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Low Interest Rates Make It A Bad Time To Buy


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2009 Jan 13, 8:08am   12,672 views  144 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

hard to sell

Realtors hunting for the few fools not yet parted with their money keep insisting that low rates are a good thing for buyers. Not true. Low interest rates make it a bad time to buy.

First of all, house prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates have nowhere to go but up, then prices have nowhere to go but down.

Secondly, anyone buying with an adjustable rate will get a nasty surprise when his rate later increases at the same time that the value of his house has fallen.

Though I suppose if you get a 30-year fixed rate loan and don't care about resale value because you never plan to leave, then maybe it's OK to buy and bet that inflation will wipe out most of your loan. Not many signs of inflation yet, so such a bet might not pay off.

#housing

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123   thenuttyneutron   2009 Jan 21, 5:46am  

Defibw Great Depression. WW1 occured before the Great Depression that I think of. Are you thinking about the Panic of 1907?

124   thenuttyneutron   2009 Jan 21, 5:47am  

*define darn my hands moved to the left just like America.

125   justme   2009 Jan 21, 5:52am  

s/WW1/WW2/g

126   Peter P   2009 Jan 21, 6:13am  

Well, we got out of the Panic of 1837 in a few short years without a new deal.

I don't know why History appears to idolize FDR. Who is Krugman anyway?

127   Peter P   2009 Jan 21, 6:17am  

My bad, according to this book WW2 did not end the Great Depression...

... true prosperity only returned when Washington turned away from New Dealism following the election of the Eightieth Congress in 1946

http://www.amazon.com/Rethinking-Great-Depression-American-Ways/dp/1566634717

128   Peter P   2009 Jan 21, 6:20am  

I am glad that BHO idolizes Abraham Lincoln, a Republican. :)

Another book of truth:

http://www.amazon.com/FDRs-Folly-Roosevelt-Prolonged-Depression/dp/140005477X/ref=pd_sim_b_2

FDR hampered the recovery.

The book is so popular that it is out of stock. People must be scared.

I have faith in BHO. I think he will not kill the economy like FDR did. He can actually walk!

(But I know he is not a Jacksonian Democrat. :( )

BTW, if there was no New Deal there would not be the Great Depression because it would just be a regular depression.

129   kewp   2009 Jan 21, 6:40am  

Wealthy people will not want to be considered a US Person for Tax Purpose. It is the worst deal in the world.

They can just retire to London or Monte Carlo with a much better tax plan.

You are thinking of billionaires.

Think millionaires with families. In unstable countries.

130   thenuttyneutron   2009 Jan 21, 6:45am  

At this point I wish the government would nationalize the banks. At least I have some say when I go to vote on who runs it. Now they just steal money from us and give it away to the f*cked banksters.

If we can just wipe out the monopoly money, certainty will again return to the market and allow a recovery. I have lots of cash on the sidelines that I don't dare put at risk because the game is so rigged against the people with no power. Would you want to risk your money when the rules are different for the "elite" people?

131   Peter P   2009 Jan 21, 6:49am  

Think millionaires with families. In unstable countries.

They can already come in by starting businesses and creating employment. Isn't that more productive?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EB-5_visa

132   justme   2009 Jan 21, 6:54am  

Neutron,

Totally agree. Unlike Bush/Paulson, I think we can count on Obama/XYZ to insist on getting the proper valuation when buying common stock on behalf of the taxpayer.

The value gotten will be the real test of Obama.

133   Peter P   2009 Jan 21, 6:55am  

The only proper valution for the government to buy common stock is $0.00 per share. Not a penny more.

134   thenuttyneutron   2009 Jan 21, 7:11am  

Peter P, I agree but that is not what we have. Would you rather take all the the whole pie or let them(banksters) keep it and take your money?

At this point I would just be happy to know all the bank shareholders were wiped out.

135   SP   2009 Jan 21, 8:34am  

kewp Says:
Investment in real estate in US guarantees green card.

This is not new - the 'investor category' has been around for decades. The nominal amount to be invested is $1M, but it turns out that you can invest less than that up-front, if you can show job-creation as a result of your investment.

As for wealthy refugees coming here, I don't know if that will work. The US has usually been a destination for people who want to work a job, but not a very attractive domicile for the idle rich.

136   justme   2009 Jan 21, 9:10am  

s/common stock/preferred stock/gi

Not good at the details today.

137   OO   2009 Jan 21, 9:12am  

Actually even the millionaires in unstable countries are ditching the US as a destination, precisely because of global taxation. The US is the only country on earth that taxes its citizens and residents globally regardless of their current abode.

