patrick.net

I apologize for going OT, particularly as this thread has remained so very much on.

I've seen two or three stories in the past several hours regarding the lending freeze in China. One of the likely outcomes is repatriation of dollars to the US. As there are some here involved in FX, I thought I should send a heads-up.

Back on topic, the HARM workout protocol with DinOR's refinement is just absolutely admirable. The irony is that lenders would quite possibly come out of your plan better off than they will on their present trajectory. Nice work, guys!

Malcolm-

www.teaparty07.com

I wonder if Marina Prime has a comment on this:

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2007/11/when_good_comps_go_bad_in_the_marina.html

It looks like even people in the Marina will need a payment freeze...

"anon" strikes me as a great Marina Prime candidate. Avoiding a permanent nickname is his style; after all, what's to do when your predictions keep crashing into the bay?

Or "fluj". Definitely the RE cheerleader type...

SP Says:

> Driving home late tonight, I heard an ad on the local
> AM radio for some chap who will “help you eeeliminate
> debt”. Any idea what this scam is?

The ad I hear a lot on AM radio in the Bay Area is not a scam per se, but is just a program that gives simple tips that many stupid Americans don’t know like “you should pay down your 18% credit card debt before the 8% HELOC” and “you can pay off a home mortgage years early by just making one extra payment a year”. It is kind of like an ad promising people an easy way to lose weight and eliminate fat forever that recommends "eating less and exercising more"…

HelloKitty Says:

> What is different about this crash and its a
> MONUMENTAL difference is the dollar amounts
> involved now are staggering on every single
> home. Back in 96 a typical distressed borrower
> paid about 200k in late 80’s and the home was
> worth 150k in the mid 90’s foreclosure boom.

In Southern Cal many homes that sold for ~$150K in the mid 80’s went to $300K in 1990, then back to $150K in 1995 (dropping $30K a year).

Here in the Bay Area many homes that sold for $300K in the mid 90’s went to $1.3mm in 2005. I think that we will have a lot more people running for the doors to rent if we get year over year drops of $100K+.

P.S. Like HK I was also working with bad (commercial) loans in the mid 90’s and would try to make a deal with guys that I liked who tried to work with me and played hardball (and tried to financially ruin) anyone who was an idiot and played games with me…

SP - by "eeeeeeliminate it" they mean they take your money while you wait out the California 4-year statute of limitations. Sure, if you have assets they can be seized/garnished, but you can always do a BK and maybe get out.

It's all very complicated and I feel like a young Lincoln "reading law" in the law library when I go into town, but that's the basic outline of how I think these outfits work.

Looks like a "freeze" on posting lately....

Joe's Murk actually lead with a bear story today. www.mercurynews.com/ci_7547448 Will wonders never cease?

Meanwhile, the NY Times discusses where real mansions - not McMansions TM - are going for cheap. A friend of mine paid $1.5million on a tract home in Los Altos not long ago....look what that gets you now. www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/realestate/25nati.html?_r=1&oref=slogin There's only one problem, which I'm sure the more astute posters here will quickly recognize. :)

Here's just a pathetic intro to the Chron's coverage of "Black Friday":

"The get-up-and-go spirit that helped America settle the West, win two world wars and put a man on the moon isn't dead.

It's just gone to the mall.

Millions of Americans woke before dawn Friday - some never bothered going to sleep at all - to storm the country's shopping centers in search of bargains, hot but scarce products and general shopping fun."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/24/MNBVTHTKM.DTL

I was hoping the opening was tongue-in-cheek, but sadly, as I read on, I realized it was not. We are a pathetic, sorry-ass country.

Believe it or not, some of us in San Francisco, bought a house last fall, took a boring 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.5% (a historically low rate), and avoided the whole adjustable ARM / option ARM / negative amortization BullSh*t altogether. I had so many friends (some of them in finance managment positions with leading firms) and even the banker, telling me I should really consider an ARM…and I told them…absolutely not. I bought a $650K townhouse in SF, after the owner dropped the price about $55K, and then agreed to pay half my closing costs. So then I bought it. San Francisco county just saw a 4.3% increase YOY from '06 to '07. After a year's worth of paying my mortgage, I have about 40K positive equity...but I WILL NOT take out a Home Equity loan, even though the bank sends me offers weekly. There are ways to win in any market...just do NOT follow the herd....too many sheep out there...and now the WOLVES are out to feast...

good_guy,

Congratulations on the home purchase. At least you had the sense to avoid an ARM and/or other exotic mortgage product.

