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Protecting Your Savings


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2008 Jan 27, 5:53am   46,924 views  390 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

safe

With the government now mounting a full-scale assault against savers by cutting interest rates, attempting to keep housing prices unreasonably high, and even handing out raw cash (do I hear helicopters?) what can responsible people do to protect what they've earned?

Some options and problems with those options:

  • CD's: fully taxable, low rates (under 4% now), some risk FDIC won't cover bank failures
  • Treasury Bills: no state tax, less risk, but even lower rates (2.5%)
  • Gold: pays no interest, price very hard to predict. Lost value for 20 years after last peak.
  • Stock: falling prices in falling economy as earnings decline
  • Housing: massively overvalued, likely to keep falling for years
  • Commercial property: also seems to be on downside of a bubble
  • Commodities: falling prices as economy slows

One bright point: if you're saving to buy a house, your cash gets more valuable as house prices fall. And you get interest on top of that.

Patrick

#housing

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175   Richmond   2008 Jan 29, 2:46am  

HelloKitty,

I really like the opening bid price vs. peak price on some of those properties. WOW!

Could 2008 be 1990 on steroids?

176   Randy H   2008 Jan 29, 2:55am  

@ Patrick et. al.

Ferry bldg is a good idea. I'll see if I can make it. High probability. Larkspur Ferry lands right there.

177   Malcolm   2008 Jan 29, 2:55am  

DinOR, Carlsbad is nearer to San Diego. It is just south of Oceanside.

178   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 3:09am  

northernvirginarenter,

Will do. I've been on hold and leaving a lot of voice mail msgs. but I WILL get to the bottom of that. If I let it slide (rattle my cage!) Hey you aren't the same "NOVA" from Ben's Blog back in the day are you? They seemed to have a similar profile/background.

179   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 3:11am  

Oh and don't be silly, (FB's will figure out how to "chop" the Korean and Detroit Iron to Mexico one part-at-a-time!)

180   Patrick   2008 Jan 29, 3:30am  

OK, Feb 8th 5pm at the Ferry Building wine bar it is! Especially glad Randy H doesn't mind the change of venue. So far him, me, justme, and HARM. Weird to put it that way. HARM, no problem arriving at 6pm. I'll try to hold down a chair for you.

ex-sunnyvale-renter, sorry, the patrick.net budget won't yet cover the charter flight, or pretty much anything else.

181   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 3:39am  

I am sorry but I will not be able to make the blog party next week. :(

I have met all but justme (weird to put it this way too). Perhaps we have have another chance?

182   Randy H   2008 Jan 29, 3:52am  

I'm thinking, given the real party is just starting, we should set up some kind of standing bi-monthly or monthly drinking spot. The ferry bldg is good because we'll be surrounded by lots of bubble-buyers homedebtor types, who we can loudly annoy with our boisterous Schadenfreude.

183   HARM   2008 Jan 29, 4:01am  

@Bap33,

$565k to $130k? Now *that's* what I call an insulting Lowball offer! Best of luck to you!

184   Paul189   2008 Jan 29, 4:04am  

I bought Canadian 1 year t-notes at a yield of 4.30% and you get interest in Loonies instead of crappy USD.

185   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 29, 4:09am  

HelloKitty and DinOR :

This is definitely WOW. And I thought the blogs are a step ahead of others. I mean we just started discussing this jingle mail a few weeks back. These guys already have a running business. Once again, WOW.

Ain't this a great country or what ? Of all the things that have been happening in the housing bubble, this definitely is one of THE most positive things. The quicker we all write off our bad debts, the better for all of us.

186   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 4:22am  

StuckInBA,

WOW is right, and the web-site design says "opportunist" to the "t". Right down to the stock photos of not just (relieved) but ecstatically, deliriously happy former FB's packin' they shit up to bag ass yo!

Within a week they'll have a companion site called "Stickin'totheman.com". Lord, and what are they offering for a grand? To stop all the harrassing phone calls while you live "rent free"? (Heard of caller I.D?) Oh and what would their considered opinion be on renting a place now dat' yo credit be sh!t?

187   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 4:29am  

Administrator - Yeah, I know ..... wish I could make it.... I actually like the BA, but not as a member of the slave class. If I can get my street-performer skills together though I'm really of a mind to move back up there. Yes, I am serious about this, I got so sick of being the hardworking small business owner, working my ass off to make everyone ELSE rich, ending up more in debt every month, that I started hanging out with street musicians and balloon-twister types and realized, Hey, these guys have like NO overhead. They're all ex-techies! They're all far happier than they were in the belly of the dying whale that is tech. All they have to do is come up with $500 or so a month rent somewhere, and their time is their own! They probably make that in a weekend! Their only "boss" is the customer and the customer is pretty easy to make happy, really. I drew some Indian guy's kid and I'm willing to get that drawing is framed and on their wall right next to the picture of Ganesh - and will be for years. The freaky-artist-guy in Palo Alto whom I drew probably saved my drawing, and I even got one of his crappy drawings in return, which I donated to the city via one of its trash cans lol. Oh, the Indian guy gave me $5 for what was really just a few minutes' work, and frankly it was fun, even drawing his little purple Yahoo! hat.

