patrick.net

WWII,

Cool! Thanks.

Yup,
I've actually met another person on an Austin Forum and he told me that there are likely thousands of foreclosures. Austin is totally diffrent than SF in that barely 15 minutes outside of the city, the prices drop like a rock. Kinda cool if you ask me. I'm all about buying a mini-ranch for a cool 150k, 30 minutes from Austin.
I get a feeling that severe indicators of a downmarket as evidenced in places like Austin will be contributing factors to downgrading property in SF. I think the mindset that "thank god I don't live anywhere except California" is at this point the only thing that's keeping california from totally crashing.

Amen to Foreclosures. My favorite word too... which means: Cheaper housing.

Scott C,

What an amazing turn-around! You've managed to go from "perma-bull" to saying foreclosure is your favorite word? Well this is at least a step in the right direction. When you come to the realization that realtors from coast to coast are having EXTREME difficulty making a 6% commission stick you will be truly on the road to recovery! When the "boom goes bust as it inevitably will" it will hurt everyone and realtors especially. Please read George's post regarding the "future" for big banks in RE and paultry commissions. Start liking it!

Scott C,

Oh btw, once you've actually lived through a true crash you won't need a hairdresser any more. You will (as I have already done, pull your hair out in clumps) making the services of a "hairdresser" completely unecessary. Please do not make any future references to the stock market bubble. You are not qualified to address this topic. You weren't there man! You weren't there. But you will find out shortly. Keep in touch.

Wahahaha! All I can say is that it is time for the empire to crumble!

I absolutely hate when they put the “curbs in!” We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will.

The curbs were theoretically supposed to break "feedback loops" caused by programmed trading along with all the psychological stuff. In theory, it wasn't a bad idea since program trading can feed on itself and cause exponential growth of momentum in a frighteningly short period of time.

The only problem is that curbs don't work. I've read research that curbs actually compound program trading related problems. Because program trading isn't going to go away (actually only get worse as even amateur retail investors can use some limited program mechanisms now), but we don't want the market to fail due to "synthetic amplification", we're probably stuck with curbs and market shutdowns.

What someone should do is work out an intelligent program trading AI that knows how to spot market feedback and arbitrages that. That would make someone tons of HaHas while helping to solve the market-curb problem.

Scott wrote:

> The 6% commission rate is not going to go
> away. As a business, no real estate company
> can operate profitably at below that rate.
> Those that try, go broke and out of business quick.

If you sell an average home on my parents street you will make about $300K with a 6% commission, one home a month is $3.6mm a year so it will not be hard to keep the lights on in a one man office for half that….

Stanley Lo is a guy that sells a lot of property near my parents does very well only charging 3.68 (All the Chinese buyers go with him since his fee is not only cheaper, but it has a "lucky 8" in it)...

http://www.greenbanker.com/

tannenbaum,

The DQ article makes less than no sense. In all nine BA counties sales are down 20 to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg. of what, 2.6 to 16.6%? Sure! I always enjoy the language they use and apparently get away with. "Down payment sizes are stable". Stable. Uh, O.K what does that really mean? "So honey, how are things at work?" "Oh....... stable". I'm sure every wino in downtown San Diego at one time had a "stable" job.

"The use of adjustable-rate mortgages over the last 4 months has decreased". No. The use of mortgages has decreased over the last 4 months, adjustable or otherwise. We could go on but.........

DinOR Says:

> The DQ article makes less than no sense.
> In all nine BA counties sales are down 20
> to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg.

Remember most real estate "current sales" data is 4 to 6 months old.

The property that "sold" at the end of April is still in escrow, and may stay in escrow for a couple months then it takes the county a while to actually record the sale and release the data.

I hate to get hyper-sensitive about these issues but with all of the half truths and carefully worded spins the RE marketing machine is spewing out it's kind of hard not to get negative about it. From now on though if anyone ask me "How's it going?" my answer is "stable".

FAB,

How can I "remember" something I never knew to begin with? I did not know that. It's hardly the first time anyone here has questioned "current" median sales price, why didn't someone corrected me before?

make that (correct)

@Bap33,

No problem --we go OT here all the time. Remember the "Huh?" thread?

Time Saver

"Indicators of market stress are still largely absent"

John Karevoll and Marshall Prentice seem to have mastered the art of soothing language. John gets torqued off any time someone questions their market analysis. I've read articles where a financial journalist is quite literally getting their head bitten off with some stinging comments whenever they begin to flirt with the truth. Who does this guy think he is Neutron Jack for crissakes.

