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Treasuries, Safety, and Interest


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2008 Sep 11, 1:52am   22,243 views  185 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

30 year bond

A weird thing happens when investors get nervous: huge amounts of money flow into US Treasuries, driving up the price, and driving down the yield.

Say that a 30-year bond has a yield of 5%. Some bad thing happens, and then investors rush to buy that bond for safety, bidding against each other, and increasing the cost of the bond so that the yield falls to 4%.

So paradoxically, during turbulent times, the US government can borrow for less when everyone else has to pay more!

But what happens when the bad thing is the potential insolvency of the US government itself? The disastrous decision by Paulson to make us all liable for the fraud perpetrated by Fannie and Freddie is a bad thing, but it's a bad thing that threatens those very bonds people look to for safety.

Is it time to short US treasuries? How can I short US treasuries anyway? Is that something you just call up your broker and ask them to do?

Patrick

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115   Paul189   2008 Sep 17, 1:24pm  

Thanks. Here is another "racist"

http://www.youtube.com/user/donharrold?ob=1

116   Irrational_guy   2008 Sep 17, 2:04pm  

TOB : Don't even compare yourself to paul. Its like a pig comparing itself to a lion !
Everybody on this board knows that you are a racist pig.

117   Irrational_guy   2008 Sep 17, 2:07pm  

warren buffet mentioned long time back that other countries will start buying US assets. Sad but true !

118   surfer-x   2008 Sep 17, 2:16pm  

Not to worry the Bay Area has been always and will remain an oasis. Real estate will never go down there because everyone makes 175K per yar! That's 350K per yar per couple! The streets are paved with mother fucking gold I tell ya! (900+/toz) Shit why just yesterday i bought 500k worth of google products. It's a brave new world and the rockstar(tm) laden BA will surely weather this storm.

Aahahahahahahahahahah suck it fags~!

119   surfer-x   2008 Sep 17, 2:18pm  

when you put melamine in baby formula you do so because babies like melamine. don't they?

120   surfer-x   2008 Sep 17, 2:23pm  

Now, most financial firms also invest for themselves. They use partners' or shareholders' money to place bets on stocks, bonds and other securities -- so-called "principal transactions." Merrill and other retail brokers, which once served individual clients, have ventured into investment banking. So have some commercial banks that were barred from doing so until the repeal in 1999 of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

Fucking slander. Surely this was not Clinton but those god damn Bushes(tm). The Clinton's feces was really gold, which now paves the Bay Area. Certainly the origins of the current crisis could come from the proud party of Obama now could they?

ahahahahahahahahahahahaahhaahahah, oh fuck it just doesn't get old.

121   Brand165   2008 Sep 17, 2:42pm  

surfer-x, we all know that beautiful places like the marina are still prime. you just need to face reality. why, just the other day a friend of mine had a listing in the fortress for $850,000 that sold for $1.1M after 57 bids! you guys are missing out on the bull market, but I've got a buddy who does zero down ARM mortgages. you can always refinance later! oops, my home just appreciated another $50K on zillow, i'm going to withdraw that equity and get a bmw!

:o

I really wish that Face Reality (a.k.a Marina Prime, The Other Side, etc.) and his asstard friends would show back up and face the music. Patrick really does need to put this blog in a time capsule so that future generations can know what realtors sounded like before we switched to a fixed payment system regulated by the government.

I smell opportunities coming here. If banks are so undercapitalized, and they've already written down huge losses after marking to market, isn't it in their best interests to just accept the first reasonable bid and move on? What would hold them back? And does FNM/FRE even have loss mitigation departments for the forthcoming wave of jingle mail?

122   KurtS   2008 Sep 17, 3:37pm  

Yeah, where is that "Marina is Subprime" tool anyway?
No doubt, he's pissing his pants in mortal fear of the imminent de-leveraging of his souless way of life, as the walls of his dinky Marina home constrict of the blackness of night, awaiting another cheerless day in the markets.

123   justme   2008 Sep 18, 12:42am  

Bap33,

it is not the "moral decay of the liberals" that is causing wall st and the overall economic functioning of the US in to go under.

Quite the contrary. It is the moral decay of (some of) the conservatives, who preach free markets and personal responsibility, but practice rigged markets and wast irresponsibility at the expense of the rest of society.

