patrick.net

"other than leave the country??"

Completely unnecessary! Buy a houseboat in OR (no sales tax) moor it at Lake Meade (No NV income tax) I'll commute to Vegas before I'll take up Curling.

mbwd,

No matter how creative we get, the fact is that losses leading to bank failures will eventually fall on the taxpayer's shoulders. There is no reason to modify a nonrecourse loan, the bank can voluntarily take a short sale or can take the house back, their choice. This plan only adds risk to banks with no greater benefit to anyone. It is wrong and will make things much worse if a bank can't rely on a fixed note balance on a secured asset. This would open up the possibility of all sorts of abuses, and will cost more in the long run as they build the risk into pricing if they even bother to continue lending to the average Joe for a home purchase.

mbwd,
I apologize, I thought you were posting in support but reread your post below.

For anyone serious about getting out, I'd suggest once the fan start blowing stuff around it may be too late to escape anywhere. If a herd forms, which is the likely scenario should law and order evaporate, the US passé Porte may find visas difficult to come by. Perhaps the contractors building our Great Wall at the southern border, whose pilot just failed key measures and has been put on hold status btw, should begin business development efforts in Mexico City immediately.

The time to make any of these kinds of hedging arrangements is now. It’s very complicated and difficult to relocate permanently even in these times. I can’t imagine too many countries will be welcoming to Americans after a small herd of expat boomers forms. Anti-immigration sentiment against the obese Americans will run deep everywhere.

My personal two cents is that it will not get quite that bad here, even after losing the banking system, and a significant stock market meltdown. Too much valuable infrastructure here, lots of sideline capital will go to work, and the government LE community has become very technologically adept at quelling public disturbance and manipulating public opinion. Crime and poverty will skyrocket, the gap between wealth classes will grow into a canyon, and standard of living will decline, but we live in a very interesting time and place with a very malleable population that might easily be repurposed on a grand scale.

What will the life at home and abroad be like if the hawks get their way and we end up in Syria, Iran, Pakistan, or any combination of them? I can't get a handle on how much of this resource shortage stuff is real, but it is certain that food, energy, and water scarcity has the potential to cause massive instability in third world governments all over the world. And soon. Where is it safe to be in that type of environment?

FAB,

Yes, they WILL be joining the Bear Ranks! I'd LOVE to see a Realtwhore's version of "License To Steal" ( a supposed expose' of the brokerage industry ) that really was more of a composite of urban myths.

Still and all it was an easy read filled w/ inaccuracies and half-truths yet well rec'd by the public. Time for a REIC Edition!

No problem Malcom.

I agree with your post.

Let's do something to get that message out and into the media.

North,
I thought that too. It is the same Johnnycomelately mentality. We've already missed the window for a good exchange on our money, and I imagine the line is longer now than before. BUT, it hasn't become hip quite yet so maybe it is a good idea to get in line now for when things really are bad. I was seriously viewing the $500 application fee as an insurance policy. (BTW, this is a classic example of how you have to beat the herd)

Ug, leave it to the boomers to make Canada hate us as well. No offense to anyone but the age thing on the application is probably a subtle message. Sorry.

Is it safe to assume that the most derivatives-laden banks are the safest?

I suspect that many more former REALTORs © will soon join us to talk about the bubble as bears…

I suspect many already have, just as obviously some bears have capitulated and bought homes in the past couple years. Not that I blame them, if I'd pulled the trigger -- and we were all tempted if we are honest with ourselves -- then I wouldn't bother blogging about it anymore either.

This is why I'm pretty certain when I call out bullshitters on other forums like the infamous Zillow discussions. When realty types are crowing about how much money they're making investing & selling and such you can be certain the opposite is true. Anyone making money in RE today is necessarily working their living ass off.

I am happy to see that the level of discourse seems to have returned to one of reasonable civility around here. All the klan this and aryan nation that was a bit too much to take.

I am happy to see that the level of discourse seems to have returned to one of reasonable civility around here.

Some comments were so detached from reason that I just saw them as comics.

I am a big fan of Canada. See, I am not a blind market fanatic. :)

I think social engineering may work, but only if you have few people sitting atop a colossal pile of natural resources. It is like brothers gentlemanly sharing a huge inheritance.

Damn lawyers! (Dennis excluded)

Poll time. Which is worse about me?

1) I'm a boomer.
2) I'm a lawyer.
3) I live with several cats.
4) I took Patrick.net consensus advice and sold SJ crapshack in May 2006.
5) I took advantage of Prop 13 for 25 years but now want it repealed.
6) Now that I'm not working I want the Dems to bill the Gen Xer's for national health care

Anyone making money in RE today is necessarily working their living ass off.

