patrick.net

Newsfreak,
In my opinion, skilled trade is just like corporate work: Some kinds of work pays more than others. I'm a graphic designer, and since there is still a glut of them from the dot-com, the wages are just OK. Not great, and definantly not in line with costs of living here in CA.
On the other hand, when I was a tool salesman, I knew a lot of guys who worked as skilled wood carpenters making things like front gates for wealthy people's homes, and charged a minumum of 100k per gate. I also knew housepainters that did really well. ( again painting the homes of the wealthy).
Mechanics do pretty well too. I've thought about getting my ASE certification because you START at 60-65k as a mechanic at a dealership and upwards to 100k. Even my tiny little lawn mower repair business pays decently for what little I do of it. Change the oil and sharpen the blade for $40. That takes me 20 minutes.
I'd say that right now, carpentry for people that work under a large company is probably the worst place to be. You're right: day workers from Mexico will work all day long for $10 a hour. They used to stand outside our store and wait around for contractors to pick them up. What's more is that a lot of these guys are good. They're used to building houses with hand saws, hammers, and chisels. Not power tools.
I think skilled mabor will make a comeback: everyone told their kids to go to college. Now there's hardly anyone left who can repair or make anything. This weekend I had to go all the way out to El cerrito to get parts for a lawn mower because the shop near my houe closed. NOBODY sells engine parts anymore. This guy had people waiting out the door. So the opportunity is out there. You just have to study the market like any other.

Newsfreak,
When I was in college, I was the repairman at a small hardware store. I learned how to glaze windows, screen screen doors and storm windows, sharpen knives, cut blinds, repair lamps, vaccum cleaners, toasters, and other small appliances. We charged something like $15-20 a screen, $50 a window, $45 a lawn mower, and $3 per knife. Little easy jobs that raked in BIG bucks. The boss was a cheap bastard and paid me $9 an hour while he owned a block of brownstones in Boston, a ski house up north, and sent his kids to private school. I always figured that someday, if things ever got super-bad, I could fall back on some of these skills. The only problem is that you only see this kind of service in very affluent places. Middle class people will not pay $30 for a screen. I don't blame them. But someone that makes the big bucks doesn't think twice. So in reality, I'd still be in the upside down cost of living equation if I did this.

There's this old hardware store down the street from us. It has absolutly everything you could possibly imagine. After working in hardware store for 7 years, I know what to look for. They have things like Mogle bases, loose panes of glass, oven wire, oven gaskets, socket adaptors, class A, B, and E screws and bolts, stainless hardware, and on and on. We live within 2 blocks of the place. There has been many times when I'm repairing a client's mower and I had to fabricate a piece for it, and this hardware store saves me every time. I've thought that maybe someday I might open my own hardware store complete with a wood floor, potbelly stove, cracker barrel with a checkerboard with rocking chairs, and of course- endless rows of loose nuts, bolts, light bulbs,and paintbrushes. People like old places. A old-fashioned hardware store tha also gave people a place to talk to each other would be a hit, especially since the Home Depots offer none of that. again.. I think this would only work in a wealthy area, but perhaos it would be sucessful enough to hold it's own merit. and pay me enough to stay.

newsfreak,

It's been my experience that most contractors live off of borrowed money. They are part of the crowd I call "sophisticated debtors". They know how to work the system. They're not so much experts at construction as they are experts at borrowing. Fret not. Builders in our area are already paying 8% and giving up HALF of the profits to their lenders. First the motor home goes then the place at the lake. These guys live large but just before the last "up scale" home goes up they are broke! And they all go broke eventually. Many know it's all contrived and don't care. Many times you'll see luxury homes half built and wonder why doesn't the builder finish it so he can get paid? Ahem, he already did.

Dinor,
On my way to work every day, I pass by brand new Ford dually truck after another: $47,000 trucks that suck down $150 a week in gas. Some contractors definantly live large in more ways than one.