124   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 1:25am  

[delurk]
Bap, I am mostly with you. Liberalism confuses what ought to be and what is. Such misalignment of reality will tear apart any society over time.
[/delurk]

125   lunarpark   2008 Sep 18, 2:35am  

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080918.aspx

Bay Area home sales near bottom again, median price plunges

126   EBGuy   2008 Sep 18, 3:26am  

This seems to go well with the current tangent.

All the plans of big shots, all the desires of our governing masters, all the wishes and dreams of people who imagine themselves to be larger and more important than the rest of us, melt like snow on a sunny day.
In this sense, the market is the great leveler, the force in the universe that humbles all people and reminds them that they are no more important than anyone else and that their wishes must ultimately be shelved when faced with the overwhelming desire on the part of market traders that some other reality emerge.
For this reason, everyone has reason to celebrate the end of Lehman and Merrill. Overnight, while we slept, the seemingly mighty were humbled, the first made last and the last made first. The greatest became the least, all without a shot being fired.

http://www.mises.org/story/3109

127   DennisN   2008 Sep 18, 3:54am  

It's been fun following the story these past few years. Two years ago everyone here was wishing for real estate prices to tank so they could buy a house. Be careful what you wish for! The RE prices have tanked, and so has our economy.

My old San Jose house sold in May 2006 for $670K, which I pocketed on my way out of town. That house has now gone into forclosure and it apparently "sold" (maybe REO?) for $540K according to Zillow et al. Somehow $130K of "value" has evaporated. I'm curious what that house will sell for to an actual buyer in today's market.

128   sa   2008 Sep 18, 5:02am  

I can't believe this:

US Weighing Plan to Set Up Facility to Hold Bad Debts

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is working on a plan that would set up a government facility to take on bad debts from financial institutions, preventing a worsening of the global credit crisis, Wall Street sources have told CNBC.

The facility would be similar to the Resolution Trust Corporation, which was set up in 1989 to take on all the failed thrift assets during the savings and loan crisis, these sources said.

129   Eliza   2008 Sep 18, 5:45am  

"Liberalism confuses what ought to be and what is. Such misalignment of reality will tear apart any society over time."

Exactly that, yes. I know several sweet idealistic people who are very much in favor of the new proposition to decriminalize prostitution in SF. They have sweet Firefly-induced visions of respected and respectable sacred prostitutes, half high priestess and half counselor, finally free to practice their holy work in SF.

They confuse what ought to be with what is. Which is not quite so pretty.

130   justme   2008 Sep 18, 6:05am  

How about:

Free-Market-ism confuses what ought to be and what is. Such misalignment of reality will tear apart any society over time.

My point is, one should recognize that overly idealistic and naive persons come in all political flavors, and progressives have by no means "cornered that market" (so to speak :)) in that respect.

Eliza: no quibble with your other observation.

131   HeadSet   2008 Sep 18, 8:38am  

respectable sacred prostitutes, half high priestess and half counselor, finally free to practice their holy work in SF.

Wow, you get a great value for your $5 in SF!

Are you sure they would be priestess? I would presume most prostitutes in SF would be male.

And please, no "speaking from experience" cracks for Eliza or me.

132   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 10:17am  

SEC is lookingin to possibe ban on shorting of all stocks !

This will enable the rich guys to dump the shares slowly while the average joe will be holding the bag.

133   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 12:04pm  

TOB : good pointer.

In a nutshell :

There is big casino ( Shadow banking System)
where big players like Morgan stanley and the likes bet ( credit default swaps, derivatives...other fancy words) with public money ( borrowed from FED). All the while making money when they win and if they lose , Tax payer bails them out.

This was the biggest scam of the century and still we can't do much about it or the people who played the game.

134   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 12:04pm  

TOB : good pointer.

In a nutshell :

There is big c a s i n o ( Shadow banking System)
where big players like Morgan stanley and the likes bet ( credit default swaps, derivatives…other fancy words) with public money ( borrowed from FED). All the while making money when they win and if they lose , Tax payer bails them out.

This was the biggest scam of the century and still we can’t do much about it or the people who played the game.

135   Jimbo   2008 Sep 18, 12:46pm  

Even the Wall Street Journal is admitting that the financial sector blew up because of a lack of regulation:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122161053317045669.html

I think this was the high tide for the whole Republican "drown government in a bathtub" movement. Good riddance.

136   Randy H   2008 Sep 18, 2:06pm  

I don’t know where HARM, RandyH, DinOR, PeterP, LiLLL, Skibum, Jimbo, SFWoman, et.al are……

But they’ve gotta be “enjoying” (for lack of a better word) these past few days.

