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Asset prices and depressions


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2009 Feb 26, 2:49am   16,826 views  165 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

under water

Two questions:

1. Should asset prices be managed?
2. Are depressions necessary to the business cycles?

If depressions are necessary, then fighting them is a mere exercise of populist reaction. If depressions can safely be avoided, should it be done through artificial support asset prices? Or should we focus on frequent and substantial technological or productivity gains?

Peter

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32   frank649   2009 Feb 27, 1:51am  

The springboard effect of the free market from visions and investments of the government are what has made this country stand out as the world leader.

Sorry, I just don't buy that.

inherent limitations of private firms.

We're still waiting for examples.

not really interested in your POV

Well, there's a whole nation that's obviously fed up with your POV here today.

33   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 1:52am  

Peter P Says:
February 27th, 2009 at 9:48 am
"We may want both volume (sales) AND price confirmation. Are the sales in SD mostly conventional or REO?"

I'm sure a lot of it is REO, and although it is interesting it is irrelevant to the more important point that things are starting to move again. I was happy to hear the news because it might indicate the economy (at least here) is back into a gear, what gear that is? Who knows.

34   justme   2009 Feb 27, 1:52am  

Right, as we all ought to know by now, only Gubberment can be self-serving, corrupt and incompetent. Why? Because Rush LImbaugh says so.

35   frank649   2009 Feb 27, 1:53am  

The same can be said for the mob or any racket.

A very appropriate analogy!

36   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 1:55am  

RE: inherent limitations of private firms

Don't forget the inherent limitations of humanity. And don't even think that humanity can oversome its own limitations.

If God could adopt a relatively laissez-faire approach (He even allowed Holocaust to occur), we must think hard before adopting any overzealous policy.

37   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 1:57am  

I’m sure a lot of it is REO, and although it is interesting it is irrelevant to the more important point that things are starting to move again.

I firmly believe that any the right price (could be $0 or lower sometimes), anything moves. This is why an auction-based price-discovery system is superior and it should be considered even for non-REO sales.

38   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 1:58am  

Justme, if Rush Limbaugh can afford a G550, he deserves some respect. Similarly, I also like Oprah. She has a GLEX.

39   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:05am  

(G550 = private jet)

No he doesn't deserve much respect. He just needs the G550 to feel like he's a big shot.

40   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 2:06am  

"Sorry, I just don’t buy that."
And I shoudl care why?

"inherent limitations of private firms.
We’re still waiting for examples."
Not sure who we is but OK, you sucked me in and I can't resist but I'm not going to continue a debate because you don't have anything other than tired Peter P (who I actually think is OK) type pure free market theory rhetoric.

Private industry doesn’t have the time or resources to conduct fundamental research (Lyons-Johnson, 1998). Companies on their own will correctly not take into account the full social benefits of fundamental research.
From a societal view, the free market has an inherent flaw in that there is no incentive for firms to place any value on the spillover benefits from R&D, since they cannot recognize all of the returns from those spillovers. There is credible theory that says firms invest less than the socially optimum level, and that an infusion from the government can rectify this market failure. On average a firm will recoup a 20-30% return on investment in R&D, however society will recoup a 50% or more return on the investment. This happens as others build upon the innovation and take it in directions the original innovator could not have imagined. Without some intervention certain projects that would yield a positive net result are not undertaken (Stiglitz & Wallstein, 1999).
The United States will soon find itself falling behind in technology development, standards of living, and overall quality of life unless different entities work together. Traditional views of markets, and government roles are being blurred by the new global marketplace, and now seem outdated (Larkin,1994).
Public private partnerships have existed in the United States since its beginning. One could make the point that the discovery of the new world in itself was a partnership since Columbus’s voyage was funded by the Spanish government. The Constitution of the United States affirms the role of the government in promoting commerce through different vehicles. The founding fathers of this country recognized the role of the government in promoting private sector innovations by the patent system established by one of two clauses in Article 1 Section 8 of the United States’ Constitution which are commonly cited as the basis for the use of government to promote our free market system.
1. Congress is to make laws to provide for the general welfare of the United States..
2. To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;
Additional laws
This tradition is upheld by some of the more recent laws cited in the literature:
The Stevenson-Wydler Technology Innovation Act of 1980 expanded the authority of the Department of Commerce to promote a policy of supporting technology transfer and the use of government scientific and technology resources (Stiglitx & Wallsten, 1999).
The Small Business Innovation Development Act of 1982 (SBIR) required government agencies in charge of R&D to set aside a percentage for grants (Stiglitx & Wallsten, 1999).
The National Cooperative Research Act of 1984 loosened antitrust research on private collaborations (Stiglitx & Wallsten, 1999).
The 1986 Technology Transfer Act made it easier for government researchers to work with entrepreneurs. This law allowed government agencies to enter into R&D agreements with the private sector (Lyons-Johnson, 1998).
An executive order in 1996 by President Clinton encouraged the development and use of technology through the transfer to the private sector, which he believed was best at developing new technologies and bringing them to market (Stiglitx & Wallsten, 1999).
It wasn’t through legislation that the potential for partnerships was established. In fact most federally sponsored R&D was not undertaken with the goal of yielding commercial applications. It was just through observation that many leaders realized that the government was unexpectedly leading the development of things like jet engines, semiconductors, microelectronics, computers, advanced energy, environmental technologies, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals (Stiglitz & Wallsten, 1999).

