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What if we are wrong?


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2006 May 26, 3:55am   11,512 views  122 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Pilots of commercial airplanes must constant look for mechanical problems and other variables that might jeopardize the safety of the flight. They do this even though commercial flying is statistically safe. They do this even they trust their skills (rightfully so).

At this point, the "housing star" appears to be in "retrograde". We have always thought that a crash is the next step. How will this play out? Will this "star" fall out of the sky? Or will it continue its progress after a "brief" pause?

We must be vigilant. We must not be fearful of the prospect of being wrong. We must react to every change.

God bless.

#housing

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98   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 12:29pm  

Curious Cat, Rates are still low, but prices are very high. With higher or lower rates the direction for home prices will be down. Lower rates will mitigate the decline a little... but only a little.

99   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:32pm  

Zephyr, does your Mommy eat too much corn also?

Homeownership rate, 2000

I'm sorry you hermaphrodite fucking moron, did you not fucking see 2000?

100   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:36pm  

Dear WoopAss, oddly enough that is the very same address where I was balls deep in your mom's ass. You really really have to tell her to eat less corn.

Hey Zephyr do you pitch or hit with the other troll? Just Curious. Man you two are so super savvy, why waste your time here? I mean with all the money to me made why bother typing a few tid bits of your financial prowess here? Whoops gotta go, seems your Mom just had a corn dog and needs me to dislodge it from her colon.

101   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:37pm  

tinyurl.com/flrz5

Median home value: $835,000
Median family income: $88,450
Median home value to median family income: 9.4

102   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:38pm  

tinyurl.com/fehrd

103   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:38pm  

tinyurl.com/l66z3

104   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:39pm  

tinyurl.com/f2mlq

105   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:40pm  

tinyurl.com/fh93a

106   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:40pm  

oh shit gotta go, your mom is all lubed up again. But seriously, you have to tell her to eat less corn.

107   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:43pm  

so sorry maggots, one more

tinyurl.com/jk7dr

hey I have an excellent million dollar idea, why don't you partner with ha ha and get a troll only blog? Could be fun for you fucking maggots. Let me guess, no friends, small cocks, and not a lot of female companionship?

108   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 12:44pm  

Surfer-x, Glad to see you have a useful purpose in life. Good substitution for X-lax. But perhaps you should expand your marketing. Explain to the world how you are superior to x-lax... if in fact you are.

109   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 12:44pm  

Lower rates will mitigate the decline a little… but only a little.

Let me guess, 5'8" or so?

110   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 12:46pm  

One difference I see is that with X-lax all the shit comes out from only one end.

111   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 12:58pm  

Surfer-x, My dog ate too much corn tonight. Can you come over?

112   astrid   2006 May 27, 1:01pm  

I don't know about Californianisms, but howabout "smucker" and "pritch"?

example:

Look at that below average height smucker and his horse faced pritch in their H3.

113   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 1:03pm  

We could have a couple brewskis afterwards... Heinekin, of course.

114   astrid   2006 May 27, 1:07pm  

Bap33,

You're right, it was wrong of me to mess with those classics. :oops:

115   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 2:05pm  

Surfer-x, My dog ate too much corn tonight. Can you come over?

Let me guess, your German Sheppard is fucking your Mom and you're selling tickets on craigslist to offset your RE losses?

If so, count me in!

We're having a get together tomorrow, perhaps your Mom and your German Sheppard can stop by for the entertainment.

116   Zephyr   2006 May 27, 2:28pm  

Surfer-x, I already counted you in.

117   Randy H   2006 May 27, 2:34pm  

Robert Cote'

theta only applies if there is only one game to play. I guess if eventual ownership is the given end state you are correct but substituting luxury hotel stays, exotic vactions, etc. for the joys of ownership can be considered compensation can it not?

Like I said, it depends upon each person's own situation and definition of utility. For some, surely luxury hotel stays substitute for home ownership; for others, not. Regardless, theta is a factor for everyone whether they choose to ignore it or not.

