patrick.net

Careful not to give too much credit to general population to parse through the sophisticated misinformation out there. I'd say 95% of the US population doesn’t really see through at all. And the almost entire remaining 5% get to the truth only part of the time. I struggle through it regularly myself. Chomsky has a good filter.

Foreign nationals with little formal education have the benefit of not being subject to years of school systems that teach conformity and American myths, not how to think and hard truths. Nor are they subject to our propaganda machine since they were old enough to watch a TV. They are able to see through to the truth without having to let go of the years of intellectual baggage packed from the years of propaganda absorption.

This said, its been my experience that most third world sheeple seem to have a more sophisticated critical thinking skills than the average product of our domestic school system. My guess is this comes from cultures where global politics are often discussed and debated at length in social environments and where kids are free to think for themselves and solve problems themselves daily. Oversimplification here, of course.

Classic!

Refco went public in August 2005. It filed for bankruptcy just weeks later after disclosing that a $430 million debt owed to the company by a firm controlled by Bennett had been concealed.

OO Says:

> I am baffled by these “Kansas mechanics” not because
> of their lack of education, but because of their lack of
> independent thinking compared to their peers in the world.

As a car guy who has driven through over 40 states and over 50 countries I’ve talked to a lot of mechanics. While I’m sure that there are a few mechanics in the world that are true independent thinkers with a complete understanding of politics throughout the world most are dumber than a typical US redneck mechanic that went to public schools…

> I traveled internationally often and talk to people from
> all walks of life. People without college degrees in UK,
> or Australia, or China, Japan etc. can see through Bush.

The media reports that the guy has a approval rating of under 30% in the US and I have never met even a SINGLE person that really likes the guy her in the US (even at GOP Lead 21 and Lincoln Club events).

> Bush was widely seen as the worst President ever back
> in 2004, by people from all kinds of background outside
> of this country. We went from a country being revered
> and loved to a country despised and hated.

Bush did not make the world hate us (there were people planning to blow up the World Trade Center way before Bush was elected).

> What I have concluded is, a significant portion of Americans
> (well, those hardcore 30% who still give a thumb up to Bush’s
> approval rating) who are just plain idiots. They lack the basic
> understanding of good and bad, and can only follow whatever
> their church told them to do. Their cognitive ability is simply
> on another different level.

I’m sure that there are a few people in the US that think GW Bush is the greatest president of all time, but I’m pretty sure that we have more people in the country with IQs under 60. In many parts of the country people grow up in families where you “don’t speak ill of your family, religion, school or political party to others”. Once you get to know these people they may talk about the brother with the drug problem, the priest that chases alter boys, the football players that can’t read or a president that made some bad moves”…

Los of college shooting now a days -- looks like generation Y is getting angry.

oops, H3 went more negative from -8B to -18B

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

FYI, rumors on the Internets (see socketsite.com) claim that freezing HELOCs are due to reserve requirements, which would make sense given the H3 situation. Can anyone here comment on reserves required for keeping a full HELOC line open.

PermaRenter - Americans are all levels are going to have a hard time adjusting to lowering living standards. It's sort of the American religion that things get better and better. The last generation where things got worse was during the Depression, and that only lasted about 10 years. We're looking at something like the end of the Civil War, with us all living in the South. Things were down and stayed down for what, 30 years? 1870-1900 at least but it stayed down longer than that. Sharecropping was still being done, yes by whites and blacks alike, up into the 1950s anyway.

The US is an uber-Calvinist, materialist country. It strikes are the very basic beliefs of almost all of us that no matter how hard we work, things are going downhill. Older cultures, those of Asia, India, and even Europe, are accustomed to hard times. Over in Europe they had things like the "100 years' war" for instance. In the US it's been up and up (for those of european descent) since the place was discovered by Europeans, with only a couple of hiccups.

We can expect a lot of seriously ticked-off people of all ages. Older folks go nutzo with guns too.

I'm certain this college guy was nutzo on his own though, not about the economy. Those really ticked off about the economy write books, essays, and blogs, they don't go out shooting.

Los of college shooting now a days — looks like generation Y is getting angry.

Doubtful. These shootings were done by broken brains.

People who are wondering where the next shoe will drop should look at student loans. The money is drying up fast, and it is student loan money that enabled outrageous tuition inflation for the last twenty years.
...
These schools prop up local economies the way overseas military bases do. Layoffs and halted construction projects will put the hurt on everyone.

QuietRenter,

Good point on that. But also, don't forget that it's universities and other "non-profit" institutions that provide much of the capital for hedge funds and VCs to do their thing. I know tuition itself is only a small part of the money used by colleges for investing, but it's important nonetheless. One might therefore expect to see effects on hedgie cash and VC cash flow, if this turns out to be "the other shoe."

