patrick.net

It is beneficial to bring back the moral compass. Let's start by restricting no-fault divorces.

Enforcing private contracts *IS* the government's responsibility.

OO, I totally agree with you which is why I am confused about me ever saying they did anything right. Perhaps you are reading where I wrote it was unfortunate and interpreted it to mean that I am a fan. What I meant, and is clear in the overall context, is that it is unfortunate that it is the foreign car makers who have provided the solutions. I'm not anti American which is the only reason I think it is a shame. I am actually happy to see these small American startups springing up. I think it is going to be a good thing.
I am of course well aware of the EV1, ironically as I was driving in after posting earlier, I was thinking about the stories of people being forced to give their EV1s back under protest. How that wasn't a sign of market sentiment is beyond me. Even that very limited experiment generated large fanfare.

TOB, I guess Eve got them off to a bad start. :)

I guess there are many angles but for some reason modern day professional women seem to have a need to show that they can be just as sleezy as their boomer male role models.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
"Malcolm,
Do you know anything about these electric cycles?"

I got sidetracked and didn't mean to not reply. I don't know much about them. During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I'm the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.

Malcom,

I must have scanned through the posts in a hurry, sorry for the friendly fire.

I am glad that we are on the same page :-)

I like diesel mostly because:

1) it is not as flammable as gas
2) diesel engines have tons of torque

I like heavy cars. MPG is not as important. Let the market decide! :)

I'd like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle's weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges. I'd like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle's size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That'll be fair. And then let the market decide.

TOB,

Sorry, I totally missed your joke.

Bap33,

Just a quick one, maybe I will find the energy for more later:

1. I'm sure you agree that bad FM/Ford/Chrysler built-in-a-hurry technology from the 70s does not invalidate new 2009 technology. They were late to the party then just as they are now. Let us hope they do not repeat their mistakes, but instead do some good engineering,

2. Yeah, the reality of high energy costs will catch up with anyone. And even the US automakers will maybe eventually do the right thing. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan have been on the right track for many years already.

3. Power/Weight is a completely different metric than Energy/Distance (MPG). Race cars have great Power/Weight and lousy MPG, at ANY speed.

4. It sounds like you think that an engine can be built for (and more importantly SIZED for ) performance, and at the same time provide economy (=energy efficiency in my terminology) simply by driving it "nicely". I think this is not the case. The closest thing we have is a clean Turbodiesel. But is not sized foer a crazy V12 racecar with insane performance. It just has plenty of oomph for daily use.

I’d like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle’s weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges.

I agree. It should also be calculated based on vehicle speed for similar reasons.

I’d like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle’s size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That’ll be fair. And then let the market decide.

With toll roads and streets everywhere, we do not need the registration fee anymore. We do need to charge a pollution cleanup fee.

BAP, no one disagrees with your history lesson. This time it is different and the market has already decided. People are literally approaching Prius owners at gas stations offering to buy their cars from them because they don't want to wait. There is no subsidy in doing that, nor was there one for leasing one.

The home recharging model does make sense, and comparing reluctant manufactures of the past with market innovators of the present seems flawed to me. I have a strong feeling that our society does remember the days you are talking about. I believe government and industry are taking those lessons learned and realizing that this time it is not just an OPEC created embargo driving up prices. It is much more complicated. It involves everything from increased global demand, to remaining competitive because other countries have freed themselves by going to renewables. I guarantee if we had to do it all from scratch knowing what we know now, the conventional technologies wouldn't pencil out. I find it ironic that we have to defend incentivizing renewables when oil companies receive all sorts of subsidies and shelters, and hey what about the "gas tax holiday?" That sounds like government actually subsidizing our current habbits. Renewables now make sense, there's no way to argue against it.

The home recharging model does make sense, and comparing reluctant manufactures of the past with market innovators of the present seems flawed to me.

I would agree if retail electricity prices are unregulated.

I voted for that, turned out the free market wasn't the best way to run electric providers. I still don't know what went wrong with that. BTW, if SDG&E had its way there would be no net metering for solar. Doing the right thing sometimes does require government intervention, like mandating a PUBLIC utility get a percentage of its production from renewables, otherwise the free market just forces the same old thing until you end up with a crisis or a situation where only the wealthy can drive, or have electric power, or worse yet, those who are powerless get to have the waste from those who have dumped on them.

Yeah, I'm just not as pure of a free market type as our old friend Peter P.

During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I’m the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.

I've never ridden a serious motorcycle, and I'm not about to start today. I thought they looked like pretty impressive machines for around $10K, though.

