patrick.net

I think the reality is that if Obama were to be elected, Iraq would get worse. Much worse. But I just love the fact that we're already dismissing HC!

If we're basing our judgements on McCain's age the truth is that the man should have died several times over. Hollywood portrays ejecting out of a jet aircraft as some sort of "thrill ride". I'm here to tell you as a first hand witness (it's a 50-50 thing). Even just landing on an aircraft carrier is dicey. Add in the better part of a decade in the "Hilton" and I'd say this is a guy that'll die when he's good and ready.

I vastly prefer McCain to Osama. But I want to see Osama beat Hitlery for the Dumbocrat nomination first.

“‘We’ll tell the mortgage companies: you eat 20 percent, we (the government) will eat 20 percent, you won’t foreclose on these people,’ he said. ‘When you’re in a hole, you quit digging.’”

Umm… what’s this “we”? Oh, right: he means savers & responsible taxpayers.

I completely see your point BUT if any US government forces the banks to split the losses 50-50, I'll be ecstatic. So far there is every indication that they are forcing them to eat practically nothing (what with all the rate reductions and TAF). And the UK seem to be doing even worse (as in nationalizing).

However, as an undecided on the Nov. election, there's a larger issue here for me. Politicians will say whatever during a campaign. One can look at their past history and close allies to guesstimate what they'll actually try (no guarantee of success, see Pres. Bush) to do. On those grounds, where do Obama supporters get their confidence that he's a "good bet" for the US?

(no flames please - I am genuinely stunned by the level of support he is receiving from practically everyone and I'd love to figure it out)

McCain does not see anything wrong with occupying Iraq for 100 years, well, neither do 99% of Americans either.

Every day is the Day Of The Condor in the Empire. Never forget that.

McCain does not see anything wrong with occupying Iraq for 100 years, well, neither do 99% of Americans either.

Make that 60% or so.

BayAreaIdiot,

I think part of the sensation comes from what McCain describes as the "Holiday from History". Everyone is SO tired of the war (and Bush) they're willing to agree to (or jump on) any bandwagon they see as providing relief?

*See "BDS"

DinOR
a very good theory, thanks! There must surely be other dynamics at play too though...I'll keep looking :-)

On those grounds, where do Obama supporters get their confidence that he’s a “good bet” for the US?

I'm hardly an Obama groupie/fanatic, but I guess his modest appeal for me could be summed up as:
--not pro-quagmire
--not pro-bailout
--not Hillary

but HARM (with the exception of point 3!) those other two items are what he says. Any politician can and will say anything they deem useful in an election campaign. How do you know (or more accurately "guesstimate") what he'll actually try to do? Or is it just that you find the alternatives so unpalatable, you'd rather take a gamble than stay at home and not vote at all?

peeterPee - nope, 99% at least. You don't get my Day Of The Condor reference. 99% at least of Americans do NOT want to comprimise on their Way Of Life(tm) and that includes cheap-ish gas, and all the other fruits of Empire. Cheney is NOT stupid, and when he said our Way Of Life(tm) is not negotiable, he merely said what 99% of Americans feel, deeply, but don't have the guts to come out and say, themselves.

Cheney is NOT stupid, and when he said our Way Of Life(tm) is not negotiable, he merely said what 99% of Americans feel, deeply, but don’t have the guts to come out and say, themselves.

I see your point.

HARM, I thought Obama is very anti-guns.

How do you know (or more accurately “guesstimate”) what he’ll actually try to do?

How do we know with 100% certainty what *any* politician will do once elected? That alone is not sufficient reason to write off anyone new and just go with the same sorry-ass, bought off incumbents. In any case, despite his short voting record in the Senate, he generally seems to vote on principle. And Hillary consistently votes with the neocons and Wall Street, while pretending to be "pro-working class".

justme,

I fail to see a connection in advocating any Pres. take up residence in said hot-spot at the end of his term and... creating a lasting peace?

That aside, there are hundreds of thousands of U.S vets taking up permanent residence in the Philippines. Through the Huk Rebellion, Martial Law, Marcos rule, Peoples Power Revolution and the rise of Islamic extremists. So yeah, I guess we DO put our money where our mouth is.

Shit! When do we go!?

@Peter P,

Not exactly. His record on 2nd Amendment is not great, but still better than Hillary's:

http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=9490
http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=55463

Well, I guess Obama is someone I can sit down and have sushi with.

DinOR,

Well, yeah, what was supposed to be a deterrent to starting war against small faraway countries might end up being additional suffering for said country.

All attempts at humor aside, I suppose the Philippines is a little different because they have traditionally been thankful that we overturned the Japanese occupation of WW2. Perhaps more similar to Kuwait than to Iraq?

justme, war is a necessary evil in the human world.

Some wars are better managed than others (e.g. The Falklands War). But not all wars are the same. We should let history judge them.

[comment deleted by moderator]

well nobody is talking about 100% metaphysical certainty, nor am i say new guys should be disqualified. However, he is a special kind of new guy: unless I am wrong we have never before had someone so "green" (and I don't mean that in the Al Gore sense) become #1. Even Bush II had two terms as Gov.

