patrick.net

Bap33 says

No questions about how to pay for Obamacare

"The whole package will cost roughly $940 billion over 10 years to provide expanded insurance coverage, according to CBO."

vs

"Combined, extending the Bush tax cuts would cost about $3 trillion over 10 years; limiting the tax cuts to middle-income households would lower this cost by about $700 billion. "

Hey, we just paid for 75% of the cost of providing health insurance to nearly everyone! Awesome, huh!

Bap33 says

No questions about unemployment.

What questions do you have? Did you expect the good times of 2005-2006 to return already? What don't you understand about the one trillion dollar per year bubble debt sector blowing up in 2008?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

Bap33 says

No questions about the treatment of Arizona voters

ah another outrage-du-jour from the Republican media machine. Are Arizona voters being rounded up in front loaders Soylent Green style?

dhmartens says

I am for abolishing the senate because it has nothing to do with democracy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhzVIHnfp50

cut from this blog:

“All congressional power should rest with the House of Representatives. The Senate is simply infuriating.
It is quintessentially anti-democratic because it provides EXTREME misrepresentation of the American people.
All men are created equal flies right out the fucking window in that hall of madness. 300,000 people from Wyoming get the same representation as 17 million people in Texas or 32 million people in California.”

And just think, the senate was supposed to be the lukewarm water to temper the radicalism of the masses in the house. Funny how things work out.

pkowen says

Indeed. I agree.

I agree too. If this nation is so stupid as to elect a Republican Congress & President again, we deserve all the destruction they so love to create.

Honest Abe says

Government interventionism ultimately leads to socialism. Socialism leads to tyranny.

What about Norway? Most socialized economy I'm aware of, per-capita GDP tops for an actual non tax-haven nation:

1 Liechtenstein $122,100
2 Qatar $119,500
3 Luxembourg $79,600
4 Bermuda $69,900
5 Norway $57,400
6 Jersey $57,000
7 Kuwait $52,800
8 Singapore $52,200
9 Brunei $51,200
10 Faroe Islands $48,200
11 United States $46,000

How does this fact not penetrate your ideological defense barriers? Why do you avoid it?

Are the Norwegians not free? Does their socialized systems work well for them? Are they not happy?

Obviously you think socialism is superior to anything else. That would make you a socialist, whether you admit it or not.

Troy Troy Troy ... must you attack personally? As I said, the media has not held Barry and the leftisits to any firm public scrutiny. I just gave a few easy examples. The Arizona situation is a particularly disgusting act by Lord Barry and Co. If 'ol GeeDub or Ahhnuld had done something like that when Gavin and the Deviant Army pulled their junk in Frisco, man oh man, the media would have went nutz-o (say "nutz-o" like Fonzie for the full effect). The liberal bias in media is too obvious to ignore. No need to attack me personally though, I aint in the media.

Honest Abe says

Obviously you think socialism is superior to anything else. That would make you a socialist, whether you admit it or not.

I call myself a "left-libertarian", actually. I prefer going with policies that work best, the labels you wish to apply are meaningless and transparent attempts at character assassination.

The libertarians up in Alaska have collected to themselves a $36B SWF on the model of Norway's. Norway has $90,000 per capita, Alaska's is $50,000 per capita of state-directed wealth confiscation.

http://www.apfc.org/home/Content/home/index.cfm

The horror!

^ Norway comes close in several important areas. Their state-owned oil exploration company allows them to enforce their 80% severance tax. Australia just lost their attempt at 40% severance tax regime due to the lack of a state-owned capacity willing and able to take up the slack that would be caused by multinationals like Rio Tinto taking their toys somewhere else.

Also Norway has a fully nationalized banking system last I checked, and telecoms too AFAIK. I do not oppose these, though the history of telecom and government control is not that encouraging.

The questions you demand answered are senseless. Find better questions.

Except for the AZ thing. I admit I have no fucking idea what you want the media watchdogs to do on that.

Boehner is willing to budge, judging from his statements. If the Democrats can get the House to back extending just middle and lower income cuts, with Boehner and a few other notables working with them or finding a compromise, there will be a lot of pressure on the Senate. Working something out with Boehner, who is generally popular across the strata of the Republican party, would be the key.

ahasuerus99 says

Boehner is willing to budge

Boehner and the present Republican House minority is irrelevant, until January at least.

I'm pretty sure democrats won't budge on this one. It's a fantastic voter generator for them! If the Republicans let it expire for everyone, they're evil, and it will be EASY to spin it that way. If they don't vote it in quickly, it's going to generate a great stump speech topic for the democrats. The republicans can say all they want about how it was unfair that not everyone benefited from it, but in the end, the majority of voters will have been hurt by their actions.

pkennedy says

The republicans can say all they want about how it was unfair that not everyone benefited from it, but in the end, the majority of voters will have been hurt by their actions.

The Republicans and DINOs in the Senate can say they held on tax cuts for all. If history is any guide the Dems will cave on this and we'll add another trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

Welcome to Japan. 日本にようこそ。

@Troy

I don't think they'll cave this time around. Eventually it will get passed. The Republicans can say whatever they want, but the Dems can come back with "You should have voted to help the average person out, and bickered about the last 1% of people LATER!"