However, I should point out that the "4.3% increase YOY" in SF you quote is not what you think it is. The median price in SF county has increased by 4.3% per last month's stats. But as this board has discussed in the past ad nauseum, median price is a flawed statistic. Most, if not all of that increase you cite is due to a change in the mix of homes sold. Expensive home sales volume is holding up better than lower end sales, so the median gets skewed upwards. Resales of the same house/condo, which is arguably a better measure of the true market trend, has been going down in SF for quite some time now. This has been documented by the Case-Shiller index, and anectodally by sites like socketsite.com.

Basically, it is a fallacy to apply a "4.3% increase YOY" to your purchase price and assume you can now sell your place for $40k more if you chose to do so in today's market.

Welcome to the board, BTW.

skibum, if you had just busted out a credit card yesterday, you would be a respectable American, too. Those Black Friday shoppers stormed the mall like the beaches of Normandy, braving all sorts of inconvinience. It was like Iraq, only with less heat and longer lines. I bet that many liberated home equity on the way. Now that is a Real consumer economy Hero!

Of course, I will now feel compelled to point out---before you write off the rest of the country as a bunch of soulless, clueless fools, just remember that California has a disproportionate number of truly bizarre idiots. This journalist is obviously one of them. Which is why she writes for the Chronicle...

Those Black Friday shoppers stormed the mall like the beaches of Normandy, braving all sorts of inconvinience.

Well Brand,
So we've gone from the Greatest Generation to the Greatest Fool Generation.

God help us all.

Brand Says:
skibum, if you had just busted out a credit card yesterday, you would be a respectable American, too.

I busted out the debit-card... but only to buy petrol at Costco. Damn near $70 right there.

That is about all the 'shopping' you will get out of me... I can't imagine WTF people are still buying and why they think they need it.

good_guy Says:
I have about 40K positive equity…

How do you know? Did you sell it yet? Counting equity before selling is SO 2005.

skibum - good post!

I for one didn't spend a red cent.

I mended the hem (dental floss, yay!) on this fleece "Endwave" sweater I'm wearing, sure it was only about $4 at the Goodwill, and could be found out here for a buck or so, but it's hard to find one that's just right, well worth the mending. Then took a pice of heavy duty cloth I got for a quarter last week at a local Christian thrift, and made yes MADE, a laundry bag. With drawstring. Using dental floss. Punkers and the homeless know how to sew with dental floss, but I actually learned it from the archery folks - they'll repair all kinds of stuff with it. Now I can put my laundry in it and go to the laundromat and get some washing done when the truck's in use.

I not only deprived the "consumermaschine" of money, I created value for myself.

Oh yeah Juicy Local RE Dirt: A family here who've been holding a fairly constant yard sale, turn out to be moving to Florida. They say it's because they have "family support" there. Sounds like RE payment trouble. Family will take them in or at least it's better to be homeless in FL. than here.

Brand Says:
skibum, if you had just busted out a credit card yesterday, you would be a respectable American, too.

Yep, send that borrowed dollar to China. Maybe if enough heros do that, the dollar will get real cheap and spawn a new surge of American exports. After all, the loonie parity has caused a great anount of sales on the US side of the Canadian border. I understand that the stores up there have a hard time keeping enough stock on hand.

Not Serious

ex-sunnyvale-renter Says:

I for one didn’t spend a red cent.

That is no surprise to regular readers of this blog. If I read your posts right, you are a debt refugee who left a trail of stiffed creditors as you hopped a boxcar out of California. Your new austere lifestyle is evidenced by the variety of Hobo survival tips (such as making a laundry bag) that you now post. We would be surprised if you had a cent.

I jest, because you actually sound like a survivor who is keeping good humor about a temporarily down situation.

Headset says: Yep, send that borrowed dollar to China. Maybe if enough heros do that, the dollar will get real cheap and spawn a new surge of American exports.

Actually, I've been saying that for a while. A falling dollar isn't necessarily that bad. A lot of folks on this blog are in high tech. As that 3:1 ratio of Chinese/Indian engineers falls off, this whole intercontinental outsourcing thing will start to look like a push. I bet companies will still do engineering outsourcing, except that they might go to U.S. firms instead.

And God knows we need to bring some manufacturing back here, or the hollow shell of our economy will eventually implode.

