patrick.net

TOB
your post of 9:27pm is totally nonsensical - either you're drunk or you need to go get some sleep.

Cyprus' problems have nothing to do with linear B and the origins of the greek language and of course none of it has anything at all to do with the origin of the word cretin. I should stress that there is NO propaganda campaign on the etymology of cretin either. I would know.

Agreed completely on Hersheys and ScharfenBerger.

On the issue of GSE conforming loans (the new kind) can any of our resident experts comment on the recently issued standards? What do they mean? Is it a relaxation of standards or just an increaase in the limits which will then be of little consequence?

TOB
you have no idea what you're talking about. There is no issue of "indigenous rights" in Cyprus. There is no confusion on the origin of Cypriots and no connection between that and theories of languages in the region which may have predated Homer's greek. There is no conspiracy to hide the connection of the word cretin to the IQ of Minoan (or was is Roman era) Cretans.

You should look up non sequitur too.

My opinion on the benifit of blogging:

Everyone should try to get your news from sources where they have the budget to do their homework. Hard numbers ARE important.

Blogs are great places for commentary.

The value in this blog is the sample-sized slice of society it provides.

We have a few subject matter experts that are quite helpful for framing an issue, then we have a large slice of good ol average folks who comment within that framework. Kinda like looking at the market, the numbers will take you so far, then the phychology takes you the rest of the way.

On a different topic: how much does federal economic cheerleading bother you? Bush will appear on tv today to say the economy is not in recession. Huh? Isn't that like when the Iraqi generals where giving a live interview saying they were beating the invading Americans and the tank rolled by in the background?

TOB

Look I'm gonna try one more time and that's it: you are trying to find connections between unconnected things. Neither greeks nor turks are semitic. Therefore even if anyone cared how greeks pre-homer wrote noone would be using it as an argument today vis-a-vis the "intercommunal problem". And nobody is. Unless they are a cretin.

in classical teaching, the word cretin derived from Crete, in a much similar way that lesbian derived from Lesbos.

Yes, Lesbian derives from lesbos although it was not used to mean gay until modern times. Cretin does not derive from Crete. Repeating it doesn't make it so. A person from Crete would be a Cretan today and Cretes/Cretekos in Greek. Grab a classical greek dictionary if you are truly interested and look it up.

On a different topic: how much does federal economic cheerleading bother you?

It doesn't really bother me because it seems that the more the Prez says that, the tougher it is for him to go along with any bailout. To the extent that anyone will ask him first of course if he's out there on record that there's no problem, maybe he can be a roadblock.

I guess a "European Bank" refused Bear Sterns counter-party on a transaction earlier this week and the stock is down hard just after the open. Can anyone add to that?

I finally have my counterargument.

1. S&P claims mark-to-market is done or nearly done. Total cost *in their estimate* is $285 billion.
2. Fed, through the TAF, has put out over $300 billion.
a. But, the TAF only accepted MBS at a fraction of face value so total liability to taxpayer is 'co9ntained'.

On the face of it, I have my answer. The Fed has deftly blunted the worst o the over-correction forestalling the margin call and the spiralling of margin of collateral and margin calls. Since banks have only 60 days at the TAF we we likely see more to come from the governemtn to permanently hold this collateral to prevent bank insolvencies, but it certainly seems the FED addressed the correct problem - the solvency crises.

Of course, their are ample opportunities for Doom and Gloom still, but at least we are seeing the counter-argument I was hoping for, even if it was not articulated.

Wow - my little screen here is not editing properly. Sorry for the unreadable goop above.

OO,

Frankly having to parse your words so carefully is why I keep attendance to said events to an absolute minimum. One needn't have eyes on the mayor's office for the most innocent of comments to backfire. Besides, it's exhausting isn't it?

"The Big Picture" had BS collapse as a rumor recently. Bloomberg is all over it calling it a bailout from Feds/JPMorgan. That is all.

Headset,

Thanks for the follow up. Remember, I used to work in a "boiler room" and I've seen a phrase, an anecdote, a snippet go from one end of the room to the other in about 90 seconds.

We can't for the most part control what we hear... but for the love of God verify what you've heard before you repeat it! No matter how juicy or impressive. (I though that much was just common sense?)

Denninger alluded to it yesterday (as it affects PD's) but didn't mention BSC specifically. More referenced to Carlyle.

Duke,

That was pretty much my take on it. Buying time and doing the damage control measures. I understand the Auction Rate failures will continue through the next qtr.

Looks like they are calling the demise of Bear Sterns.

So, Carlyle and Bear Sterns are allowed to die. I wonder who else gets chopped up in the de-leveraging world.

Down 50% ? Wow!

Hey, all you in the know. Is the Bear Stearns bailout one of those "rich helping their rich buddies" thing or could any of us count on this kind of "help"?

