patrick.net

My memory was incorrect.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/the_euro/the_euro6482_en.htm

It's Denmark, Sweden, and the UK who haven't adopted the Euro.

But French Guiana has!

I kinda don't want to actually discuss the positive effect of a weak dollar and the black market.

One of Patrick's posts today talks about DOW7,000 by years end.

Can this be backed up by numbers? Specifically, can somone use a little calculus on fractional banking system to project how many dollars must be destroyed today and at what current versus new leverage ratios to account for a halving of the capitalization of the DOW from peak?

Ah leverage, so good for amplifying gains, so bad for amplifying losses.

While it sems possible I jsut wanna see the math.

Blah blah blah.

My hard earned money and disciplined savings are worth a lot less. That matters a lot more to me.

"allowing drug dealers and smugglers to lighten their suitcases"

We'd hate to see anyone throw their back out humping their Big Fat Stacks of Cash around wouldn't we? I mean whether we're talking about legit businesses or the Black Market I'm all about being efficient!

Yeah, it's a minor miracle with all of the intelligence gathering satellites up there and all the people monitoring every imaginable activity that an under age kid can get away with having a wino buy beer for him? BUT.. we have all kinds of arms being shipped around the globe along with enough blow to sink a battleship yet it goes on largely undetected?

I could see in the 70's maybe even the 80's having "cowboys" move a ton of "product" without it showing up on radar but today!? We're kidding right?

My hard earned money and disciplined savings are worth a lot less.

Unless you are buying imports or planning foreign travel, you savings may do you well. Prices will fall, in my opinion, on houses (no real superlative wisdom there), stocks, and commodities. Wages will fall along with prices of American produced items. Executives will not be immune either, I believe that the "Tan Man's" troubles about his high pay are just a forshadowing. Since workers wages will fall, we will see support for heavy taxing of jackpot salaries. Also, note the following quotes from Real Estate Journal on lenders "blacklisting" areas:

"As property values decline and credit markets contract, home lenders nationwide are growing ever more unwilling to finance home purchases in sharply declining housing markets, driving prices down further. In some cases, lenders have ruled out entire geographic regions and property types altogether...."

"One silver lining: For "all-cash buyers," Mr. Zalewski says, the lists are "heaven sent."

"Buyers who have cash "can use that to negotiate," he says: "If you don't sell to us, who are you going to sell to?"

Specifically, can somone use a little calculus on fractional banking system to project how many dollars must be destroyed today and at what current versus new leverage ratios to account for a halving of the capitalization of the DOW from peak?

Psychology alone can drive the stock market to *any* level.

Not sure what Mr. Z means whe he says "the lists"? Lists of all cash buyers? Listings?

I'm sure by "property types" that would imply condos (and no one can blame you there!)

I'll just say I've had the same conversation at least 4 or 5 times last week. People that had not over-leveraged themselves, saved and lived modestly really feel like chumps of late. With all of the bail-out measures (along with the $'s implosion) feeling the part of a fool just seems natural.

Seems like the "little snag" that we have been expecting in the BAC-CFC merger might come soon. It's not just the SEC, but the FBI is also investigating the Tan-Man.

No one in bubble-blogging world believed that this merger was in the best interest of BAC. Conspiracy theories abound. They were pressured to buy it, they were promised "something" in return. My conspiracy theory was it was done to just stop the bleeding, with an expectation of a surprise snag that will derail the deal in the future.

It's all about giving the appearance of everything being OK. The Fed, Treasury clearly think that such pretending will prevent the panic. We will see.

He's talking about the list of properties that lenders won't write mortgages to. Only cash purchasers will be able to buy them.

I had a hell of a leverage over my FB seller here in Boise since I had cash and had therefore complete control over a closing schedule. I beat him down $10K.

Will MI and FL delegates be seated?

McCain is my favorite.
Obama is fine.
But if I have to bet money, I think Clinton will win.

Not sure what Mr. Z means whe he says “the lists”? Lists of all cash buyers? Listings?

Sorry, I should have added the link.
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20080306-wotapka.html?refresh=on&ref=patrick.net

What we need is for McCain to select Ron Paul for director of the IRS....

DinOR said:
BUT.. we have all kinds of arms being shipped around the globe along with enough blow to sink a battleship yet it goes on largely undetected?

I have a close friend who works for a European law-enforcement agency in the counter-trafficking side of the business. He doesn't talk much about his work but from what I gather, shipments of hash are "cleared" all the way to Amsterdam by the time brick gets loaded on to the first donkey-cart in Peshawar. They know exactly who will be on duty at the border-crossing or the port, and how much they "take" to look the other way and ensure smooth, well-greased transit.

No one in bubble-blogging world believed that this merger was in the best interest of BAC. Conspiracy theories abound. They were pressured to buy it, they were promised “something” in return. My conspiracy theory was it was done to just stop the bleeding, with an expectation of a surprise snag that will derail the deal in the future

I've always had the same "feeling" as well. Regardless of discount it seemed crazy to rush in and buy them - it's one more of those things that makes me feel like an idiot. (I normally consider those who 'believe' in such conspiracies idiots)

@ Peter P
sorry to get back on this question but it's a big one for me: why do you say Obama is fine? What do you know about him which you find reassuring? I don't mean "as opposed to X", I mean on his own.

