patrick.net

PermaRenter,

Now that McD has started marketing McCoffee products, SBUX will loose the aura of exclusivity and go down the drain.

An interesting question is, what will be the next fad....

Also in the news, Bush is rattling his saber against Iran, based on the supposed provocation in the persian gulf.

Here's my question: Where is the Navy video of what happened and where is the tape of the supposed radio threats? I would like them to be published, analyzed and authenticated.

justme: the tapes are still in production; apparently there was some problem finding anyone who speaks farsi.

Shoot first, ask questions after you can find a translator?

Requiem,

They already had a translation that indicated a threatening radio message.
But now they need another translator for the msesage. Sounds fishy.

By the way, where did you read that they needed a translator?

I didn't, I'm just making snarky comments about how easy it is to release a "translation" but it takes some time to make the original if you can't find anyone who speaks farsi /and/ passes the political loyalty tests.

/joking

Ah, requiem, you were way ahead of me. Sorry.

I'm also waiting to see some "production values", as they call it in Hollywood.
:-)

Malcom,

I've also noticed LV flirting w/ 2001-2002 pricing. At peak 185k would not have purchased a "repartment". Now it's a 1,600+ sq./ft. SFH! Like yourself, I spoke w/ a great many people that scoffed at the notion they would EVER be revisiting this pricing model.

Additionally NV has done away w/ stated income loans and this has accelerated the process. What has surprised me is Palm Springs prices seem to be holding up quite well? Any local observations from the SoCal crowd?

skibum

I'm still around. Not lurking often, but I scan the blog a couple times a month or so.

I'm on extended mental break from the housing crisis. We're still renting and preparing to escape our current McMansion rental for something more comfortable that will take us through 2009/2010 if need be. Home prices here in Marin aren't budging much, and foreclosures aren't helping much yet. I follow PropertyShark and ForeclosureRadar pretty closely, but anything halfway decent gets snapped up by some realtor-investor somewhere and relisted at a bloated market price.

I spent a few weeks wrestling with realtors on Zillow's forums mistakenly thinking that would serve as some form of free anger therapy. Instead it just proved to me that we're doomed. The level of ignorance among the realtor-set demonstrated there is astounding. More distressing is the willingness of "normal" people to listen to them over folks like those who read and post here. I get a headache just thinking about some of the tripe that passes over there...

I'm planning to relaunch my blog in coming weeks, but it will probably be taking on more of a software industry focus and less of a general economic rantings vibe. I'm hoping to unload the remaining realtors and second life cultists who thrive off of sending me monthly hate mail...

...and most importantly, happy new year to everyone!

Patrick, HARM, et al.:

One of these days you should start a thread on anecdotes of crazy debt-to-income DTI levels. I have a couple of odd stories for you. It would be interesting to see who knows the story of the highest DTI ratio.

Randy H,

Happy New Year to you as well! Can we still read your blog by going to Capitalism 2.0?

StuckInBA Says:

RE cycles are so much slower. Anyone who wanted to sell had all the time in the world to do it. To me this was nothing but slow. It has taken almost FOREVER for borrowers, lenders, policy makers and everyone involved to come to their senses. And they are still trying hard to avoid coming to their senses.

I think malcom said it well. We all knew what was coming but a lot of folks looked other way. How else can we explain big financial institutions holding the bag.

@Randy H,

Good to hear from you, and thanks for the update from up there. I'm not really surprised - I've come to the conclusion that to even want to be a Realtor, you not only need to possess utter obliviousness to surrounding economic realities but more importantly an eternally optimistic outlook. These guys are never going to sell homes as curmudgeons and wet blankets.

It's like they're the grasshoppers and we're the ants, only in the end, the government bails out the grasshoppers and steals from the ants' winter stores.

wow CFC @ 6.60

Survival for Those in Foreclosure

http://www.theseuncertaintimes.blogspot.com/

Wow sa, that's amazing. That's about as low as Accredited Home Lenders got when I was shorting them. I wonder if they will survive.

I still do get a laugh out of imagining realtors accepting skibum as one of their professional peers.

Hi DinOR, that is interesting about Palm Springs. Personally I could never live there, I like to visit it every now and then but I guess there are enough people who want to be there that it has stickier prices. That is a tough place to get a reasonably priced hotel room during any kind of event.

beignet,

That article sounded like a "how to" book for predatory borrowers about gaming the system for a few months, all justified by FBs claiming victim status from an evil lender.

There is a similar article in the Patrick Housing Crash News "Dumping Your House?" California Rosenthal Fair Debt Collection Practices Act which protects consumers from creditor harassment when they are represented by an attorney. If a lender contacts you after you tell them you are represented by an attorney, that you refuse to pay, and not to call you ever again, then they must stop or they are liable for statutory damages of up to $1,000 per act.

Gives it the feel of the Ambulance Chaser ads you see on TV.

Great to hear from you, Randy! Kudos for trying to break through the Gold Wall of Propaganda. The ignorance of basic economics and real estate routinely demonstrated by so-called "experts" could fill the Library of Congress, with enough left over for the Grand Canyon.

