patrick.net

thomas.wong1986 says

bubblesitter says

Let’s just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I am assuming rock bottom historical interest rate would be the only argument to come up with.

thomas.wong1986 says

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I'd have to disagree with that one. The best argument would be that the economy will recover and people will go back to work.

Look--if you guys think that $8K (the buyers credit) caused the recent rise in prices, then how can you think we are that far from a bottom? $8K is really not a whole lot of money--if it caused that much buying, then clearly people are close to buying already.

tatupu70 says

thomas.wong1986 says

no one can justify any increases going forward, and I doubt you can justify the artifically imposed bottom which will not last.

I’d have to disagree with that one. The best argument would be that the economy will recover and people will go back to work.
Look–if you guys think that $8K (the buyers credit) caused the recent rise in prices, then how can you think we are that far from a bottom? $8K is really not a whole lot of money–if it caused that much buying, then clearly people are close to buying already.

Or it caused that much buying by people who hadn't yet figured out just how bad things are going to get.

More bad news for housing prices:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/more-foreclose-sales-will-drive-down-prices/63862/?source=patrick.net#toolsTop

bubblesitter says

RayAmerica says

Back to the original thread. I think the following makes valid points in stating the bottom won’t hit until 2014 followed by a decade of stagnation.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept10/housing-bottom09-10.html?source=patrick.net

Let’s just assume for the sake of bulls, that the housing has already bottomed, can the bulls give a few reasons why prices should appreciate in near future?

Uh, "They aren't making any more land."

"All real estate is local."

"It's different this time."

"Real estate is your best investment."

Zlxr says

China says they will not buy our batteries unless we ship the manufacturing to China and also give them access to all the technology behind the making of the batteries.

This is precisely what happens when the borrower (the U.S. Government) attempts to deal with the lender (China). Our huge deficits do have a price to pay. China dictates to us trade policies that benefit them and are a detriment to us. "The borrower shall be SLAVE to the lender." When is this country ever going to wake up?

RayAmerica says

This is precisely what happens when the borrower (the U.S. Government)

it's the TRADE deficit that is giving the Chinese our money, not our gummint deficits.

China, Mainland July 2009: $939.9B
China, Mainland July 2010: $846.7B

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

So much for THAT thesis.

China, Mainland July 2010: $846.7B
Approximately 10% of the publicly held US debt, by my count. Less than 50% of publicly held debt is in foreign hands.

I don't see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

If this was in my area, I suspect the winning bid will be $595k or something ridiculous that tops the original list price. Agents have that much influence.

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

Am I missing something? This one was sold last november for $300k...
And Zillow estimate for it is only around $330k

warblah says

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

Am I missing something? This one was sold last november for $300k…
And Zillow estimate for it is only around $330k

Since the year built is 2010, I suspect that the sale last November may have been the land only; or maybe unfinished construction.

Vain says

bubblesitter says

I don’t see the bottom yet. This is one dropped from whopping 559K to 429K in a week.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/5591-Newman-St-90630/home/3991345

If this was in my area, I suspect the winning bid will be $595k or something ridiculous that tops the original list price. Agents have that much influence.

I suspect that too. Multiple bid strategy by the seller. I'd be watching to see what price does it sell for.

Troy says

it’s the TRADE deficit that is giving the Chinese our money, not our gummint deficits.

How much in U.S. securities do the Chinese hold? Do you even know? Here's some help in case you're stumbling for an answer:

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Troy says

So much for THAT thesis.

Also, note that Japan is right up there at #2 in the amount they hold in U.S. securities. I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

RayAmerica says

Do you even know?

Since I posted THAT EXACT FUCKING LINK in my original above, yes.

Now go back to that link and compare China's holdings YOY, and you will find my point.

RayAmerica says

I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

They don't force shit on us. We're just being sold down the river.

Troy says

RayAmerica says

Do you even know?

Since I posted THAT EXACT FUCKING LINK in my original above, yes.
Now go back to that link and compare China’s holdings YOY, and you will find my point.

As Peter Schiff explains in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkEtArDFNYA :
"Of Course We're Not Going To Pay Back The Chinese" (Greatest Schiff Clip Of All Time).

Troy says

RayAmerica says

I wonder if that has anything at all with the unbalanced trade policies they FORCE on us?

They don’t force shit on us. We’re just being sold down the river.

No way are we that stupid, we'll just run the printing presses at the Fed full steam 24x7 until inflation takes care of all of our problems. Who cares if we owe 900+ billion to the Chinese, in Zimbabwe, everyone's a billionaire: http://reynaelena.com/2009/02/13/in-zimbabwe-everybody-is-a-billionaire/

We'll hire this little boy to pay back Hu Jintao his 900+ billion, but in U.S. Dollars:

That'll show them not to try to pull a fast one on us in the future by trying to make us their debt slaves! That's the beauty and the power we hold by the U.S. Dollar being the world's primary reserve currency.

I'm partial to the SNL skit:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d9c_1258865433

Troy says

I’m partial to the SNL skit:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d9c_1258865433

Oh yes, paying them back with those clunkers the government bought a short while ago is always an option!

Mark_LA says

Peter Schiff explains

While I like Schiff, seeing a room full of rich white guys cackle about middle America's fuckedness is not that pleasant.

This nation is so broken we can't even put the upper brackets back to Clinton levels without a drag-out battle.

We have serious income and outgo problems, I don't want to minimize the spending challenge we face. Non-pension gummint spending is allegedly going to be $5.7T next year. Divided by $50,000 per year that's 114M jobs, about the number of households in this country. Something's rotten in the State of Denmark with these numbers.

