patrick.net

Bubbles are not avoidable in any capital market driven by people. We just have to live with them.

Market interventions do tend to exacerbate asset bubbles because regulations are themselves reflexive.

The Japanese were not ranking the life of its citizens, it is ranking the usefulness of its citizens in a combat situation, particularly those who carried the hope of the country.

If it didn't preserve so many science and engineering students during the war, it most certainly wouldn't be able to rebuild its industrial might quickly after the war, and re-emerged as the second biggest economy.

Back to our OPT and H1B issue. Every single science and engineering talent from foreign country that we can keep, is a loss to their home country, so it is a 0-sum game that we must win. I think it is a good process of giving all of these students OPT of a certain period. If they are good enough, they will be kept by their employer, who would then file for H1B and GC petition for them. If they are not good enough, let them go. That is letting the market decide.

That aside I don’t believe any engineer’s life is more valuable than mine or anyone else’s for that matter. If you love your country, here’s your shovel and here’s your rifle.

That's typically/traditionally what most societies believe (or so I thought). That's why I was so surprised that the japanese would think/act otherwise.

Anyway I'm sure they had some engineers in battle. It just seems (from what OO is saying) that they made an effort not to "waste" their brainiacs as cannon fodder.

Market interventions do tend to exacerbate asset bubbles because regulations are themselves reflexive.

Perhaps. But to this idiot it seems highly suspicious that there is a conicidence of market intervention - in the sense of lifting regulations - and bubbles. You never hear of a bubble because of too much regulation. At least not in anything as "boring" an asset class as the US *national* housing market should be.

Every single science and engineering talent from foreign country that we can keep, is a loss to their home country, so it is a 0-sum game that we must win.

The same is true for all kinds of talent. Engineering is great but it is meaningless in a vacuum.

A great salesman can make a fortune selling crap. Engineering masterpieces ain't worth nothing without the market.

The preservation of science and engineering students is not unique to Japanese, it is the same with Chinese. During WWII, all the science and engineering college students were rounded up, sent to the inland and NOT drafted at all. A Nobel laureate in Physics, CN Yang, was a product of this era.

On the other hand, liberal arts students were encouraged to go to the war, or more actively participate in the war. Chinese students in college were in fact discouraged from studying subjects other than science and engineering because that was seen as useless for serving one's country. Such a tradition continued all the way into the 80s, until they started to figure out finance could make more money.

"the hope of the country" IS... the guy in the trenches!

"rebuild it's industrial might" (you mean that "we" rebuilt?) You mean the rebuilding effort that should have went into the Philippines (our allies) instead? I guess I'll never understand that part?

You never hear of a bubble because of too much regulation.

Tax incentives... artificially low interest rates... FHA... should I continue?

The hope of a country is FAITH.

Sorry, I just think science and engineering are over-rated. We need more right-brain talents.

Peter P

tax incentives and FHA were there before but didn't cause a national bubble.

Artificially low interest rates are artificial only in the eye of the beholder. And they didn't cause the bubble. Lack of enforcement of sensible regulation did. Regulation that existed before and will exist again in the future. Low rates are just extra fuel.

FAITH

is this an acronym?

Lack of enforcement of sensible regulation did.

This is like saying gun confiscation is the only way to prevent crime.

It is *a* way (not the only way) to prevent a certain type of crime. However, there's something in the constitution about it. Nothing there about flipping, I/Os, ARMs. $0 down, securitization of loans masquarading as AAA (there's your free market for you!) etc etc etc

It is *a* way (not the only way) to prevent a certain type of crime.

That way is as effective as outlawing crime.

Before the late 1960's, as far as I know, there were no quotas for highly educated immigrants, at least on any meaningful scale. Yet our country did fine and in fact thrived with masses of the "uneducated" and "lower class" immigrants that came - Eastern Europeans, Irish, etc etc.

Why is it that different today? I know I know, today's economy is based on "high tech." But, do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

That's lame.

But, do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

Well, the education system outlawed faith. Enough said.

