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What now?16201


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2009 Feb 17, 3:47am   12,822 views  89 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

So home prices are down, gold price is up, and Europe is facing economic collapse...

What should we do? What are the best investments? What stocks/currencies/bonds/commodities should we short?

We must think for ourselves because nobody else will care.

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59   Malcolm   2009 Feb 18, 11:21pm  

Not to mention the new private banks that will naturally be formed.

60   OO   2009 Feb 19, 1:13am  

What I've always been thinking is, where did the scrap metal for Russian nuclear plants go? Particularly after the USSR breakdown, like someone was going to enforce the safety guidelines in the cleanup?

The Indian contamination was obviously caused by their sloppy enforcement, and noticed the iron ore price just a year ago? Scrap metal price went through the roof and I won't be surprised that someone there just thought reselling scrap metal from nuclear plants was a "profitable" idea.

Now, if iron ore price was going to rise again (for some strange reason) in the not-so-distant future, with a global depression in place, you can count on nuclear plants scrap metal going into circulation in a big way again, and the US won't be spared, not because we import, but because there are enough poor people out there stealing rail track, public signboard for the scrap metal value.

Maybe switching to clay pot is not a bad idea

61   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 1:35am  

in firefox: ctrl- +

Thanks!

62   Eokram   2009 Feb 19, 1:37am  

This guy says that if we let Citi and BofA die, we could bail out the rest of the banks with the original TARP funds:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/121245-rating-the-top-12-u-s-banks-from-hidden-gems-to-zombies

63   Randy H   2009 Feb 19, 1:45am  

Anyone who wants to discuss the Irresponsible Homedebtors Act of 2009 is invited to my Capitalism 2.0 thread on it.

64   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 2:03am  

The only thing we should do about the flood of foreclosures is to speed up the processing of foreclosures. Get the National Guard involved and throw non-paying homedebtors on the street.

The only way we can see a bottom soon is for us to allow the market to face reality as quickly as possible.

65   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 2:05am  

As I have said before, 8 more years of Bush would be vastly superior to 4 years of Obama. But anyway...

Can we fast forward to 2012 please? I rather have Prez Palin.

66   empty_houses   2009 Feb 19, 3:48am  

Justme
I just think that the market would equalize on it's own. Obama is playing a game that is going to make things worse. His idea's wont work and they've been tried before. Politics have taken over. It's all about paying people off and securing the next election. He's going to have trouble soon though. He blew his chance to reach across the aisle. He's got some major programs coming up soon that he will need support for from the republicans.
I realize that as a politician he had to do something. He could not set back and watch the laws of economics take their course. The people that elected him had too many expectations. Now, people are trying to figure out where the handouts are. They want to know what line to get in and where the line is going to be.

67   sa   2009 Feb 19, 4:07am  

I gave up Obama after he agreed to vote on TARP without any safeguard to tax payers. Of course he is already talking about 2012. That is his only job.

68   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 4:18am  

The responsibility for the big holes in the TARP lie with Henry "3-page" Paulson and George Bush. Lest anyone forgets.

69   FormerAptBroker   2009 Feb 19, 4:27am  

OO Says:

> Btw, I found Valentine Day weekend to be extraordinarily
> busy both at shopping mall or restaurants, is it an indication
> of short-term bottom, or an indication of desperation of
> our kind to secure good sex?

I was up in the Napa Valley over Valentine's Day weekend and I have never seen it this dead. We were at Meadowood and the place felt about 25% full with very few diners with us for lunch in the grill and dinner upstairs on Friday night. There was a good crowd at Martini House on Valentines Day, but not a lot of people around on Saturday and Sunday in St. Helena and Yountvill (even with the extra people out to watch the TOC roll through)...

P.S. Welcome back Randy (and it would be nice if we got new threads more than twice a month)...

70   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 4:29am  

Of course he is already talking about 2012. That is his only job.

This is why I don't know why everyone was so excite about him last year.

71   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 4:32am  

We were at Meadowood and the place felt about 25% full with very few diners with us for lunch in the grill and dinner upstairs on Friday night.

Haven't been there for a while. Are they all renovated yet?

