patrick.net

Again, Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

Walnut Creek? What are your predictions for that area - my friend caught a knife there a couple of months back, it seems a really nice area, but I get the impression foreclosures are rising?

I think it's a bit too far for my hubby to commute otherwise I would consider relocating there - mind you I hear the summers are hotter. However, maybe if the prices never drop here it maybe our only option if we really have to buy!

FormerAptBroker - there is a name for someone who puts vinyl floors down in a marble floor neighborhood, or puts formica in a granite countertop neighborhood - they are neither a flipper or a rehabber, they are an idiot!

At least if they expect to make market value in that neighborhood.

>> Again, Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

Agreed. Alan Greenspan is the scamster of century. He has committed economic crimes for which no law exists to prosecute. In other words destructive monetary policy can not be prosecuted.

Looks like no PPT today after all - indices are all down. That means it's time for another "emergency" Fed rate cut, then, don'tcha think?

@Claire

Love this East Bay Area. Walnut Creek has really gone upscale. However, you might want to check on the school system comparing it to San Ramon which may have a better school system and which may be closer to you.Walnut Creek has lots of old homes which need constant maintenance. San Ramon also has lots of new homes which will probably come down in price even more than the "used homes" in this area. San Ramon is also trying to get get a town center approved.

If you choose a home in Windemere in San Ramon, just be aware of a higher tax base. Calculate the extra amount you would be paying compared to buying a home in another subdivision.

I love the summers here - warm occasionally but tolerable. Neighborhoods are relatively safe compared to many areas in the Bay Area. This whole area is a very family friendly setting, laid back, and lovely.

My guess is that it will take years for the bottom of the real estate market to occur. In the meantime, I would just enjoy not being a homeowner and save your money.

Peter P Says:
Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

At least, with Hitler and Stalin, even if you did not like what they said, you could clearly understand what they were saying...

Claire Says:
Walnut Creek ... I think it’s a bit too far for my hubby to commute otherwise I would consider relocating there

I recall you were watching the Mtn.View area pretty closely. It seems to be coming down (slowly) - do you get the same impression? I am seeing listings come up in the Cuesta area that seem lower than before.

@Jimbo,

Thanks - I was relocated with my company (IT department), so yes, it's permanent.

SP - yep we are in that area, sales have definitely slowed and I think prices in the less desirable areas have come down a bit - but then there will be a couple that go for absolutely ridiculous prices - and Zillow - I don't know what's up with that site, but all the prices seem to have leaped up.
I was, however, heartened recently when I went on Realtytrac recently and viewed all the foreclosures on a map you can create on thier website, they are starting to creep into this area. Sunnyvale - wow - one of the areas we looked at a couple of years ago - a lot of foreclosures! Makes me glad we didn't buy there!

However, the asking rents in this area seem to have climbed which is a bit disheartening - we will just stay put for now.

My friend moved from Mountain View to Walnut Creek - to be closer to work and they have a nice house and are settled (which I envy). For us though, work is currently 5 miles away - so a move to Walnut Creek would entail a big commute. I am hoping to tough it out here, but I really wish the market would show more signs of cracking!

Interestingly, I find the retired Greenspan more open and straight forward than before. I watched his recent interviews and I could actually understand what the heck he was talking about.

Danville Woman - we will probably wait at least another year - however, I worry that my daughter would benefit from a better school. Moving rentals would mean a significant increase in rent, plus we have a dog, so our other option is for us to wait a bit longer until we can buy somewhere, meanwhile I keep having to make up for school shortcomings!

DinOR,

didn't mean to imply that Citadel was trading based on Washington insider information, although I think it is almost certain that they are and have been keeping a close eye on the goings on in our political capital.

Agents are gaming Zillow, especially in the Bay Area where a lot of agents are internet savvy and used to using Zillow. An agent can manipulate the z-estimates for just a couple of houses and "correct" a couple of recent sales prices resulting in the whole neighborhood skyrocketing.

I've seen houses which sold at $1.3mm that were z-estimated at nearly $3.0mm.

In most fields such behavior would be outright illegal.
In the rest it is still unethical.
But in the lovely world of Real Estate Agency, it's called "educating the buyers".

Randy,

how can agent "correct" the recent sale price? I thought Zillow gets the direct feed from county records.