WW2,

We have them in droves up here in Oregon. I don't mind really. It's when these guys that haven't worn a nail apron in years (can no longer negotiate beer gut) and "need" a 1 Ton Dualie to "check" the job site! They're a dime a dozen and not one orange apron wearing bot at Home Depot wasn't a "successful contractor" at one time. My father did remodeling for the well to do in Chicago for years from his station wagon. Straight Six, three on the tree. I guess he had the good sense to have the supplier deliver to the job site.

SFWoman Says:

I don’t see anything wrong with working when you are older. You get to see people, interact with others, get out of the house.

The problem is when you are FORCED to work b/c of economic circumstances, not b/c you WANT to work to keep active, interact, etc.

George,

Because FL seems to be the epicenter for the correction your degree of comfort has got to be higher. Here on the west coast we are just now thinking this is another garden variety hangover and are fumbling for some aspirin. (We haven't looked out in the driveway yet so we're not aware of the car's condition!) That realization may not come until after that "booze snooze" on the couch. While you are already confronting "the uglies" we are apparently of the impression that just a little more sleep will set everything right. Except in Sacramento.

*Having long since grown up Mr. DinOR does not advocate drinking and driving!

skibum,

Welcome back! Much for you to get caught up on! Sentiment has taken a turn for the worse in your absence. MSM now churns out daily articles on the HB and it seems that stories about FB's sell enough papers to offset realtors "price reduced" listings. PIMCO's Exec. VP is now a renter. (But they're so damn bearish anyway).

I don't feel sorry for people who "have" to work when they are elderly. A lot of them don't really "have" to work.

My in-laws are both in their 80's, and they survive exclusively on Social Security. And they hardly collect any benefits, because my father-in-law retired at 62 and my mother-in-law only gets like $250 per month since she only worked in the US for about a year back in the 60's.

We help them out, paying all of their property taxes, phone bill, utilities, DirectTV, etc., and take care of all home and car repairs. I may buy the FIL a new car if the old '88 Taurus finally give up the ghost. But if they had to go it alone, they could handle these expenses too.

Their lives are not at all miserable. They go to church every day, have a social life, and basically enjoy relaxing in their old age.

You don't need a lot of money to enjoy retirement. I know that if my house was paid for, I could survive on the maximum benefit of @$1900/month without any difficulty. And married couples get even more.

You don't need an RV or an expensive golf club membership to enjoy retirement. Heck, by the time you are in your late 80's and 90's its often hard just to get into and out of the car, the last thing you want to do is fly somewhere.

There is no reason why someone cannot have an okay retirement on Social Security. Sure, retirement would be nicer if you could buy a Cadillac every couple of years and eat at fancy restaurants every week, but it is hardly necessary.

DinOR Says:

Welcome back! Much for you to get caught up on! Sentiment has taken a turn for the worse in your absence. MSM now churns out daily articles on the HB and it seems that stories about FB’s sell enough papers to offset realtors “price reduced” listings. PIMCO’s Exec. VP is now a renter. (But they’re so damn bearish anyway).

Thanks. I think what you really mean is sentiment has turned (slightly) more realistic. The BB speech and market response were fun to watch, too (especially if you're not underdiversified). It is interesting to me that with all these overt signs that the correction is starting to accelerate some of the faithful here are doubting whether or not a correction is indeed coming. It's just a matter of time...

RE: working into retirement, there's an annoying sense of entitlement from many retirees or soon-to-be retirees. Social Security, pension plans, our health care insurance system and the like were designed for a population that doesn't live much past 70 years old. Hence, retiring in your 60's led to no more than 10 years of retirement. Nowadays, with life expectency pushing or beyond 80 years, that's at least double the retirement time. Add to that the baby boomer demographics and the lack of retirement planning, and it's going to get ugly.

Zephyr Said:

Do not be depressed. Studies like this have been underestimating the future since before any of us were born. 30 years ago they told us there would be no more oil by now, that starvation and disease would cause a world crisis by now, that our economy would crash long ago.

What this study also fails to adequately include is the effect of the boomers on the labor markets during their working life. So many workers depress wages… for everyone. As the boomers retire a labor shortage will develop and real wages will climb faster than before.