The private banking branches in Asia used to have the US as the top destination for the multi-millionaires from developing and unstable countries, since these branches offer passport acquisition as a part of the wealth management plan. US has been out of favor compared to Canada and Australia, which do not tax their citizens globally. Most of these rich people just want a passport as a backup, but they prefer living in places they are familiar with, and most importantly, where they have connections to continue raking in. After the financial crisis, there have been quite a few high profile rich Asians giving up their citizenship to cut their loss on taxes.

The US passport also requires 5-yr residency, which sucks for those who are here purely for the purpose passport acquisition. Canada and Australia are both 2 years shorter, and once you acquire the passports, you can go right back to your home country digging gold without paying the Aussie or Canadian government a cent. It is also much easier for these people to shield their asset from other countries than from the all-mighty IRS.

138   OO   2009 Jan 21, 9:18am  

The current investor category has different investment thresholds for different states depending on their popularity. More compromising destinations like AL, AR has a threshold of only $500K. $1M is in fact not enough for California because your business plan will have to be more beefed up.

It is also not so easy, you will have to provide proof of 5 continuous years of employing at least 5-10 FT American citizens or PRs. One may end up putting in more than $1M as initially committed just to keep the business going.

I doubt if $1M housing investment will be enough, because idle investment immigration usually calls for a much higher $ amount than active investment immigration (entrepreneurship). I am more inclined to think that if there is such a thing, the threshold is likely to be at least 2 houses of $2M worth. The government wants to make sure that there is no easy way out for you, you have to buy investment houses, not just primary residence, putting your fund at a bigger risk to "buy" the US passport.

139   kewp   2009 Jan 21, 11:23am  

My point is that unrest abroad may entice foreign interests to move businesses here.

That is all.

140   kewp   2009 Jan 21, 10:54pm  


At this point I wish the government would nationalize the banks. At least I have some say when I go to vote on who runs it. Now they just steal money from us and give it away to the f*cked banksters.

Given that our banking system is insolvent, this is an almost certainty.

However, should this come to pass, hyper-inflation will be a serious risk. There will no longer be any safeguards preventing heli-Ben from firing up the printing presses.

141   PermaRenter   2009 Feb 2, 11:54am  

Chipmaker Maxim Integrated Products Inc. has announced the closing of a factory in Dallas, which will result in 172 job cuts.

Sunnyvale-based Maxim Integrated/Dallas Semiconductor notified the Texas Workforce Commission that the company has initiated a plant closing at its Dallas facility at 4401 S. Beltwood Pkwy. in Dallas.

The letter indicates that 167 employees on the manufacturing side will lose their jobs, in addition to five other employees who work in administrative or other positions.

Maxim Integrated purchased Dallas Semiconductor back in 2001.

In the layoff announcement, Maxim (NASDAQ:MXIM) tells the Workforce Commission that employees were notified on Jan. 19. The announcement says the first round of cuts will take place on or about March 20, with additional cuts to take place in June.

142   PermaRenter   2009 Feb 2, 11:56am  

SAN CARLOS, California — Before the economic meltdown, Tesla Motors had ambitious plans to build an electric-car factory in Silicon Valley. But it has shifted gears, saying now that it will find an abandoned factory to help it win a low-cost federal loan.

The $450 million that Tesla hopes to get from government loan programs means it would go in the direction of "retrofitting existing buildings rather than constructing new ones," according to a report in the local San Jose Mercury News.

Tesla is in competition with other automakers for low-interest loans from the U.S. Department of Energy. That federal agency has funds available to develop so-called "brownfield" sites — factories that are no longer in use.

The AFP news service reported on Friday that Tesla is in "late stage" negotiations with another site for its Model S plant and expects to begin production in 2011 as originally planned.

The Model S is a five-passenger sedan run by a lithium-ion battery pack. The Model S is expected to be priced around $60,000.

143   PermaRenter   2009 Feb 2, 12:00pm  

Based on feedback from Patrick.net posters, we are deciding to postpone buying a home by 9 months. Will get back in the market on late October .... goodbye Kentwood Place ... goodbye Kristin Munday - (408) 973-1326

144   PermaRenter   2009 Feb 2, 1:29pm  

In recent months, Americans have been disappointed and appalled by Wall Street, banks, the big-budget film “Australia,” investment counselors, Detroit, the governors of at least two states, hedge fund managers and even the geese at La Guardia, which used to know better than to interfere with those metal birds they fly among.

After Sunday, you could add Super Bowl advertising to that lengthening list of letdowns.

Few commercials that ran during Super Bowl XLIII on NBC offered viewers anything special. To paraphrase a line from the movie “Sabrina,” you could pick some ads out of a hat blindfolded and come up with better ones.

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