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The Biggest Default In History


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2008 Mar 2, 10:50am   21,169 views  266 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

real money

The biggest default in history has already happened: the US has devalued its promises of repayment to everyone who bought US Treasuries or US bonds of any kind, by devaluing the dollar 50% in just a few years.

What does this mean for the US? Higher interest rates. I don't understand why any person or any government would trust the dollar after this. The logical course of action would be to demand much higher interest rates to compensate for the risk of holding what is rapidly turning out to be only so much green toilet paper.

The thing I don't get is the huge gap between the interest rate the Fed sets for interbank lending (which seems to limit what Americans can get on their CD's and savings) and the very high rates we now see for municipal bond lending (sometimes as high as 20%). Something just doesn't make sense.

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155   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 9:50am  

Kaygetsu sounds pretty pricey, since I will be footing the bill, and there are plenty of world class Japanese restaurants down under.

Kaygetsu is the best possible value around, in my humble opinion. I am serious.

Below $100 is a possibility for the a la carte menu.

Are there any fantastic, unique Californian food that can blow visitors away without being too damaging on the wallet? Anything below $100 pp would be good.

Ritz Carlton, The Dining Room in the city.

I think it should be possible to get away with under $100 pp without wine.

156   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 9:52am  

Viognier in San Mateo is not bad either, and it is much easier to book.

157   OO   2008 Mar 4, 9:53am  

Peter P,

the problem is all Aussies are alcoholic. Is there any place closer by without doing the long jog into the city?

158   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 9:59am  

the problem is all Aussies are alcoholic. Is there any place closer by without doing the long jog into the city?

Chez TJ in Mountain View has improved a bit. You can try that out too. But it may be over $100 with wine pairing.

If they like steaks, Fleming's just opened up at Stanford Shopping Center. I recommend medium-rare-MINUS*. :)

*Consuming raw or undercooked meat, poultry, seafood, shellfish or eggs may increase your risk of food-borne illness.

159   OO   2008 Mar 4, 10:16am  

Peter P,

thanks for all the suggestions, I will check them out @ yelp.

160   OO   2008 Mar 4, 10:18am  

Peter P,

I just found out that opentable is running a promo on 1000 points for a bunch of restaurants, seemingly the economy is really HURTING in the Bay Area.

1000 points = $10 open table dining coupon, but you need at least 2000 points for redemption. Still, eating out twice and get $20 back, that is not a bad deal at all.

161   OO   2008 Mar 4, 10:19am  

Well, don't forget the 3% visa card rebate on top of that. Life is good.

162   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 10:21am  

I just found out that opentable is running a promo on 1000 points for a bunch of restaurants, seemingly the economy is really HURTING in the Bay Area.

Sometimes, I get 1000 points just for dining at odd hours. :)

I use opentable whenever possible. It is a great invention.

163   SP   2008 Mar 4, 10:37am  

@OO,

Creola in San Carlos is a pretty good New Orleans style place - not quite California, but may be an interesting new experience for visitors from AU. It runs quite a bit less than $100 p.p., though. :-)

164   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 4, 10:37am  

I'd imagine the Fed chief job is a complex seat in which to plop ones ass. I've a fraction of the information, and much BS to filter, compared to what Ben B has at his disposal. I have no idea whether his loosening and timing of same was smart, I understand it caused people to loose. But I don't know that those were bad decisions. I know this swim against much of the blogosphere contempt.

I've read a good bit of Bernanke’s academic work out of curiosity relative to depression economics. I found him to be intellectually deep and my impression is of a moral man. I'm glad I don't have his job right now.

Did his loosening prevent a crash? Maybe. Many on the wrong side of the bet lost money, but maybe it stopped a true panic. I don't know for sure. I'll give Ben B the benefit of the doubt, not blind faith but some trust.

Where would we be right now if we held interest rates high? Interesting exercise, I don't know.

A stock market panic and sell off creates economic damage in the real world, it is part of the fed chairs job to stem massive fear until cooler heads prevail. Fear feeds on itself. Its a judgment call I suppose, I don't have serious problems with Ben's calls so far. I'm not sure I would have made the same ones, but no serious issue. He must maintain confidence in our markets, no easy job after all the slime peddling.

