patrick.net

"I think MID will only get bigger"

OO, you may know PM/Forex inside out but you know absolutely nothing about..., ?

(Aw...you're probably right) :(

When the NAHB had their 10K CREDIT for buying a "new" home brain fart, Len Burnham of the Tax Policy Institute (that DennisN references above) was beside himself with disgust. He said, "How is it possible to extend an even more generous tax code to real estate than we already HAVE!"

I guess I can buy the argument that encouraging a home ownership society is stabilizing. Ummmm. When homes prices go negative on a national basis, I cannot imagine a more destabilizing problem. Perceptions of unfairness are everywhere rright now.
My current perspective is one of the tax base meeting society needs. Notably, the infrastructure of CA is deteriorating. While it does not get much press now, our levies are a disaster. Our roads are poor, our schools are underfunded, the police to resident ratio are at historic lows. Our legal system is so back-logged we now try to solve everything in arbitration.
For me, these are the biggies a society must undertake: education, security, legal recourse, public health, and infrastrucure. Since we are not providing these at acceptable levels, we need to consider, as a state, if giving big mortgage breaks is something we want to do. A great deal of revenue is lost to the MID. Of course, I will fully agree with anyone who points out that we must remove most, if not all, state spending outside these categories.

Off topic, but very important.

If what's reported on here is true

www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html

then this is the most important economic story of the decade.

Duke,

What's worse is that NAR has brain-washed every new Realtor (TM) to "tell the tax advantages story".

Well... like that hasn't been factored INTO the asking price of the home!?

Oh man, you guys will love this. I was watching "Unnatural Causes: Is Inequality Making Us Sick?" on PBS last night. So, I kid you not, some doctors did a study where they infected subjects with a cold virus. The longer the subject's parent was a homeowner, the less likely it was for the subject to become sick. If that isn't a ringing endorsement of home ownership, I don't know what is! :-)

RE: “Unnatural Causes: Is Inequality Making Us Sick?”

No, but unhappiness can certainly make us sick.

Is it just me, but I think PBS programs tend to be extremely liberal.

Again, this shows my point, that one can use "science" to support any agenda.

If "equality" really means what it is, I wonder how many US liberals are willing to drastically lower their stand of living so that the third world can have their "rightful" share.

Of course not. Equality generally means that no one is allowed to be richer than me.

Argh!

In regards to my Bakken Formation post several up....

Does anyone have any suggestions for North Dakota REITs? :)

Here is a list:

http://www.inrealty.com/restocks/ligert.html

I don't see anything for ND and SD though.

Rice went up 30% in a day
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/425a0e2e-fc6a-11dc-9229-000077b07658.html

I have long seen this coming but couldn't get a focused exposure to rice price. RJA is the best I can do which includes rice, but the component is too small to make a difference.

The rise in food commodity price is just the beginning. I hope there will be a rice ETF soon. Quite a few Asian countries are running out of rice inventory, China has exhausted almost all of its backup rice storage in the last 3 years. A further 100% hike from the current level is not unreasonable to expect.

The fact is, the $100+ oil has not seen its ripple effect in agriculture fully illustrated yet. Farmers, particularly those from developing countries, are squeezed by the soaring fertilizer price which is 90% driven by natural gas, so most of them CUT BACK their production instead of ramping up. They only grow enough for themselves to eat. The reason for the cutback is because the food commodity price in these developing countries are heavily controlled by the government so that everyone can afford some food. When you have an input price that is soaring and not controllable by the government, and output price that is subject to heavy government control, the result is even lower agriculture inventory and even higher food price.

This is only the beginning.

But how do we survive trading leveraged positions in commodities?

soaring fertilizer price

Potash?

I think CBOT has a rough rice contract. Is that what you want? It does not look super-liquid though.

I don't do futures, because I am not good at timing. If I identify a trend, I just want to buy and hold.

Soaring fertilizer price may not help the fertilizer company. Like I said before, the farmers just cut back and grow less food.

Soaring fertilizer price may not help the fertilizer company. Like I said before, the farmers just cut back and grow less food.