As an aside, it seems as there are enough "other shoes" to drop in this whole credit mess to fill Imelda Marcos' closet!

How about a little municipal government tax revenue crisis to add a little accelerant to the RE fire. (I post here as this is going to be relevant nearly everywhere and will be of crisis proportions in a +20% decline environment)

My local paper Headline today; "The Party's Over". To a tax base that is already near revolt, a whopping 13.6% county property tax increase for 2008, which represents an average of another $640 annual to the average homeowners tax bill. Avg current assessed value $447,605. That's an average annual bill of $5,450. And it would seem that they tried to keep this real increase as low as possible, with plans to float almost $1.5B in new debt, even though their current debt load and service is critical and soon to eclipse the schools budget line item as largest expense.

I feel like I'm living in an existential play. I just want to say, "Ummm, do you guys have any idea what is happening right now in the credit markets and the reality of our national economic outlook?" Its a tragic ignoring of reality until it cannot be ignored any more, just continuing to spend, "nothing to see here folks, move along".

Local government is not good at downsizing, simply not constructed to function properly in a declining environment. Quote from county supervisor, "people have been taking tax increases for years, and can't take much more", and "there is real concern out there, there is shock at this tax rate".

So property values here are down 10% minimum, and I'd say have fallen off the cliff now with in a "complete liquidity destruction environment", a near frozen market.

Lots of unhappy sheeple around here.

but in a great many countries there is a free and diverse press

Justme,

In the US you can read National Review, Mother Jones, High Times, New Republic, Washington Post, Washington Times, watch CNN or FOX, or even get it straight from CSPAN. These media present vastly different viewpoints, and I'm sure you can think of others, such as Rush, Air America, and Alan Combs. Editorials in most newspapers over the years printed columns from people as diverse as Molly Ivans and Walter Williams. For those who blog, you can reinforce any political belief, from USSR worship to anarchy.

So property values here are down 10% minimum

Any chance that assessments are getting reduced? Doesn't seem to be happening in my part of VA.

I predict, the Federal Reserve will soon stop publishing H3 data due to "budgetary constraints".

HeadSet,

Yes, you *can* find alternative news sources, but that does not mean that any average Joe will read or watch it,. The alternatives are for the people that already know something is amiss with the MSM, and not for the average Joe.

CNN versus Fox? Made absolutely no difference during the runup to the war. CNN didn't dare utter a controversial word, and they still are wimpy as hell. CSPAN featured a bunch of frightened Democrats that had been whipped into submission by the unrelenting MSM propaganda about Patriotism and anti-american-weak-on-security-democrats -will-not-become-re-elected scare tactics.

That's how we ended up with this bloody war. And it is the same way we ended up with banking deregulation, by corrupt Republicans and corrupt Democrats that were afraid of being labeled as "anti-business" by the MSM.

I'd say a good spread of news sources for the US would be the MSM, never neglect them, then read The Progressive, Mother Jones, Pat Buchanan's blog, Grist, Counterpunch, see what the unmediated people are saying on Craig's List forums, Al-Jazeera english site, and also read the other major papers of the Anglosphere like those in England, Australia, Hong Kong, etc. I think that's a pretty wide spectrum and hopefully I've picked out a good one.

leave things like Alex Jones, Lew Rockwell, etc that have a definate axe to grind as opposed to a position, alone. You'll get the same news a few days sooner and better covered in the "position" sites than you will on the "axe" ones anyway.

The problem starts when heavy censorship of the internet in the US starts. There are just not that many pinch points to close off.

oo,

All I know right now is that that H3 number is scary.

@Headset

Assessments dropped last year in Loudoun County Va, and will again. Even with the reductions, a record number of homeowners entered a dispute process. The game is to keep top line assessed value slightly below true market value so that the average homeowners can enjoy that pleasant psychological boost they get from knowing they are getting over on the taxman, even if just a little. Of course, the game is lower the assessment while increasing the tax rate to achieve revenue growth objectives.

The "official" assessment decline number for 2007 was neg 8%.

With a limited finger on the local pulse, the population has been very unhappy with the large increases of years past, but put up with it due to perception of rising home wealth. In our new environment, I think we might see a tax revolt of sorts here. And I'm not kidding. Serious collection problems ahead. The county attorney responsible for arrears collection is going to be spending some time on the courthouse steps, for sure.

the game is lower the assessment while increasing the tax rate to achieve revenue growth objectives.

They did the opposite down here. Newport News, Hampton, York, and Williamsburg all lowered their rates, but raised assessments for a net increase in tax amount.