118   astrid   2006 May 27, 4:01pm  

Robert Cote,

I just realized that I've been pretty rude to ignore acknowledging your well thought out answers and your questions (got momentarily dazed and confused by the corn based exchange above):

"I ask a few leading questions: Is energy going to get cheaper relative to technology? Do cities have any nonpolitical inherent advantages? What do we call cities with no competitive advantage? Detroit, Buffalo, Rochester. To answer one question, is transit a nonpolitical entity?"

To reply, I'd say that there are definite urban planning opportunities if energy prices go up by a substantial amount and stays there. New York and Tokyo has managed higher density and lower consumption than suburbanites without becoming undesireable. Higher densities afforded by urban centers offer convenience, abundance of various jobs, high quality entertainment and food options. Given the high prices paid for urban center housing versus suburban housing, it shows that some people definitely have preferences for living in urban centers. For some people, higher gas prices or the wear of long commutes may finally tip the balance in favor of high density urban housing.

The convenience and energy efficiency aspect of the urban centers will be enhanced when energy prices go up. Of course, technology may catch up quickly enough to maintain the American lifestyle without too many visible changes - but I don't think a transition to a higher commodity price will be painless. A couple hybrid vehicles will not reduce gas consumption sufficiently to deal with the huge stock of pre-existing gas guzzlers and McMansions, which will be almost impossible to retrofit. There will be an adjustment curve while we wait for the existing gas-guzzlers to die out, just as was the case in the seventies.

Your examples of decaying urban centers point to a wider decay of the entire metropolitan area surrounding them. The suburbs of Detroit and Buffalo are also decaying, albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, SF and NYC centers command a premium over their suburbs. A lot depends on the quality of local schools, safety, and amenities. People have lived in cities for 5,000 years. Medium density suburbs are a much more recent phenomena and may well be a post-WWII aberration.

Besides, I think suburban lawns are overrated. The Chinese gardened for thousands of years with no lawn. I think it's all a matter of cultural conditioning.

119   surfer-x   2006 May 27, 4:04pm  

Athena, not to be overly vulgar but have you ever eaten corn? What happens say 8-12hrs later? Wow, I ate corn. Now imagine you are a troll who's Mom I am having let’s say very SF man/man relations with, but I'm Surfer-X and she's Zephyr's mom. And I see corn on my....well.... you get the point.

120   Michael Holliday   2006 May 27, 10:36pm  

Listing Price Selling Price
$2,450,000 $2,565,000

Did you see that stucco, faux SF McMansion?

What a joke!

I'd rather slap the $2.5M in T-Bills at 5%, take my $100K after tax income and rent a room in Santa Cruz, kick back on the beach with a Dos Equis or two, and play some drums.

121   Randy H   2006 May 28, 12:03am  

To answer one question, is transit a nonpolitical entity?

Only in the fantasy land that the denizens of "The Futurist" inhabit. Transit, including freight, public and personal locomotion, are a major infrastructure backbone and represent one of the most significant variable sets in the US economic structure. Attempts to prove the contrary -- I invoke a "proof" on "The Futurist" that high oil prices would be good for the US -- are little more than wishful thinking and errant logic.

If someone invents practical solar cars, maybe all this will change. But in a consumer economy, transit and transport are king.

122   surfer-x   2006 May 28, 6:16am  

Sorry Surfer-x for your frustration in not participating in the biggest recent wealth creation ever.

You’re right, the market is really crashing. It’s crashing so hard that this home just closed for $105,000 over asking. Duhhhhh.

http://www.sfarmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Sanfrancisco&PRGNAME=MLSLogin&ARGUMENTS=-ASL,-AL,-A,-N188960,-ACP

I'm sorry asshole the house you are spewing shit about sold in 2004 for $2260048. Ok so the maggot that bought it used an option ARM, their piti payment was ~ 10K/month=$240000 in 2 years. Sold in 2006 for $2565000. Wow what an amazing wealth creation mechanism. $2260048 +$240000=$2500048. So they are what 60K ahead? Whoops, 6% to realtwhore,$150002. Hmmm, excellent investment, but hey they only lost $90K. Seems like an excellent investment to me.

Hey your Mom was amazing last night, nevermind about the corn, tell her I didn't notice it once i was in her colon.

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