Have you seen the price of Potash (POT)? It is going up like a homesick angel.

It is possible to buy and hold futures. In fact, this is what many DB funds are doing? Leverage kills, but it is possible to have unleveraged position with enough T-bills in your account.

Not investment advice. Futures trading involves *great risks*.

Rogers is right on this one, this food trend won't benefit the fertilizers, won't benefit the farmers. It benefits only one thing - the price of the end product. And as more speculators get into the market, food hoarding will become very prevalent which will further escalate the situation.

I definitely don't want to be living in these countries during such a turmoil. I guess that's why Rogers chose to live in Singapore but not Shanghai. You can't take advantage of such a situation by putting your life on the line.

POT is already very frothy. There's a lot of expectation built in, they are not in hi-tech and with that kind of P/E, one mediocre quarter can send them right back to earth.

I prefer to bet on the end price, because farmers can choose not to use any fertilizers, but we cannot choose to not to eat.

As I have said, Nature is ways to deal with overpopulation. People are liabilities.

POT is already very frothy.

Agreed. I have no position in that stock.

I prefer to bet on the end price, because farmers can choose not to use any fertilizers, but we cannot choose to not to eat.

Fertilizers are the food of our food though...

There seems to be a bubble in the number of ETFs though...

There are huge pile of cow "stuff" all over the Boise valley. How in the heck can fertilizer be priced so high right now?

Peter

Have you ever spent any time in the 3rd world?

Have you ever given any money to someone begging in the street?

Simply curious.

I have donated to some breast cancer foundation and some tsunami relieve efforts.

I might have given money to beggars when I was small. Now I make a conscious effort not to pay them. I am not against charities who reach out for the homeless though.

Dennis-

Official stated oil reserves are a less reliable number than US inflation numbers. Folks have been talking about major unproven fields for many many years, every other month you can find a new one. Be very very skeptical.

For my money, that report is utter nonsense.

On another topic, any thoughts relative to the illegal US income tax movement ala Wesley Snipes and that crazy tax protesting couple up in the backwoods of New England?

I think charities should focus on education and medicine.

Feeding the hungry will only prolong pain and suffering.

Off topic apologies, here is a new one.

Fairfax county Virginia, a Washington dc suburb and one of the wealthiest in the country, is intending on massively purchasing foreclosures directly. (now our local governments are going to be catching falling knives).

About 25% of firefighters, police, teachers etal currently employed by the county actually reside there. The operating assumption being the common story of lower paid professions being "forced" to outlying sprawl. Obviously a great trend for the builders, developers, and Mobil Exxon. Not so great for the supposedly underprivileged public servants.

So Fairfax county endeavors to "kill two birds" through mass purchase of 'discounted' foreclosures, subsequently offering this stock to this select group on subsidized basis.

US has a much better chance counting on agricultural export to tie us over than counting on finding another big pile of oil reserve. The chance of the latter is next to 0.

US is the largest food exporter of the world with the most arable land per capita. Food shortage in the world is definitely a good news for us because that means for once our farm subsidy will pay off handsomely.

I am a strong supporter of farm subsidy no matter how much it costs. Food security is just as important as maintaining a military superiority, without both we are just another Argentina.

oo

I find that rice post of yours immensely disconcerting.

Food shortages equal political instability, mass migration, and more war.

Many argue we have already entered the century of resource wars, of which our Iraqi adventure marks the opening salvo.

Poor Africa.

I'm not sure if you simply manage your own funds or also those of others, but I'm continually impressed with the depth of your knowledge in such things. Apologies if its inappropriate to ask and feel free not to answer, but what do your avg annual returns look like? I'm prepared to be a very jealous bitter investor on your report.

Where does Fairfax county come up with such a massive amount of money to buy up foreclosure properties?

Peter

Would you argue that modern medicine is in fact often counterproductive, that disease should be allowed to spread maintaining population control?

In your view, has our medical and biological science corrupted the natural order of things? Would we be better off with black plagues and rampant aids, malarial population culling of the weak, old, and unlucky sobs?

