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Are Bernanke's days numbered ?


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2007 Dec 17, 3:20am   17,119 views  131 comments

by StuckInBA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It was always known that Mr Bernanke will have one tough job as the Fed Chairman. The bubble was already at the bursting stage when he took over, and there wasn't any way he (or anyone else) could have kept it going. His real task and challenge was to limit the fallout.

How has he done ? I would say very poorly.

I have no misconceptions about the difficulty of his job. The balance between slowing the damage from the credit crunch, falling USD, rising commodity prices and most difficult - the different expectations of groups with vested political and financial interests. With politicians breathing down his neck, he is in a situation where it is impossible to not antagonize someone.

But the Fed under his watch is turning out to be a PR disaster. The slashing of discount rate on an option expiry day in August was ridiculous and was criticized very strongly. Just last week, the market dropped after the small rate cut, and next day there was an announcement of the TAF (Temporary Auction Facility). The move was in plan for some time, but the timing of announcement creates a perception that Fed is scared of market drops.

Here is one quote from MSN Investor's daily dispatches.
Newsletter writer Tom McClellan of McClellan's Market Report said the Fed's clumsy moves "introduces a new type of risk, which is that we have a central bank in the U.S. which cannot walk and chew gum at the same time."

And another
Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter said he'd lost confidence in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Quite simply, the Fed is losing respect. My bet is after one year, and in less than 2 years, the new Government will appoint a new Fed Chairman. Unless Ben get's his PR act together, which is not very likely if past is any indicator.

StuckInBA

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59   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 8:48am  

What are the typical insurance plan for $50K jobs? HMO piece-of-crap that is next to non-existent.

Bush has a great solution, namely catastrophe insurance and health spending accounts.

60   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:49am  

And yes, for those who have gotten to know me, I do believe in a hybrid economy but I don't see it as being incompatible with his economic model.

61   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 8:50am  

I firmly believe that there must be incentive for people to avoid non-essential health care.

Why visit a doctor just to be told to stay home? People are just way too paranoid about their bodies.

62   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:51am  

Hey Peter, what is the solution for an individual who has health insurance but exceeds the limits of the policy?

On a similar note, should there even be health insurance, or should an individual ever face being bankrupted by a health issue?

63   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 8:53am  

And hospital should charge for emergency room visits. Say, $250 cover charge. The charge can become a tax credit (not deduction) to avoid overburdening the poor.

64   DennisN   2007 Dec 17, 8:54am  

Peter P,

We also need to repeal the FDA. Why should you have to go to a doctor - BY LAW - to get drugs you need? I already know I have high blood pressure, so why shouldn't I be able to go down to Costco and, without a prescription, buy what I need?

65   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:55am  

Peter P Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
"Bush has a great solution, namely catastrophe insurance and health spending accounts."

Barring us adopting a Ron Paul type purely market driven system, I would have to say what you are miscategorizing as the Bush system is the type I would favor. It addresses both of our concerns, not using health care unnecessarily, and having a mechanism kick in when someone has a catastrophic issue.

66   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:56am  

Ron Paul has a very good answer on that link I posted regarding prescriptions.

67   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:57am  

Unlike RP, I don't trust private industry to police itself in the areas of safety or good citizenship.

68   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 8:59am  

Peter P Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
"And hospital should charge for emergency room visits. Say, $250 cover charge. The charge can become a tax credit (not deduction) to avoid overburdening the poor."

But that is just masking a direct government payment which under a different form you would oppose.

69   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:01am  

Hey Peter, what is the solution for an individual who has health insurance but exceeds the limits of the policy?

I think catastrophe insurance can address this issue. The limits should be set very high (e.g. $5M) but the deductible should also be high (e.g. $5000 - $10000).

On a similar note, should there even be health insurance, or should an individual ever face being bankrupted by a health issue?

I believe so, unfortunately.

I am not entirely against a parallel health care system with basic services.

70   HARM   2007 Dec 17, 9:02am  

If Opec decides they want Euros instead of dollars, we will have no options.

If OPEC decides they want Euros, then there will be a booming trade in currency exchange (as we convert dollars to Euros, or dollars to Yen or Rubles, to buy oil). Or we might simply exercise our military/imperial 'option' and seize it outright. But I see little chance of either scenario happening. For all the hot rhetoric (Imperialist Zionist dogs!), I seriously doubt most OPEC countries (who depend on oil exports for their very existence) want a trade war with their biggest customer --the U.S.

