patrick.net

"All that really happened is that house prices fell"

Since a lot of us have been tracking/researching this for years we're starting to have a vested interest in Max Pyrotechnics. (Just like everyone in the Beltway is working on something that is "of the utmost importance for national security!")

Sure, this is important and unpleasant as it's been, I'd rather have seen it coming and stayed clear to the greatest degree possible than be blind-sided and behind the learning curve? Still that doesn't entitle me to assign whatever measure of apocalypse I see fit.

DinOR Says:
Challenge them. Why is this “my” problem? Explain in detail how this could (or should) affect me or people like me? How did things get to this point? Did “I” benefit from this fallout, whose pain we must now both share? Is it right that I should be affected?

You forgot the most important question: "If I help you now, what are you giving me in exchange?"

I don't mind a bailout where I get the FB's house at a 50% discount on outstanding loan balance. Bank hands over the $1M house, I give them 500K, and the FB gets to walk away. Now that is the sort of all-round deal I can get behind. Unlike some half-assed scheme where the house still costs $1M, the FB gets to keep his Excrelade and the bank gets bailed out with my tax money.

Since it's all a guess anyway I wont provide any proof. But my opinion is the same as Headset's. Cali will probably fare worse than Colorado or Texas but overall I see no depression happening. Of course everyone keeps saying the entire financial system is about to collapse but I'm not buying it, unless I see the GSEs dropping their lending standards to allow I/O, Ninja etc to refinance without at least 10% equity. If that happens, then I give up.

SP,

I mentioned that in one of the recent threads "WIF'M" (what's in it for ME!)

@netdance,

I never said that I/we cannot be affected by the bubble's macroeconomic fallout (see my 11:29 am post). I still maintain that the pain will be a lot more concentrated to the (guilty) financial & REIC sectors than many here seem to think *IF* Congress and the Fed just stop following the f**king Bailout Bandwagon.

The innocent will suffer along with the guilty to some extent --just as they always have. But in the end, the responsible and prudent should end up the better off for it.

640K jobs. Why does that remind me of a Microsoft product?

Add netdance to the chorus of the "Be careful what you wish for" crowd.

There is obviously a big logic problem with the argument "Be careful what you wish for".

As if what I wish matters ! This freaking bubble was going to explode no matter what I wished !

That has always been my response. It's pointless what I wish. I wish long healthy life and endless prosperity for everyone. But what I am pointing out is if you keep blowing all your money in smoking that pot, you are going to have neither healthy life nor prosperity.

It's not what I wish. It's what YOU are doing that is going to land us in a mess.

netdance Says:
Let me repeat that 640k jobs CEASED TO EXIST LAST MONTH. One month. Tell me again how it isn’t your problem?

First, I was not one of the 640K.

Second, that means 640K fewer people competing for a house, a parking space at the mall, table-reservation at Sakae Sushi, etc.

Third, it means 640K fewer households waving their Helocs and reducing the value of my cash offer.

Fourth, I work for a large company and could become one of next month's statistics, but I have no (net) debt and have the equivalent of several years of household expenses in savings (diversified).

Fifth, I own a house that - though small and low on bling - is entirely sufficient for my family's needs. No ARM, no Heloc, nothing.

So, why is a real-estate crash my problem?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/g/a/2008/03/07/carollloyd.DTL

Don't worry, the Bay Area is still special.

hey guys,

looks like PPT is at work again for the last half an hour.

How many more last half an hour episodes are we going to endure?

SP

So you better not hope for prices to crash because it means you could lose your job

LOL you speak truth, I think I've heard that also...too funny.

What's the old joke....

A recession is when you lose your job. A depression is when I lose MY job.

SP,

I could think of several ways of how it *might* affect you. But those would just be more conjecture.

I think the real disagreement btw the beware what you wish for crew and the SP crew is about what would be better in the long run.

Some people believe a collapse would be good long term for our country, some believe it will be disastorous.

In the end, I believe both sides would like things to end up for the best for everyone. If that is not the case, and you actually wish for for everyone else to eat it, so you can do better, then I would question your character.

DennisN Says:
A recession is when you lose your job. A depression is when I lose MY job.

Actually, even my losing my job in a depression would still be an improvement over a bailout that avoids the depression. That is how badly whacked out this is.

# FuzzyMath Says:
If that is not the case, and you actually wish for for everyone else to eat it, so you can do better, then I would question your character.

