patrick.net

BayAreaIdiot Says:

> I would make the following suggestion. If you feel really
> tempted, rent in an inexpensive hotel somewhere in East
> WC for a week. Then, commute every day to the Peninsula.

It is about 45 miles from San Mateo to Walnut Creek and at 2:00 am with no traffic the drive takes just under an hour (580 & 24 is the half way point).

It will be a rare to ever make the one way drive in under 2 hours from 7:00 - 9:00 am or 5:00 to 7:00 pm on a work day.

If you make $100K/year that is about $50/hour. 4 hours a day @$50 hour x 5 x 50 weeks = $50K (enought to service almost $700K in debt at 6%).

P.S. The car expense for a 90 mile round trip commute will be at least an extra $1K a month...

But Walnut Creek has Buchanan Field. San Carlos is only 22 minutes away!!!

http://tinyurl.com/2xuxtm

PermaRenter :

I used Craigslist. What I discovered was these days, the apartment complexes have better deals there and rent.com etc sites just put the official rates.

FAB at 2:36pm gives a more cerebral way to judge the cost/value of the commute. However, I am a stupid monkey. I only "get it" if I "do it". Hence, my method is to try it out and see.

RE: Zillow.

You've hit it on the head. It has to do with "owner claimed" entries. The owner has the ability to modify the base value of their address by entering improvements and adjusting "mistakes" in the data. Normally what really happens is their agent will claim it for them, and do all the "correcting" his or herself.

Z-Estimates are primarily an interpolation algorithm with some kind of a similarity weighting scheme (number of bedrooms, sqft, etc.) It seems that recent sales also command serious weighting in the formula.

By contacting Zillow you can request "corrections" or "clarifications" to the county data. There's a legitimate reason for this: abnormal transfers. A lot of times the county records will show $1mm homes selling for ridiculously low prices when they're transfered around within the family (or for other reasons I don't understand as well as others here). People were complaining that their homes were being dragged down by non-sales sales numbers -- and that those numbers were depressing the entire neighborhood.

But, as would be expected, it took a matter of hours before agents realized they could pounce on Zillow and change their client's Z-Estimates. I've been in a handful of homes now in Mill Valley & surrounds where the agents had pretty, color, glossy printouts of the Z-Estimates & graphs right there on the table next to the cookies. Sure sure. That's not suspicious at all (but I still eat their cookies).

However, there is currently a $3-400,000 price difference for similar properties in Wanut Creek vs Mountain View

>> If you make $100K/year that is about $50/hour. 4 hours a day @$50 hour x 5 x 50 weeks = $50K (enought to service almost $700K in debt at 6%).

This is a priceless piece of calculation. Thanks for the insight! I have never commuted and always rent apartment complex within five miles of work.

@ Claire,
Have you thought about Orinda? Just as nice as WC but cooler in the summer.

Also imagine the physical discomfort of two hour commute. Do these people take any interest in their kid's education?

Have you thought about Orinda? Just as nice as WC but cooler in the summer.

Orinda is quite nice. How about Lafayette?

...and there were unsubstantiated claims made on the Zillow forums that you could request/demand they remove your data (all or part) from your history "for privacy reasons" and they would do it rather than risk any exposure.

There was some legal debating going on about whether a 3rd party could legally disclose public information if it enabled harassment. I followed up to the point where some of the lawyer-types were debating the differences between why it's not ok if the information is free, but it is if the info is paid for in use of other transactions or legitimate purposes (like PropertyShark or title databases).

Remember, you can always make more money, but you can never recapture lost time.

@Claire
well then you still have 3-400K to spare according to FAB! Besides, that differential is bound to narrow isn't it? I remember someone describing housing bubbles exploding outwards (to suburbs) and imploding inwards (towards central areas).

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@ Randy

thanks for confirming my suspicions. I think all those homes where I noticed the optimistic z-estimate were not only claimed, but also "make me sell"! What a joke that is...Maybe Patrick can set up the anti-z with a "make me buy" tag?

what the hell is suspicions?
i beg your pardon...now you know why I mostly lurk...

I really like Lafayette. Cute downtown, houses nestled on narrow, hilly streets, good architecture, all around neat place.

Moraga/Orinda & Lafayette are very nice and also very expensive --to buy or rent. Better have a fat checkbook with you when you go looking.

Claire Says:
we will probably wait at least another year - however, I worry that my daughter would benefit from a better school.

If you have a five mile commute to work, the extra time you get to spend with your daughter will be of much more benefit, than if you moved to a better school district but had to spend 2 hours commuting. Some colleagues commute from Fremont to Mtn.View (880+237) and it takes them roughly an hour each way. Not a fun way to live...

I really like Lafayette. Cute downtown, houses nestled on narrow, hilly streets, good architecture, all around neat place.

Uncle Yu's has some pretty good Chinese food.

Maybe Patrick can set up the anti-z with a “make me buy” tag?

Actually, he *did* try that a few months ago.

Some colleagues commute from Fremont to Mtn.View (880+237) and it takes them roughly an hour each way. Not a fun way to live…

Really? What time are they on the road?

@Peter P,
Thanks, I'll check it out.

Actually, he *did* try that a few months ago.

the hallmark of a BayAreaIdiot is to listen to someone's idea then "come up" with the same idea a few months down the line and have absolutely no clue he's not an original

Thanks, I’ll check it out.

The crabmeat puff is nice. The wonton soup is also decent.

skibum Says:
What, Realtors are dishonest???

No way. They have a Code of Ethics and everything.

Moraga/Orinda & Lafayette are very nice and also very expensive –to buy or rent. Better have a fat checkbook with you when you go looking.

