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If there are any Realtors(TM) left for you to talk to, that is:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0109/p01s02-usec.html?page=1
From SFWoman's link, it gave me a laugh. Note the age heh heh
"As many train for new careers, return to old ones, or wait tables until prices rebound, the plight of the real estate agent – average age, 51 – reveals the human dimension of how loose lending, raw opportunity, and self-determination produced a housing bust that has stunned the US economy.
"They've tasted success and big money, and now their standard of living has been rocked and reality has set in," says John Baen, a real estate professor at the University of North Texas in Denton. "The whole [economy] has been built on real estate. When the music stops, what is left?" "
Was it SP that said it would simply be easier to list the homes that AREN'T For Sale?
Just watching Barbara Corcoran on CNBC w/ Diana Olick and Steven Moore (WSJ) and Barbara says; "You may say I'm smoking dope on this one but all this RE market needs, all... it needs is for the War to end! All this market needs is one piece of good news"
(Olick and Moore bust a gut)
Yes Barb, we think you're smokin' dope. And this is one of the country's "top" realtors? Barb, no one would like to see an end to the violence more than the folks at Patrick.net but does ANYONE here see any relationship between the two? Anyone?
For their sake there better not be a relationship. The only other example would be 1990 with the 1st Gulf War, that happened to be when houses last suffered, and that continued for about seven years after the war ended.
"They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning and commodities"
Really Dr. Baen? Really. Commodities. You mean commodities like ceiling high stacks of 2X4's at Home Depot? Brokerage firms have a fresh crop of grads to pick from every spring. Why would they EVER opt to hire a 51 y.o w/ no experience (no degree) and last but not least, no book of clients (with assets and proven record of gross production) to bring on board?
Maybe American Family Insurance and Pre-Paid Legal are hiring off of C/L but the rest you can forget about! Thanks for the article SFWoman!
See that's funny 'cause I get commodities "pitched" to me all the time (just usually not by 51 y.o housewives?)
Yeah, the failed realtors will be readily absorbed into the Merrill Lynch Trainee Program! They can go back to the 3 people they sold starter homes to (and had to lie on their mortgage app. to get THEM qualified) as "clients". It'll be great!
But DinOR,
"These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone,"
Getting on the phone equals hard work :)
Really DinOR, your pessimism is too much. These people have a lot to offer a company. They offer a discrimination lawsuit if they're not picked because they are a protected class now.
Most realtors DREAD getting on the phone! Many simply refuse to do it. Occupying space at an Open House is more their pace. Kieth at HP runs a thread-a-day about realtwhores returning to their their fast food jobs (which gets kinda old) so the CSM article is the first sober discussion I've seen on the topic.
"Getting" on the phone is one thing (getting people to BUY on the phone) is quite another! Believe it or not getting some towing company owner in Hackensack, NJ to buy 50-100k in stock/commodities off of ONE phone call, really is a skill.
One thing I will... agree w/ Dr. Baen on is that these people are migratory. The tough part is there's no "next big thing" (without barriers to entry) for them to migrate TO!
Thank God for the Do Not Call Registry. The last thing I want ruining dinner is some smoker coughing boomer hag calling to tell me it's cold outside so I need to buy some heating oil futures. Yikes!
Some where in the article they made mention of CA standing by to get 9 mil. in "REIC re-training" dollars. What a joke. Most of these people never had any training to begin with?
Man, that IS... an ugly visual!
I'm pretty sure most of these people won't wind up as "strippers" (as Kieth insists) but it would be interesting to see where posters here visualize them winding up?
If they were 1099's my guess is that a new "line of work" (commission based) would allow them to have a whole new run at Schedule C and they could perhaps be of "some" use to their spouse by "bundling" their write-offs? If they wind up in a new "racket" every 3 years they might be able to exploit it to Soc. Sec?
I love that the article even mentions Gilbert, AZ. My poor friend worked at Intel in Phoenix and actually listened about holding off on buying. He had to put up with all the other know it all engineers who thought he was unable to buy. They would make comments like, "Don't worry man, you'll get a bonus soon enough to put down on a place." This guy actually has substantial savings.
I hope my old know it all other friend who actually is in Gilbert got out in time because if he hasn't he's lost all his equity.
"As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher. "
One more for me just because I can't resist. Can someone define 'unreliable buyers'? I know what an unreliable plumber is but I don't know what an unreliable buyer is.
Ha ha, the lack of office camaraderie.... Talk about a nasty visual. Can you imagine a bunch of these personality types trying to share an office during these times? I bet these chicks are afraid to leave the room because as soon as they do, the gossip. She's going to get fired. Her husband is leaving her. She's cheating on.... I heard she has a coke problem..... They're having financial problems......
Getting back on topic....there appear to be several classes of "missing listings". Around here, many newly-built homes are unoccupied yet there is no "for sale" sign in the yard. However, these houses have a lockbox. I wonder is there is some sort of "gentlemens' agreement" to limit the number of for sale signs in a geographic area to prevent depressing the market.
Some of the builders around here (Boise) have taken their for sale signs down and put up for rent signs - I guess being a landlord is better than just bleeding.
"know it all engineers" LOL!
No! Really...?
Btw, I'm sure those realtors are WAY past "gossip" and are actively undermining each other on a daily basis.
"Oh... Susie? Uh... she left the firm, can "I" help you?" (In hushed tones)
Builders routinely choose not to include their listings in MLS. That's not uncommon. I don't believe that the agencies keep previously owned homes off of the MLS to reduce the odds of a panic.