That way is as effective as outlawing crime

If so then maybe we should consider that path. Over the centuries crime has been outlawed by most and it seems to have worked rather well. When the laws and regulations are intelligent and intelligently enforced that is. ANything can be taken to extremes.

The fact is, we are not generating enough of these "well-educated" people in subjects we need.

If there were enough home-grown Americans who were studying science and engineering at college and graduate school level to begin with, our schools wouldn't have been admitting that many international students *on scholarship*, and our employers wouldn't have had enough clout to lobby for H1Bs.

Home grown Americans are more interested in instant profit, so we have more-than-adequate supply of MBAs and JDs. That's also precisely why you seldom see any foreigner studying at business school or law school on scholarship. Even there are, most of the foreign MBAs and JDs have to head home right after they finish their studies because given the fierce competition from domestic graduates, they cannot find a job here!

JDs are locked up due to the ingenious design flaw of that degree. It is US law. No good if you want to practice in India!

I think foreign MBAs exist but since it is a degree for your late 20s to late 30s, it doesn't have the same dynamics as a EE or CS degree, which are aimed at 18-20 yr olds.

Very low proportion of foreign MBAs stay here, mainly because they cannot fight the domestic competition. If the domestic competition is just as fierce in MS and PhD degrees, there won't be lots of staying foreign students either.

MBA classes targeting foreign students is actually a major revenue source for second tier universities. There are certain business schools (2nd tier or below) where over half the class are full-tuition paying foreign students who have little hope of ever finding a job here.

Actually most foreign law students don't come here to do JD. Foreign school system has undergraduate law degree. They come here to do LLM (master of law, which is odd after you are a JD), which is only one year. The hope is they can invest the least amount of time and money, finish the LLM, pass the bar, and find a job to practice in the US.

Not so lucky. Even the top LLM classes in the US have over 1/3 foreign students with such false hope. It is extremely rare for a foreign LLM to find a JD-equivalent job in the US.

Setting up entrance barrier for labor is NOT a good way to keep jobs here.

There is no way to stop the global wage arbitrage.

The Manhatten Project guys didn't get drafted: neither did the Rad Lab guys who perfected RADAR. Entire sets of math grad students were bundled off to perform the decription efforts of ULTRA in the UK and MAGIC in the US.

Actually the California Bar will admit to take the bar exam students who have "graduated from a law school in a country whose law is based upon English Common Law". And there is reciprocity with at least the UK. A friend of mine, born in Ireland, got a US JD and passed the CA bar. A few years ago she decided to go back home and got admitted in Ireland.

To practice in Ireland, you have to pass the bar exam in ENGLAND. I bet that sticks in Irish craws. ;)

Lawyers love the English Common Law, don't they. ;)

Peter P Says:
April 8th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
"Setting up entrance barrier for labor is NOT a good way to keep jobs here.
There is no way to stop the global wage arbitrage."

Sure there is, import tarrifs. AND, they should also be applied to American goods coming in from overseas, none of this "It's an American product made in China" nonsense.
I believe in NAFTA, but on a personal level, like Mexicans coming over here to buy things or us going over there. We shouldn't have to be hassled on a reasonable amount of goods unless they are for resale.

Sure there is, import tarrifs. AND, they should also be applied to American goods coming in from overseas, none of this “It’s an American product made in China” nonsense.

American consumers will simply move overseas.

I believe glass blowers were not conscripted in Britain - my grandfather was needed to blow glass for delicate equipment and bombs.

I think given the surge in energy price which is very likely to stick for another decade or so, NAFTA will make more sense than global trade, and that is going to be the trend.

Let's face it, there is no way you can block illegal immigrants from Mexico, it ain't gonna happen until our economic status and theirs start to reach a comparable level. Either we become poorer or they become richer, life finds a way, particularly for lives just across the border.

I really have nothing against Latinos. I prefer them to many domestic trash of different colors who are obese, stupid, lazy yet violent, and worst of all, they make themselves sound like victims. Latinos are generally happy people who work hard. I have a tremendous respect for anyone who is willing to work hard.

Call ourselves lucky. At least the Latinos speak Spanish (which is fairly easy for English speakers to pick up), have good work ethics, have good food, and have embraced the Anglo-Saxon culture. Well, imagine if we were bordering Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, etc... things could have been a lot worse.