I recall trying the same on a few Realtor blogs and having my posts deleted almost immediately. No profanity, no vulgarity, not even a snide "told ya so" tone --just facts, logic and sources. And yes, the public *still* trusts used house salesmen as though they were impartial experts and fiduciaries operating in their best interests. Some are slowly learning otherwise. The rest will never learn and get sheared again on the next up-cycle.

That’s about as low as Accredited Home Lenders got when I was shorting them. I wonder if they will survive.

But Orange Man said during last results that they will be profitable in the coming quarter. You mean you don't trust him ?

Orange man eventually might be fitted for an orange jumpsuit, what with all the "re-created" letters never actually sent to borrowers and all. He'll be in (BK) court well before that day, though, given their recent stock performance.

Are we gonna see 11K for DOW?

baignet - good site. We'll see a lot more like that.

When there are millions broke and homeless, it's going to be pretty hard to pretend it hardly happens to anyone.......

sa -- the Dow is at about 8000 for those dealing in Euros.

[OT]
(very) Long time lurker here. Decided to pop in and wish everyone a Happy New Year but had some trouble getting a login so gave up. Had to try again today though, because Randy H has resurfaced. I have appreciated the information all of you have provided here and have benefited mightily by not buying. However, I always had a special appreciation for a select few of the posters here, Randy being one of them. When he vanished, I felt a gigantic void. Call it not a mancrush as it isn't; maybe a SavedFrombeingFB_Crush? Anyway, Happy 2008 to all and Randy, I hope you pop back in from time to time with your analysis. Good luck with the blog relaunch!

"re-created"

Is that anything like... forged? Funny thing was their legal dept. supposedly sent the letter to an address the borrower wouldn't have been living in yet at the time!

CFC is coming dangerously close to becoming a non-marginal security. What happens then...?

ex-sunnyvale-renter Says:
January 8th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
"sa — the Dow is at about 8000 for those dealing in Euros."

Interesting point, so with the weakening dollar, the DOW figure is actually masking an even weaker market. The solution, lower rates some more, and crank up the printing presses.

Not to confuse anyone so I'll add the footnote, basically the 12,600 today isn't the same 12,600 it was 6 months ago.

>> Are we gonna see 11K for DOW?

I am rooting for it. Very happy to see DOW and dollar decline so far ...

Countrywide Stock Plummets
Countrywide Shares Tumble, Lender Denies Bankruptcy Rumors

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, plunged Tuesday after the company denied rumors that it was planning to file for bankruptcy protection.

The stock fell $2.13, or more than 28 percent, to $5.51 in afternoon trading after sinking to a 52-week low of $5.05.

In a prepared statement earlier in the day, the company said there was "no substance to the rumor that Countrywide is planning to file for bankruptcy, and we are not aware of any basis for the rumor that any of the major rating agencies are contemplating negative action relative to the company."

RE: CFC, funny thing is, they are still advertising great rates on CD's to Countrywide Bank, easily 100bp, up to 200bp better than most competitors. D'ya think they're in dire need of cash???

Airlines... any day of the week.

Retailers? Occasionally.

Mfrs? It's not unheard of,

But a Mortgage Lender?! C'mon people, when was the last a ML had to declare BK? Anyone?

Maybe Buffet will buy CFC now !

I sold my CFC put long time ago, but I am still happy - the sooner they disappear from this planet the better.

“re-created”
Is that anything like… forged?

LOL ! There is no end to the surprises. Isn't there a point when people realize not to do stupid things anymore ? I mean enough already. CFC deserves the financial version of the Darwin award.

I guess BAC got a "sweet deal" when they invested in CFC at 18$ thinking there is no way to "loose" !

(HARM : Check out http://tinyurl.com/2n342y Nice surprise, if you haven't seen it yet)

A very good confirmation of bear market today. I hope everyone's puts and shorts worked out beautifully so far. Let's ride the market down and make our money (that is not tied up in RE) work hard.

Randy, welcome back. Good to know that you have decided to hold out till 2010. You mentioned considering renting two adjacent condo units before, is that what you plan to do? Are you up in Marin or have you relocated down to Peninsula?

OO :

This one is for you.

http://tinyurl.com/2agbq2

Stuck,

thanks. That's why I have always said one has to short individual stocks that are already weak in a weak sector, and stay away from shorting indices.

PPT has limited resources, they cannot and will not buy up BBBY, CC, or companies in industries without the closest ties to White House. Don't short Goldman, don't short BOA, but there are plenty of other choices that you can short to your heart's content and never worry about PPT ruining your day. You think PPT will care to save WSM? I don't care if the indices are heading up, I just care that the individual stocks that I short are hitting new low.

Do your homework. There are lots of loser companies in loser industries waiting to hit new low as the American housing ATM runs dry. Pay particular attention to retailers without much overseas presence.

Then the travel companies. Will PPT care if CCL hits new low? Will PPT care if CALC goes bankrupt?

The only problem of shorting these losers is the availability of share for borrowing. That is more of a worry than PPT.