I'm more likely to buy an electric bicycle, or conversion kit. I commute by bicycle a bit today, about half of the time when the weather's nice enough. If I had electric assist I'd probably bike to more places, and in somewhat warmer weather (I'm in Phoenix).

Thanks,

STCM

otherwise the free market just forces the same old thing

If we charge polluters a cleanup fee, the situation will be different.

So the Fed decided to keep things the way they are, but just TALK about a stronger dollar and how bad inflation is getting.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/fed_interest_rates;_ylt=AgAek2VFxIVfUQFCh04SyMes0NUE

Bernanke, in a rare public utterance for a Fed chief, also has sounded a warning that the slide in the U.S. dollar could contribute to a rise in inflation. He has sought to use words — instead of action — to bolster the dollar and try to lessen inflation pressures.

No Heller today. Crap.....

OO,

Your posts relative to the machinations of the power structure are exactly correct. I stopped being amazed at the state of complete "unawareness" of the majority of the US populace, even among my educated graduate degree crowd.

Folks simply don't understand that the moneyed interests have created a virtual monopoly of profits across critical major industries including notably chemical, steel, oil, and auto.

This cabal has created a regulatory regime which creates significant barriers to entry for competition, stifles innovation, and destroys the commons.

Even this hybrid crap is nonsense.

There is absolutely zero technological reason why we all should not be driving cars that weigh less than 200 lbs, getting the equivalent of 200 miles to the oil gallon, while providing better safety. The materials engineering science has been suitably advanced for some time.

Tragic and despicable.

Of course, what industries would not exist under this scenario?

HIGH AND RISING world oil and food prices, the implosion of the US housing bubble and the ensuing consumer credit vapour lock have cash-strapped US consumers staying out of retail stores in droves, and this is forcing dozens of US retailers to close hundreds of stores.

Information technology related companies that are closing stores include CompUSA going out of business, Sprint Nextel closing 125 locations, Movie Gallery closing 560 movie rental outlets, and bankrupt Sharper Image shutting down 90 to 180 stores.

Other retailers shutting down shops are: Ann Taylor, 117 stores; Eddie Bauer, 29 stores; Cache, 20 to 23 stores; Lane Bryant, 150 stores; Talbots, 100 stores; Gap, 85 stores; Foot Locker, 140 stores; Wickes going out of business; Levitz going out of business; Zales, 105 stores; Disney, 98 stores; Home Depot, 15 stores; Macy’s, 9 stores; Pep Boys, 33 stores; Ethan Allen, 12 stores; Wilsons, 158 stores; Pacific Sunwear, 228 stores; Bombay Company, 384 stores; KB Toys, 356 stores; and Dillards, six stores. Sheesh kebab!

The US financial sector has already been decimated by the fallout from the recent subprime mortgage fiasco. Workers laid off from financial services and retailing positions tend to get forced into lower-paying service jobs. But with consumers being squeezed by increasing gas and food prices, they’re not driving and patronising bars and restaurants as often, so it is somewhat doubtful that all of those laid-off employees will be able to find other work soon.

Reference article but complete text above

No Heller today. Crap…..

The decision should be out soon, right? Let's keep our fingers crossed. The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.

hmm, it's been very quiet and peaceful here without me, I see...

By a coincidence I was just looking at the Mercedes-Benz diesel-electric hybrid setup for the Sprinter platform the other day, and there were a few slides of PHEV analysis by Drs in the field...

Main problems hampering efficiency in the Prius are the sheer weight of the heavy battery and electric motor combination. That's why some diesels are just as economical. And the reason for the weight is that current battery technology still can't deliver power without size. The best performer for the application is a lithium-ion battery, but it is also currently v. expensive to produce -- and hence the fuel savings can be outweighed by the initial cost of the battery over the lifetime of the battery and/or vehicle. However, with time, mass-production will bring the price per unit down.

You can charge a lithium-ion battery some 3,000(?) times, I believe, far many more than a lead-acid battery, and it potentially will last up to the effective lifetime of the vehicle.

http://www.whnet.com/4x4/hybrid.html

oh, and that was Jeremy Clarkson from 'Top Gear', a lad's show about cars. Clarkson is about as redneck as a Brit can get ; )

STCM:
I’m more likely to buy an electric bicycle, or conversion kit. I commute by bicycle a bit today, about half of the time when the weather’s nice enough. If I had electric assist I’d probably bike to more places, and in somewhat warmer weather (I’m in Phoenix).

try my favourite: http://www.aerorider.com - it's costly, but the guy is seeking VC to try to build more cheaply say in US... anyone able to help?

Looks like my models are gathering steam.