This will definitely be something worth watching, to see if they can stick together as a party on this one. I'm pretty sure Obama will hold onto it and block anything useless from coming through.

shrekgrinch says

The job of the Opposition Party is to Oppose. Look it up.

Wow. The Party of No is actually the Party of Bullshit. Who knew???

shrekgrinch says

And, budget reconciliation is immune to filibusters

Only if the bills a) don't increase the deficit or b) sunset in 10 years.

shrekgrinch says

WTF: pkowen NOT says

All men are created equal flies right out the fucking window in that hall of madness.

Show us all where in the Constitution it says ‘all men are created equal’.
Hey! I got a really cool mortgage I’d like to sign you up for! I mean, you seem to KNOW all kinds of things but really don’t, so you’ll just have to trust me. Your ignorance is not an issue!

Not sure how I got quoted but I didn't post the above.

shrekgrinch says

Show us all where in the Constitution it says ‘all men are created equal’.

Unfortunately, Madison's Virginia Plan did not make it into the Constitution. One of the central failures of the Framers that is biting us in the ass today.

pkennedy says

I’m pretty sure Obama will hold onto it and block anything useless from coming through.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/09/obama-refuses-to-say-hed-_n_710279.html

It really paid to go all in during that $700 phase circa 2008. I recall constantly getting ridiculed on patrick.net for buying gold at $720 - $800 and Silver at $10 - $14. Beyond that...some of those miners that posted 500% weren't bad either. It's going to be fun watching everyone else pile into gold while I sell.

What scenario could you drum up where gold slides down to 1000? That doesn't even sound possible

Good time to sell if you bought low. Or at least sell enough to get back your original investment adjusted for inflation.

If gold crashed it wouldn't hurt as much given you got your original investment back. If it doesn't than you can laugh all the way to bank, either way you win!

I'd love to have another post from OO, who used to post on the old school threads. He was hardcore: Perth Mint certificates in $100k increments. Sigh, I got stopped out of my GLD and AU sub $900...

In regards to funds going from the haves to the have nots, this is not exactly accurate. It's more like the have littles being squeezed to fund the have lots and the have nots. When you look really closely, the most money winds up in the hands of the have almost everythings. Even the money going to the have nots winds up in the top tiers of society. Just think about Heath insurance. The current insurance system was started by a physician because he found it difficult to make a living from pay as you go patients. The insurance company became blue cross. So for this added layer we all pay, and isn't that the point after all- find every way possible to transfer the fruits of peoples hard work to the top?

Armando148 says

Good time to sell if you bought low. Or at least sell enough to get back your original investment adjusted for inflation.
If gold crashed it wouldn’t hurt as much given you got your original investment back. If it doesn’t than you can laugh all the way to bank, either way you win!

This is an awful time to sell. Gold is on the cusp of going parabolic and the dollar is poised to drop off the side of the cliff the second interest rates rise.

guys,

what do you suppose could happen if gold "parabolic?"?

Maybe, it will become impractical to sell the physical bullion if this were to happen. Someone I know inquired about selling a gold bar, the buyer said he'd have to get an assay from someone that the buyer approved of, and he'd have to pay for the assay. If it comes to that, it may be difficult to avoid a 1099 form or some such.

I am not opposed to using gold as a money substitute, maybe I have even done so myself, and if I did, I would think about the different possibilities of "golden handcuffs".

Nomo, time will tell which of us is right. I stand by my statements. You always seem retaliate with your little negative barbs. Haha, so be it. We'll see who is right.

Moderate (right of center) republicans are being replaced by extreme right wing Tea Party candidates. Let's see, before Obama, the only democrat president since 1980 was Clinton who ultimately was a good republican president.

In a way it's understandable that some of the right wing extremist whackos on this site don't even know what democratic policy is about. All they really know about it is the huge well funded propaganda they have heard preventing it's existence since the seventies.

I've been under the assumption that Abe adnd Ray are very old conservatives married to the political bitterness that goes way back to Vietnam or earlier. But I think that might be wrong. Maybe they are younger and have only been adults since Reagan or after. It would explain a lot.

I am the opposite of an expert in 1930s history, but I think the record of FDR's intervention is a little more mixed than that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultural_Adjustment_Act

The problem with just "printing" is that it is a bandaid on a bigger problem.

in the SFH market rentals are few and far between

The California average for non OO purchases during the boom was 25-30%. For La Jolla I would expect this to be a LOT less, with most rentals coming from a desire to preserve the Prop 13 valuation while cashing in on the rental value. (This is entirely a non-scientific guess however).

According to:

http://www.movoto.com/neighborhood/ca/la-jolla/92037.htm

La Jolla has a population of 44,000, a total household count of 17,000 or so, and 30% rentals.

5% rental turnover per month would give us over 200 rentals available at any given time.