41   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 2:08am  

Justme, I suggest that you go to a private jet trade show (EBACE 2009 is coming up, in beautiful Geneva) and sit inside a few jets. That is the greatest motivation one can possibly get.

BTW, a Gulfstream is nice but it is still quite small with a few people trying to move around inside. A egotistical person will settle for no less than a 747 or an A380.

42   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:15am  

I'll take two.

43   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 2:15am  

At the Reagan Library I went inside his AF1 jet. Now that's the way to fly.

44   frank649   2009 Feb 27, 2:16am  

Right, as we all ought to know by now, only Gubberment can be self-serving, corrupt and incompetent.

A corrupt and/or incompetent free market entity will not last long (absent government intervention such as with BAC or C).

Will a government that is self-serving, corrupt and incompetent last long? History would indicate no, but whatever the outcome, government corruption and incompetence have far worse consequences as is shown with the current crisis.

45   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 2:22am  

At the Reagan Library I went inside his AF1 jet. Now that’s the way to fly.

Yes, I have been inside. I love the Reagan Library!

Malcolm, the industry has made a lot of advances since then. Many corporations and individuals own the Boeing Business Jet, which was developed from a 737 airliner. Inside, you will find a bedroom and even a shower!

It flies further than the old 707-based AF1 too.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj/

Boeing will also outfit a 747, 777, or 787 as a private jet.

46   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 2:26am  

BTW, I would recommend a visit to anyone who just wants to visit the 80s. It is a beautiful place where you can pay your respects to a great leader and walk the grounds or have a meal with an awesome view. It is a fun full day which costs next to nothing.

47   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:27am  

Well, whatever the motivation is for a business jet, it sure did not motivate any big bank CEO sufficiently to make the right decisions on behalf of even their own shareholders.

48   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 2:28am  

Yeah, but they are really cool. I used to work near Palomar airport and seeing those big shiny Gulfstreams coast in made me smile.

49   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:36am  

>>A corrupt and/or incompetent free market entity will not last long (absent government intervention such as with BAC or C).

Well, I suppose you would have to get rid of the FDIC, and then let the depositors take the loss. I don't see much satisfaction and correction stemming from that.

Still, Vikram the bandit Pandit and Ken kenny boy Lewis would only lose their jobs, but keep their riches.

Does your imagined version of the free market have clawback provisions for ill-gotten gains?

50   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:38am  

At some point, every Queen or King had to own a Faberge gold egg and have colonies in order to feel important. Right now business jets is what turns everyone on. There's nothing new here. Personally, I 'd like to have my own nuclear reactor (only kidding).

51   HeadSet   2009 Feb 27, 2:49am  

Personally, I ‘d like to have my own nuclear reactor

Light water only, right?

52   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 2:50am  

It is a beautiful place where you can pay your respects to a great leader and walk the grounds or have a meal with an awesome view.

I absolutely agree. Well, I had to fly into John Wayne though.

I used to work near Palomar airport and seeing those big shiny Gulfstreams coast in made me smile.

Aren't they the cutest things. :)

Private jets symbolize freedom the same way automobiles did. Also, they are a essential business tool for large companies. I do not understand the outcry against them. Companies should be able to keep their jets to receive TARP. You cannot tie people's hands and expect them to improve.

53   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 2:53am  

Right now business jets is what turns everyone on.

Well, also megayachts. Nowadays, 300-ft yachts (larger than some smaller cruise ships) are considered small.

Now, the trend is that people will build both a yacht and a support ship for the helicopter (and all the toys) so that the downwash from the blades will not ruin the fine teak decks of the mothership.