DinOR Says:
What is UP w/ the IMF? Why aren’t they in their usual nod-off mode?

Now that we have a third-world currency, a second rate leadership and a first rate crisis - I guess the IMF felt we qualified for their ministrations. :-)

test -- I'm having trouble posting.

OO Says:
The Japanese were not ranking the life of its citizens, it is ranking the usefulness of its citizens in a combat situation, particularly those who carried the hope of the country.

The approach is not surprising, although some of the shock-element in because in normal, polite society, we like to pretend that everyone is 'special'.

I see a lot of parallels in the way layoffs are planned when a biggish company is in trouble. First to be let go are incompetents and 'overhead' jobs like "process synergy analysts". Last to be cut are the best sales and engineering talent.

skibum Says:
do we really have so little faith in our home-grown education system that we have to import educated workers?

A couple of years ago, I volunteered at a school to coach kids in math. I encountered an entire class of eighth graders who were unsound on the concept of fractions. Nothing fancy, basic fractions. You do the math (no pun intended).

We do turn out a lot of smart, well-trained kids - and no doubt there is a *huge* number of poorly-prepared grads (who all THINK they are entitled to a well-paying job), but my guess is that the number of adequately trained graduates is not large enough to competently fill the available jobs in an economy as large as this.

The question, IMHO is - do we fix the symptom by importing better educated talent, or do we really fix the system to produce a larger volume of properly educated american kids?

[Hideously Old Topic, but I was unable to post earlier because of technical difficulties]

FAB,

I donN"t understand why a gold digger can marry a guy for a few years and after to agreeing to stay with him N4until death do us partN! break the contract (to move in with her personal trainer) and take half the guys assets…

It is because the men of the US (and California in particular) are completely asleep at the wheel when it comes to paying attention to family law and the implications of changes in same laws. No-fault divorce is a prime example.

Men in the US are so caught up in the treadmill of success (aka. competing like crazy against their brethren for the honor of banging one supermodel before they die) that they completely forget to pay attention to what is happening to their rights in society as a whole.

Here's the big question: Do you think that either the democrats or the republicans are going to make family law and marriage contracts more equitable?

I see a lot of parallels in the way layoffs are planned when a biggish company is in trouble. First to be let go are incompetents and ‘overhead’ jobs like “process synergy analysts”. Last to be cut are the best sales and engineering talent.

Is that your wishful thinking? :) Which planet are you from?

Last to be cut are people with the best political skills. Good engineers are expensive on paper and they are the first to go.

I encountered an entire class of eighth graders who were unsound on the concept of fractions.

Let's blame NYSE decimalization. :)

SP

I don't have a dog in this fight as I have no children, but certainly over the past 40 years the respect with which teachers are treated and the appartent quality of teachers has been on a downward tragectory.

I know that there are a lot of problems with the public schools in 'Murka, but do you think that a big part of it is that dedicated, but no longer top tier, individuals enter the teaching profession?

After all, if money is the barometer of respectability, and we pay teachers less than (or little more) prison guards, should we expect the "best and brightest" to enter the profession?

I don't think that the answer is simply more $$$ -- after decades of maligning teachers as marginally competent and ingraining the general meme that the only people who teach (as a career) only do so because they are incapable of anything else, are we simply reaping what we have sown?

Either that, or merkin kids are substantially dumber than they were a generation ago.

OT: There's another $600K tax money going to the drain. This Olympic torch thingy is getting more and more violent at each stop, it's going to pass through SF tomorrow and for that little stretch, we need to allocate 500 policemen to the stupid event. Chinese consulate is rallying mainland Chinese in the Bay Area to "protect the torch" (heard they paid 500 Euro pp for Paris), and the Free-Tibet hippies are also planning a big show down.

Amidst a serious economic slowdown and a very "unbalanced" local budget, the last thing SF needs is a stupid confrontation by two parties that we don't really care for. For all that $600K we need to spend, I am now hoping there will at least be some fantastic kungfu street fights for show.

600K??? WTF?