I do however take serious issue with calls coming out of the Bush cabinet, DOJ, FDA, EPA, State, HHS, Treasury. No real leadership shown out of that group.

Ben B's toughest calls are in front of him. Its way too early in the game to draw judgement on the man.

165   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 10:41am  

Creola in San Carlos is a pretty good New Orleans style place - not quite California, but may be an interesting new experience for visitors from AU.

Ooh, I have to try that out. :)

166   EBGuy   2008 Mar 4, 10:42am  

OT: Need restaurant recommendations

OO, don't you owe us a review of Nick's Cove (which still seems to be getting ubiquitous press coverage -- that is some PR machine)?

167   SP   2008 Mar 4, 10:50am  

Few others from my notes...

- Yuzu Sushi in San Mateo
- Sakae Sushi in Burlingame
- Hola Mexican in Burlingame (yeah, I know - upscale Mexican is kind of an oxymoron around here)
- Cascal tapas in Mountain View (I am kind of bored of it now, but people who go there for the first time still seem to like it)

168   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 10:53am  

Cascal tapas in Mountain View (I am kind of bored of it now, but people who go there for the first time still seem to like it)

Try the black ink paella!

Hola Mexican in Burlingame (yeah, I know - upscale Mexican is kind of an oxymoron around here)

But is it upscale Mexican? I have almost given up on the cuisine.

169   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 10:55am  

I like Sakae Sushi too. But it ain't cheap if you go crazy. :)

170   SP   2008 Mar 4, 10:58am  

# Peter P Says:
Creola in San Carlos
Ooh, I have to try that out. :)

Here you go - I had their card right here on my desk. Better call ahead for a table.

344 el camino real, san carlos, ca
650.654.0882
http://www.creolabistro.com/

171   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 10:59am  

Of course, for the ultimate fish experience (both quality and quantity) you have to try Sawa Sushi in Sunnyvale.

Too much fish even for me.

Stay away from *anything* cooked.

172   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 11:02am  

Which is the best place for Oyster Rockefeller?

173   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 11:05am  

Here you go - I had their card right here on my desk. Better call ahead for a table.

Thanks, SP!

I want a Gumbo and a Étouffée. :)

174   SP   2008 Mar 4, 11:06am  

Peter P Says:
Hola Mexican in Burlingame
But is it upscale Mexican?

It is a shade higher than typical mexican places, but not really the sommelier-and-cheese-tray type of upscale. They have a few dishes that you don't find elsewhere.

The place is a bit... um... festive, but if you can stand the noise, it's worth a try if you're in the 'hood.

175   OO   2008 Mar 4, 12:32pm  

SP,

thanks for the suggestions, Creola looks good. I have no problem if it is quite a bit below $100 pp :-)

EBGuy,

unfortunately something urgent came up for the week that I was gonna head up to Nick's Cove so I canceled the reservation. I still plan to go up though, it's just a bit far away so I need to plan ahead. I will definitely write a food review after I eventually make it up there.

176   DennisN   2008 Mar 4, 12:36pm  

There are lots of good old-standby places in the south bay but they go up and down in quality. I moved out two years ago so take this with a grain of salt: La Foret in New Almaden is a wonderful place with a deep wine list.

177   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 2:31pm  

La Foret in New Almaden is a wonderful place with a deep wine list.

I agree. They make good sauces too!

178   Peter P   2008 Mar 4, 5:23pm  

I just discovered that the all-time high for gold price was $19390/oz on May 31, 1781.

Looks like we are still way off that high.

Not investment advice.

179   yodaking   2008 Mar 4, 5:35pm  

Hi, I was hoping somebody here could point me to a good free foreclosure listings site? (if it even exists) All the ones I see, you have to pay to access full listings.

Much appreciated in advance.

Cheers

180   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 5, 12:14am  

yodaking,

Trulia lets you search for foreclosures, but for more details on individual properties, you need to be a paid subscriber to RealyTrac.

PropertyShark may be better for you. They list a lot of details - even with free registration.

181   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 12:41am  

Patrick,

Weirdness in Atherton indeed! It's often been said to follow the money but what do you do when it leads you to a gas station?

