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Counterparty risk and bubble hedging


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2007 Dec 20, 3:59am   19,588 views  94 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

While the sheer volume of bubble/hedge fund/MBS-CDO implosion stories appearing in the news daily nowadays, it can be difficult to pick out the "pearls" among the pebbles, or the truly extraordinary items from the mundane "yet another Wall Street multi-billion-dollar write-down". (Btw, amazing to see bubble implosion lead headlines every day on Bloomberg, MSNBC & CNNMoney, etc. compared to just 2-3 years ago, isn't it? Any long-timers remember Face Reality, Fake P, MarinaPrime, CuriousCat, DAiryQueen, etc. brushing off our concerns as Chicken Little, doomster hand-wringing?).

This one recently caught my eye, and stayed in the back of my mind (via Tanta with Calculated Risk):

“It’s a zero-sum game. If you put trades on that worked so well that you bankrupt your counterparty, you will not collect on those trades.”

--Jim Keegan, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at American Century Investments

I've often read MSM quotes from Wall Street outfit bigwigs (Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Chase, Citibank, etc.) to the effect that, "Even if all these MBSs/CDOs, derivatives, swap agreements & $Trillions in other financial Dark Matter go 'boom!', we're ok, dude. 'Cuz we, like, hedge 'n stuff."

Apparently, (if I'm reading Jim Keegan correctly), if your "insurance company" goes belly-up, then you "may" have a problem collecting on that insurance policy. So, I guess it comes down to a case of gambling --even on the bearish/short side-- is *still* gambling?

Am I interpreting this correctly?

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#bubbles

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70   DinOR   2007 Dec 21, 6:51am  

"he waited until the peak of the bubble in October 2005 to sell it $4.4 mm."

FAB, I was unaware of that transaction but it certainly sounds like you were intimate with it? I'm sure Warren owns a LOT of things I'm unaware of.

The one I was referring to was:

www.nypost.com/seven/11052006/business/buffet_is_way_wrong_at_home_business_suzanne_mcgee.htm

I think it's just grand Mr. Manchester paid $3.5 mil. in Nov. of 2006 and was STILL able to turn a profit (after spending "several" hundred thousand in improvements). Ahem, care to define "several" Richard?

The authwhore completely and conveniently glosses over the fact that WB's profit (more than triple) in 9 years was done on a much lower risk-to-reward ratio and was treated as a long term gain! While flipper boy was able to eke out a profit, it was all taxed at the higher rate and if I might add, at much greater risk! Having $50 mil. in client assets might impress in OR but in Laguna Beach, sorry, that's a piker.

71   DinOR   2007 Dec 21, 7:00am  

Please try this OC Register link. It actually is a little more sexed up anyway.

www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_719509.php

72   anonymous   2007 Dec 21, 8:46am  

OO - yes it's a Ponzi scheme, and if double-income wage-slaves aren't going to drop plenty of kids, then we have to import people to do the sexual acts and procreation Americans won't do!

So, unless the US turns Mormon or keeps the flow of fertile illegals flowing, you, sir, will not be able to retire.

73   EBGuy   2007 Dec 21, 8:53am  

A tale of two markets:
It's a similar story in the East Bay, where it would take about 2.25 months to sell all the homes now for sale in the Oakland hills but 15.7 months to churn through the inventory in Hayward, based on sales averages this year and multiple listing service data.

74   anonymous   2007 Dec 21, 9:26am  

Would as in, Would based on sales this time last year. Or Should? Could?

75   Richmond   2007 Dec 21, 9:48am  

If you lived in the Oakland hills, why would you want to move? The whole east bay ridge has, in my opinion, some of the best views in the entire region, even the world. It really is staggering. Who wants to live in the flat lands. Hence 2.25 vs. 15.7 months.

76   PermaRenter   2007 Dec 21, 11:05am  

>> I am amazed at the proliferation of fertility clinics in the BA, and they are not covered by medical insurance.