"In the US you can read National Review, Mother Jones, High Times, New Republic, Washington Post, Washington Times, watch CNN or FOX, or even get it straight from CSPAN. These media present vastly different viewpoints, and I’m sure you can think of others, such as Rush, Air America, and Alan Combs."

In the UK you can actually read newspapers that report the news, unlike the papers from your list.

For example, the Guardian this morning revealed British High Court docs that showed that Prince Bandar, our good buddy from Saudi Arabia threatened Tony Blair with more terrorist attacks if his corrupt weapons deals were investigated.

Blair caved, according to the paper.

Think you're ever going to see that in our corrupt, gutless press?

In my experience (which is somewhat limited), it's not so much that US folks are more ignorant about the world in general. Rather, people in other countries know more about the US than US people know about their individual countries.

For instance, I have met a lot of US people (even those actually over here in 2000 for the Olympics) who think that Sydney is the capital of Australia. You would have to search very, very hard to find a mentally competent Australian who didn't know that the capital of the US is Washington DC.

But a lot of that has to do with the fact that the US is important, in a way that Australia is not and never will be. Our MSM here follows the US Presidential Race quite closely, because the result has global ramifications which will impact Australia. I would suggest the US MSM likely did not pay very much attention to the recent Australian elections, because (except for a possible policy change regarding our forces in Iraq) the result would not have any implications for the US.

Shoot, everyone here in America knows the Australian capital is Cranberry. ;)

Heck there are Americans who think LA is the capital of California and NYC is the capital of New York state.

What little faith I had about Congress or government in general evaporated by watching a little bit of the Roger Clemens hearing. The guy is guilty as hell, but all the Repulican congressmen elected to just kisses his ass.

Part of the problem with being a great power is that you are expected to "do something" about situations throughout the world. You will be damned for action and also damned for inaction. And yet even a great power is limited in its capabilities and needs to pick up local allies. When we were fighting Nazi Germany, we didn't have much choice but to side with the USSR as an ally. Later struggling with communism we got stuck with authoritarian allies like Marcos in the PI and Shah Reza Palavi in Iran.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Australia has the population of New York state and Canada has the population of California. Even a country as old and important to US history as Scotland only has 5 million people, sharing population size (and the weather) with Oregon and Washington state. The US didn't start out to be a great empire: it became one as an unintended consequence of our federal system.

Yeah, what monkframe said ...

cb,

The reason that steroid use suddenly experienced a bipartisan bifurcation is that Roger Clemens is a staunch republican that is tight with Poppy (George Herbert Walker) Bush. Don't tell anyone, the MSM has not reported that portion yet :-)

ozajh,

There is some truth to that, but what about the observation that all the citizens of the small countries also seem to know a lot more about all the other small countries?

justme Says:
all the citizens of the small countries also seem to know a lot more about all the other small countries

Perhaps. It goes beyond mere knowledge or awareness - people in other countries (every country I have been to) are much more interested in the what's going on outside their borders. It is only in here that the majority of the population does not seem to really care much. And what little they know about other countries is driven by stereotypes and sound-bites.

It is not something as simple as being way out there in North America and therefore not having to care - because Canadians don't share our apathy. And I also don't buy the idea that we are too prosperous to bother. It seems like there is a confluence of political and commercial forces that encourages Americans to pay more attention to Britney's lunatic capers instead of trying to figure out what is really going on.

Even the British public - who suffer an advanced form of xenophobia that is encouraged by their elite - aren't this clueless.

SP,

Yep, I agree. It's both political and commercial forces.

An example on the commercial side: The profits are bigger when we have our own one-of-a-kind sports leagues that are different than and insulated from competition with the rest of the world. This in turn discourages international interest in sports, except every 4 years for the olympics (and maybe world cup football). Sports is a universal language that promotes international understanding and interest.

Chris Thornberg quoted in the San Francisco Chronic-le
http://tinyurl.com/387q5a

"We're going through the painful transition toward pricing that is realistic and we're nowhere near that (yet)," said Christopher Thornberg. "Even though your local real estate agent will tell you, it's OK in this neighborhood or it's a wonderful time to buy because interest rates are low, all that's wrong. If you're buying into this market, you're overpaying."

Gangsta ass niggaz don't buy cribs
Cuz gangsta ass niggaz don't buy to flip.
Everything is cool in the mind of gangsta,
Cuz gangsta-ass niggaz think deep.

And all I gotta say to you
Wannabe, gonnabe, cocksuckin', pussy-eatin' prankstas
Cuz when the bubble dies down what the fuck you gonna do
Damn it feels good to be a gangsta...

SP over in Europe going to another country is like going to another state here. Over in England they all get a month off vacation, called the "hols" for holidays, and they go over to Europe and get drunk and raise hell for a month.

The only time I was a month out of the US was courtesy of the US Army and all I got to know was the Korean woods.