Again, wit and luck are all important. Don't forget that the top of the food chain has access to hundreds of thousands of newbie wage slaves.

Dennis, one of my best friends is a boomer lawyer.

I live with several cats.

I have always been RENTER.

I would have taken advantage of ANY advantageous legislation if possible.

It is all natural to stick-it-to-em.

You are not so bad.

I was contacted this week by two newbie executive technology recruiters. Both were peddling real estate two or three months ago. I got the distinct impression they both were lost in the woods. I suppose a reasonable place to put those skillsets to work, but I suspect they don't see the wall rapidly approaching that business either.

I am thinking about getting a real estates license just for the fun of it.

I'll answer with my own poll:

Which is worse about me?

1) I’m a boomer despising Xer.
2) I’m a tech & finance entrepreneur.
3) I live with a large dog who hates cats (actually he passed recently).
4) I like to start fights with people on Patrick.net.
5) I want Prop 13 repealed, no exceptions. One reason is because I believe it will unburden high net worth personal state income taxation and corporate state taxation.
6) I think boomers should be afforded nationalized, free healthcare. The hitch is it must all be purely naturopathic from locally grown herbs. The evils of antibiotics, antivirals, vaccinations, splints and casts, aspirin, and back pain cremes will be reserved for my son's generation.

How is this for an effective protest against the bailouts:

I will set myself on fire and burn to death outside the white house/NAR/other government building.

I even just sent in for one of those $40 coupons good for a basic ATSC tuner, even though both my sets have one. www.dtv2009.gov I'll plug it into my spare-parts stereo in the garage for when I'm working on the car. Is this an abuse of the system? These coupons, like Prop 13, were billed as being "so poor granny's TV won't stop working next year".

Maybe I shouldn't mention that my federal income tax for 2007 got beaten down to around $750 total. :) With the GWB "stimulus" rebate, that should get down to around $150 net.

Sometimes I just feel guilty gaming the system.

I will set myself on fire and burn to death outside the white house/NAR/other government building.

A bunch of Buddist monks in Vietnam tried this, and see what it got them.

Sometimes I just feel guilty gaming the system.

Huh?

@Randy

Which is worse about me?

#2 for sure. Small dogs who hate cats are much better.

Dennis has followed my 'boomer retirement plan' exactly.

Who can blame them? (Dennis how much pot did you smoke while dogding draft? hehe)

Lots of doom and gloom posts today. I do not think the nation will collapse, just a reset in material standard of living. Not of the Mad Max variety, but more like the 1950s-1960s lifestyles of one car per family, smaller houses, shared rides to work, home economics like meatloaf, etc.

When Hurricane Isabel passed by here, it knocked out power for over a week. Nobody had A/C, cable, or nintendo. The result was kids went outside to ride bikes and play ball. Adults went out on the porches (too hot indoors) and actually got to know the neighbors. We shared cooking on gas grills, and one guy with a generator kept food frozen until needed. People took walks and got up and went to bed earlier. After the power came back, people went back inside and resumed their previous lifestyles with TV, A/C, lights, and kids on video games.

Maybe the "recession" will have the same effect as Isabel. People may stop spending all their time chasing material toys and put more emphasis on other aspects of life.

@DennisN,

Since you're a regular member of this blog and have common sense, you qualify for Un-Boomer(tm) status.

Headset,

Nothing like a good old "typhoon party" now is there? I happen to think it will be more like the 70's (only without all that funky music) You'll see more people that have "living arrangements" and we'll all wonder why a single gal "needed" a 3,000 sq. ft. home in the 1st place?

For the most part, this "recession" we've all been dreading/fearing will be more about jettisoning a bunch of cr@p we didn't need to begin with like a "special" pre-school for the twins and elective surgery. Some recession.

The anti boomer rantes go too far. I seem to remember the boomers said 'dont trust anyone over 30' now the next generation bashes them. Pretty normal.

IN OTHER NEWS los angeles is crashing crastacularly.

SF Valley (porn captal of the world) down 24% in 7 months.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/02/valley-meltdown.html?ref=patrick.net

LA times blog is totally bearish on RE. lovely to read.

Right when HARM moves to bay area, LA crashes. He is probably bringing it with him -its probably infectious that way -.

Headset,

Nice post, and I agree mostly. But different communities will cope differently. There are some places where neighborhoods in stress might not be so Norman Rockwell, Watts for instance.

The a big difference in scenario of course is the temporary aspect of Isabel rolling through. Would your neighbors be so neighborly if their food was running out and jobs are no longer available?

Camping would be fun and novel for awhile, but eventually thoughts would turn to throwing the local cat owning attorneys on the Barbie. As tinfoil as it sounds, I seriously think things will degenerate to the point where it will be more dangerous to walk the streets after dark.