Indian and Chinese couples likes two children. Dual income couples are turning infertile. These folks typically buys home before having children. However, infertility sets in due to age, stress etc. After buying expensive house, these folks then spend money to get pregnant.

Overall infertility treatment is a great business in Bay Area.

77   Richmond   2007 Dec 21, 11:39am  

A buddy of mine and his wife did the whole infertility treatment gig. They ended up having twins. Their joke is that they got a twofer. Worked out well for them.

78   cb   2007 Dec 21, 2:26pm  

Incidentally, he commented at the same seminar that he thinks Canadian oil sand will head for higher values in the next few years, which is consistent with his major stake in BNI and a couple of undisclosed railways

Maybe the oil sand boom can rescue Arizona's RE market...

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/12/17/realestate-sunbelt.html

79   surfer-x   2007 Dec 21, 3:10pm  

buys home before having children.

I think may have meant, buys homes befores havings mores chindians

80   surfer-x   2007 Dec 21, 3:11pm  

moot,
moot,
moot,
moot,
moot,

HARM, how's it swinging? Mrs X is ready, you still want one? Give us a call.

81   Peter P   2007 Dec 22, 2:42am  

The illegals are leaving!

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/12/22/immigrants.leave.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

Me think this is because their illegally-mortgaged homes are now under water.

82   PermaRenter   2007 Dec 22, 3:25am  

>> The illegals are leaving!

Take a look at the currency component growth, it is well over 10%. Why so strong given that pretty much everything is paid for by credit/debit cards and checks.

Oh, I forgot, illegal immigarnts like to take their payment in the form of cash, or if they have bank accounts and want to send money home, many withdraw the money in cash.

By they way, a number of those sub-prime loans to illegal immigrants, especially in California. Those who made profits and wanted to send the profits home may have done so by cash. I suspect some of our money supply has simply been exported, we just don't know how much.

83   azrob   2007 Dec 22, 3:33am  

exactly how does a discussion of counterparty risk and hedging get turned into the typical low class trash class people's race blaming????

84   anonymous   2007 Dec 22, 6:27am  

Remember folks .... I am not the only one in the US populace whose small biz failed, got in credit trouble, and am now effectively not allowed to get up again.

There's always been a certain portion of the US population who are in the underground, cash-only economy. But the way things are set up now, take my case - if I work, it's garnished or siezed. If I declare BK, the IRS will tax the amount of forgiven debt, creating another mathematically-impossible amount to repay. Repeat the seizure/garnishment scenario.

Supposedly in the US if you fail you are allowed to get up again. Well, you are not.

Now, we are going to have MILLIONS in my situation, many in deeper because they bought a house.

What are they going to do? Work and it gets taken. Keep a bank account and it gets taken.

Thus, they're going to farm, forage, gather, become freegans, work in the underground economy in various ways.

Thus, we're already seeing a rise in cash-only trade, I'd expect it to increase greatly.

In fact if I can make it as a street musician or whatever the hell I'm going to do that works, I'm going to be very tempted to turn my USbucks into junk silver coins which I'll bury.

Just like the fall or Rome....

85   anonymous   2007 Dec 22, 6:28am  

Oh and to mitigate the racial angle, more cash transactions do not necessarily mean more "illegals" doing stuff all-cash. Yes they live their lives all-cash, but millions of Americans who can trace their roots back to the Mayflower are going to be living all-cash too.

86   Peter P   2007 Dec 22, 6:38am  

Those who made profits and wanted to send the profits home may have done so by cash. I suspect some of our money supply has simply been exported, we just don’t know how much.

Well, it is their money and they are free to export cash legally.

87   PermaRenter   2007 Dec 22, 6:54am  

'Green Card Marriage' ad nets arrest
Story Highlights
Feds allege Russian and husband engaged in sham marriage over green card

Yuliya Kalinina accused of placing "Green Card Marriage" ad on Craigslist

Woman's attorney says client didn't know it was illegal to marry for green card

Agent: It may be first criminal case in which Web allegedly used for sham green card

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- At least she was being honest.