I wouldn't be too sure about this, given the "perfect storm" preventing most Gen-Xers from moving into management (see Randy H's execellent 7:14am post) and the likely reality that many Boomers --especially late Boomers-- are going to have to work well into their golden years (see Newsfreak's 7:06 am post), thus tying up many of those plum openings that would otherwise go to Gen-X or Gen-Y workers.

I recall reading an article in Time (or Newsweek?) just as I was graduating from college 15 years ago that said my generation was going to have it better than any that came before it --including the Boomers. The author was convinced of this, because of this so-called future "labor shortage" caused by there being so few in my generation to take the place of retiring Boomers. We were all supposed to be fabulously wealthy and sought after by the time we reached 30.

Guess that prediction didn't turn out so well, did it? Nor do I expect Zephyr's re-hashed version of it to turn out to be broadly true, either --excepting a few Google-aire type lottery winners, of course.

Yes, better technology lead to greater productivity, and we have long been shifting from a mainly producer/industrial economy to service economy for some time now. However, I don't quite buy the line that all or most of those productivity gains are due to better technology. A lot of the productivity gains over the past 30 years have been due to working-class people simply working HARDER and LONGER for less pay). I also don't buy that a lot of these productivity gains actually get returned to workers in the form of pay and benefits. As Randy H already pointed out, the top 10-15% are getting fabulously wealthy, while the bottom 85% are treading water or losing ground.

tannenbaum Says:

Perhaps, but after spending your entire adult working life paying into these systems - SS and Medicare - one would at least logically hope to see something from it. If I’m not going to receive any of these benefits in 30 years then I shouldn’t have to pay into them now!!

Well, wouldn't that be great, if we could elect not to contribute to SS or FICA and pocket the $$ instead? For anyone later than the Boomer generation, that would be advantageous, since we're not likely to see any return from that "investment," given a bankrupt system.

Another problem with the "retiring Boomers = labor shortage & windfall for Gen-X/Y" theory is the workers : retirees ratio. Right now it's something like 3 workers : 1 retiree (mostly WWII & Silent gen). In 20 years it'll be 1.5 : 1.

Think your payroll taxes & FICA (S.S. & Medicare) are high now? Just wait til 2026.

Do not be depressed. Studies like this have been underestimating the future since before any of us were born. 30 years ago they told us there would be no more oil by now, that starvation and disease would cause a world crisis by now, that our economy would crash long ago.

There soon won't be any more oil....So they were off a few years!

Sounds like 5 years ago:

bubblehead >
The bubble is going to break in about a year and all property prices will crash.

housing bull >
Nonsense, it is different this time. Real estate will just keep going up, not because the fundamentals are there, but because I say so!

2 years later:

housing bull >
What bubble? There's no bubble! Look at the fool who said that real estate was going to crash last year and it appreciated another 60% instead.

bubblehead >
No one can predict the exact date that the bubble will crash. My prediction of a housing crash will happen, possibly next year.

2 years later:
housing bull >
Look I gave you another 2 years. Real estate only goes up.

bubblehead >
I'm not making anymore predictions, but I'm sticking to my guns that RE is going to crash!

It is now june of 2006:
Housing bull is in denial thinking that somehow the real estate market will get going again, but it's never going to happen. Housing bull has nothing to say....
Bubblehead's prediction is off by several years but it did happen. The bubble has popped and the crash is under way.

"Go back to 1493 if you don’t like financial accounting."

Randy H -- Actually, I enjoyed reading your Accounting 101 posts today. Glad you took the time. You did a good job. But as for 1493 -- just one question -- if I go back to that, does that mean I get to see you in a chastity belt with one of those cool metal pee tubes installed in the front? Those are cool!

I recall reading an article in Time (or Newsweek?) just as I was graduating from college 15 years ago that said my generation was going to have it better than any that came before it –including the Boomers. The author was convinced of this, because of this so-called future “labor shortage” caused by there being so few in my generation to take the place of retiring Boomers. We were all supposed to be fabulously wealthy and sought after by the time we reached 30.