You concede his short voting record but say it's good enough for you. To be honest, I look through his voting record and I can't fairly see any pattern - of course that could be because it's short, or more likely because I'm not skilled in reading voting records.

To me he is a gigantic question mark. I honestly have no idea what he would try to do if elected. Except I'm pretty sure he would give nice speeches.

ExSVR,

Warning: racist insults like that can subject you to moderation. Keep that stuff to yourself, thank you.

Here's another bit of financial fallout from the impending/underway recession: Sharper Image files for BK. I guess once the money gets tight, FB's pull back on purchasing $2000 massage chairs and $50 nose hair clippers...

Serious question: how do you guys hedge your GLD positions? GLD has no options and XAU does not track well with the metal.

DInOR
your post at 12:53pm was channeling Mish from globaleconomicanalysis:

"People want change, closure, and healing. Neither McCain or Hillary can provide that."

Maybe your theory is IT after all. I wonder if Obama can possibly provide any of that though.....(well he will provide some sort of change for sure, so 1 out of 3 is in the bag)

Maybe they'll have a firesale and I can pick up those nose clippers for a couple of bucks!

Peter P,

I'm no fan of starting wars and then "let history judge them". Having the war judged unjust LATER is no consolation for all who died. I want a opredisdent that will judge and weigh war carefully before starting them.

I want two of those ion air purifiers!

Peter P,

I looked at GLD and XAU after you mentioned them. but I'm not into gold or precious metals. Wouldn't mind hearing how to short it, though. Could become handy soon.

Apparently I can't type president. Maybe I have to go military style and start calling him POTUS.

Wouldn’t mind hearing how to short it, though.

Shorting gold? Isn't it like shorting homes in 2003? :)

Disclaimer: I hold GLD

Not investment advice.

@justme,

Oh I realize you didn't intend it in ALL seriousness! The truth is that things weren't always so smooth between us. Not long after the fall of the Spanish Fleet at Manila Bay there was a rather hasty rebellion and ongoing skirmishes for years.

After WWII the majority of the $'s for rebuilding went to Japan (more bad feelings) so just b/c we're both primarily Christian and english-speaking let's not be fooled. It's been a rough road. So yeah, it's been about a hundred years and we're STILL working on our relationship!

BayAreaIdiot,

Thanks, I only wish! Actually Dick Morris www.dickmorris.com probably has the best read on this. He's been incredibly accurate (with the exception) of declaring Hillary the next Pres. to wake people TFU!

I will say although I'll likely be voting McCain (because of my slavish devotion to the staus quo... :( and my nature to be assured that we're kicking @ss "somewhere") I could certainly live w/ Obama as POTUS than HC any day! Besides (and here's a little tidbit in his favor) the guy's a White Sox Fan! We'd have THAT in common!

@Harm

I do see the issues on the Second Amendment and see that Barrack only has made 3 votes. The vote for the Firearm Confiscation Prohibition Amendment did surprise me. This was a big thing that angered me after the Katrina/N.O. screwup.

In practice, this law will not be enforced in the courts. It will be enforced when civilians give the same treatment to the cops as they do to the looters. This vote by Clinton seals the deal for me. I will vote for the devil over her.

DinOR
and my nature to be assured that we’re kicking @ss “somewhere

in the end, that might be the deciding factor for me too. But it's still too soon (for me) to dismiss the possibility of voting Dem.

DinOR,
I really like that "Condi vs. Hillary" book that Dick Morris wrote.

@justme-

Pretty sure you were joking but if not here is the information on shorting. GLD is an easy to borrow ETF so your broker should have no problem letting you short (just like a stock). Go ahead and sell short all you want - it will be that much more for the rest of us to buy.

XAU is diffrent as it is an index of gold stocks - not a tradeable ETF. For that you might look at GDX.

Not investment advise.

advise = advice

XAU is diffrent as it is an index of gold stocks - not a tradeable ETF. For that you might look at GDX.

XAU has index options, though they seem to be not as liquid as GDX options.

Why doesn't GLD have options??? :(

Not investment advice

"The Next Slum? Turning America's McMansions into tomorrows tenements"

Interesting article in the Atlantic positing a new exodus from the burbs into the town. Nice points on reflection of an attitude change in TV and Hollywood I had not considered, and a vivid, disturbingly dark painting of the "new slums". A rather shocking vision actually, changed my viewpoint of what the landscape might look like in a few years.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

DinOR Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Malcom,
"With escalating housing costs most of my retired buddies have been driven inland. Temecula, Murrieta etc. I lived in Imperial Beach and still check prices there from time to time. That aside it just seems SD has this legacy of corruption (Duke Cunningham and a number of mayors?)"

Encinitas is one of my favorite areas. Duke was a real disappointment for me since he was a childhood hero of mine. Roger Hedgecock is a weeney who has a radio talk show. The smoke was still clearing from his time in office when I moved here in 90. I've actually been on his now off the air TV show before I knew his past. My favorite scandal is probably the city council people who were bribed to change nudey bar laws. Too bad your friends are out in Riverside, that is a real pit. I hope they didn't buy houses there, we have friends who just announced they are walking away from a house that they are now 200K under water.