StuckInBA said:
It’s not just the SEC, but the FBI is also investigating the Tan-Man.

Just heard a rumour that Sunkist will be going after him for trademark infringement too.

"the first donkey-cart in Peshawar"

Pretty much what I thought. That and the fact that much of the product moves along the same routes and we get token busts from time to time. Once in awhile we'll get a report of some submarine being built for contraband to show just how "ingenious" these guys are and what resources they have at their avail.

What a joke. If the U.S Navy "pinged" an unknown submersible vessel in open water and he doesn't respond correctly they'll go to full scale alert. Of course this leaves open the possibility/plausibility there may operational vessels out there. Oh give me a break.

Spitzer "resigned"? Weird huh?

DinOR Says:
Spitzer “resigned”?

Yeah, some news about being involved in a prostitution-ring (no, not NAR, but the old fashioned kind).

Just heard a rumour that Sunkist will be going after him for trademark infringement too.

lol SP!

by the way, does anyone have any idea why congrssman Issa is so adamantly defending the CEOs (esp. Mozilo) who were in front if his comittee yesterday? Isn't he independently wealthy? Why is he trying to stand in front of this tsunami?

I had always worried that mr.-anti-gun Spitzer would be Obama's pick for Veep. Won't happen now.

I can't imagine what could have unraveled in Elliot's life? He was like this modern day Ralph Nader and raised awareness about what was going on in the financial services arena. He could be a pain but his intentions were honorable.

Was the REIC Cartel his next target?

OT.

A few posts back FAB, HARM and I were talking about how much people in trades make. Yesterday I had a plumber over to change my water tank which is long overdue. The whole process took about 4 hours and his labor (with a Mexican sous-plumber) is $360 plus tip, which is about $400. I have to pay for the new water tank separately of course.

He told me he has about 3 jobs (some more complicated than other) a day, often busier on weekends, so he takes weekday off instead. Well, after splitting with the sous-plumber, he probably pockets $80/h a day, based on an 8-hour work day.

Now if he works on average 20 days a month, that is $12.8K income, and that makes his annual income well over $100K. Don't forget I pay him cash and he gets to write off lots of things from his "small business".

This guy definitely has a lot more job security that most of us.

That's why I don't quite believe the pay surveys on "sole proprietors" especially in these trades. Such a survey probably only reflects the reported after-cost "income" on tax forms.

OO,

I don't want to start a slam-fest but what most of these guys do is report only what looks feasible. If they have a ___ mortgage, they'll declare ___. Where they run into trouble is when they go to qual. for a loan. (Up until recently that wasn't even an issue)

OO,

I had dinner with my Mom the other night. It came up in conversation that she had called a plumber to get an estimate on having the bathroom faucets replaced. GET THIS. $1600.00 plus the cost of the fixtures. I told her that if she hired him, I'd have her committed. (joking of course) There's nothing special about the setups in her bathrooms. Easy stuff, two hours,tops, for all three. I told her to pick the models that she wanted and that I would pick up the fixtures and supply lines and install them next weekend. A lot of these guys see what they think is an easy kill and go for it. That crap makes me furious.

Richmond,

$1600 sounds ridiculous, that makes my $420 sound like a steal. Actually he was doing something that I couldn't have done myself because I don't have the welding tools. He also hauls back the old tank which is a big saver for me. I am very satisfied with his service.

I just want to illustrate a point to HARM that it doesn't take the top 10% plumber to earn $100K in the BA. I have also been slapped a minimum charge of $80 just for a plumber to come out.

Plumbers are actually very high on the job needs list for English speaking countries. If you are an experienced plumber especially with certification, you are very welcome in UK, Canada, Australia, etc for immigration, ranking way ahead of accountants, software engineers etc.

Perhaps the USA should have 500 and 1,000 dollar notes again to compete. Not sure if anything can halt the USD decline but why not take a shot. They should have the 10,000 note too just to be sure! Oh, these will all come in handy when doing some grocery shopping in the not too distant future.

Alright, OO, you have far more direct experience with construction/maintenance contractors here than I do. So, if you insist that all of the master plumbers in the BA make comfortable 6-figures, I'll concede the point (though I *still* highly doubt the undocumented "sous-plumbers" do nearly as well). And this puts plumbers on the list of highly compensated professionals --right up there with MDs, dentists, lawyers, MBAs, etc.

One thing for your wealthy plumber to keep in mind, though: high profits tend to attract lots of (cheaper) competition:
http://contractorservices.homedepot.com/

They should have the 10,000 note too just to be sure!

By then, USD is not worth a Continental. :)

yep

This one is for all the boomers and anti-boomers.

http://tinyurl.com/ys92fw

Aging Boomers could burst housing bubble
The common perception among economists is that the current housing bubble will be a relatively short-term affair that should see a return to normal within the next few years.