@Claire
Forgive the unsolicited opinion but I would advise against the far (i.e. past the tunnel) East Bay if you work on the Peninsula. Most places will cost you a 1-1.30h commute each way. No way can you compensate for those 3h lost in lower cost housing. Chances are you'll pay the same amount (we all go for the max we can afford anyway), especially considering higher taxes (as someone else mentioned) and higher commuting costs. I have a (small) sample of friends who tried that move to the East Bay from Peninsula back when prices were crazy and that was the best they could afford. All but one of them have since been forced to change jobs (since they are all stuck in their homes). Fortunately for them that was at least a possibility even if they had to take minor paycuts. Better to rent and wait it out. That way at least if you're stuck you'll be stuck closer to where most jobs are.
Then again I am just a simple renter idiot....what do I know?

Permarenter,

From your Greenspan-does-Vancouver newspaper article quote. First:

>>Remember one aspect of the subprime mortgage is that it financed a very significant increase in homeownership amongst Americans.

And then this gem:

>>And I thought that that was a very important thing in society where property development is a critical issue.

WTF? What kind of a sentence is that? "property development" is a "critical issue"?
Dude Greenspan, you are talking out of your @ss.

Randy H - great so now we can't trust Zillow, I wonder though - if we just take the 2006 or mid 2007 data points on their graph - would this be more of less right or skewed? Of course I still hope that the prices will regress to 2000 levels - but I'm wondering if that is just wishful thinking for this area? If it is, then I can see that we will never buy here.

I rather have Casey Serin as the Fed chief. At least he is entertaining.

The U.S. State Department is not identifying the tipster, but media reports say he is 69-year-old Clarence Prevost, a former airline pilot and flight instructor from the state of Minnesota.

Prevost became suspicious after Moussaoui expressed interest in learning how to fly jumbo jets at his flight school, even though he had no experience flying smaller aircraft.

Prevost sought to alert authorities about Moussaoui and later became a key witness at his trial.

The State Department awarded Prevost the $5 million Thursday, as part of its "Rewards for Justice" program, which seeks tips about terrorists and terrorist activities.

Moussaoui pled guilty to six terror conspiracy charges and said he was supposed to be part of a second wave of al-Qaida attacks.

The Moroccan-born French citizen is serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole.

Calif. farmers want to sell water

FRESNO, Calif. — With water becoming increasingly precious in California, a rising number of farmers figure they can make more money by selling their water than by actually growing something.

Because farmers get their water at subsidized rates, some of them see financial opportunity this year in selling their allotments to Los Angeles and other desperately thirsty cities across Southern California, as well as to other farms.

"It just makes dollars and sense right now," said Bruce Rolen, a third-generation farmer who grows rice, wheat and other crops in Northern California's lush Sacramento Valley.

Instead of sowing in April, Rolen plans to let 100 of his 250 acres of white rice lie fallow and sell his irrigation water on the open market, where it could fetch up to three times the normal price.

Damn ! I hope today's stock market action is a temporary blip and the bounce continues from next week. With good MSFT earnings, I was hoping the indexes to go higher. Did not get any chance to load up on ultra-short. My limit buy order for QID was not filled.

Randy H,

"educating the buyers", heh.

See, you are fighting back. And I think bloggers and alternative media have played a big role in getting the story out. I bet there are tons of journalists that read this blog, and others like it.

Any journalists want to fess up? You can be anonymous, I'm sure Patrick is quite decent enough not to rat you out. :-).

FRESNO, Calif. — With water becoming increasingly precious in California, a rising number of farmers figure they can make more money by selling their water than by actually growing something.

Water is BLUE GOLD. Any investment idea?

@BayAreaIdiot

I too am an idiot renter - and deep down I know you're right about the housing/commute thing - but when you compare prices and what you can get for those prices (plus Walnut Creek is definitely crashing whereas here it's business as usual) - I start to wonder whether I should change my target area.

EBGuy :

You left out the link.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080125/bs_nm/usa_mortgages_bonds_jumbo_dc_1

This is why I still have a lot of hope for this country. There are still some people who understand how free markets work.

If Randy would explain how z is gamed I would greatly appreciate it. I *know* it happens as I've seen estimates which I deem very optimistic - and these are homes I've been inside. One thing they all (seem?) to have in common is that they've been claimed by owner (I think)

Well, you can't mess with the market. :)

BayAreaIdiot and Claire :

The East Bay commute discount is increasing very fast. During the boom, the discount was not worth it. What's nice is that discount will keep growing and still manage to pull down the mighty Fortress BA - at least IMO.