And if that is what you actually infer from what I wrote, I would suggest you go copulate with yourself.

Two previous best sellers:

"Great Depression of 1990" by Ravi Batra

"Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It" by Harry E. Figgie and Gerald J. Swanson

Both books preached an imminent doom caused by wreckless debt. Both books were convincing in their day. Both books were dead wrong.

OO :

I think we will see a big cut at the meeting, and even a "surprise" cut before the meeting if the markets continue to explode all around the world.

Problem is neither the cuts, nor the TAF is working. Heck, even those Ambac rumors are not working. How can we live in a world where rumors are no longer dependable ?

Time to hit the “reset” button?

This is a really interesting perspective. Do we really want to save the status quo? Are we ready to accept the pain suffering torture and death that would inevitably result in a transition to a new order?

That's always a conversation worth having, but what do we end up with on the other side? There are those that would argue a 90% decrease in homo sapiens on Earth would be a very good thing. For some, sure. Obviously not for all.

I'd also argue there is very little way to predict winners and losers in a financial meltdown endgame. Chances are the predators among us will again find themselves in positions of advantage. The realization of some justice through a "hands off" collaspe is an impossibility.

I don't know if I've really examined my own beliefs deep enough, but I think I'd rather see the system "saved" somehow. I care about total meltdown because I know that peace and stability brings greater contentment and happiness to a larger measure of humanity. In a total financial meltdown and collaspe, violence and suffering will occur on a grand scale.

You speak of revolution HARM, they are watching you closely! ;-)

BA is special. Yes.

Inventory based on ZipRealty :
Gilroy very close to 600.
Morgan Hill over 400.
Evergreen nearing 500.

Can someone please remind me that this will not have any effect on the Fortress ? At least please tell me that it will have *only some* effect. I love the reasoning. Please. Please say it again.

If that is not the case, and you actually wish for for everyone else to eat it, so you can do better, then I would question your character.

Yep, I want those who ran up prices by running up debts to pay the bill. I will see joy when a FB loses his $1 million home to forclosure, and a saver picks it up for the $450k it should have sold for in the first place.

Deflation is good for those with stable income, cash and no assets. Like myself (unless the state of California becomes insolvent).

The problem I see is the economic fallout of hundreds of thousands of unemployed debt-security brokers. These people were all making over 100k a year and essentially have no transferable skills. HR departments don't even want to hire them.

So yeah, even if you are the best small business man in the world, odds are lots of your customers were paying for your services with bubble money.

Headset,

.... not entirely. Harry Figgie (former CEO of Spaulding Sporting Goods) was on Reagan's "Grace Commission". While none of their rec's were actually followed, it did bring the deficit front and center making it a top priority for Clinton. So a 'cautionary tale'.

I'll be your Huckleberry..

Those stats will have no effect on Fortress because it is special (see chronicle for details or ask the nearest realtor - they'll be glad to enlighten you). In addition, people who buy in the fortress have millions in stock options which they exercise and buy in cash. They don't even need a mortgage most times. They just bulldoze the $1M shack and build a mansion for $2M. Then they go back to work for $300K/yr. People who buy in Gilroy etc are dyslexics and others with hard to pronounce names who have no idea what they're doing. We were bound to run out of them sooner or later.

northernvirginiarenter Says:
I don’t know if I’ve really examined my own beliefs deep enough, but I think I’d rather see the system “saved” somehow. I care about total meltdown because I know that peace and stability brings greater contentment and happiness to a larger measure of humanity.

Holy Krap - you are thinking way too deeply about this. A real estate crash with a side-order of credit-deflationary collapse is not the end of the world. Don't buy into the 'doom-and-gloomers' who insist that:
1. it will hurt you personally if Joe McDebtor gets into trouble
2. you are evil for not volunteering all your savings to help Joe

Examining your beliefs?! Good grief, relax!

Honestly what I fear in a fallout situation is escalating crime rate.

We are able to contain the crime rate in certain armpits and pockets of the more desirable areas (e.g. BA) because we have robbed enough of the world's resources to keep these people at home munching potatoes watching American Idol.

Now if some of those who were making $100Ks above worker bees who were living a self-disillusioned upper middle class lifestyle in decent neighbrohoods suddenly find themselves in the same shoes as those we were able to isolate in, well, East Palo Alto, then we have a very very big problem. As the bottom class of the society swells, I think we all have a good reason to fear.

