had some great places back in the 80s much better than today. Too bad many today came to the Bay Area in the Mid 90s and have no clue...

80   justme   2007 Oct 13, 2:53pm  

HelloKitty,

Your Prop 13 scheme will cause a run on all those foreclosures in Manteca (to establish the tax base), immediately followed by a run on the fortress area (to move the tax base to where people want to use it).

Net effect: Lots of paper shuffling, still lots of carbon emitted, huge price run-up in the fortress. You couldn't have come up with a better scheme if your name was Kathy Bridgeman(*),

Of course, what you had in mind was likely opposite, namely lots of fortress selling. That would only be possible if you created an asymmetric version of the rule, so that it applies only to those leaving certain areas or what not.

In any case, I can predict that those damn fortress boomer won't sell until after they start pushing daisies. no matter what you do, short of dismantling prop 13 altogether and bringing everyone to market rate. Then and only then will they run away to Florida.

(*) High-end fortress area realtor that takes out lots of full page ads with her mug shot in them.

81   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 2:55pm  

May I suggest a new thread..
Homeowners skrewed ...

Bidding on new Manteca homes makes 34 new owners ecstatic
But low prices make current neighbors fume
By Julia Prodis Sulek
Mercury News
Article Launched: 10/13/2007 09:23:12 PM PDT

When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
He approached Anderson Homes executive Craig Barton, shook his hand and wished them both luck that the buyers would bid close to the latest asking prices of the 34 homes in the Paseo West subdivision that have been sitting empty since the real estate market soured.

But when the rapid-fire bidding was over 90 minutes later - and one winning bidder stood up like a prize fighter with his arms raised in triumph - Cantrell didn't even want to look at Barton, the man he invited into his home two weeks ago to calm the fears of his 26 neighbors who worried the auction would tank the value of their homes.

"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."

Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.

These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.

82   SP   2007 Oct 13, 3:09pm  

# OO Says:
you probably haven’t seen Mountain View prior to Netscape, the food scene there was completely pathetic. Compared to pre-97, what we have today is already heaven.

Most of the good places in Mountain View pre-date Netscape - Chez TJ, Chef Chu's, Kapp's, Tied House, Del Mar, La Fiesta, Paradise Persian, Clarke's, Hunan-something place on El Camino Real, Don Giovanni's, Le Petit Bistro, Lucy's Tea House, Passage to India (the old one), and a bunch of others that I don't remember...

It is true that there are a many more flashy restaurants now, but many of the new places are just trendy me-too establishments cashing in on the free-spending yuppie crowd. Honestly, I would happily welcome a pre-Netscape version of MtV, but I am afraid it is gone forever.

SP

83   HelloKitty   2007 Oct 13, 3:38pm  

@justme,
ok my plan isnt perfect. Eliminating property taxes altogether would make p13 moot, of course that doesnt exist anywhere so its pointless.

Perhaps in a few years prices will crash, I can buy a house then in 20 years brag to people about my low tax base with the classic:
'I couldnt afford to buy my own house today at these prices!'™

84   losstotheworld   2007 Oct 13, 4:46pm  

sorry different topic
has anyone noticed this
www.newhomesauctions.com
is ythis just to generate more foot traffic and interest?
the ownmers said that this is not a forteclosure auctions.
so is this the suckers auction to catch the fish that might take the bait now?
any comments on this.
specially interested in how the teal landing auctions go

85   svcausguy   2007 Oct 13, 4:53pm  

Exactly Hello Kitty... just like it happened in 1991 prices dropped 40% in California along with interest rates. However you will buy much earlier than 20 years...your neighbors will continue to pay high prop tax for decades while yours will be half. In addition your mortgage will be half of the fools.

86   OO   2007 Oct 13, 5:35pm  

Mortgage meltdown causing Bay Area foreclosures to spike - breakdown by zip code.