DinOr,

As usual, you take my point and express it much more clearly.

Speaking of the 70's , be honest. Didn't you wear "feely shirt" polyester in 1979? And have fun with partner dances like the "Hustle"? What about that disco cassette you played in your Sparkomatic in the dash of your 1981 Turbo Trans Am (worlds only production turbocharged V-8)? Or had you gone Urban Cowboy by then?

Actually HK I didn't pass your retirement plan closely at all. My family was in northern CA since the mid-1800's so I didn't just move there in the 60's. I was too young to be drafted for the Vietnam War, turning 18 in 1971. But I never had a college deferment: I was in the first draft lottery and they simply didn't take me. No pot in college: I ran the UCSC students for Dick Nixon in 1972 (a thankless job if there ever was one).

Randy H Says:

> I’ll answer with my own poll: Which is worse about me?

> 1) I’m a boomer despising Xer.

I’m technically a Boomer (’63), but I’ve always hated Boomers and most of my friends are Xers.

> 2) I’m a tech & finance entrepreneur.

I’m a real estate & finance entrepreneur.

> 3) I live with a large dog who hates cats (actually he
> passed recently).

My fiancé has a large dog that likes me (and riding in the 996 with the top down).

> 4) I like to start fights with people on Patrick.net.

I like to end fights on Patrick.net (so people don’t leave)…

> 5) I want Prop 13 repealed, no exceptions. One reason
> is because I believe it will unburden high net worth
> personal state income taxation and corporate state taxation.

I don’t “want” Prop 13 repealed, but I think it is unfair and “should” be repealed just like I don’t “want” the smoking ban in bars repealed even thought I think it is wrong to tell a man how to run his business and “should” be repealed.

> 6) I think boomers should be afforded nationalized,
> free healthcare. The hitch is it must all be purely
> naturopathic from locally grown herbs. The evils of
> antibiotics, antivirals, vaccinations, splints and casts,
> aspirin, and back pain cremes will be reserved for my
> son’s generation.

I don’t think that the government has the right to take our money for anything other than running our courts and protecting the general population (for all threats foreign and domestic). Since I know that most people don’t agree with me (especially greedy boomers) I do my best to give the government as little as possible each year…

I don’t think that the government has the right to take our money for anything other than running our courts and protecting the general population (for all threats foreign and domestic).

I absolutely agree!

People who disagree with you because they hope "progressive" taxation will stick the bill to someone else.

DennisN Says:

> No pot in college: I ran the UCSC students for Dick
> Nixon in 1972 (a thankless job if there ever was one).

In all my years in Northern California I have never met (or even heard of) a UCSC student that was a non pot smoker or Republican. At Cal in the early 80’s there were just a handful of non pot smoking or Republicans (most of the super smart non pot smoking Asians had no interest in politics and most of the conservative fraternity and sorority girls smoked at least a little pot)…

The Treasury Secretary appears to be throwing his weight in a sound direction, quoted from a speech in Chicago yesterday.

Plans for sweeping federal programs that would aid troubled mortgage borrowers would bring unfair relief to speculators and reward investors who made bad bets, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday.

Problem is, what power does the Treasury Secretary have over legislation? "Thanks for your testimoney, Mr Paulson, the committee will take it under consideration."

Dick Nixon must have been a disappointment. He failed to cut tax and he imposed wage and price control. These are unforgivable sins.

NVR,

Good point, and more importantly, HP is no Robert Rubin! (But his kind words are appreciated)

When the call comes at 3 a.m. in the White House, who do you want answering the phone?

A war hero?

"Or had you gone Urban Cowboy by then?" LOL!

No actually I was able to get thru the 70's even though I was "deprived" of all those things. I just get worn thin when I hear about "bracing yourself" for the 'mother of all recessions'. Especially forecasts from analysts that were basically on board w/ David Lereah until the end of '05?

FAB,
There were two of us in the UCSC class of 1975. The other is Victor Davis Hanson, a history/classics prof. who is one of the editors of National Review.

Peter P,
Yes Nixon was a disappointment, but the better alternative in 1972. My liberal friends always get uptight when I remind them that "Nixon was the last truely liberal president".

Randy and Dennis, that's hilarious.

Randy's poll would have to be on a descending scale, since hating boomers, starting fights on Patrick.net and liking dogs to me are positives.

Dennis, I admire anyone who takes a risk and hangs it out like you did. You strike me as being like Alex P Keaton's dad on Family Ties. Just a gentle easygoing guy. You've got a 'boomer pass' in my book and being here makes you a counterboomer which is just my term for an unboomer. Your love of cats, that's a different story.