patrick.net

Well shoot. If the NY Times has a story about Youwalkaway, it must be old news.

www.nytimes.com/2008/02/29/us/29walks.html?hp

There’s a whole lot of people who would’ve been stuck as renters without these exotic loan products,” Professor Sinai said. “Now it’s like they can do their renting from the bank, and if house values go up, they become the owner. If they go down, you have the choice to give the house back to the bank. You aren’t any worse off than renting, and you got a chance to do extremely well. If it’s heads I win, tails the bank loses, it’s worth the gamble.

Off topic,

But I did hear Bernanke right today when he said that oil and commodities being denominated in US dollars was merely symbolic, right?

WTF? Is this guy seriously that big of an idiot? I'm not one of those who thinks the Fed is an evil cabal, or that I am smarter than [most] Fed governors. But WTF!?! This is intermediate macroecon stuff here. Of course USD reserve currency status matters. It's essential to how the process of seigniorage works, which is exactly what the frickin Fed has been using to provide liquidity.

We are seriously screwed, I'm starting to fear. Maybe Ben will have a short tenure and we can turn things around, but man...

Circulate a petition to make all 50 states colonies under the King Of England again - clearly this whole experiment has failed horribly.

Call it the Tory movement.

No lie. In 7th grade we had a mock debate historical debate in which we determined whether the 13 colonies would declare independence or not. I was the lead proponent on the side that we throw out the Radicals and reaffirm our loyalty to the Crown.

I've written my congressfolk. It's pretty much hopeless though. Their will be bail outs. They will try to make them not look like bailouts by doing things like having GSE take over loans (which will eventually go bad and then the USG will be obliged to bail them out). They'll call them 'tax credits' (in other words cash handouts). They'll come out with 'emergency homeowner loans' at 0%, which effectively lets the banksters profit on the 0% to 6% spread. They'll delay and keep pushing out the problem. But the banking systems is in real trouble and it's just getting worse.

Protest if you want, and I'll cheer you on, but there will be bailouts.

@Bap33
I think good people will do better and bad people will quit procreating if welfare ended now.

-----------------------------

There is definitely a group of people out there with no common sense - some of them are my patients. If you stop welfare, they might procreate even more.

We are seriously screwed, I’m starting to fear. Maybe Ben will have a short tenure and we can turn things around, but man…

What to buy? What to short?

Gold is still advancing in Asia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=a5wYci7PAHtg&refer=india

There is definitely a group of people out there with no common sense - some of them are my patients. If you stop welfare, they might procreate even more.

I propose a 1 Troy Oz Gold carbon tax for every newborn in the world. :twisted:

Paul Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
"I don’t know about Australia but Canada has a program where you invest 800k cando for five years (I believe this to mean put it in a bank or Canadian treasuries) and pass a knowledge test and you’re in!"

I think it is less money, but anyway, if you've had a professional job, and with a master's degree you probably have enough points to go as a skilled worker. I barely score high enough but at least the degree is good for something. If you get a job offer, or have a relative there that also helps. They are picky and it costs $500 or so to find out but they have a sample score sheet which is strightforward.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/index.asp

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/assess/index.asp

To save you some reading this should be the self assessment link. Just click the take test link at the bottom.

I score a 71.

Paul,

here is the DIMA site of Oz.
http://www.immi.gov.au/migrants/index.htm

If you are interested in investment immigration, I believe the minimum price tag is $2M AUD, oh well, soon-to-be USD.

Randy,

I think Ben is adopting a policy of giving up on USD to save the economy. We really don't have a choice. Avert the Great Depression II or give up the status of world's reserve currency? Tough call.

DEFENSIVE BEN
By PAUL THARP

February 28, 2008 -- Ben Bernanke is shooting blanks in his battle with inflation, leaving him powerless to protect the greenback from getting clobbered.
The Federal Reserve chief defended his inflation-fighting policy before a testy congressional hearing yesterday on the economy, and played what had once been his most potent card - promises of rate cuts to pump more cheap money into the economy.

Wall Street bit, but only briefly, leaving shares flat by the end of the day. The dollar was hit hard worldwide, skidding to a new all-time low, while gold and oil climbed to new highs.