Correct. Which is way I mentioned East WC. You have to go far past the tunnel to see savings in the several hundred K's, and by that time you might as well be in Tracy (if you work on the Peninsula that is)

Since we are discussing commutes, I will (again) put in a plug for ACE (Altamont Commuter Express) and Amtrak's Capitol Corridor. They both connect with Light Rail at Great America and the time spent getting to and from "cheap housing" can be used to do actual work (although the seduction of Amtrak's bar car after a rough day at the office may be too much for some). ACE also has dedicated shuttles that go around to most employment centers in Silicon Valley. Not that I would want to live in Stockton, but I do hear that home prices may be falling (like a rock!)

of course you can alway try Richmond or most of Oakland. Significant savings are possible and you're on the right side of the tunnel - only the bridge is between you and bliss. So go ahead....I dare you!

I see two possible "career" paths for a new arrival to the Bay Area:

(1) You move to the area and buy a house - probably out in Walnut Creek or someplace because of the kids, and the dog, and yadda yadda. So the house come with a 4+ hour a day commute. Your mortgage and taxes, etc to live in your wonderful house which you hardly see is about $5k a month. The kid(s) grow up for a few years not knowing you, which is OK because after those few years they get lots of quality time with you, you lost your job. This isn't so great, you were never able to save money, unemployment is WAY up, and RE's been decreasing in value at a steady 5% a year. Except out in Walnut Creek, where it's been decreasing in value at 7% a year. You collect unemployment, try to make it as "Mr Dad" while your wife gets a job at $8 an hour in a small book store, for 30 hours a week and hopes to land that lucrative gig on weekends at the laundromat, maybe. She's now the sole breadwinner. One car is repo'd and you turn the other one in, buying the neighbor's old van. You'll need it, since after squatting in your house for 3 months, the Sheriff shows up and that's the end of that. Luckily, your wif'e parents in Kalamazoo have a trailer in the back yard you can move into, and both Arby's and and screen-door plant are hiring, and not picky about credit histories, since yours and your wife's are trashed.

(2) You move to warm wonderful Silly-Con valley for that job with Initech. You rent a place in a decent neighborhood, which means you pay a premium, $2500 a month. At least the LL has to fix the roof or that leaky faucet! There's a yard for the kid(s) and dog, and decent schools. You and Wifey get together and decide to keep her Volvo XC70 while you sell your Ford Imperator-Maximus (and take a bit of a hit paying off the amount you're "underwater" on the loan) since Initech gives you a transit pass as part of the pay package and you take Caltrain + a brisk walk to work. A few other Initech'ers are on the train, and you hang out and shoot the bull every morning, in the car 2 up from the bike car. Wifey takes classes at the local college outreach, and the LL doesn't mind her turning the backyard into a vegetable garden, heck, it's rather nice actually! Three years pass by rather pleasantly and uneventfully. Wifey's on a Simple Living kick and has found the PBS film "Affluenza" on YouTube. You manage to save $2500 a month, since you'd figured maybe you'd buy a place at $5k a month, but had decided to hold back.... you'd had slight qualms..... Those slight qualms materialize too, but on the job front - Initech is downsizing and you're soon out of a job. Well, no worry, you've got savings in the bank, and if things still look bleak on the job front when the lease is up in 7 months you'll look for a cheaper rental, seems there are always a few with "shaggy" years to be had for under $2k a month. Wifey decides she'd like to go back to work part-time anyway, and you use your unemployment-vacation to do a bit of relaxing and look into job-retraining programs. A degree in bullshit is better than no degree at all, and you find there are a lot of "add ons" you can take in 6 months or so and with the gov't's blessings (they'll keep you on unemployment pay and even extend it while in a training program) which will make you very hire-able and at as least as good pay as Initech gave. Yes, you are a renter, and life is good!

Ugh - "shaggy" yards I mean.

Claire Says:
However, there is currently a $3-400,000 price difference for similar properties in Wanut Creek vs Mountain View

Keep in mind that you are comparing a bubble-inflated MV price (it has only slid a little yet) with the post-bubble WC price. This gap is likely to narrow as WC plateaus out and MV continues to slide.

Peter P Says:
Really? What time are they on the road?

Typically at work around 9.30 am, back around 6.30pm. Anytime they can, they delay their schedule just to catch a break...

SP - I sure hope the Mountain View prices do slide - I just wish it would happen quickly!

Typically at work around 9.30 am, back around 6.30pm. Anytime they can, they delay their schedule just to catch a break…

Perhaps they should shift their schedule at least 1 hour. That will save them some time.

Did anyone comment on the housing report yet?

Existing home sales got pwned, although the NAR Chief Monkeynomist is spinning this out as "declining inventories going into 2008". No mention of the fact that inventory was higher than last year-end, and also higher than their earlier estimate.

And oh, by the way, NAR also thinks you will be happy to know that 2007 was the "fifth highest sales" record. So I guess the "sixth highest" is in the bag for 2008...

Maybe I sound stupid, why not commute to Santa Cruz?

Isn't Santa Cruz at least along the coast and a resort town? Why does everybody want to go east?

Claire Says:
SP - I sure hope the Mountain View prices do slide - I just wish it would happen quickly!

It may sound a little glib, but seriously, stop looking at it and enjoy everything else. I don't think this will be quick, so it is best to do whatever it takes to get time on your side.

Ok, I know my town has a bad rep. and deservedly so, but there are some really great, safe areas here. Expensive too, unfortunately. If shooting down the east shore is at all a possibility, don't discount El Cerrito, Albany, Berkeley and even some parts of Richmond. Rule of thumb, altitude = safety.

altitude = safety

Let's go to Colorado Springs! It is higher than the mile-high city. Join the mile-high club!

Scrap that, how about Dillon at 9800 ft?

At higher altitudes, criminals lack oxygen to do harm. :)