What homeowner would agree to have their home excluded from the list (and invisible to prospective buyers) just to take one for the team? That would only happen if a single bank held ten properties on the same street--a possibility in Stockton, yes, but not probable...
And not to totally trash this post, but is it really all that shocking when a salesperson tells you that it's a great time to buy something? Is there any profession where salespeople are supposed to convince people not to buy things? I'm not advocating sunshine-pumping but the shock at this "corrupt" behavior is a bit overdone, IMHO.
PAR, I agree with you to some extent. But Realtors are agents to Sellers and Buyers (sometimes at the same time). And it always the right time to sell and the right time to buy.
Has realtor ever advised a seller to not sell because it is a "buyer's market"? Or vice versa?
@PAR,
Agree that few private sellers would "take one for the team" that way, but given the growing mass of bank owned REOs combined with not-selling new builder inventory, the not advertised % of total "for sale" inventory could be "quite a lot", don't ya think?
Can you imagine a bunch of these personality types trying to share an office during these times? I bet these chicks are afraid to leave the room because as soon as they do, the gossip. She’s going to get fired. Her husband is leaving her. She’s cheating on…. I heard she has a coke problem….. They’re having financial problems…
See: Glengarry, Glenn Ross
HARM, I agree with you. That's why I included the caveat that banks could be putting REOs in a "queue" to avert market-flooding. However, I'm suspect that the tactic is just a little to cleaver to be effective.
A bank would have to hold a good percentage of property, concentrated in a specific area for the tactic to have any impact. And there's a risk that you hang on to available properties while the market continues to tank. My best guess is that they would be fiercely competing for each potential buyer, but who knows...
sriramgopalan, I don't think we'll find anecdotal evidence to settle the debate about middlemen. There are travel agents who sells trips to Mexico during hurricane season. ("It's a great time to buy!") If you pick any salesman in any profession, you'll find some integrity and some slime. Stock brokers, used car salesman, you name it. I just think that this particular horse is incredibly dead and makes for somewhat boring discussion.
And I also believe that, if you look hard enough, you might find a situation where it is a good time to buy. I bought my mother a foreclosed home last year with 20% down, 15-year fixed rate loan. She's been a renter all of her life. Could she wait it out for another five years and go bottom feeding? Probably. But she's getting old. And rent in her area is more than mortgage payment. Will I make money on the "investment". I seriously doubt it. But it was chump-change to me and I sleep better at night with a roof over mom's head... It was a great time to buy.
Yes, that's a great movie. Very well acted. Lot of star power. All movie buffs should watch it.
In the BA proper, I have very rarely come across a house that is not listed in MLS and only listed on Realtor's websites. Apart from obvious FSBO and foreclosures, of course.
But I haven't been looking hard anyways.
"the tactic is just a little to clever to be effective"
There have been cases where even major lenders (CS in OH..?) where their loan portfolio was HIGHLY concentrated, but overall I agree.
Oh btw, I additionally agree that most "clever little tactics" fall into that category. Kind of like "re-creating" letters ex-post-facto.
Wow, did you guys see the PPT actions today?
MLS is now a joke. The best time to buy arrives when every magazine and newspaper has declared that "real estate is dead."
Yeah ... the reversal was swift. But was it just plain old volatility or PPT ?
In less than 6 minutes Nasdaq went up by more than 1%. I really do not want to believe in PPT manipulating the indexes - I am probably the only bubble blogger left to feel this way. But such moves always look suspicious.
The thing is PPT has not been able to stop any bear market till now. Stocks ultimately follow earnings.
The thing is PPT has not been able to stop any bear market till now. Stocks ultimately follow earnings.
Who says PPT wants to stop a bear market? It only creates selling opportunities. :)
StuckInBA,
O.K... for the last time:
There IS... no PPT, MLS Data is ALWAYS accurate and there's no such thing as a "National Real Estate Market"!
DinOR :
OK OK OK. :-) I know being alone in my beliefs is an invitation to mocking. But hey ... why those digs about MLS and RE ? Am I that outcast now ? ;-)
There IS… no PPT, MLS Data is ALWAYS accurate and there’s no such thing as a “National Real Estate Marketâ€!
There is no housing bubble. There are no American tanks in Baghdad!
"There is no housing bubble" LOL!
Can you still find that web page? Pure genius I tell you!
You know, I'm not saying the market *wasn't overvalued going into what FAB's CT HF buddies described as "end of year window dressing" but I am disappointed somewhat. What do we know about CFC we didn't know in Dec?
DinOR Says:
Really Dr. Baen? Really. Commodities.
They mean the Beanie-Baby and Pot futures market.
"Pot futures" LOL! :)
I THOUGHT I said "sober" discussion!
There really isn't, is there? Regardless of qualifications, no matter how you slice it, 51 isn't a good time to be making career changes. Oh and at that age I guess you can rule out stripper too?
PAR Says:
is it really all that shocking when a salesperson tells you that it’s a great time to buy something
Yes, when they are a _buyer's_ agent, it is expected that they advise buyers not to buy because it isn't that great right now. Specially since these scumbags fancy themselves as "professionals".
The fact that we are not shocked by their dishonesty speaks volumes.
Can you still find that web page? Pure genius I tell you!
DinOR, here it is!
Ha ha, that is really funny. Not as great as the 'Mission Accomplished' photo that Harm did for us, but pretty good.
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