Pete--

You forgot the part about planting potatoes.

I have been following House Hunters on HGTV as another poster indicated and there are so many idiots in this country that I suspect housing will collapse further. Why does a family of three need a 5000 square foot home at a 750k price?

Our own excessive consumption will be our ruin. I wish I could do a show that shows the results of these home purchases after the housing collapse.

And it is so funny watching the realtors totally f with and play on the buyers stupid ideals. I bet this family in Richmond VA cannot even furnish their home.

They bought a colonial with a pool and they have two toddlers.

Stupid idea

More proof the bottom is nowhere in sight:

http://housingstory.net/2010/10/03/a-mammoth-one-in-five-borrowers-will-default/?source=patrick.net#post-4519

Why is it every time I read anything written by Nat'l Assoc. of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun .... I always picture a Duck?

Another account proving the Duck Dude is all wet:

http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices?source=patrick.net#yui-main

RayAmerica says

Why is it every time I read anything written by Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun …. I always picture a Duck?

Its getting to be very common.

thomas.wong1986 says

Its getting to be very common.

You know the old saying; if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck ......

Clearly you havent been in FLA recently...

Of course there's always a market with homes...provided that the seller and buyer agree on a price ...AND they both have a means.

The baby boomer were the largest generation in the USA...now it's all scattered. Everything these days is made smaller and lighter so the idea that someone MUST have a house is laughable at best.

Heck look at the home shows on TLC and HGTV and you see a few funny things

1) some of the shows are filmed in canada. Canada's currency is nearly equal to the dollar but the housing market is in better shape...

2) some of the show are reruns from five or so years ago....pretty shady

A house is not freedom. How much sense does it logically make to get a house given that businesses can be free to move here and there but yet with a house you are stuck...houses are not liquid assets. You rent an apartment here's first and last months rent and you can leave...I've seen properties on the market for years and years. Let's not also forget the amount of maintenance.

If you can afford it and you know you'll have your same job with same pay for 30+ years ok then it might be a good market. But for everyone else...

Okay, that is kinda funny.

Oh no! More bad news for Larry the Duck. Let's see how he spins this one:

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/110931/the-housing-market-stumbles-again?mod=patrick.net#yfi_pf_main

RayAmerica says

Oh no! More bad news for Larry the Duck. Let’s see how he spins this one:
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/110931/the-housing-market-stumbles-again?mod=patrick.net#yfi_pf_main

Let me guess. Answer would be "this is just a report, there is no data" :)

bubblesitter says

Let me guess. Answer would be “this is just a report, there is no data”

What would ever give you that idea? LOL

in 2-4 years. Once the interest rates have bottomed out the house prices will be next. My guess is mortgage rate of 3.75 percent by May 2011 and a bottom of housing around 2013

the fraud by lenders (and borrowers) happened at the inception of 90% of these loans. Why is this being ignored?

A couple years ago Psychic Sylvia Browne predicted:

"The housing market gets stronger.
Moguls will come in, buy up foreclosures, get richer."

What is the definition of Stronger? higher prices? lower prices and higher volume through more foreclosures?

Who are the Moguls? China? Sovereign wealth funds?

The problem with Psychics making monetary predictions is a s soon as they are made public, the timeline changes.

The most ABSURD real estate bubbles have been going on in India and China for the past 20-30 years, where homes have appreciated about a THOUSAND times. A one thousand US dollar investment in India’s metro real estate in the 1970s is now worth more than a million US dollars. Home owners in India and China are unbelievably rich and are far more wealthy than their Western counterparts. Despite the ABSURD appreciation in the past 30 years, the mentality in India and China is that real estate is the easiest and best form of investment, with values doubling every 2-3 years. Note that these so called homes in India and China are small, with little features, very low quality, have no good infrastructure and so filthy that no sensible person would spend even a 100 bucks on, yet are being sold and bought for millions of dollars each in the greatest PONZI game ever played. You read that right, an apartment will cost you USD 500,000 and a small independent house will cost you at least USD 1 million in the cities of India and China. Note also that the median income in these places is still just a few thousand dollars per year, yet the median home prices are about a million dollars. Very few of the local population can afford to buy homes and so live in makeshift huts. This PONZI game has created inflation, which then fuels the PONZI game even more and you get the idea. Compare all of this to the United States. Homes have hardly even tripled in value in the last 30 years, and yet, we are quick to point this out as a bubble. We are playing the reverse PONZI here, where we want to destroy absolutely fabulous homes to complete worthlessness. A regular 2000 sqft 4-BR American home would cost several million dollars everywhere in the world except in the USA, where it costs a measly USD 200000. Yep, Americans want everything for free. If it is not free, it has to be a bubble.

clayfire23 says

I believe that real estate is ridiculously undervalued in the USA compared to the rest of the world, when you compare features, quality, size, surrounding infrastructure, median income and so on.

That may be true, but has nothing to do with your LOCAL real estate market.

A lot of people believe that jobs drive housing. I am one of the few that has vast international exposure and perspective, and believe that it is actually the other way. Housing is the backbone of every economy, and housing drives jobs. A strong wealth effect created by stable or appreciating house values makes people spend more on all types of goods, which then support the retailers/service providers, who then create or sustain jobs. If we self-destruct housing like we have in America over the past few years, households have lost a vast amount of their home equity wealth, and so they cut back spending, which then impacts the retailers/service providers, who then cut jobs. China has realized this, and has been inflating a government sponsored massive real estate bubble for the past several years, and real estate activity is a very major component of China's GDP.