I think you'll find the avg. American knows quite a bit about the states adjacent to theirs, that's the equivalent of knowing at least most of Europe, or more than that if you're talking about the Western states.

I'll Buy Your House If You Buy Mine
by Jennifer Levitz
Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Eager to move closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee, retirees Allen and Wilma Sawtelle put their home in the Southwestern Nevada town of Pahrump up for sale in August. They got nowhere. "The market is just dead," says Mr. Sawtelle. At their open house, he says, "I think one guy came, and he'd been drinking."

Poking around the Internet for home-selling tips, Mr. Sawtelle, a 71-year-old former investigator for a law firm, discovered that anxious sellers like him are trying a new tactic: connecting with other sellers who might agree to "swap" -- or buy one another's property. The Sawtelles found a couple who were looking to move to Nevada, and whose house for sale was within driving distance of their grandchildren.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104429/I'll-Buy-Your-House-If-You-Buy-Mine;_ylt=AmBra1qH6R66w89ensBkcG1O7sMF

For example, the Guardian this morning revealed British High Court docs that showed that Prince Bandar, our good buddy from Saudi Arabia threatened Tony Blair with more terrorist attacks if his corrupt weapons deals were investigated.

Think you’re ever going to see that in our corrupt, gutless press?

Yes, here:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11069268

and here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/07/AR2007060701301.html

Do you really think that if W did a nasty, it would be hushed by US press, and not be exposed like Iran-Contra or Watergate?

Please unmoderate my 2:00 pm post

For example, the Guardian this morning revealed British High Court docs that showed that Prince Bandar, our good buddy from Saudi Arabia threatened Tony Blair with more terrorist attacks if his corrupt weapons deals were investigated.

Think you’re ever going to see that in our corrupt, gutless press?

Yes, here:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11069268

Other example in next post, two links tend to get moderated

and here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/07/AR2007060701301.html

Do you really think that if W did a nasty, it would be hushed by US press, and not be exposed like Iran-Contra or Watergate?

HeadSet,

Bush managed to hush the lie of the Iraq war for about 4 years before the MSM would tell the truth. It does not count what is on blogs and marginalized media. Joe Sixpack does not read them, and if he happened upon it he would be told that they are all a bunch of kooks.

As long as there is a delay in the truth coming out, tyranny will win.

The Iraq war public information campaign is complex, with numerous audiences beyond domestic. The "story" must sing with the average Iraqi citizen, throughout the Middle Eastern populations, with our European "allies" and their populations.

Do you publically come out and say its about securing long term oil supplies and profits for big oil; and profits and medals for our military and the complex? If our leaders were to come out and say these things in speeches we might see the whole Middle East blow up in our face, more so than it already is anyway.

Its interesting that much public opinion in the Arab world is based upon an understanding of US policy far beyond what our domestic population enjoys. Our MSM stuff triggers the "bullsh*t" meter over there. Not much rhetoric coming out of our exec branch relative to spread of "democracy" lately, but remember when I'd guess 99% of US population bought into that story hook, line, and sinker?

Sometimes the official cover story is necessary to achieve certain goals. Not trying to defend the ethics of the thing, or the importance of transparency and truth coming out of our public entities.

@Headset

That's interesting on the different approach down there on tax rate equation, this is completely new to me. Do you think that this was a political driven situation, where the elected's base of support came together based on the oldie but goodie, "cut taxes" mantra?

Sure we'll cut the tax rate, but unbeknowst to you voters we are going to base your future assessments based the data coming out of the national association of realtors. Gotcha.

NVR - US domestic media, the MSM here, is run by the You-Know-Hews

@NVR

Do you think that this was a political driven situation, where the elected’s base of support came together based on the oldie but goodie, “cut taxes” mantra?

No. Virginia law requires that localities use market value when assessing properties for tax purposes. However, the localities are allowed to lower rates. So when assessments and thus property taxes doubled, the local govs lowered the rates to give tax relief. Note though, that the rates were not reduced by half, but more like 10%-15%. My belief is that the rise in property values and assessments created a windfall for the local govs. I also believe the local govs will not see the eventual lower assessments as a loss of a temporary windfall, but as a loss of deserved revenue. I think they will drag thier feet on lowering assessments, but will not have a choice eventually. I was wondering how assessments were holding up in your area. I have notice that asking house prices in Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, and parts of Fairfax have fallen noticeably.

Remember, Virginia is a "Commonwealth," so the localities only have powers specifically granted to them by Richmond, revokable at will. Richmond is currently using that fact to end the "proffers" that some counties use and force them to use "impacts". This means that the localities will have to pick up more of the tab for schools, sewer, and other services caused by new housing developments.