Several panel members who grilled Bernanke complained that his rate cuts were having the unwelcome effect of sharply devaluing the dollar, wiping out the nest eggs of countless Americans.

Crude spiked here above $102 a barrel for the first time, settling lower at $99.64 on reports of oversupplies of oil and gasoline.

The weak dollar is blamed for pushing gold and oil into the stratosphere since more dollars are needed than ever before to buy a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold, which also hit a new high here yesterday of $961.30 an ounce.

When oil is theoretically priced in gold rather than dollars, the price of a barrel of oil is nearly unchanged in the past year. But when paid in dollars, the price of a barrel of oil is up 66 percent.

The dollar dropped to an all-time low, trading at $1.5143 against the euro, easing to $1.5135 by the end of trading here.

Bernanke assured the panel that the Fed is prepared to start lowering interest rates back to historic lows, despite inflation.

He said the Fed "will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks."

A key inflation measure shows factories hiking prices on wholesale goods by an annualized rate of 12 percent, based on government data earlier this week showing a 1 percent hike in January alone.

Another government report yesterday showed a steeper-than-expected slide in business expansion, with durable goods orders dropping 5.3 percent in January.

Under questioning from lawmakers, Bernanke acknowledged that the Fed has made "mistakes in terms of regulation and oversight" regarding the housing bubble and Wall Street's over-leveraged heyday.

He said it might be "worthwhile" for the federal government to buy distressed mortgages to help ease the housing recession.

The Dow jumped about 120 points a few minutes after Bernanke spoke, and retreated to 12,694.28 - adding just 9.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.27 to 1,380.02, and the Nasdaq rose 8.79 to 2,353.78.

"New problems in the economy are popping up like a not-very-funny version of whack-a-mole," said Rep. Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY).

"Many commentators are now saying that credit cards will be the next area of consumer credit where overburdened borrowers will no longer be able to pay their bills."

Woo-hoo, I scored a 75! O, Canada here I come?

Nothing against the Canucks, but Oregon seems more my speed (keep the lights on, DinOR, I'll get there yet ;-) ).

New problems in the economy are popping up like a not-very-funny version of whack-a-mole

Ooh, I loved that game. :)

Remember, in the good old days, we play whack-a-troll here all the time.

OO

Should I resurrect the ZIRP discussion thread? Seems we are going to pursue a ZIRP strategy after all.

And here I was only musing about it a year ago.

By all means, Randy.

Yen is on the move, BTW.

You think they'll stop at ZIRP? What's to stop 'em from going *negative*? Once the Fed starts paying us to borrow, even I'll go on a debt bender.

Once the Fed starts paying us to borrow, even I’ll go on a debt bender.

Remember those 107% LTV non-recourse mortgages?

Remember those 107% LTV non-recourse mortgages?

Yeah... and to think I called such people "stupid". Live almost rent-free for a year or two on your teaser, then get another 6-9 months totally free while they FC. If you get extra lucky and the current MBS servicer loses the paperwork, you can tie 'em up in court for a few more years. However.. you do end up with a trashed credit score, which could make it hard to get a real loan once the bottom is (really) in and opportunities abound.

Note to self: listen to your own advice once in a while.

“In a market rigged to reward the reckless, imprudent and immoral, the very dumbest thing you can be is a market participant who behaves in a responsible, prudent and moral manner.”

Reputable Sources

Yeah, sometimes it is reckless to be prudent. Look at all those responsible savers in the Great Depression.

Why is the world so screwed up?

Why, oh why? Why did Adam eat that apple?

Where have all the blog trolls gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the blog trolls gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the blog trolls gone?
Fate has shocked them every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Just up - Hedge Fund in UK has collapsed - the first of many do you think?

Peter P - I miss the trolls too :-(

Maybe my name is really Cassandra.

*sigh*

Just up - Hedge Fund in UK has collapsed - the first of many do you think?

Well, if Yen continues to go up, I don't know how much de-leveraging will occur.

In a healthy speculative market, most participants must fail. Yet for the past few years, a lot of so-called hedge funds have been reaping huge profits. When there is widespread speculative gains, someone must be mis-underestimating risks.