71   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:03am  

But that is just masking a direct government payment which under a different form you would oppose.

To someone who works and pays tax, yes.

72   HARM   2007 Dec 17, 9:04am  

@SIBA,

I am not against RP, I just don't agree with his 'purist' Libertarian views/policies 100%.

73   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:04am  

OK buddy, but a catastrophic policy as you just described is exactly the type of MSA that you just called the Bush plan that you didn't like.

74   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:08am  

Peter P Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
"But that is just masking a direct government payment which under a different form you would oppose.
-To someone who works and pays tax, yes."

So why not compromise, make all medical treatments deductible, have a market driven system for the 80% low cost stuff, and catastrophic coverage for everyone (debatable who pays what)? In other words MSAs with universal catastrophic coverage.

75   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:10am  

HARM Says:
December 17th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
"@SIBA,
I am not against RP, I just don’t agree with his ‘purist’ Libertarian views/policies 100%."

I don't either, but I do agree with at least 80% very strongly which is why I think we should unite and get this guy elected.

76   HARM   2007 Dec 17, 9:15am  

What Malcolm said (re: Ron Paul).

77   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:16am  

So why not compromise, make all medical treatments deductible, have a market driven system for the 80% low cost stuff, and catastrophic coverage for everyone (debatable who pays what)? In other words MSAs with universal catastrophic coverage.

That is better. You are right.

78   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:31am  

Here's a fun concept. I believe that RP still uses the full power of government but he transfers the regulation to the judicial branch instead of the legislative branch. He does this by really raising property rights and then using easy access to courts for society to have a social check on business. This applies to pollution and environmental issues. It is the most cost effective way of regulation. I've always resented the current environmental policies of businesses proving compliance. I believe government should set standards but allow the public the power to monitor and then bring action against a business shown to not be in compliance.

79   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:34am  

The flaw becomes that industry will pollute lower income areas because they would lack knowledge or motive to hurt a local employer, but then again we already have that problem so one can only hope the change would shuffle things around a little.

80   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:38am  

RE: environmental laws

The government can set an exchange-tradable pollution quota. This way, the environment can be protected by Free Market as well.

81   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:45am  

Do you favor market traded pollution credits or did I misunderstand the posts I read where you were not in favor of carbon credits? Obviously credits would have to be issued in groups like specific chemicals but I think you might have been debating someone on the global warming issue and not specifically on industry emissions. PC for pollution.

82   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:53am  

Do you favor market traded pollution credits or did I misunderstand the posts I read where you were not in favor of carbon credits?

I basically said that IF "global warming" is real then carbon credit is the only solution.

I consider CO2 as a pollutant. I just do not agree with the linkage between it and the alleged "global warming" theory.

I am not against carbon credit trading. I am just against forming policies based on the assumptions proposed by "global warming" theorists.

I love the environment as much as anyone else.

83   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:56am  

Of course. I actually resent people who try to say someone doesn't like children or the environment merely because they have a different solution. Thanks for clarifying.

84   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 9:57am  

Bap, why do you hate the environment?

85   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 9:59am  

if you trade pretend credits, the net sum remains even. the gain is zero. the act is silly. In my opressed opinion.

What about fiat money and financial derivatives? Are they pretend credits or are they real? ;)

86   justme   2007 Dec 17, 10:33am  

Ron Paul will lose the nomination, run as an independent, choose Admiral James Stockdale (dead or alive) as his running mate, and ensure that we get Obama'08. Nice.
Maybe I should have sent him some (Fiat) money yesterday? Thanks RP, now RiP.

On a more serious note, Ron Paul will never ever ever ever fly with the Republican establishment. He is much too principled for them, There is nothing they fear more than a real, principled conservatist (not in most dictionaries, but you get the idea:)). That's worse than a democrat, in their book.

Ron Paul doesn't have much of a chance stealing votes from real progressives. He does have certain sensible positions, but he's too much of a kook for them.

87   OO   2007 Dec 17, 10:46am  

RP represents an idealism of the past, when America was first founded while much of the land and resources were unaccounted for. Unfortunately we are living in a much more crowded environment with land ownership well carved out and population growth slowing down, his kind of isolated "conservatism" will never work in this much more entangled world.