DOW at 11,600
Fed rae increases being facored in as 33% chance next meeting, 96% probable meeting after that.
Write-offs at 400b but expected to go higher
Case=Shiller showing retrace ending early 2010 back to Mid October 2000 levels.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt, now that you mention it, I recall thinking the price was pretty affordable so it might have been 10 or 14 thousand.

So, the mortgage bailout is going to be paid by fees from Fannie and Freddie?

Rejoice! Rejoice! Heller won.

Today is a great day for freedom and liberty.

Although most presidents are just politicians, today and yesterday's Supreme Court decisions illustrated the importance to have conservative appointees and hence conservative appointers.

How is death penalty a cruel and unusual punishment for child rape? I think it should be the punishment for all kinds of rape. Execution is certainly not cruel. Besides, if we widely apply capital punishment it will become very usual.

Hey Duke,

Wasn't it you that called the DOW at 11,500 a thread or two ago.
You may have missed it by a few days but it still counts. Good job.

Bap33,

I would really like to see a source for point #3. A hi-po motor is designed for a completely different purpose than a high efficiency motor. If you build a motor with huge displacement/power and then run it at 55 mph, the throttle body/intake/exhaust will be too big for efficient power at low RPM. Modern engine management and valve control techniques can make up for some of that, but there will also be a lot of extra surface area that takes away from efficiency (more cylinders and larger pistons/valves = extra friction, extra cooling surfaces). The Corvette ZR1 makes over 600HP, and a ton of effort was put into making it "green", but it still barely makes over 20mpg highway even with a huge overdrive 6th gear.

Also, rotary engines have horrible MPG and reliability in addition to emissions problems. They are a solution to a problem that never existed.

Any way I can find that old thread? I did not take notes on my year end prediction. . . (how can I search the archive?)

Once the mass is moving, one of the largest uses of energy is from pushing the air out of the way. The other is rolling friction. It still takes X amount of energy to move X mass to X volocity. Forget hills. If your driving habits are a constant, it's a wash. You go up. You come down.

Aerodynamics are a good place to start. A pound of air is 13.39 cubic feet @ 72F. Not a large volume. On your commute to work, you are pushing hundreds of thousands of pounds of air out of the way. If that load could be made insignificant, milage would skyrocket.

Small, high HP power plants could get the mass moving yet use little fuel to maintain motion. Coupled with decreased drag, boom, there you have it.

There was a guy in Modesto who took a Geo Metro and fitted it with aero skirts and was documented getting 50-60 MPG @ 65 MPH. He got over 70 MPG driving like a granny.

Not bad when you consider that the stock milage was in the high thirties.

What's most shocking is Breyer's dissent in DC v Heller.

"The reason there is no clearly superior, less restrictive alternative to the District's handgun ban is that the ban's very objective is to reduce significantly the number of handguns in the District, say, for example, by allowing a law enforcement officer immediately to assume that any handgun he sees is an illegal handgun. And there is no plausible way to achieve that objective other than to ban the guns."

DC v Heller, Breyer's dissent, pp 32.

If there's any reason LESS appropriate for violating a Constitutional right than THE CONVENIENCE OF THE POLICE I'd like to hear it.

For by this logic, we should let the cops beat a confession out of an obviously guilty criminal, the 5th Amd. be damned. Similarly, the cops should just round up all the young black men near the scene of the crime, the 4th Amd. be damned.

Dennis, it was a 5-4 decision. Let's hope that the next Supreme Court judge is appointed by a conservative president.

It is fine to confer death penalty to innocent unborn children for their mothers' promiscuity, but it is NOT fine to sentence convicted child rapists to death.

What kind of world is this?

Anyone read this book?

http://www.amazon.com/Liberal-Fascism-American-Mussolini-Politics/dp/0385511841

I saw it in a Borders and I could not put it down before finishing a whole chapter.

EBGuy,

H3 has a special notice today for applying new seasonal factor and break factor. Is that an official notice that Fed will start "massaging" ugly H3 number?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
details here
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/annualreview.htm

Gun bans only keep the guns out of the hands of honest, law abiding, people. They have no effect on criminals. And it doesn't matter if a gun is legal or illegal as far as the cops are concerned. They'll put a bullet in your head and run the serial number later.

For by this logic, we should let the cops beat a confession out of an obviously guilty criminal, the 5th Amd. be damned. Similarly, the cops should just round up all the young black men near the scene of the crime, the 4th Amd. be damned.

That would be wrong, Dennis. By their logic, criminals are true victims. :roll:

Gun bans only keep the guns out of the hands of honest, law abiding, people. They have no effect on criminals.

But many would argue (implicitly) that criminals are really the same as honest, law abiding, people. They even have more civil rights than you and me because the society has somehow wronged them.

Peter,

You speak the gospel.