This type of mortgage fraud is what's going to make "the recovery" so difficult. I highly doubt the person that pulled this off is even still in the U.S, let alone down at the Chevron station?

182   yodaking   2008 Mar 5, 1:40am  

StuckInBA: Thanks so much for the 411. I very much appreciate it

183   DennisN   2008 Mar 5, 1:49am  

It would be interesting to see if that funny Atherton fraud lead to Norman Hsu and fundraising for his "mama".

185   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:14am  

OK so Bill Gross is also asking for a bailout. Given James Carville's famous quote: "When I die I want to come back as the bond market. Because then you can intimidate everybody", what hope is left?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/03/05/11362/bill-gross-keeping-to-the-right-side-of-the-tracks/?source=rss

And can someone explain why Gross wants a bailout (he says PIMCO is doing fine!) - isn't the bond market doing fantastic now? What's he trying to do, pop his own bubble?

186   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:16am  

DennisN,

You mean "Run-around-Hsu"?

Well, if you're going to steal, steal BIG! I could barely follow Patrick's detective work on that one? The guy set up an LLC incorporated in Delaware? Of course that's not an issue for a toilet paper magnate!

Small wonder little if any of this will be investigated. Some institution loaned out millions on this and didn't bother to check the address was a gas station? When they said "why rob a bank when it's so easy to rob your house?" this guy took it to heart.

187   SP   2008 Mar 5, 2:18am  

DinOR Says:
This type of mortgage fraud is what’s going to make “the recovery” so difficult.

In a different context, someone had used the analogy of a frantic attempt to scoop sh*t up from the diaper and get it back into the baby... i.e. can't really be done and the end result is worse than the problem you tried to fix.

188   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:22am  

"get my tax money back" LOL!

BAI, I dunno' I've said Gross was a "real" idiot for years. He's fought 'marking to market' and prefers mark to myth! No, the bond market is not well. With the implosion of the insurers there's been a 15-20% hit in the muni's. Muni's for crissakes.

Don't you remember his famous comment to Bush? Taunting him to immediate "action" and calling him "The Decider"?

189   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:27am  

DinOR

Not being an expert I don't follow Gross so closely so i don't remember the taunt. I just had this impression of him and PIMCO as 'serious' characters - whatever that means these days. Now he seems to be acting like Cramer, screaming "they know nothing, they know nothing!"...wtf?

190   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Mar 5, 2:33am  

By the way BB is not suggesting the gov. make up the difference in the loan reductions between lender borrower (may I am as naive as I am idiotic). He's endorsing Summers' scheme to come up with some new instrument which will allow the bank to share in any upside, should prices go up in the future. So they write down now and then sell those instruments - maybe even securitize them? That must somehow mitigate losses right? Assuming they can pull this off, the gov. is in the meantime helping out by throwing money into the economy, in amounts suspiciously close to what the economy used to get from MEW.

191   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:35am  

BAI,

BG's monthly newsletter was littered with Arthurian and Greek Mythology references that I guess guys in the bond pit really didn't have the luxury of appreciating? He should have retired when PIMCO was still respectable.

Agreed, he's become just another Cramer and reminds of one of my father's favorite sayings: "It's easy to act classy (when you're always winning)" :)

192   OO   2008 Mar 5, 2:46am  

Isn't Maestro Greenspan working for Bill Gross right now?

193   DinOR   2008 Mar 5, 2:54am  

Yeah, I think I heard something to that effect. They belong together.

194   SP   2008 Mar 5, 2:59am  

BayAreaIdiot Says:
By the way BB is not suggesting the gov. make up the difference in the loan reductions between lender borrower (may I am as naive as I am idiotic).

Of course he is not going to come out and spell it out directly - it will be a complicated transfer of risk, through an alphabet soup of treasury-backed schemes - each of which will purport to serve a very honorable and politically popular purpose - but taken together they will form a conduit for neatly transferring risk to the taxpayer.

As a teenager, I once had the pleasure of having my pocket expertly picked in Naples (Italy, not FL) - didn't feel a thing. I think this will turn out the same way.

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