Did you foreclose today?

http://tinyurl.com/2fxkcw

87   losstotheworld   2007 Oct 13, 10:52pm  

May I suggest a new thread..
Homeowners skrewed …

Bidding on new Manteca homes makes 34 new owners ecstatic
But low prices make current neighbors fume
By Julia Prodis Sulek
Mercury News
Article Launched: 10/13/2007 09:23:12 PM PDT

When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
He approached Anderson Homes executive Craig Barton, shook his hand and wished them both luck that the buyers would bid close to the latest asking prices of the 34 homes in the Paseo West subdivision that have been sitting empty since the real estate market soured.

But when the rapid-fire bidding was over 90 minutes later - and one winning bidder stood up like a prize fighter with his arms raised in triumph - Cantrell didn’t even want to look at Barton, the man he invited into his home two weeks ago to calm the fears of his 26 neighbors who worried the auction would tank the value of their homes.

“I’m feeling my worst fears right now,” said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors’ homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. “I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I’m screwed.”

Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.

These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn’t sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.

IS THE HOUSE STILL WORTH 391,000? JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE AT AUCTION COMES UP WITH TYHAT KIND OF MONEY?

88   losstotheworld   2007 Oct 13, 10:56pm  

When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
He approached Anderson Homes executive Craig Barton, shook his hand and wished them both luck that the buyers would bid close to the latest asking prices of the 34 homes in the Paseo West subdivision that have been sitting empty since the real estate market soured

AT LEAST DAVE CANTRELL HAS A HOUSE INSTEAD OF A PAPER PROMISE FROM DISNEY BANK. SO EVEN IF HE LOOSES A LITTLE BIT OF IMAGINARY VALUE IN HIS HEAD DONT FEEL SORRY FOR HIM BECAUSE HIS HOUSE WORTH WAS HIS OWN IMAGINATION OF COURSE SOLD BY THE MARKET FORCES.

90   skibum   2007 Oct 14, 2:19am  

oo,

I read that article too. Antioch was always and will still remain really sketch. I remember back in the day constantly hearing about murders and drive-bys from out there.

I also wonder if the Chronicle meant it as irony to show that graphic of foreclosed homes using house symbols that look like monopoly pieces. Are they admitting all these subprime loans amounted to monopoly money?

Yet another SSOTW that makes me want to vomit.

91   skibum   2007 Oct 14, 2:24am  

SP,

Is that musical instrument store still there?

The food sucks there, but that Mongolian BBQ should be in your list of "original" restaurants. There's also Mumtaj when it was there, and Sue's - those were some of my first Indian meals. Then there's the old Wienerschnitzel...

92   Paul189   2007 Oct 14, 3:48am  

Sellers getting screwed by listing agent-

http://tinyurl.com/2sqrwu

93   Peter P   2007 Oct 14, 5:44am  

Since this has turned into a restaurant discussion anyway, does anyone have recommendations for places to eat around UCSD?

We used to go to Fleming's for steaks. I like the way they cook steaks. Crispy outside. Rare inside.

94   justme   2007 Oct 14, 8:23am  

HelloKitty,

>Perhaps in a few years prices will crash, I can buy a house then in 20 years brag to >people about my low tax base with the classic:
>‘I couldnt afford to buy my own house today at these prices!’™

Maybe that is the best outcome I can hope fpr as well :-)

95   anonymous   2007 Oct 14, 11:45am  

Skibum - Nope the musical instrument store is long gone, they have a brand-new shiney Scientology center now though! As a warning they're next to World Beads and any eye contact will result in immediately being hooked up to an e-meter.

96   SP   2007 Oct 14, 12:51pm  

skibum Says:
SP, Is that musical instrument store still there? The food sucks there, but that Mongolian BBQ should be in your list of “original” restaurants. There’s also Mumtaj when it was there, and Sue’s

There is still the old musical store, next to the sewing machine shop. I walked by it a couple of months ago - saw clarinets and violas in the window. The old chinese calligrapher store is also still hanging on, and Spangler's is still doing their bit of grim business. OTOH, both Mumtaj and Sue's are gone. There is a new Indian place where Sue's used to be, but I've never been there.

SP

97   skibum   2007 Oct 14, 1:59pm  

OTOH, both Mumtaj and Sue’s are gone.

Man, I haven't been down there in too long! Plus, I hadn't paid attention to what restaurants were still there or not. Anyways, all the hipster wannabe's hang out in downtown Palo Alto, not MV.