HARM,

I recall when I was in grade school, companies were outsourcing manufacturing jobs and my teacher was explaining this to us all. My teacher explained to us that we must learn specialized trades when we grow up because manufacturing jobs would be either outsourced or taken over by robots. The teacher asked us all what we were going to do..... I said I was going to build the robots, I figured that would be a safe career. I have become an Engineer, a specialized trade and even these kinds of trades are being outsourced. I would never be comforted by one article by one author.

allah,

I must have been one of your less discussed "prototype models".

I suppose much of the reason I still don't identify with the boomer crowd is b/c when I came off active duty military in 1989 the stock market had just crashed and employers were taking some pretty austere measures. Boomers were feeling pretty good about themselves so they were generous with "quota" hiring. PC became all the rage. Many of the guys in my "reserve" unit got decent gov. jobs they'd had since they returned from the Viet Nam era. Their attitude was (as always) I got mine, go get yours. B/c there were so few mfr. jobs and fierce competition for technical jobs many of us wound up in sales. For me it worked out. But think about it. When I came to retail brokerage, their were no existing clients for you to manage. There were NO benefits. Basically it was, there's your desk, here's a phonebook and a roll of quarters so get callin'! No real training to speak of, just a "boot strap" effort and a lot of OT. So what did my "employer" really give me? Well, we had to pay for our leads, rent our desk and cover our phone bills. So........ basically nothing. That's why me likey boomers!

HARM,

My point is when you're "taking deep pork" in the job market it's often difficult until YEARS later. Most of the logic I was fed went along these lines. "Hey kid, my first job wasn't my dream job either!" "None of us start at the top!" So you tell yourself that you're just a whiner and need to "suck it up" and you'll get your chance! Well, two years of night classes later. Then three years goes by and you finally have to simply reject all of the bad dope you've been fed, fall back and regroup! There's a lot of career guidance "malpractice" going on out there.

@DinOR,

I think many fiscally conservative, working-class late Boomers such as yourself have a perspective much closer to Gen-X than to the generally spoiled uber-PC early Boomers. For that matter, there are some extremely obnoxious Gen-X/Y snotty spoiled-rich brat types (Paris Hilton) with whom I cannot identify at all.

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat! :-)

I think many fiscally conservative, working-class late Boomers such as yourself have a perspective much closer to Gen-X than to the generally spoiled uber-PC early Boomers.

Late boomers have Pluto in Virgo, real boomers have Pluto in Leo. They are very different indeed.

BTW, I am quite spoiled, especially when it comes to food.

We should not hate boomers. They are simply who they are.

Pluto in Virgo

What does that mean?

http://www.astrologyweekly.com/learn-astrology/pluto-in-virgo.php

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat!

We jest, but anyone with a long view of history knows that Revolution is a risk when the ruling class takes an excessive share of society's fruits. Unfortunately, the middle class (which I assume is the majority on this board) rarely sees their fortunes improved with the revolution.

Also, with new wiretapping rules, it should be a lot easier to stifle dissent and claim counter-terrorism when you go Brazil on the radicals who are dissatisfied.

Hold on, we have an unusual visitor coming over to my cube. BRB...

Fuck the elite, ruling greed class of all ages and colors. Long live the Proletariat!

Are you now or have you ever been a communist?

HARM,

Thanks! The weird part is that true died in the wool boomers can smell a guy like me coming a mile away. I figured out early on that I would never be a part of their club. Typically they'll warn their friends in advance. The minute they find or figure out you're from a lower middle class neighborhood (and judging from your age) they know there are others infinitely more worthy of their considerable generousity.

Well, gee thanks for the heads up "Chad" I kinda fucking figured that out for myself.

YOUR COMMUNICATIONS ARE BEING MONITORED AND ARE FOUND IN VIOLATION OF THE COUNTER-TERRORISM ACT. CEASE AND DESIST. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

There are always the ruler and the ruled. We should always find peace.

"A friends and B friends are not a trait specific to boomers. I have observed this in many states, families, and age groups."

You have observed this in many states and families because there are boomers in every state and every family. As for the age, you're referring to people who learned how to behave from boomers. Stop defending boomers. Nobody wants to hear that nonsense.

OO Says:

> I am starting to think that this country needs a fundamental
> shift of wealth distribution, or something crazy like this may
> actually stick for many years to come. If we go down this path
> without turning back, this may mark the beginning of new
> serfdom for the mass.