Canada doesn't want me...I scored a 62. I got zero points on age: at 55 I'm too old for them.

76. I guess those degrees are good for one thing. Maybe I should try to arrange a number of visas to workable destinations as a sort of option portfolio.

HARM,

You would be made most welcome sir! (Any micro-brews you favor in particular?)

Here's what little I know about becoming an ex-pat in Oz, UK etc. I've known guys that were stationed there. (Some for years...) It is, in the end, quite maddening. Sure they speak english and all but they don't understand (whatever it is that you're into) and you get depressed in short order. And that leads to.... drinking.

You're no longer that gregarious "Yank" because you now hold these people in contempt. You'd give anything for ____. You begin to HATE them, and like it or not you're counting down the days until you get back to "the world".

A far better thing to go El Salvador (or my personal favorite) the Philippines! Places so weird you'd never mistake it "for being 'almost' like home".

Anyway, be of good cheer! We didn't make this (but we bears will clean it up) For the majority of my life if it weren't for cleaning up other's messes... I wouldn't have had a job at all.

Oh wait, I should have spelled that "favour" and "favourite"?

No offense intended.

Peter P,

I LIKE it! Michelle Malkin posted Ken Depew's "We are the Defaulters" (sung to the tune of "We are the World") to honor the Neverland Ranch repo and jingle mailers every where!

Damn it! H-o-n-o-u-r!

Just apply as an american refugee to canada. War on Savers is torture. 1m crapshacks is cruel and unusual.

"Canada offers refugee protection to people in Canada who fear persecution or who may be at risk of torture or cruel and unusual treatment or punishment, and are unwilling or unable to return to their home country."

It's always good to know your options. I was British by birth so I can also reinstate that. I think I just need to take my old passport down to whatever consulate and apply for a new one. So I've got a few ways to bail out if things get bad:

Canada is a good option to have but wouldn't be my first choice. I need to visit and I've heard good things though. I've heard that people feel they get real value for their taxes and it isn't as cutthroat as here.
With the British nationality I have a lot of options since I could move directly to pretty much anywhere in Great Britain and places in the Caribbean. I was born on an island named Nevis, which is now independent. I could also live there, and they don't normally take foreigners. I say that because like Canada, if you buy a house for more than 250K US, you can be considered an investor and begin your citizenship process.
Don't forget there is always Mexico. All of this fear of a collapse here was part of the reason I was looking at San Felipe. I have 2 sets of friends who actually did buy homesites as a hedge to a meltdown here. I think they are overpriced for something nice on the Sea of Cortez but you can still buy something reasonable. (You can own, although the sales pitch still needs to be scrutinized.) There is always South and Central America. Places like Costa Rica want us there.
There are also the Pacific and Asian countries to consider. I don't personally know how easy it would be to go to the Philippines but I know a guy who met a girl over the internet, he went there and almost didn't come back. Something tells me it is an option. I imagine some of you still have some ties or claims to Asian options. I'm curious if that is a viable option for some of you and maybe you could make a suggestion for a nice place for a guy like me with no ancestory from that part of the world. There are also the flyover states here which is like moving to a foreign country.

DinOR, we're not in England yet, I'm pretty sure your original spelling is fine. It is a horse of a different colour there.

I know, you're thinking ahead. :)

Phew, now I feel a little better knowing that no matter how bad it gets there are always some countries more screwed up than ours where we can go and still have some sort of standard of living. The problem is that as we lose our ranking here there are fewer and fewer countries that we can just buy our way into. :(

Haha, I just read your post above it, you really were kidding. That's awesome!

"War on Savers is torture. 1m crapshacks is cruel and unusual." LOL!

I hear ya' bro! Economic Refugee Status anyone?

That aside, I'm SURE I wouldn't fit in in Canada. I travelled a LOT there as a kid and it was great. But now I complain about PORTLAND'S winter. It would only increase my snowbird schedule. (Pronounced "shed-yule")*

I over heard on CNBC that one of the bond traders said there was ZERO value in the subprime loans where the home was over-valued by 12% or more. ZERO. So that would be... what? The entire State of CA?