Brand,

You are quite right. I just do not like debt to be the engine for a cheaper dollar. A potential issue with your cheap dollar theory is that a low dollar may cause oil to be priced in Euros, and the resulting higher dollar energy costs may force a decline in US living standards rather than a rebirth of domestic manufacturing.

Frankly, I hope we get roasted with rising oil prices. The only way the U.S. will become more energy independent is if the pain far exceeds our threshold for a long time.

Oil will never be priced in Euros alone. Perhaps a separate, smaller exchange could be built around the Euro, but huge industrial economies like the U.S., China and Japan all spend the U.S. dollar for oil. Were OPEC and company ready to make such a change, it could take years, and at that point the U.S. dollar might be strong again, rendering the move pointless.

Besides, a weak dollar is a great deal for OPEC countries. They're getting more dollars per barrel, which they can use to buy more U.S. goods. That's an advantage for them.

Besides, a weak dollar is a great deal for OPEC countries. They’re getting more dollars per barrel, which they can use to buy more U.S. goods.

Are you sure? If OPEC were paid in Euros they would just trade those strong Euros for many weak dollars if they wanted US goods. A wash. Also, a weak dollar may mean less demand for OPEC oil from OPECs biggest consumer.

Hey SP :
Fair enough. Equity should not be counted before you sell. But I think my home value is holding up okay...for better or worse...the 49 square miles of San Francisco is holding up better than the Bay Area overall. Plus, I'm here for the long haul...and don't plan (at least for now), to move for a good 10-15 years....and I'll be happy sitting on my 6.5% fixed rate, 30 year mortgage....I think when the market does come back (post-2009), the banks will hopefully be smarter, make mortgages even harder to get....and truly qualify people for the right financial products....but everyone trying to time the bottom of the SF market...will be in trouble...because when everyone is convinced the bottom is here...they'll all rush in, drive the prices nonsensically higher (again, I'm not defending buyers irrantionality), and prices will shoot back up again....for another cycle of nonsense....

Ooops, I misread your post. Pease disregard Euros comment.

Headset - you describe the situation well. I drove my car out and used it another month or so before turning it into the repo people, and yeah, sadly, my creditors will be um, well, stiffed. Since as recently discovered, all the major banks are engaging in debt collection fraud (selling debts that have been discharged and no longer exist) I'm feeling decreasingly bad about this these days.

But I actually do have more than one red cent right now, in fact I have about 4000 cents lol.

"American Dream"? What BS! So, if I default on my student loan, can I just call it a "dream" and not have to pay it back? If I take a loan for a Yacht that I simply cannot afford/could-not-ever-in-wildest-dreams afford/did not budget for, can I call that beautiful machine a "dream" and have the Governor make all my problems go away? Where is the line drawn in this proverbial sand?

WTF is The Terminator smoking? And, can I have some?

Good_Guy -- Thank you for hanging on to your "investment" and not asking us diligent savers to save your ass too.

So nice that Awnold is so caring for the FB's. Where is he when we are paying nearly $4 a gallon for gasoline? Can we get some of that "dream-exemption" for that too?

Christ on a stick, when can we expect some personal responsibility in CA?

Personal responsibility? The FBs are now a protected class. That's why I got pissed off when I read the thread. It's not that I care about a bank in its own interest renegotiating or working with people on a case by case basis. The governor's involvement legitimizes the FBs by recognizing them as victims and condones the behavior that we had been warning about for years.

Exactly Malcolm. If some bank (in fantasy land) wants to renegotiate terms for a FB, great. Chalk one up on the Karma balance sheet for them. But to legitimize, legalize, such behavior on a State scale is unconscionable and IMHO, WRONG! It means a safe passage for any idiot who can sign their name on the dotted line, no questions asked, all mistakes forgiven, all losses turned into gains. If that isn't Socialism, I don't know what is. All the return, with none of the risk.

Welcome all to the Socialist Republic of Kalifornia, courtesy of an ex-pat from Austria, no less. I am sooo pissed by this move.

I tried to respond Malcom. But I used the S-word, and now is in moderation. S-word meaning Social ist. Maybe that can that get through the moderator's filter?

Sorry, mispelled your name Malcolm. I was 'dreaming' so please forgive me.

hmmm, lets review:

BofA loans 2 billion to countryslide at 8%
Countryslide decides to modify loans at their teaser rates... (less than 8%)
So borrow at 8 loan at 6, and you get to shake the governors hand?
I don't have an MBA, so maybe I miss how this is good for a company...