NVR,

I just manage my own funds, I grew up and worked in different parts of the world, which gave me a perspective a bit different from home-grown Americans.

Thanks for your compliment but I am really a peon individual investor. My return is consistently in the double digits because I am very conservative. During the down years I am able to stay above water but during the good years I make less than sector average. I invest my hard-earned money, and I don't have any expensive hobbies, so I don't need lots of investment return to feel happy.

Whether you like it or not, we are entering a phase of instability around the world. But as the history of human beings has proven, resets and turmoils still happen, yet with an increasingly milder impact on our lives. In the 16th century, such an economic reset meant massive-scale famine and war and cannibalism, while in the last century, such reset meant a world war that wiped out a much smaller portion of the human population than before. I think the reset this time will definitely be even milder. Of course there will be hardship, but in the grand scheme of things, we are already doing so much better than our ancestors.

BTW, I think it is a worthwhile bet to start accumulating Yen now.

Japan's rice (main staple) is heavily reliant on imports. Oil and rice combined will make it extremely difficult for the Japanese to keep cutting interest rate to peg their Yen to us.

Once the Yen breaks the peg, it can easily blow through the 80s as all the carry-trade funds come home to roost.

Where does Fairfax county come up with such a massive amount of money to buy up foreclosure properties?

I'm certain the first thought of county Finance Director was to create some securities with the housing as collateral, I suspect the banksters cabaling in his circle quickly straightened him out. :-)

The chair of county sups is primary proponent, he usually gets his way. Council is debating proposal even as I write this. Lots of quotes from local FB's, complaining about the upkeep of the empty properties affecting their "values".

Real estate personal property tax increase? That would be perfect.

In his annual State of the County address, the Democratic chairman and 11th District congressional candidate will announce he wants to explore the use of some of the $23 million affordable housing fund to reverse the damage foreclosures have dealt to neighborhoods, and at the same time allow more families to afford to live in the county.
But since Fairfax was struck by a rash of foreclosures amid a nationwide crash in the subprime mortgage market, the chairman is banking on the county being able to scoop up the empty houses at a far lower cost.

Fairfax County saw 4,527 foreclosures in 2007 compared with 347 a year before, and is on track to see more this year, according to forecasts.

“Clearly, taking a home out of foreclosure would help restore stability to a neighborhood and restore confidence in the local real estate market.

It also would allow the county to open these homes to working families for purchase at an affordable rate,” Connolly is slated to say in his speech.

“Work force housing is in great demand but short in supply.”

The Fairfax County USD amounts are not meaningful at this point, but it merits a REDFLAG. This is another taxpayer loss conduit, potentially coming to a theatre near you.

OO,

Thanks as always for the excellent insight. What DennisN said one day has remained etched in my thoughts. "We are the Saudi Arabia of food".

I am looking at RJN, MOO thanks to you and DinOR. But it's much harder to make money on this theme.

Japan’s rice (main staple) is heavily reliant on imports. Oil and rice combined will make it extremely difficult for the Japanese to keep cutting interest rate to peg their Yen to us.

Good point.

Now we just need to find a good instrument for investing in rice.

Would you argue that modern medicine is in fact often counterproductive, that disease should be allowed to spread maintaining population control?

Not if medicine is market-driven. Companies should be free to provide medical solutions for profits. Naturally, this will happen.

I am not against universal health care if a society can afford such a luxury.

I am a strong supporter of farm subsidy no matter how much it costs. Food security is just as important as maintaining a military superiority, without both we are just another Argentina.

I am beginning to agree with you. However, the needs to be incentives for farmers to improve efficiency and lower costs.

Oh my, here it is.....the mother of all bailouts. Prepare to be annoyed.

The Bush Whitehouse mortgage bailout plan, fresh off the presses, courtesy of the Washington Post

http://tinyurl.com/ypo6rc

Soylent Green is people.

But wouldn't the farmers be better served by paving over their black farming soil and filling the land with McStucco brand shitboxes? I mean what's growing food when you can grow wealth? With money can't you just buy the food?

ahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha

amazing how quickly the fecal matter has hit the cooling device.