But according to a study by two University of Southern California researchers, a bubble of even more monumental proportions lies just ahead. They call it the "generational housing bubble," and maintain that it will be fueled by the same Baby Boomers who have been bidding up prices since 1970 as they moved higher and higher on the housing ladder.

Buy a home and sponsor a boomer's retirement.

Bap, I hope you'll win. :)

Stuck,
I even started a thread on that topic a while back. http://patrick.net/wp/?p=475 Although my thread had the added spice of the boomers facing higher capital gains taxes when the Dems take over so they would consider selling off even earlier than demographics alone would suggest.

Buy a home and sponsor a boomer’s retirement.

Thanks, the guy who bought my tiny SJ home helped me do just that.

I got mine. Screw everyone else. ;)

(Where's surfer-x when we need him the most?)

HARM Says:
March 10th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
"Alright, OO, you have far more direct experience with construction/maintenance contractors here than I do. So, if you insist that all of the master plumbers in the BA make comfortable 6-figures, I’ll concede the point (though I *still* highly doubt the undocumented “sous-plumbers” do nearly as well)."

Plumbers are a classic example of the bottom of the barrel people who no matter how much they make they will still be poor. I have no doubt that OO knows some plumbing contractors who make 6 figures. Normally they are the owner of a business who send out technicians who make about $25 per hour. An independent plumbing contractor can easily make 6 figures. By charging labor at $100 per hour with just a work truck as overhead, one can see how feasible it is.

My point with the plumber is not to illustrate how lucrative such a career is. I just want to provide a data point for FAB's claim that any hardworking person can make a very decent living no matter how "low" the profession is.

The plumber I used is a first generation Korean, barely speaks any English, but does very good quality work. He cleans up thoroughly after the job, and takes great care to situate the water tank properly. You can tell that he has good work ethics. I think he pays the "sous-plumber" quite well because I have seen disincented Latinos at construction site @$10/h doing very sloppy job, but this "sous-plumber" looks well trained and genuinely interested. I hope both of them make good money.

I didn't need to pay him cash, but I opted to, because that gives him more "options". When I go to a restaurant that serves great food at a decent price, I always pay cash, because I know it gives the owner more flexibility than CC charges.

I may not go that far, but at least I always tip in cash.

Spitzer, another wife in “Stand by Your Man” moment
Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:46pm EDT
By Claudia Parsons

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Pity the wife.

With her husband ensnared in a sex scandal, New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s wife is living through the worst nightmare for any political spouse — the “Stand By Your Man” moment.

Silda Wall Spitzer, the mother of the governor’s three daughters, stood by her husband’s side at a news conference on Monday where he admitted he had violated his obligations to his family and his “sense of right and wrong.”

The New York Times said Spitzer was caught on a federal wiretap arranging to meet a prostitute at a Washington hotel last month. He neither confirmed or denied the report.

Spitzer, who was a crusading attorney general before winning the governorship on a promise to clean up state politics, said he wanted to take time “to regain the trust of my family.”

Dina McGreevey, the ex-wife of former New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey who resigned in 2004 over a gay affair with a man whom he hired, said Spitzer should start by resigning.

Likening Silda Wall Spitzer’s experience to her own, Dina McGreevey told CNN the public exposure made an already difficult situation even tougher for the wife.

“She’s ridiculed and shamed in front of virtually the entire world,” McGreevey told CNN. “She’s not only dealing with her own personal pain but trying to protect her daughters from this.

“I thought that Governor Spitzer was going to announce his resignation today. By not doing so he’s only prolonging the pain and anguish and humiliation.”

The first lady of New York state, Silda Wall Spitzer has a law degree from Harvard and is chairwoman of a non-profit group called Children for Children.

At Monday’s news conference, she maintained her composure, looking a little dejected but stoic, as her husband spoke. The two held hands as they walked away from the podium after his statement.

CLINTON COMPARISON

Some were reminded of another political spouse who lived through such a moment — Hillary Clinton, a New York senator now seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.

Then-President Bill Clinton had a sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky, then 21, which led to his impeachment in 1998 after accusations he lied about it under oath.

Well before the Lewinsky affair, Clinton famously defended her husband in another scandal over reports of an affair.

In a January 1992 joint television interview with Clinton, she rejected a comparison with the “little woman” in the Tammy Wynette country song “Stand By Your Man.” She said she was with Clinton because she loved him and respected him.

Asked about the Spitzer case at a campaign event on Monday, Clinton said she had no comment “but I obviously am sending my best wishes and thoughts to the governor and to his family.”

Dina McGreevey urged people not to criticize Spitzer’s wife for her decision to stand by his side, saying she made a similar choice for the sake of her daughter.

“I was criticized for standing there. Hillary Clinton was criticized for standing there with her husband. We all do it for very personal reasons,” McGreevey said in the CNN interview.

“You don’t know what it’s like unless you’re in the person’s shoes.”

Helicopter Ben is out flying again today....

She looked heavily sedated (I'm not kidding) poor dear. Looks like some aide gave her something "to calm her nerves" and over did it. This is a godsend for the REIC.