The US is just “reverting to the mean” and will soon be like most countries throughout recorded history when a very small number of people control a large amount of the wealth…

> It seems that we are in a very peculiar state of economy.
> There are a bunch of top earners, and increasing number
> of them (although a very small percent of the total US
> population) earning insane compensation packages, while the
> mass earn less and less, adjusted for inflation. Since these
> jobs tend to concentrate in certain areas, and everyone
> wants to live in certain enclaves, and houses are priced by
> the marginal inventory, it is very likely that we may even see
> APPRECIATION for a bunch of middle upper class properties
> while the general housing sector suffers.

Very rich people in the Bay Area is not something new…

When I was a kid I caddied for many guys who’s relatives ran the railroads in California since the 1800’s who had more money thirty years ago than most of the Google millionaires have today. Super rich people have a lot of super smart people helping them with their money and since a super rich person does not really worry about “getting in to a home before they are priced out of the market forever” they will only buy homes when prices are going up and tend to sell and rent when prices start to go in the other direction. The biggest percentage drops in home prices from 1991-1993 in the Bay Area were in Hillsborough and Atherton…

P.S. More than half the people I know that make over $1mm a year are renting right now…

Somehow to be the consummate boomer one either needs the illusion or reality that they turned their back on the "establishment".

"Yeah, I could have gone to work for my old man". He's got tons of money. In fact that's all he ever talks about. I just wanted to make a difference man". That's why I got into forestry/basket weaving/etc!

Well never mind that boomer will get all of the old man's money in the end anyway (assuming we're on the reality side of the equation) it just wouldn't be the same to boomer without a 35 year period where "we weren't talking man".

This part of boomer's world is not negotiable.

SFWoman Says:

> We have an old fashioned hardware store, Fredrickson’s,
> with a high level of service in Cow Hollow here in the city.
> No pot bellied stove, but you always see people you know
> when you are there and people immediately come to help
> you. I bought a Swiss army knife there yesterday...

If we ever get a Home Depot in SF stores like Fredrickson's and Cole Hardware will die. It kills me every time I spend a penny at those stores since the prices are so high. A while back I noticed that they were selling single plastic trash cans for the same price as Costco was selling six (6) of the same trash cans...

P.S. Take a look at the price of the knife at Froogle or eBay. I bet you could have bought it for half as much if you got it on line...

P.P.S. I recently bought a knife that was on sale at REI and even after getting it for ~$20 less than the sale price using my REI rebate I found the same knife on line for much less

Are you now or have you ever been a communist?

I'm not sure. I'm pro-gun ownership, pro-balanced budget, anti-price controls & anti-illegal, but pro-choice, pro-civil rights, pro-publicly funded education & healthcare and anti-corruption. What does that make me?

Oh, wait... we already covered this is in the "Libertarian Conundrum" thread.

To put it simply boomers have to at least claim that for part of their lives that they:

Reject wealth

Found self

Without this, I'm sorry. Having never gone through this period of self discovery there is no entry into the kingdom of boomerdom. I'm sorry it's just not possible and there are NO exceptions!

Red Whine,

I was only using 1494 to highlight the fact that accounting is not some kind of new-fangled distortion invented by those wishing to confound unfrozen cavemen.

Until you have grey hair, few people take you seriously. And by then, noone pays that much attention to you.

I have lots of grey hair already...

Ray W,

Yeah, I was born in 1959 too. But I didn't really "grow up in the 60's". I was an infant, toddler and grade schooler. I just don't seem to recall a whole lot of peace, love and dope? I read about Viet Nam in my weekly reader for crissakes! I wasn't even considered a "boomer" until I got back from the service in 1989. Huh? News to me! I'm not, (even if I wanted to join) and I don't believe they are accepting anything other than "conditional memberships" when they need your vote.

I kind of laugh because all the benefits of life they have are because of the boomers…their parents.

Ah yes, the benefits...

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html

not including SS liabilities.

Oh thank you sir, can I have another?

My parents were silent Generation, but my Dad still laughs evily whenever I decry the expected taxation rate in 2020...