98   Peter P   2007 Oct 14, 3:15pm  

OTOH, both Mumtaj and Sue’s are gone.

I think Sue's is still there... under another name.

99   Peter P   2007 Oct 14, 3:16pm  

Anyways, all the hipster wannabe’s hang out in downtown Palo Alto, not MV.

I speculate that the best restaurants attract the 40-45 crowd. What do you guys think?

100   svcausguy   2007 Oct 14, 4:10pm  

Nope the musical instrument store is long gone, they have a brand-new shiney Scientology center now though!

Last I saw the musical store is still around in MV. the store is across the Scientology center ..actually old Macs musical store in Sunnyvale near Murphy even better is around exept its now under the Hieght Asbury Musical Store or something.

101   svcausguy   2007 Oct 14, 4:14pm  

IS THE HOUSE STILL WORTH 391,000? JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE AT AUCTION COMES UP WITH TYHAT KIND OF MONEY?

Or in another words ... the house that sold for $640,000 earlier wasnt worth that much.

The market value is what someone wants to pay for it... without taking a stupid ARM loan...

102   svcausguy   2007 Oct 14, 4:23pm  

hipster wannabe’s

we had Night Clubs come and go in the SouthBay.. eventually they all close down. The Limeligth on Castro didnt survive regarless of the so called Google money.

The orginal Saddlerack did well over the years...many decades longer than the hipster neon bars...
now that was a stonking great place... no hipsters allowed... no BMWs... no Gucci.... just my Wranglers my pick up truck and some cheap date who did put out with a shot of JD and two Coors. The good old days!!!
I will take SR over Santana Row any day...

103   Duke   2007 Oct 15, 12:11am  

Anyone read the article about the Sydney in Financial sense? It is well worth the very long read.

104   HeadSet   2007 Oct 15, 2:25am  

An example from Patrick:

Let's say you buy a house for $400,000, with a $350,000 mortgage.
Then the house drops in value to $300,000, you lose your job, or otherwise must move.
If you can't make your payments, the bank forecloses on you and nets $250,000 on the sale of your house at auction.
The bank's $100,000 loss on the mortgage is "forgiveness of debt" in the eyes of the IRS, and effectively becomes $100,000 of reportable income you must pay tax on. In many states, like California, the bank issues a 1099 to you for that amount and informs the IRS.

However, from http://realestate.msn.com/selling/Article_bankrate.aspx?cp-documentid=5427263

Home-sale exclusion still applies

There is one bit of good news for our hypothetical homeowner and others dealing with foreclosure-induced taxes. You can get out from under at least part of the IRS bill if you meet the homeownership tax-exclusion rules.

This popular tax break allows a single homeowner who sells his property under the usual circumstances to exclude up to $250,000 profit from taxes; the exclusion is $500,000 for married couples filing jointly.

The exclusion also applies in foreclosures. As long as the "seller," in this case the foreclosed-upon owner, lived in the home as his principal residence for two of the past five years, he can avoid taxes on any capital-gain profit, phantom or real.

It makes you wonder just who the Congress is worried about with the bill to not tax loan forgivenes as income. After all, so many "victims" who lived in their homes for two years are covered anyway.

105   Duke   2007 Oct 15, 2:37am  

To be honest, I think Kay Bell over at Bankrate is incorrect. I think once people try the "debt forgiveness as capital gain from real estate" tactic the IRS will slap them down. Just because Kay is saying it is so, doesn't make it so. Do we have any CPAs? Or Tax attorneys on this sight?

106   a_friend_of_patrick   2007 Oct 15, 3:16am  

Guys,

Don't miss this video: interview with Mort Zuckerman on Housing. This interview came in the last hour.

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-us&vid=fa5ecd48-83c5-4f82-a4e1-ee105c01274b

I feel sorry for 59% for those in denial.

107   HeadSet   2007 Oct 15, 3:18am  

Duke,

You may be right, especially for a short sale. But if a bank forcloses, isn't the transfer price listed as the amount of the loan remainder? Perhaps that would be looked at as the bank "buying" the house for the loan balance.

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