patrick.net

Hey, don't get me wrong --I never said personal responsibility, PMA and refusing to give up *wasn't* an important component of 'success' (however you choose to define it). It's just that the material type of "success" is not as easy to come by as some here may think.

I clearly recall being an eager "willing an able" college grad in '91, sending out a mountain of resumes and pounding the pavement daily (this was pre-web), and getting... hardly a single call back.

Willingness to work is no guarantee of success. Willingness + opportunity works much better.

Willingness to work is no guarantee of success. Willingness + opportunity works much better.

Don't forget the luck factor. Just go watch The Secret. Seriously.

Note that luck needs not be random. It is definitely possible to attract luck.

Even more important is to grab any opportunity (i.e. "good luck") with both hands when you see it.

Even more important is to grab any opportunity (i.e. “good luck”) with both hands when you see it.

Yes. One must be ready to receive.

I WILL say those options weren't as readily available for our kids. Had it not been for paying off their college loans and... coming up with a down payment for their house they'd be in an apartment and languishing in debt.

I have confidence though they'll do better b/c they spent so much time w/ me being honest about the mistakes "I" made!

There's a lot of practical lessons we can take away from this very blog for instance? It was reassuring for me to see there were others that shared my attitude and values about debt. Without a counter-balance it's all too easy for young people to get very comfortable w/ huge amounts of debt!

"One must be ready to receive"

That's .... true but one must also be willing to .... play the hand they're dealt. My way out of lower-middle class was through salesmanship. Yeah, I know, sucks but it was the BEST thing being remotely "offered" to me?

At some point you just have to say, hey, this is it. Fall in love with whatever "it" is and run with "it" as hard as you can. Of course there's no guarantee but look at all the kids that grow up w/ every advantage in the world and STILL manage to f@ck it up? Why... just look at all the "legacy" kids that we're doing better than? (Primarily b/c we're still ALIVE, but you get my drift)

For every Chris Gardner, there are 100's in not 1000's of rats chasing this dream that never actually get there. It's in the hard statistics, an undeniable fact.

Its useful for corporate interests to hold out this "dream"; to keep the rats running on the treadmills, chasing that carrot in all likelihood that will never be tasted. Microcosm example typical Big 5 consulting firm or high end law firms, churning through people, using them up, all chasing a carrot that maybe only a few percent ever reach.

Bill Gates, Michael Dell, Sergey Brin etal are held out as examples of the mobility that is possible, not unlike the casinos that publicize the million dollar jackpot winner who represents less than .0000015% of gamblers.

Seriously ingrained in our belief system is this uniquely American concept of material achievement and success. IMHO, our society would be better served with a different set of values and priorities. Granite countertops do nothing to further our civilization.

Materialism is a dead end in and of itself, it will prove our undoing.

Greenspan's Latest: Oil Boom Will Likely 'Go on Forever'

I am reconsidering my position re: Peak Oil. If AG's convinced it's real, then it must be wrong.

What Peak Oil?

At $100/b, economically-feasible oil is abundant in many places.

On the other hand, oil prices can also collapse through demand destruction.

I have more faith in the food boom.

HARM Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am
"As someone who grew up dirt poor (something Randy H and I have in common), I can attest that it’s a little of both. Bad personal choices may or may not have gotten your parents where they are, but children of poor parents must surmount incredible odds in order to rise above the muck of their upbringing –unlike their privileged elite peers, for whom success is all but guaranteed (think the Hiltons & Trumps)."

Harm, you deserved a response but I had to step out. Without even reading the other posts which followed I wanted to thank you for reminding me of that perspective, and I totally agree that starting out poor does stunt people's start in life. Although I never went without, my parents struggled and I can relate somewhat. I further think there is a nature/nurture angle to this as well. Thanks man.

So when are the US, Canada, and other such worthy contries going to form "OFEC": the organization of food exporting countries? Dirt-bag countries that piss us off will have their food supply curtailed. ;)

Dirt-bag countries that piss us off will have their food supply curtailed.

No pork bellies for them!

Oops.

Dirt-bag countries that piss us off will have their food supply curtailed.
Last I checked, we became net importers of food a couple of years back.

At $100/b, economically-feasible oil is abundant in many places.
Yeah, as long as you have a deep-water platform. We are already past peak EROEI for oil.
Speaking of energy, I am looking at a natural gas hedge. Anyboy want to sing the praises of tankless (NG) water heaters? Old reliable is starting to run out of hot water on occcasions...

My next water heater will be tankless unless someone here convinces me that it is a bad idea.

yeah, HARM, well put, I also had to step away for a while and some pretty good discussion got going about interesting topics.

Maybe I should ask Patrick if I can start to author a thread, so I don't just keep participating in derailing other people's threads (with inspiration from DennisN and NVR this time). But I should be careful what I wish for, I bet it is very hard work to come up with an original thread on demand. So maybe not :-).

Somehow I find it easier to be inspired by some pseudo-random musing that pops up along the way than I imagine it will be to sit down with a blank sheet of paper and be truly original.

Well, enough rambling....

I bet it is very hard work to come up with an original thread on demand. So maybe not :-).

Not at all.

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=108

T(h)ankless water heaters: I think this is more common elsewhere. I think I saw one in Hong Kong in 2004 or so. They also used to be much more common many years ago in Europe.

Does anyone have a good link?

http://www.greenlivingtips.com/articles/148/1/Tankless-water-heaters.html

justme Says:
February 25th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
"Maybe I should ask Patrick if I can start to author a thread, so I don’t just keep participating in derailing other people’s threads (with inspiration from DennisN and NVR this time). But I should be careful what I wish for, I bet it is very hard work to come up with an original thread on demand. So maybe not :-)."