This is not Japan, this is America. Bankrupt people don't kill themselves and their immediate families out of shame, we American heroes come out with a rifle to randomly whack people out. The pattern of mass murder is very distinctive here, the murderer will take out as many people as possible before he kills himself simply because he went through a divorce or lost a job. Well, it usually doesn't operate this way elsewhere in the world. People in Hong Kong or Japan just kill themselves, and I have no problem with absolutely no bailout in that sort of society.

am I making unpatriotic comment again? darn

SP,

I'm sorry? What were you saying? I was in deep meditation trying to get "in touch" with how I felt about all of this.

"dyslexics and others" LOL!

"This is a really interesting perspective. Do we really want to save the status quo? Are we ready to accept the pain suffering torture and death that would inevitably result in a transition to a new order?"

I'm not. Especially since I don't think it will do any good. The same behavior that might bring this empire down will just pop up again in the next one.

It would be pretty much pointless. Except housing will be cheaper in this new world.

it did bring the deficit front and center making it a top priority for Clinton.

I remember Clinton saying on a TV debate that he was unconcerned about a balanced budget. I believe he achieved a balance budget not because it was a priority, but as a result of his push through of NAFTA, GANTT, and tax revenue from the tech boom.

Oops, mispelled GATT

At least please tell me that it will have *only some* effect.
Didn't you get the memo on the CA court's "war on homeschoolers" -- everyone is fleeing to Crapertino :-)
Closed out my Wells short this morning (hopefully, if E*Trade comes through). Quite a rush to take on Buffet for the short haul.
Headset, always good to have someone waving the Deflationista flag around here.
TAF seems to be getting more coverage these days. Nice to see Bloomberg is reporting on the number of banks taking advantage of TAF (which has always been a question of mine):
Repos allow the central bank to inject funds into primary dealers, a group of 20 banks that trade securities directly with the New York Fed. By contrast, the TAF operations offer funds to deposit-taking institutions; the most recent auction included 72 banks.

@SP

So, why is a real-estate crash my problem?

Its not unreasonable to assume that violent crime will skyrocket. Very admirable and congratulations on your success and planning. In the serious downturn we are about to face, all bets are off. It matters to you because your daughter could be raped walking home from the market, your neighbors foreclosure turned into a violent crack house, your assets could inflate away to nothing, whatever "vehicle" your savings are in are not as safe as you may think. Civil liberties? Freedom? Good luck with that. You may not even have access to patrick anymore due to the spread of insidious ideas there.

Believe me, a housing crash matters to you. Its not really about a housing crash anymore, its about the destruction of trust in our financial system. It is a very big deal. And I'm sorry if you don't see it coming. Heck, if I'm really hungry and you look well fed and plump I might be coming in your backwindow for your cupboard myself :-)

The world in which we live is about to change radically. For instance, I understand financial assistance for higher education is becoming scarce, expensive, and more difficult to obtain. This is not isolated and I see no clear path back to where we were in this area. The world is changing. This is very serious and a very big deal.

kewp,

I agree, a lot of goods/services probably WERE being paid for w/ bubble-bucks. Then again, so many of their competitors wouldn't even BE around had it not been for the easy financing bubble-bucks offered?

Even among the realtors the common refrain was "You just wouldn't believe how many new agents there are!" In fact I believe that while NAR commissions peaked at around $60 bil. in 2005 (avg. realtor income went down)

Can someone get Ayn Rand to bake a damn pie already!

"A real estate crash with a side-order of credit-deflationary collapse is not the end of the world"

you keep saying that SP. Want to go into some of the reason why it's not? We've seen some pretty drastic results across the board just from the small contraction that's happened so far. Even conservative estimates don't even put us 1/4 of the way to where it's headed.

I'm not claiming I know. Just interested in the "it's not that bad" opinion, because I'm just not seeing it.

And NO, I do NOT want a f&$% bailout.

I was in deep meditation trying to get “in touch” with how I felt about all of this

lol. Well done.

Headset,

I'm sure Clinton probably didn't care? It was always fairly easy for him to simply say that Hawks ran up the defense bill and it wasn't his doing. (Others weren't ready to let the topic die that easily). One way or another we worked our way through it just like we'll work our way through this mess.

Back to meditation! Uhmmm.... Uhmmm..

BayAreaIdiot :

:-) OK. I understand about Gilroy. But wasn't Evergreen going to be the next Cupertino ? Are we still on that plan or has anything changed ?