When I first found this site I though they were all WRONG about the housing situation…

They were not.

Man, what a show.

Lurking. Schadenfreude is bittersweet. I mostly just post on Zillow now, riling up the masses. I'm 80% hated there, which is more comfortable for my style.

By the way, Ron Paul is an idiot too. He has been unable to answer the obvious question about his proposal to eliminate the Fed and the US central banking function. That is, would you unilaterally disarm the USA of all nuclear weapons? No? Well, why do we have to have a central bank. That's right, Paul. Because everyone else does. I hate nuclear weapons too. The thought of using one terrifies me. But I fully support having them, and keeping them ready to use because other countries do. Eliminate the Fed and watch what happens. It's pure insanity.

...returning to lurkdom...

137   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 2:09pm  

God bless the group of people who created internet !

Without it , I am sure the only thing we would have known through newspaper and CNN would have been this : "We have a financial instability and Fed is trying to fix it"
I don't know how many fu*k ups would have gone unnoticed in the past.
If these guys can do these kind of things in this information age, imagine what they might have done in the past.We just don't know.

138   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 2:24pm  

Ron Paul is head and shoulders above these other crooks.

I totally agree.

However, since humanity is idiotic any possible leader is an idiot by extension.

When I first found this site I though they were all WRONG about the housing situation…

Too bad, I did not profit from my own predictions. I am the biggest idiot ever. :(

139   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 2:24pm  

I’m 80% hated there, which is more comfortable for my style.

If you also talk about Second Life, you will be 99.9% hated.

140   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 2:27pm  

If short-selling is banned, just watch those Put IVs to explode.

What are the other ways to profit from such a move?

Not investment advice.

Friendly suggestion: can we open a channel to discuss trading in the financial markets?

141   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 2:54pm  

what is a Put IV :-)

142   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 3:17pm  

Implied volatilities of put options.

143   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 3:36pm  

I can't think of anything except that it will slow downward movement of stocks. It will be factored in to stock market first thing in the morning

*not investment advice*

144   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 3:42pm  

Without shorting, the put-call parity may be distorted.

Not investment advice

145   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 3:45pm  

Is it just me? It seems that insane policies started rolling in since the Republican lost both houses in 2006.

146   DennisN   2008 Sep 18, 3:45pm  

If you don't like what the DOW is doing....change the DOW.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080918/10438174.html?.v=2

AIG's replacement by Kraft is the second change to the Dow this year. On Feb. 19, Bank of America and Chevron took spots vacated by Honeywell and Altria. By comparison, only two changes were made to the component makeup of the Dow in the 10 years previous.

147   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 3:48pm  

Perhaps soon DOW will have GLD? :roll:

148   Peter P   2008 Sep 18, 3:54pm  

Question: without short-sellers (and hence short-covering rallies), who/what is to stop a bear market of biblical magnitude?

I am depressed again. This is why I am here posting. :(

149   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 4:08pm  

Short selling is banned but demand and supply is still alive.
Stocks in china still go down pretty fast.I believe there is no shorting there.
I think baninng short selling will reduce VIX a lot.

*not investment advice*

150   Jimbo   2008 Sep 18, 4:18pm  

I spend most of my time on Socketsite, posting as Noe Valley Jim.

Is it just me? It seems that insane policies started rolling in since the Republican lost both houses in 2006.

Yeah, it's just you. The Executive branch is still Republican, and they are the ones nationalizing everything in sight.

151   SP   2008 Sep 18, 4:24pm  

Anyone know where Paulson's father is buried? I want to go piss on his grave, and yell at him for not using a condom.

152   cb   2008 Sep 18, 4:33pm  

Yeah, it’s just you. The Executive branch is still Republican, and they are the ones nationalizing everything in sight.

Congress will soon approve the latest bail-out plan, they can't let the Republicans steal the show. It's only half a trillion.

153   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 4:36pm  

Its funny that the media/mccain and obama are aming wal street greed for all this mess. Human beings have been greedy for past millions of years.They didn't become greedy suddenly overnight.
Its not greed but giving greed a free pass which created this mess.
Greed was always there and will always be there. Its governments responsibility to have the right framework to control the beast for our own good.

154   snmr   2008 Sep 18, 4:37pm  

Typo : Its funny that the media/mccain/obama are blaming wal street greed for all this mess

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