In spite of the once venerable Bear Sterns name they now have no more credibility than CountryWide?

Speaking of Countrywide. Is BofA now in serious risk of insolvency?

Good question. AFAIK, not in immediate peril. BofA (we're guessing) was forced into a shotgun wedding w/ CFC to salvage their book. BofA stopped doing subprime in 2001! Again we have no way of knowing but we can only surmise they were chosen b/c they had the least exposure.

Anyone?

Bear Stearns President and Chief Executive Alan Schwartz begged to differ with Wall Street. "There is absolutely no truth to the rumors of liquidity problems," he said, adding that Bear's "balance sheet, liquidity, and capital remain strong."

Wow. Is this kind of blatant lying to your investors not accountable?

Fuzzy,

It's code for: "GET THE F@CK OUT.... NOW!"

Maybe they should change the spelling to Bare Sterns.

Not to worry: according to Yahoo BSC has a one-year target estimate of 100.33. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BSC

Has anyone a link to a site where historical "one-year target estimates" are compared with real histories a year later? I've been looking at so-called "analyst estimates" for several years now and they appear to my novice view to be severely disconnected from reality.

Fuzzy
Wow. Is this kind of blatant lying to your investors not accountable?

Ken Lay tried it. Got him a heart attack. Although he was probably the exception.

In a speech to The Economic Club of New York, Bush said this was not the first time the economy has been rattled and he is cerrtain that it will ride out its troubles. "These are uncertain times," he said.

if it's an accurate quote, whoever is writing Bush's speeches is one confused individual.

The strange part to me is that it really doesn't serve any purpose. Unless the guy is buying time to unload his own shares.

I mean, he said that earlier this week. He knew the SWHTF soon. Why lie only to have the same result AND be deemed a liar? What a jerk off.

DennisN Says:

Maybe they should change the spelling to Bare Sterns.

That there is a masterpiece. :-)

"That there is a masterpiece"

http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/2222365.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1934A2752006EF5F0ED02DED7B58C37E3325A5397277B4DC33E

He knew the SWHTF soon
Maybe he did maybe he didn't. Many times it's reasonable to believe a show of confidence can avert disaster.

Sort of like Churchill when the chips were down....

We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender....

Well I wouldn't put anyone from Bare Sterns (tm) on the same level as Churchill, but otherwise the analogy is probably a good one. I guess the US was to the UK in WWII what the Fed and JPMorgan are to Bare today.

Warning : "TOOT MY HORN" post follows

On thread http://patrick.net/wp/?p=548 for "Predictions on what 2008 will bring?"

I said :

1. At least one major financial institution - here or abroad - that is too big to fail will *almost* fail.

Since I am being shameless anyway, here is another one ... Vallejo ...

6. May happen in 2008, but more likely in 2009 - at least one local CA government will go bankrupt.

Breaking News: Rating Agencies to meet to discuss ratings on Bare Stearns

Idiots

StuckinBA

nothing wrong with a little tooting. Although it would've been *real* impressive had you put a name on that prediction ;-)

For instance, while insisting his administration has an "active plan" to deal with the problems, Bush said he opposed several measures pending on Capitol Hill. They included proposals to allocate $400 billion to purchase abandoned and foreclosed homes, to change the bankruptcy code to allow judges to adjust mortgage rates, and to artificially prop up home prices.

Why is Bush is against these proposals??? We need a Democrat in office...

The Original Prankster

I repeat: check out a classical greek dictionary which predated the era of PCdom and you will find no etymological connection between crete and cretin.

Furthermore, Greek being or not being related to "semitic language" has no bearing on cretin being related to crete. Since you insist on conflating the two (among many other non sequiturs you keep bringing up), I have concluded that I can't help you.

Also I've never heard of greeks claiming they are the progenetors of all intelligence in the world but if they do, it sure seems you have some greek in you.

I am not of Cretan extraction. I am of cretin extraction.

Covert Nationalization. Liquidity destruction continuing everywhere. Capital flight out of USA and USD is accelerating and has passed point of no return, IMHO. As commerical and consumer debt cracks, none of the majors are going to come through this without outside gov't meddling.

Its about trust and confidence, and really nothing is being done to address the core problem. Wall street is no longer credible, the FED and US Gov't are no longer credible, the US consumer is no longer credible. Our financial system exists solely on the basis of trust. No trust equals no system.

I'm simply astounded that the leadership doesn't seem to get this. Emergency legislation should be pushed through that mandates actors to full transparency so we all know where contagion resides. The markets are not going to solve this problem if left to their own devices at this point in time.

We require courageous leadership and drastic measures now, and these are in disconcertingly short supply.

EBguy

Thanks brother, and back at you. :-)

Excellent comments and thread relative to blogging and readership, well done all. :-)