72   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 4:54am  

FAB's observation fits with the general picture that recessions cause people to stay closer to home. Junkets to Vegas, Napa, and the like will be down. Local destinations will be up, at least for the time being.

73   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 5:04am  

Napa is close enough to home. No flying required.

74   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 5:09am  

The problem with the whole cramdown/assistance picture is that it is fundamentally intractable and unsolvable.

Homedebtors are not on the hook in most states and most cases, because of non-recourse loans, option of bankruptcy and the lack of old-school debtor's prison.

Banks are not on the hook, because in reality it is the bank depositors that are. That is, until FDIC steps in and places the banks in receivership (keep in minf that that receivership is one step beyond what is typically known as "nationalization").

The whole big song-and-dance about mortgage rework is all about keeping the homedebtors and the banks in the game long enough to work off some of the losses, and in parallel prop up prices by inflating the monetary base.

I think everyone knows that the above is true, but it does not hurt to repeat it every so often.

Mind you, I am not defending any of the above, especially the part about inflating the monetary base and propping up house prices. I'm simply reciting what the big picture is.

75   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 5:10am  

PP, so then why did the people show up in Napa for a "romantic weekend"?

76   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 5:14am  

I thought FAB said Napa was dead during that weekend.

77   sa   2009 Feb 19, 5:14am  

The responsibility for the big holes in the TARP lie with Henry “3-page” Paulson and George Bush. Lest anyone forgets.

I didn't mean we are good with these guys. We already know what these guys are, just had some hopes on the new guy. What I am tired of is digging new holes to fill the hole we are in. He throws a Trillion around and talks about bringing deficits under control (or starting a discussion about it). He talks about helping responsible home owners and we all know it can be gamed easily. He does all the nice talk and his actions are far from his talk. His pay restrictions on executives just covers a few top guys who will be compensated different ways at a later time.

78   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 5:15am  

To save money, this is the best romantic suggestion...

Let's be spiritual and meditate. You and me. Close our eyes. I see roses...

79   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 5:17am  

Politicians, and their voters, must understand that inaction is often the best course of action.

The "let's do something about it" mentality must change. It only reflects the arrogance and ignorance of humanity.

80   HeadSet   2009 Feb 19, 6:08am  

Let’s be spiritual and meditate. You and me. Close our eyes. I see roses…

Yeah Pete, that'll get you laid.

81   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 6:36am  

Yeah Pete, that’ll get you laid.

It is all in the mind. ;-)

82   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 8:28am  

Correction:

PP, so then why did the people NOT show up in Napa for a “romantic weekend”?

83   Peter P   2009 Feb 19, 9:30am  

PP, so then why did the people NOT show up in Napa for a “romantic weekend”?

Napa is quite expensive. Perhaps people want to save money.

Need to market my "Mind, Body, Spirit - How to date a girl for free" video. :)

84   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 10:16pm  

Well, if you don't consider so-called "fine dining" an expense, then you may be correct, or at least up to a point.

85   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 19, 10:23pm  

Close your eyes, and imagine you are geting a spoonful of Creme Brule...

86   Peter P   2009 Feb 20, 3:05am  

I taste vanilla.

87   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 21, 1:36am  

Only one event this Bank Failure Friday?

88   Peter P   2009 Feb 22, 8:56am  

Only one event this Bank Failure Friday?

Yes, only vanilla creme brule.

89   🎂 justme   2009 Feb 22, 11:33am  

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/806418a0-0140-11de-8f6e-000077b07658.html

Citi is trying to force the US taxpayers to convert the taxpayers ownership of preferred shares (purchased under TARP-1 in Oct/Nov) into common shares.

The motivation is obvious:

1. Citi does not want to pay back the preferred shareholders (THAT's YOU!!) the principal, nor the interest.

2. Citi wants to convert the preferred into essentially worthless common stock

3. Citi is going to ask for another capital injection in the form of selling preferred stock to the public (US taxpayers), but not until the previous batch of has been made worthless.

JUST SAY NO !! Under TARP-1, Paulson overpaid tremendously for the preferred stock, thereby shifting the losses to the taxpayers.

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