I can not affix my name to a report where reductions in sales have exceeded 20 and even 30% and still say that "Indicators of market stress are still largely absent". Sorry.

bc,

Randy H is the answer man when it comes to contending with programmed trading. I definitely see where he is coming from when he talks about "amplification". I'll just say that either we should do away with curbs or do away with programmed trading. You can't be "just a little bit pregnant". Either you are or you're not. Since (as Randy suggests) programmed trading is only getting worse, I suggest we do away with the curbs.

Median price in Santa Clara county rose 1K! Big deal.

Did you guys notice that higher priced counties (SF, Marin, San Mateo) are still going up while lower priced ones are going down (Solano, Contra Costa)?

The uppend-end of the economy is probably doing fine in the Bay Area. But credit-dependent markets seem to be hurting.

No problem –we go OT here all the time. Remember the “Huh?” thread?

Huh? The whole point of the Huh thread is that it is impossible to go OT.

DinOR,

I'm not sure you could do away with programmed trading. Unless we go back to all open outcry pits, the technogeist is out of the bottle.

In theory at least, this is just the kind of volatility that the big Hedge Funds are supposed to soak up. Maybe the market is just too large now, and we're suffering the results of essentially "endless resources" when it comes to feedback loops.

Zillow says my neighbor’s condo is worth $579k ($509k - $700k) and he just sold for nearly $699k. Don’t tell me Zillow’s numbers are generally too high.

Where do you live again? Is it near a beach?

Is Almaden Valley a nice place to live?

It seems prices of townhouses in South Bay are essentially unchanged from last year. I do see softness in them.

he lives in $anta Cruz, $anta Cruz is immune to any price pressure other than up. Ahhh Almaden Valley, what suckers tell themselves in order to believe they don't live in San Hosebag, "I live in Alamden" oh really what's your mailing address, SAN JOSE. If you put a dress on a pig what do you have? A dressed up pig.

I love the crap posted here, truly.

I have noticed that houses in ______ are still selling like hotcakes

What exactly is the point of posting this oh so tired diatribe at this stage of the game? here is what truly truly annoys me about the "housing market", there is no housing market, all a "housing market" does is let scum ruin things like community, family etc because the only thing they are interested in is living in a house long enough to flip it and make some green to buy more crap.

I have noticed that houses in ______ are still selling like hotcakes

I have noticed that houses in Hyperabad are still selling like hotcakes

I have noticed that houses in Hyperabad are still selling like hotcakes

Sorry to correct you, but the houses in Hyperabad are still selling like naan

Sorry to correct you, but the houses in Hyperabad are still selling like naan

LOL :lol: You are so X-tremely correct.

record housing stock in Merced County ….. Ranchwood has walked away from half-dones and slabs while some have began trying to sell just the lots.

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his _____ for ____ over asking.

there you have it,

tinyurl.com/m6y45

the most arrogant of the arrogant boomers has proclaimed a "soft landing" rest easy McDebtors your fauxquity is now permanent.

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his _____ for ____ over asking.

I have a friend in Merced that just sold his naan oven for $15 over asking.

My favorite quote from the MSNBC Bernanke article:

"On the issue of risky home mortgages, Bernanke pointed out that the Fed has issued some guidance for lenders and he underscored the importance of borrowers making sure they understand how interest-only and other nontraditional mortgages work.

“We’re not saying you shouldn’t make these loans. What we’re saying is that they be done the right way,” Bernanke told the banking conference."

Nothing at all wrong with high-pressure selling these loans to ignorant, uncreditworthy buyers, and then helping them to "hit the mark" on the income column. It's just that it should be done the "right way".

THE RIGHT WAY:
As you're about to sign away your life on that 50-year NAAVLP to buy your $1.2 million Inglewood crackhouse (a.k.a. "little slice of heaven"), make sure you do the following:

1. Assume the position.
2. Make sure your mortgage broker is wearing protection and has applied a liberal amount of K-Y.
3. Be sure to thank your broker as he slaps your dumb ass on the way out.

@newsfreak

:lol:

I see some really nice places in Almaden but the summers are too warm for me. I have slept or tried to sleep there and it’s difficult.

No A/C?

But for certain people it’s all the rage, Almaden schools are rated highly.

Is it better than Cupertino?