54   justme   2009 Feb 27, 2:57am  

Actually, I'd like to have my own nuclear submarine. I'd go out in the Atlantic and play underwater footsie with the Brits and the French, just for the thrill of it. Yeah, that's the ticket.

55   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 3:06am  

Not sure about nuclear but you may be interested in this:

http://www.ussubs.com/submarines/phoenix_1000.php3

It is over 200-ft long and not much more expensive than a new BBJ.

57   sa   2009 Feb 27, 3:44am  

Private jets symbolize freedom the same way automobiles did. Also, they are a essential business tool for large companies. I do not understand the outcry against them. Companies should be able to keep their jets to receive TARP. You cannot tie people’s hands and expect them to improve

I agree completely. Give them back their jets and get back our Trillions.

58   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 3:45am  

Give them back their jets and get back our Trillions.

Absolutely! Bailouts are bad anyway.

59   HeadSet   2009 Feb 27, 3:56am  

Peter P,

What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

60   Malcolm   2009 Feb 27, 4:09am  

Atlantis Submarines operates private submarine tours in Hawaii. These aren't Disney ride submarines, but real ones that go to 125 ft. It is a pretty interesting sensation to be 120 feet at the bottom of the ocean, especially in that clear water.

61   kewp   2009 Feb 27, 4:28am  

What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

This is on my shopping list...

http://www.ussubs.com/submarines/phoenix_1000.php3

62   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 4:36am  

What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

I think Paul Allen's Octopus carries a small submarine already.

You can't pay me to go to space.

Honestly, I am not thrilled about having a private submarine. I need breathing room. Besides, I am practical. I am more interested in something that will get me to Europe whenever I want at mach 0.85.

63   kewp   2009 Feb 27, 4:47am  

A corrupt and/or incompetent free market entity will not last long (absent government intervention such as with BAC or C).

Will a government that is self-serving, corrupt and incompetent last long? History would indicate no, but whatever the outcome, government corruption and incompetence have far worse consequences as is shown with the current crisis.

Uh, and what interests have corrupted the government, exactly? Other than corrupt and/or incompetent free market entities?

What other entities exist that could corrupt the government other than private interests? Aliens?

You need to read this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Contagion-Financial-Epidemic-Sweeping-Economy/dp/0470442212/

The entire book deconstructs your supposed free-market nonsense completely and finally.

A central tenet is that behind every supposed governmental free-market intervention (or lack thereof) is a powerful industry lobby fixated on maintaining that status quo; particularly of its corrupt and/or incompetent management.

The current crisis is *entirely* the product of private interests seizing control of the Federal Government/Federal Reserve and destroying the regulatory measures that would have prevented this meltdown.

Your entire position is bankrupt because for the last eight years there hasn't been an independent government in the United States. Just crony capitalists and their industry handlers.

64   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 4:51am  

What other entities exist that could corrupt the government other than private interests? Aliens?

This cracks me up.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned."
-- Some Quote

There is no such thing as a public person. Behind every governmental figure there lies the same human weaknesses as exibited in every other private, self-serving entity under the sun.

65   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 4:54am  

But don't get me wrong. I believe government needs to exists, only just so to protect my interests.

66   DinOR   2009 Feb 27, 4:55am  

Whether or not you're a fan of Limbaugh's ( and actually I'm *not, it just moves e-n-t-i-r-e-l-y too slow for me ) he's been doing the show for years.

@SSHOLES like John Devaney ( anyone remember the 210' motor yacht "Carry Trade"? ) were by any comparison, a mere flash in the pan. Kind of like my @SSHOLE neighbor 'thought' he was a "bigshot" ( have I told you guys about how his bank went under and the lights are OFF at his condo..? )

There's leverage... and then there's longevity. 'That' is what "I" respect! No matter 'what' you do for a living.

67   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 4:57am  

I thought his yacht measured only 142-ft...

68   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 4:58am  

Sad... is length, in inches or feet, the only measurement of a man?

69   DinOR   2009 Feb 27, 5:00am  

I... stand, corrected. O.K, so he was 68 foot LESS @SSHOLE!

In any regard it was enough to land him a spot in the Housing Bubble Hall of Shame. Cripes Peter?

70   Peter P   2009 Feb 27, 5:02am  

Sure. ;)

71   DinOR   2009 Feb 27, 5:03am  

Oh, my point was that his now defunct and useless firm "U.S Capital Markets" simply sprouted up like a mushroom -solely- to exploit the MBS Securitization Model. Had it not been for that, he'd of been peddling Muni's to "widows and dentists".

Sorry f@cker.

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