I have the drawing skills in the bag. What was a curse will be a lifesaving asset, it seems. But I'm also working on learning an instrument, working on trumpet/cornet but if I really am not getting anywhere in a year, I'm going to play the sax. Good street instrument, that.

So, gimme a year or so, I'll like as not be able to join you guys for a martoonie yet.

188   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 4:34am  

www.youwalkaway.com man what a site! They offer a "kit" how can you go wrong?

That site deserves some serious spammage. I mean, 60 Minutes, the favorite show of the blue-hair crowd, has given its blessing to "the long walk", so yeah...

Jingle mail, jingle mail.... jingle all the way!

189   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 4:48am  

They'll probably be hugely successful. This is where the FB Dream lives on! Live without making (real) payments. No deficiency against you and they can help you get that nasty foreclosure off your credit report and back in a home in a jiffy!

Hugely successful.

That is until the Feds shut them down.

190   HeadSet   2008 Jan 29, 4:52am  

That is until the Feds shut them down.

Then the "torch" business makes rapid growth?

191   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 5:01am  

Jingle mail, jingle mail…. jingle all the way!

LOL :lol:

192   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 5:02am  

@dinOR

No, was never a poster at Bens. Longtime lurker here and other bubble places, might have posted here a couple times years ago under a different and long forgotten screenname.

193   Richmond   2008 Jan 29, 5:05am  

Youwalkaway.com

I like how the people are grinning ear to ear, like they are on cloud 9. They look like they are moving into their brand new home, not pooping on their lender. That's just too good.

194   Patrick   2008 Jan 29, 5:19am  

@Paul:

Where and how did you buy your Canadian T-notes?

Schwab does not seem to offer that option to me...

195   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 5:21am  

yeah I say it's crossing a line to see how long you can live in your place for free. I say, move on out to a rental and let the place start decaying right away! Don't put that 18-inch hole in the roof as advocated in "The World Without Us", just leave some windows open just a crack, make sure there's a cat door so install one if you don't have one already, maybe put in that pond in the backyard if you haven't already, they're cheap to install if you do it yourself and it's nice to the animals like frogs. ..... jug-o-rum! jug-o-rum!

196   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 29, 5:22am  

I like how the people are grinning ear to ear, like they are on cloud 9. They look like they are moving into their brand new home, not pooping on their lender. That’s just too good.

The photos are simply priceless. It would be very ironic if these photos were simply copied from some website belonging to a builder. All smiles while buying and now all smiles while foreclosing.

197   justme   2008 Jan 29, 5:26am  

Peter P,

I haven't met anyone at all! Maybe you and I get a chance another time, I think we live not to far from each other ;).

By the way, how does this work? Do we wear secretive alias name tags? How do find I think I've seen a picture of Patrick somewhere.....oh yeah, on the beach in the Netherlands. Maybe that will do the trick.

198   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 5:26am  

"They look like they are moving into their brand new home" LOL!

That's what struck odd me too? This must be the financial equivelant to Valtrex (TM)?

"There's no known cure for your condition but Stifftrex (TM) can make life more manageable when outbreaks do occur and clinical studies show that Stifftrex (TM) users have fewer outbreaks. Remember, even when using Stifftrex (TM) it is still possible to pass it to your "partner".

199   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 5:27am  

I dont see how the feds can shut em down. George Bush wants you to walk away!

Thats why he signed the 'walk away scott free' aka 'dont tase me bro' law recently. Forgiven debt is not taxable. Seriously why didnt I think of this idea? Its sooo simple. Also I likke the foreclosure bus tours very good to scare the sense into home sellers. At some point most people will spot a foreclosure bus tour.... very good for the 'waiting for dream price' crowd.

Truly this is shaping up to be the largest bust evar. Even SDCIA.com has gone bearish on RE. Its a pretty good site.

200   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 5:30am  

I haven’t met anyone at all! Maybe you and I get a chance another time, I think we live not to far from each other ;).

Sure! I live in Sunnyvale.

Do we wear secretive alias name tags?

Like attracts like. You will automagically find the others.

201   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 29, 5:34am  

Oh man. That site for some odd reason reminded me of William Hung.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Hung

Maybe because everything about them (the "business" and the "singer") is so wrong and still right at the same time.

202   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 5:42am  

Hello Kitty,

Again I'm trying to keep this in the "one-day-at-a-time" perspective. When that was originally being debated we were still deep in denial thinking things were "contained" and that this would only apply to a limited number of people. Once it becomes more prevalent I think fewer will "qualify".

WalkAway makes some pretty lofty claims in their FAQ's but for now they can hide behind "if you qualify" for their School for Scoundrels.