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=la+jolla

matches that I guess.

how is it that rents can be tied to purchase price when there is essentially no rental market and no prospective landlord purchases to drive pricing

at the end of the day all markets compete with each other. Clearly La Jolla is one of the nation's foremost "terminal neighborhoods" -- in the top 100 at least -- so it has that going for it.

Rents provide a floor for housing, but some areas will stay above that floor. Depends on the larger macro situation I think, people expect this decade to balloon out like every previous decade has since the 1960s. But we're not even through the first year of the 2010s, who the hell knows what's going to happen.

Of course not! But there are psychological valuations, where one ponders "Hmmmm Pay $3500 in mortgage, tax and insurance, "OR" pay $1900 Rent?".

That's gotta be a deal killer for many...

There are no ties, just basic fundamental reality. And the Reality is, Americans only Wish they were as Rich as they thought they were in 2000-2007. So unless we elect a president that can Crap gold bricks and will dole them out to everyone. We're stuck with the reality that a lower end "UP SCALE" house, starts at 160-225, and Mc Mansions aren't worth a penny over 250K, and modest Burbdale community homes are only worth $79-130K, and Condos! 35K for a 1br for Grandma to retire in, and 120-200K for the more upscale Condos on the beach.

There's less than 10% of American population that can afford a housing market outside of this structure. It's pretty much the same structure we've been in since the late 80's.

And let's face it, while Minimum wage may have risen since then, the basic Middle Class wages have not.

"WAGES" is what "Real Estate" is really tied to, both fundamentally and philosophically.

Tenouncetrout says

So unless we elect a president that can Crap gold bricks and will dole them out to everyone

If that were to happen, then those yellow pieces of metal would be completely worthless. Gold prices are driven up by fear, not the true inherent value of the yellow commodity. Once that commodity is as prevalent as sand, then the fear mongers will find another more rare commodity to drive up in price.

In order to artificially inflate the prices which theoretically raised the profits for farmers. My point being, YOUR reason the crops were “rotting in the fields while people in the cities starved” isn’t even close as to WHY they were rotting in the fields. But don’t let the facts interfere with your silly nonsense. Incidentally, did you know the Agricultural Adjustment Act was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court? Interesting, don't you think?

Read my post Duckie Dude, I already stated the why. And thanks for the offer to "teach" me "something," but based on your past performances, I'll skip that class. LOL!

There's an easy answer to your question, just go to City-data.com. For example:
http://www.city-data.com/housing/houses-Walnut-Creek-California.html

Scroll down the report and one sees that Walnut Creek has very low rental occupied versus owner (depending on unit type, but certainly SFR). I couldn't get La Jolla to come up apart from greater San Diego, is it actually a City or just a named place? If you use your zip code you can find it.

You make a good point, and it is one of the few compelling arguments for prices holding up in 'fortress' areas. The debate for me is in the boundary of the fortress.

I should add that in my zip, SFR rentals amount to less than 10%. I am one of those and pay rent at about 1/2 (or less) the cost of carrying a standard fixed 30 yr mortgage at 5% with 20% down.

My point is that they are *not* tied to rents any more, but should be, and one day will be again.

pkowen above is saving a boatload of money exactly because the price is disconnected from the rent.

pkowen did not account for mortgage/property tax deduction (which is pretty significant for buying a home in places like Walnut Creek. A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage) Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently.

From my experience, a typical buyer in Walnut Creek, Lafayette can utilize anywhere from 30-40% in mortgage interest and property tax deduction, a buyer in Concord and Antioch is 0-20%. That makes up for a bulk of the rent/buy variation between the more expensive place.

If you put this in a social science context, how many 200K households live and especially buys as a primary in Concord vs. Lafayette? If it is such a great deal, wouldn't all the 200K household move to Concord too realizing all the "value"?

shrekgrinch says

Yeah, I sure don’t — from as broad a tax base as possible and fairly, too. The top 10% income earners already supply 70% of income tax revenues to the Feds as it is. That’s not a ‘broad tax base’ nor is it fair.

That would be fine if the wealth was broadly distributed as well. But when the top 10% own 95% of the wealth, it's hard to have a broad tax base...

Nomograph says

theoakman says

This is an awful time to sell. Gold is on the cusp of going parabolic and the dollar is poised to drop off the side of the cliff the second interest rates rise.

The goldbug’s fatal flaw: they can never bring themselves to do a little profit-taking

Maybe you missed the part above where I said how fun it's going to be to sell it to all the suckers who will be the last ones in the door. Once Gold goes parabolic, I'll start selling. This has been a healthy bull run with plenty of pullbacks to prevent it from getting out of hand so far. I don't really need to do any profit taking. I quintupled my net wealth in the past 3 years. Gold would have to fall down to about $200 an oz and someone would have to liquidate my bank account to get me back to square one.

shrekgrinch says

Tenouncetrout says

“WAGES” is what “Real Estate” is really tied to, both fundamentally and philosophically

Funny, all these years I thought it was mostly tied to D-E-B-T.

Wages _should_ be the main determinant of house prices (as they are of rents) but very risky lending resulted in prices far above what wages will actually support. So you're both right.