The Investor's Resource for Investing in Water Stocks

http://waterstockblog.com/

@Claire
I totally see your point. And naturally only you can weigh the pros and cons of any decision given your specific circumstances. I would make the following suggestion. If you feel really tempted, rent in an inexpensive hotel somewhere in East WC for a week. Then, commute every day to the Peninsula. Crossing any bridge/tunnel or getting on 880 during rush hour will soon cure you :-) Hope this helps!

Agents are gaming Zillow, especially in the Bay Area where a lot of agents are internet savvy and used to using Zillow.

What, Realtors are dishonest??? I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED to see fraud among Realtors!

However, the asking rents in this area seem to have climbed which is a bit disheartening - we will just stay put for now.

Ok, then. I can finally contribute something to a Bay Area discussion from personal direct experience. I have been looking for rental houses & townhomes (no apartments) in the East Bay, centered mainly around W.C. --an area roughly bordered by Martinez in the north, Clayton on the east, Moraga/Orinda on the west and San Ramon on the south. Here are my observations:

1. There is actually a fair amount of 2-3Bdm rental inventory available for a "reasonable" (by CA standards) price --under $2000/mo in my case. I mainly used Craigslist, Realtor.com & Hotpads.com, and despite having 2 cats (which reduced available inventory by at least half), I found 2-3 dozen potentials, which I whittled down to a short "best" list of ~5 properties. We just put in for our #1 pick and got accepted. Our new LL made a point of complimenting us on our high credit scores and excellent references, which should give you an idea of what a *typical* renter must be like here.

2. The house rental market here seems to be bifurcated (much like the economy ;-) ). Most of the owner/LLs we dealt with directly (vs. agent-shown properties) fell into one of the following two categories:
--Desperate to rent (one guy dropped the asking rent $100 even BEFORE we asked for an application).
--Smug, arrogant, and in no hurry to rent or compromise in any way.

3. The house rental market here is either at par with L.A. County, or even a bit better --as in, you get a little more for same money here, quality-wise. I was astonished to find that most LLs here provide W/D & refrigerators --sometimes new ones-- in the units. That's almost unheard of in SCAL.

Good news to agricultural investor that our farmers are not growing food any more.

Blue gold is kind of difficult to invest in, but you can always invest in DBA or RJA if farmers decide water is too precious to use on irrigation. That will drastically reduce the amount of food grown, or if food is grown, they will charge a lot more.

Why has Zillow all of a sudden become the Gospel Truth about housing prices? Who died and left THEM in charge of "determining" "market value"???

The mistake many people seem to make is to take the "zestimate" as the actual value of the home, like it's an actual appraisal, or better yet, an actual sale price. That just simply is false. Even if you give these guys full benefit of the doubt that their zestimates are based only on recent sales comps, the zestimate is likely to underestimate prices in a surging market and overestimate in a declining market, as the recent comps are a lagging indicator by definition.

That's basic crap even Realtards should be able to understand, high school degree and all.

HARM :

I can relate to your experience. Before we signed our lease a few weeks back, we just browsed through a few rentals. In our experience, the private LL were very reasonable in terms of price. In case of apartment complex the rents are much higher. If the name starts with an A (like Archstone, Avalon) then you have to pay a premium.

If the name starts with an A

As in, "a$$hole"? :-)

StuckInBA,

How did you find your renteals -- which website?

Thanks,
PermaRenter

BayAreaIdiot Says:

> I would make the following suggestion. If you feel really
> tempted, rent in an inexpensive hotel somewhere in East
> WC for a week. Then, commute every day to the Peninsula.

It is about 45 miles from San Mateo to Walnut Creek and at 2:00 am with no traffic the drive takes just under an hour (580 & 24 is the half way point).

It will be a rare to ever make the one way drive in under 2 hours from 7:00 - 9:00 am or 5:00 to 7:00 pm on a work day.

If you make $100K/year that is about $50/hour. 4 hours a day @$50 hour x 5 x 50 weeks = $50K (enought to service almost $700K in debt at 6%).

P.S. The car expense for a 90 mile round trip commute will be at least an extra $1K a month...