Capitola is a nice place. I remember going to a restaurant with a cute cable car (slanted elevator?). The lobster tail was pretty good.

hm, if the home owner pays an ARM they cannot afford to turn on the A/C

Wait until they have to pay an ARM and a leg. :)

Now you probably believe that I have no intention to move, hm?

Why would you want to move?

I used to go there for Saturday lunch but I stopped liking their (evening) kitchen. Too many bad experiences and I am certainly not even a food connoisseur.

Yes, there are better places. But their garden is pretty nice.

I think we all know which ethnic groups pay attention to that. I’m not with them. I believe the childrens’ well doing depends on how much time the parents spend with them. If that part is right, they can excel in an “average” school.

Very true. The school needs to be relatively free of bad elements though.

Finally, I breathe a sigh of relief. Not a huge sigh, but this is the news I have been waiting for.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/14612053.htm

The median dropped month to month, AND it was reported as such !

I know about the perils of using statistics, but people use the median price as a gauge. Anything negative about this gauge, I will take it. Such news goes a long way in shaping psychology, which is far more important than numbers.

I hope the trend continues. Honestly, I did not expect it to start so early. If this is what's happening in spring, what will happen in fall ?

@newsfreak,

Actually, the picture of realtor-dude is from a short indy-film "The realtor":
The links for the film are bad, but you can still watch the trailer:

http://www.zeroonerealty.com/

LILL,

We discussed Shiller's graph a few threads back. It does not show any crash at all after 1940.

There is certainly a possibility that we have reached a new level of ownership premium our society is willing to pay. The ratio of housing costs to income may have changed forever. Not too long ago, people used to buy stocks for their dividends. Now they buy it because they think someone else will buy from them at a higher price. Things change.

From some reports I read a few days ago, home prices in UK and Australia haven't exactly crashed. Who knows what will happen in US ? I am willing to take the risk of that happening. Because I think the probability is low. This is not an inflation in asset priceses alone. Their is a credit bubble. I am betting on it to burst. If I am wrong so be it.

@LILLL,

I wouldn't worry too much about us having reached a new "permanently high plateau". For starters, when housing spiked up around 1940, it wasn't really reaching a "new" plateau, it was simply returning to about where prices were prior to 1916, when they nose-dived for the next 20+ years.

Now, I'll admit there are cases in history when true "paradigm shifts" really occured, which fundamentally shifted macro-economic forces and permanently altered long-prevailing economic relationships. Good examples would be the invention of the printing press (and resulting rise in literacy among general population) which made the Renaissance possible, the Industrial Revolution of the 17th & 18th centuries, the rapid urbanization/industrialization of the 20th century & shift away from farm-based communities, etc.

Even so, these truly macro shifts are relatively rare, don't take place overnight, nor are immediately recognized as such until long after they've begun. I've seen little evidence to credibly explain WHY such a shift is taking place in housing today (and over such a short period). All the perma-bulls/RE shills have had to offer thus far is the same tired, worn-out fill-in-the ____ talking points that we routinely lampoon here for sport.

The closest relatively "new" quasi-secular developments I can see which could account for at least some of the rise in housing prices --relative to other asset classes-- are:

1. Rise of NIMBYism, Urban Boundary Limits (UBLs), which are very popular in CA & OR, and pseudo-environmental anti-development laws. These are measurably constraining supply and artificially raising the cost of what new housing does get built.

2. Shift in federal tax codes since 1996, heavily favoring RE investment/speculation over other assets. $250/500K capital gains exemption, mtg. interest deduction on 2nd homes, 1031 exchange, etc.

3. The rise of GSEs and MBSs/CMOs in providing unprecedented levels of mortgage liquidity and risk underwriting (shifting loan default risk from lenders to FCBs and private investors).

Precisely how much these "new" developments are contributing to the run-up in prices, and (more importantly) exactly how "permanent" they will be remains to be seen.

LILL,

To me, anyone who buys a house with ARM, or I/O is speculating. It is not investing, it is not for "settling down", it is not for buying a "home". They are expecting to various degrees

1. Continuous rise in asset prices.
2. Interest rates being lower when the reset happens.
3. Their income being higher than what it is now.

The first 2 are nothing but speculation. The first one is not happening anymore. Second one is already wrong.

The only way to save this bubble is wage inflation. How likely is that to happen ? Even if BB prints money like mad, the resulting inflation may not translate into wage inflation.

I am keeping a watch on wages. That is more important than the rents. Just because rent went up by 10%, a person may not be willing to take on a huge debt. But if salary goes up by 10% or more, it's a different story.