203   Malcolm   2008 Jan 29, 5:44am  

ex-sunnyvale-renter Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
"www.youwalkaway.com man what a site! They offer a “kit” how can you go wrong?
That site deserves some "

I'm going to apply. I think that would be the perfect company for me. It is just down the street from me. I'd love to have a job, any job relating to the real estate crash. That would be like getting paid to post here!

204   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 5:46am  

If you click the 'foreclosure news' link on uwalk site it quotes the Merrill artilce about 'housing prices to frefall in 2008'. AWSOME.

Basically they are trying to destroy all home (so you decide to walk and buy their kit). I love them guys. Yes Im sure they are ex mortgage brokers. I can imagine how nice it would for them to call up the old clients to sell them the UWalkAway kit..."Hey dont worry about that reset and hard prepay I stuck you with....buy my WALK AWAY kit" its beautiful. sweet deal indeed.

It reminds me of the tv movie with David Schwimmer called "breasst men" he gets rich doing silicon implants....then gets rich again takin em out.

205   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 5:48am  

Basically they are trying to destroy all home (so you decide to walk and buy their kit). I love them guys.

They deserve a Peter P Misanthropy Award.

206   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Jan 29, 5:48am  

I've a good friend who is considering doing the multiple walkaway, let's call it the gumpwalk. Several rental houses in Ohio, another in DC, and a lovely Florida condo. He has two other properties free and clear to retire into, with the help of some liberated capital from cashout financings. So, that's 5 used houses about to begin the foreclosure process from one single individual. Of course he did not heed my warnings in 2004 2005 of a bubble and the risks he was taking, and counsel to sell at that time, his response the usual "they are not making anymore real estate" and "prices never go down". It was never his intention to game the system in any way, and I know him to be of good character.

In the end, clearly his best move is to walk at this point. Non-recourse all, with the exception of a single smallish HELOC. In the end, he comes out of it totally fine, a credit blemish which really does not matter to his quality of life or significantly limit his options in any way. He is leaning towards 5 sets of keys going back, it is clearly his best option. He has retained counsel, who concurs. Four of the Five are currently upside down, and all five are negative cash-flow. And of incidental interest, in aggregate the five appraisals at most recent financings come in at almost exactly double what in his opinion current fair market value would bring. Four have good renters in them, the Fla condo is empty.

If this is a typical profile of the small amateur real estate investor who was active through the past 5 years, what are we in for in the near future? We truly have not seen anything yet. How many more late stage Casey's are out there, those whose high net worth has allowed them to continue the appearance of solvency and who now understand where the market is heading?

The credit blemish is in no way a significant enough downside to keep sheeple paying the mortgages, a foreclosure on your record and "ruined" credit is truly no big deal.

It's all going to be quite a show.

207   anonymous   2008 Jan 29, 5:58am  

OMG PeeterPee you live in Slummyvale? Where, can I ask? I mean, general areas....... do'nt need to give your address out on the series of.... TUBES!

208   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 6:01am  

94086 ZIP code. Between 101 and El Camino.

To be fair, Sunnyvale is not an unsafe city.

209   DinOR   2008 Jan 29, 6:09am  

"that's 5 used houses about to begin the foreclosure process from one single individual"

(The Multiplier Effect, in reverse)

I didn't notice the link to the David Rosenberg report from Merrill... (but that's the one "I" would've picked) :)

Now that I think of it, these guys may have some connection to the mortgage industry but to be actual MB's would be too close for my comfort. Especially if they found any client lists or data from their previous employers/businesses.

210   hugel   2008 Jan 29, 6:27am  


northernvirginiarenter Says:
In the end, he comes out of it totally fine, a credit blemish which really does not matter to his quality of life or significantly limit his options in any way.

I feel depressed knowing how all these specuvestors and FBs can just walk away like that. How come they don't get punished for their financial mistakes? :(
I don't think my TDAmeritrade is gonna be remotely as generous on the margins if I lost on trades.

211   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 6:28am  

How come they don’t get punished for their financial mistakes?

LOL :lol:

This is America.

212   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 29, 6:36am  

There is one situation where walking away may not be best option.

Gubbermint employee's with secret clearance cannot have bad credit or they lose the clearance (and the job). Also they cant use drugs, be alcoholics, openly cheat on wife. Supposedly all this makes them high risk for treason (selling nucliear secrets for cash type of treason!)

Apparently in the last downturn in CA lots of unhappy upside down military DOD types paid on the upside down mortage the whole 12 years. But thier retirement kicks ass!

213   DennisN   2008 Jan 29, 6:45am  

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI). I know it will prevent you from BECOMING a lawyer in CA even if you pass the bar exam.

214   Peter P   2008 Jan 29, 6:47am  

A BK may also get you disbarred if you are a lawyer (same with a DUI).

Foreclosure is not the same as BK though.

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