Oh, but BofA gets to convert that 2billion to stock in countryslide at $15 per share... (well when they inked the deal CFW was north of $20, currently about $10)

Well, poor B of A might not have understood banking or the loan business, its not like they should have any experience in those industries right? Its not like they are a bank or know about loans right?

Even today, it takes a special type of good business sense to lose almost a billion dollars on one transaction, in such a short period of time...

the 3 players who are supposed to bailout housing, countryslide, fanniemae and freddidmac, all took a hammering last week... Boards of directors might suddenly not feel like doing their impression of the fantastic 4 and trying to save the world now...

good_guy Says:
I think when the market does come back (post-2009)

You mistyped 2019. Other than that, good luck.

good_guy Says:

...bought a house last fall, took a boring 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.5% (a historically low rate),

6.5% is historically low only when you talk to RW's, they have been saying that in the past 3-4 years. Instead of counting the 40k equity you should evaluate your ability to pay your mortgage in a job market downturn. If you are good at what you do, then you have a lot less to worry about.

LowlySmart no apologies, it is a very common thing.

Azrob, of course you are correct, I think the reason they would participate in what is essentially a PR stunt is because now they are giving the illusion of being cooperative which opens Pandora's box to even more involvement and bailouts. It is like when a criminal turns state's witness and all of a sudden gets the new job and becomes legitimate.

One random note to add here...the banking, automobile and insurance industries have put us on a debt treadmill by making us believe we need to own cars....To all you folks who own you own hom in a major city....and also work in the city (and can take public transportation to work)...SELL YOUR CAR...and rent out your parking space. My partner and I rent out our parking space for $250 month...and we use Zipcar for cars when we need them. Start collecting rent....and stop fueling the finance, auto and insurance industries with your hard earned money....GIVE UP YOUR CARS whenever possible....oh, and it helps the environment too...

Yes ride bikes if at all possible, and dive into the "car free" and bicycling/bike messengering literature, you'll find it's quite possible.

Tell yourself if you ever need to you can always take a cab, you'll be surprised how little it costs next to having your own car.

If for some reason you live out in the boonies, look at getting an older car with a good repairability index and learn to repair it.

around here, I have 2 mountain bikes in various states of disrepair, one's rideable right now but I plan to get the 2nd one going too (it was a Dumpster special) plus my Honda Rebel plus we have an assortment of gas-guzzlers, trucks, that we actually put very few miles on. There's also a decrepit VW Rabbit that I'm afraid I'll break so I don't drive it. It and the Honda Rebel are about the same discomfort level lol.

Giving up cars whenever and wherever possible is a GOOD idea - I was bike/bus for a long time, then got into cheap motorcycles and scooters, more expensive but still much cheaper than a car.

Gas will be $4 a gallon soon, like after the presidential election. The high price of gas/oil will be one of the major factors in this Depression. Last Depression gas was comparatively cheap. This time it won't be. There *will* be work for the mechanically handy, to make/repair bikes, bike trailers, and such things.

LOL. There's not going to be a depression. We're going to get our ass handed to us on oil, gasoline and natural gas. Much deserved, I might add. But the world might want to purchase American goods again, and that's excellent for all of us.

Recession is a natural part of the economic cycle, especially after two booms in a row. The U.S. needs to buckle down, rediscover its work ethic and then surge out of the recession and into another prosperous era.

good guy and ex renter:

You both are so right. So many people got it so wrong when they're not looking at their transportation cost as part of their housing cost. And also they don't consider the fixed cost of their transportation versus the variable cost of their transportation.

A goal of mine has been to have practical steps to decouple housing from transportation. It means, not living in outyling areas, and living close to functional public transit (in other words, in SC county, that means one of the very few high frequency bus lines). (Counts out the fortress, except for along the El Camino or Stevens Creek).

Another goal is to keep the fixed cost low. I think you know what that means. Because, if the fixed cost is low, then I'm mostly only paying as I use it (fuel, maint.), and not for collision insurance, depreciation. So I think you know what that means working in SV with all the beautiful people: lotsa derisive looks and remarks about the old highly depreciated vehicle in my parking lot.

Some of them smugly remark that their transportation costs are even lower than mine because they drive a Prius. Hah! Call up Toyota and get a quote to replace that battery, which has a finite lifetime spec'd for about 10 years: I think it's something like $8500.