I've thought the same thing but realize I prefer to comment than to create a topic. I have to admit I'm just not creative enough. I have a lot of respect for the thread authors here because they come up with really good material that is relevant to many people's lives.

LOL Peter. Jokingly this is a thread you would start:

Homelessness in America....
Who should pay for the funeral when a homeless person starves in America due to his own laziness?

I have been thinking about a new thread topic the past few days...on reform of Prop 13. To whom should I send it for posting? Patrick? HARM?

You can also just post it here and someone will put it up.

PeterP,

I was on the net long before AOL and LOL (I used to hate that expression) came along.
But just for the record: LOL !! :-),. That was a classic Peter P.

Ok, I'm feeling frisky. Who's done an "upper decker" in a tankless water heather? Keep in mind, I had never heard of an upper-decker until right here on Patrick.Net a few weeks ago
Courtesy of Ex-Sunnyvale Renter, I believe.

"Turn on your tap and get hot and cold running crud."
--Pollution, by Tom Lehrer

The comments section in Peter P's tankless water heater link was a good summary of "negative experiences" that I have also read elsewhere on the internet. Be aware that others love their tankless systems and wouldn't part with them for any amount of money. One additional negative that I have seen is that you no longer have hot water if the electricity goes out as (all?) tankless systems have electronic ignition. Some people solve this problem with a UPS for backup. Also, the low flow issue is brought up by many when hand washing pots and pans at the kitchen sink.

Hmm. yeah. I think one can have multiple small tankless systems spread around the house in the kitchen, bathrooms, etc, I think that is what I saw in Hong Kong,. Some kind of battery-based or water-wheel-generator ignition ought to be possible. Of course, if it is all electrical that would no help either.

How about about local small-tank heaters with 5-10Gals of emergency supply?

HARM Says:

> Median Salary by Years Experience - Job: Painter,
> Construction and Maintenance (United States)
> 10-19 years $45,009

If you divide $45K by 52 you get $865/week when you divide by 40 you get ~$21.50/hour

Then Peter P Says:

> HARM, ‘job’ and ‘business’ are very different concepts.

I know illegal aliens that work their ass off painting working 10 hour days at $30 hour (or $1,500/week $78K a year) taking home more per month than guys with degrees that have “jobs” paying $100K.

Then HARM Says:

> Not all tradesmen make $100-200k/year, just the very best.

You only need to work a 40 hour week at $50/hour to clear $100K. Try and find anyone (even a crappy tradesman) that will work for less. When I plumber fixes a sink and charges $125/hour they also charge $125 for the crappy faucet that they bought for $29.99…

Added new thread by Dennis.

FAB,

I can buy that a lot of carpenter/plumber/contractor business is all cash & off the books, but if every one of those jobs (not the just the owners/foremen) made that kind of dough, then CA median housing : income ratio would be low enough to *almost* justify asking prices.

You can't take a few personal acquaintances from a fairly *select* group of people (your business associates) in the posh neighborhoods where you live & work and then extrapolate out to the whole population. If Patrick.net represented an "average" group of people, then the "average" Californian would have a Masters/PhD and make six figures.

I also don't buy the myth of all these "rich illegal aliens" all making $100k. If that were true, why are immigrant neighbrohoods in CA so poor --10 people living to a room, etc. And why not just hire an American to do the same thing (fewer potential legal liabilities)? The whole idea of hiring illegals is you pay crap, work them to death, don't provide any benefits, and fire them at will.

Shoot, I did house painting and yardwork during H.S., college and also moved furniture and did warehouse work after college (only jobs being offered). I would have killed for *any* job that paid that much.

There are simply not that many jobs as a % --cash-based or otherwise-- that pay that much. If there were, the housing bubble would not exist.

The rich illegal aliens is not entirely a myth. many immigrants are willing to work more/hr, save more and spend less. They become rich not because they get more $$/hr but because they are willing to save more and spend less.

Peter P bought a house. Makes it less pleasant to read about falling prices.

looks like more and more patrick.neters are pulling the trigger.
I am waiting for the day when patrick will buy a house :-)
Anyways, looks like the market is now in a state where its not easy to say whether to buy or not to buy.
It was pretty obvious ( atleast in patrick.net) in 2005 that buying was not the way to go.

I'll buy a house the day it's cheaper than renting. For me, it's not even close yet. It's just so damn cheap to rent by comparison with owning in Menlo Park, and anyway, prices are still falling.

But I do admit it has turned around in a lot of cheaper places. You can actually buy houses in Antioch and parts of Oakland and rent them out for a tidy profit, if you can handle collecting the rent from people who are probably on the edge financially. And maybe armed.

True, I had not thought about it, but rents (and therefore property prices) would be lower without Section 8 type subsidies.

But you can't let families with young kids be homeless. We should take care of our fellow citizens at least that much. What's a better way to do it?

True, I had not thought about it, but rents (and therefore property prices) would be lower without Section 8 type subsidies.
But you can’t let families with young kids be homeless. We should take care of our fellow citizens at least that much. What’s a better way to do it?

No, of course not! People who can ill afford to have children should be subsidized by those who work for a living. 'Magically' squeezing out children should give you a free spot on the public trough. If welfare recipients want to have dozens of children (by god knows how many baby~daddys) they should be encouraged to do so because we 'can't let families with young kids be homeless'. 'We should take care of our fellow citizens at least by that much.' *rolly~eyes emoticon*

Peter P bought a house.
Almost as stunning as when surfer-x capitulated. Do you know the city where Peter P settled?