Yuliya Kalinina, 24, spelled out exactly what she was looking for in a husband in her Internet ad:

"Green Card Marriage -- Will pay $300/month. Total $15,000," the Russian national wrote in an ad placed on the Craigslist Web site. "This is strictly platonic business offer, sex not involved."

The ad caught the attention of the man who would eventually marry her on February 17, 2006. But it also alerted agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Kalinina, from Russia, and her husband, Benjamin C. Adams, 30, were arrested last week for what federal prosecutors allege was a sham marriage.

Robert Schoch, special agent in charge of ICE investigations in Los Angeles, said it is the first criminal case he is aware of in which people allegedly used the Internet to engineer a sham marriage for a green card. Watch as the Craigslist ad for a husband lands the woman in trouble »

Attorney Dale Rubin, who is representing Kalinina, said she didn't know it was illegal to marry for a green card, which he said was evidenced by the blatant language in her ad.

Adams' attorney, public defender John Littrell, declined to comment to the Los Angeles Times.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

88   Malcolm   2007 Dec 22, 7:14am  

Bap33 Says:
December 21st, 2007 at 4:19 pm
"When I read where Richmond wrote “extra Illegals” … I laughed at the thought of some illegals being more illegal than others… “extra illegal”. Admit it, that’s kinda funny."

An extra illegal alien is someone who comes across the border illegally while smoking a cuban cigar.

89   Peter P   2007 Dec 22, 7:18am  

An extra illegal alien is someone who comes across the border illegally while smoking a cuban cigar.

LOL :lol:

90   Richmond   2007 Dec 22, 11:30am  

Ok, maybe I should have said "surplus" illegals.
I love the Cuban cigar twist, though.

91   PermaRenter   2007 Dec 22, 12:20pm  

Facing jail for slavery, NRI couple to lose house too

Published on Wed, Dec 19, 2007 at 13:34 in World » World360 section

HOME TRUTH: Mahender and his wife operated a worldwide perfume business out of their home

New York: Held guilty of modern day slavery and awaiting sentences, Mahender and Varsha Sabhnani, a wealthy business couple are set to lose their million-dollar house in Long Island near here.

India born Mahender, 51, and Indonesia-born Varsha, 45, are naturalised US citizens, who face around 20 years in prison after both were convicted for imprisoning and torturing two Indonesian maids in their house over a period of five years.

Federal court jurors in Central Islip unanimously decided Tuesday that the Sabhnanis' property in Muttontown was used in the commission of a crime and must be forfeited to the government.

The Sabhnanis operate a successful worldwide perfume business out of their Muttontown home.

The allegations against the couple included forcing the maids, identified only as Samirah and Enung, to work over 18 hours a day, beatings with brooms and umbrellas, slashings with knives and being made to repeatedly climb stairs and take freezing showers.

The same jury Monday had convicted the couple of imprisoning and torturing the two maids.

The Sabhnanis' case had received wide publicity in the US as well as abroad because prosecutors called it a rare instance of modern day slavery.

Their lawyers said the jury was taken with the histrionics of the maids, and plan to appeal.

92   Peter P   2007 Dec 22, 12:21pm  

I have no respect for any person who mistreats his domestic workers.

93   SP   2007 Dec 22, 11:15pm  

New topic: Predictions on what 2008 will bring?

94   wzweifler   2008 Jan 4, 5:15am  

BUYING DISTRESSED DEBT --- SOON
The sequence from counterpary default to contrarian opportunity.
We will buy distressed debt because we see the following sequence of events:
1. Credit rating downgrades
2. Counterparty defaults and abandonment
3. Further price weakness in distressed debt
4. Buying opportunity at deep discounts
5. Modest recovery in tranches and individual mortgage paper followed by material recovery in most of the acquired portfolio
Recent entry into the bond guaranty sector by a high profile investor suggests that buying the lender / or counterpary at a deep discount might be a preferred strategy for the very well endowed investor.
We want to talk to others who share our enthusiasm for this contrarian investment strategy on a smaller scale.

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