The true disappointment of RP is he cannot even come up with a practical Medicare policy while being an obgyn himself. Somebody from his team should at least come up with a PLAN. Just leaving everything to the free market is not going to fix medicare, because a truly free and market-driven competition will naturally dictates that weak and poor genes be completely wiped out. There is no market-driven reasons why poor and sick people should get medical attention at all! Is that acceptable for our civilization?

If you leave issues like medicare, education and national defense to the free market, you might as well abolish the notion of government altogether, and since there will be no government, what is he running for?

88   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 10:55am  

OO raises part of the 20% that I can't quite reconcile with him. I think with RP we have a chance to take a necessary step back and reevaluate the social model.

89   e   2007 Dec 17, 10:56am  

If you leave issues like medicare, education and national defense to the free market, you might as well abolish the notion of government altogether, and since there will be no government, what is he running for?

Wasn't that the Republican platform in 2006 - the Contract With America?

Vote for us and we'll relieve you of governmental intereference?

90   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 10:58am  

Contract with America was in 1994.

91   surfer-x   2007 Dec 17, 11:11am  

>> Ron Paul will save us all.

Yes, I am voting for this honest and wise main in 2008….

yes, you and the other 8 people on the internet.

92   surfer-x   2007 Dec 17, 11:13am  

now this is just shocking

tinyurl.com/28fo4o

"Now I look like a woman with normal breasts,"

No actually you look just like a boomer with big fake tits.

93   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 11:21am  

Oh man you want to talk about boomers, let me tell you about my weekend.

I went to Mexico on a bus trip (5 hours each way, w an extra 2 hour border wait on the way back) to look at some land on the Sea of Cortez. Let me tell you, you want to fill a bus full of obnoxious boomers just tell them they can buy a parcel of land with no qualifying and they can use a credit card for the 10% down. I didn't see any value proposition whatsoever so I just enjoyed a $100 weekend in San Felipe, but these boomers actually bought. They paid $70,000 for 1/4 acre lots 3 miles from a pretty nice beach. They were the usual big talking, nothing in the bank ugly people from Phoenix.

94   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Dec 17, 2:54pm  

Those b*st*rds, changing the rules on the US Savings Bonds.

I just read in this week's Economist a short article comparing/contrasting what's the same, what's different, between the Japanese banking problems in the early 1990's, and what's going on in the USA now.

One thing the article mentioned, was that when the Japanese banks were looking shakey, small depositors moved their savings from commercial banks to the Postal Savings Accounts.

We don't have Postal Savings Accounts. Instead, we have US Savings Bonds. As you probably know, the treasury has changed the rules effective Jan 1: the limit has been lowered from 60K per year per buyer to 5K per year per buyer.

Those b@stards. They're doing an endaround on us to takeaway an alternative to the banks for us small depositors.

That's what it's all about, or certainly looks that way. Next thing, they'll start putting stricter currency controls like Mitterand tried in France in the early 90's. The ETF's like GLD and physical bullion will be next. Then we'll have no alternatives to bank deposits or stocks.

B@stards.

95   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 3:29pm  

Bap, actually some laws were supposidly changed in the early 90s which allow foreigners to own on the coasts as well as having always been able to own in the interior. Now you even get American title insurance but it is one of those deals where people 'buy' but don't get the deed til it is all paid for, many of them won't end up paying for it, the developer will just 'sell' it again to the next guy and that is really how they keep the cash flow coming in on these giant subdivided parcels.

96   Malcolm   2007 Dec 17, 3:34pm  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFTi96HZP1g

This is the actual presentation dinner we attended before going down there. He details the supposed facts and myths. It is pretty down there but in the end you pay $300K to be 7 miles from the Sea of Cortez. I own my house which I paid 180K in 2000, and I am about that far from Oceanside beaches, I just don't have the sliver view of the water that they would but then again I have a sewer and won't be buying water from a water truck or waiting 2 hours to cross the border. There also isn't a carpet of trash everywhere where I live.

97   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 4:02pm  

Why do we even need US Savings Bond? Can't people just buy T-Bill/Note/Bond?

98   Peter P   2007 Dec 17, 4:03pm  

Then we’ll have no alternatives to bank deposits or stocks.

Or SIVs, CDOs, etc. :)

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