patrick.net

I vote to purge.

Have any of you heard of this guy or read his book?

http://www.realestatetiming.com

I have not read the book before but I doubt it has anything that we have not discussed yet. I have read two housing crash books before and was deeply disappointed. Shiller's book is the best one yet.

MP claims to be an Ibanker. Personally, I think he uses this and other sites for entertainment. That's why I vote to evict. He's not here to make any valid points, he's here to provoke. Any attention we give him makes him happy. Actually Peter P's suggestion to purge is even better. Let's erase all proof he was ever here. That'll annoy the hell out of him.

SF Chronicle today:

Soon-to-be Obsolete Floor Brokers becoming Real Estate Agents

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/08/05/BUGKBDQGHQ34.DTL

If this isn't yet one more nail in the coffin then I don't know what is! Talk about getting into the party late.

Well, there is not much activity in the stock options market nowadays. Volatility is so low. Now this former floor trader will have to compete with former bunnies. And they will be attacked by the troll!

Actually Peter P’s suggestion to purge is even better. Let’s erase all proof he was ever here. That’ll annoy the hell out of him.

Wow, SactoQt, you've really turned hawkish on MP! I thought you liked his ability to inspire Primetroll?

Excerpt from above article:

Broker Kevin Holt, 41, a San Francisco native who has spent 15 years at the Pacific Exchange, plans to trade from his home in Vacaville and sell real estate after the floor disappears, although he'll probably keep on working there until he's booted out the door.

"A lot of us are going into real estate," he said. "We make good money on the floor. We'll make good money in real estate. We're just not regular-job type of people. I couldn't see anybody down there going to work 9-to-5. Not anybody."

Waiting in Vegas, if your post contains links, please make them tinyurls. I think a comment will be moderated if it contains some links.

Scott, I remember that in 1999/2000 good economic news caused bad stock market reactions.

Don’t get dragged down by him; either respond clearly with facts, or not at all.

We did not respond to him at all. We were just having some fun among ourselves.

either respond clearly with facts, or not at all.

Scott you're missing the point if you think MP pays attention to facts. If you don't like the stories us late nite posters use to entertain ourselves, feel free to troll bens blog w/MP. But please don't be insulting, otherwise you're no better than the troll.

This blog and other blogs predict that we will have a black October…
...
We’re starting an urban legend. Just go with it man!

I could have started the urban legend! :)

@ Harm
Was my post too long?
“Your comment is awaiting moderation.”

Waiting in Vegas,

This block message means you probably included a URL that the WordPress blog software is picking up as a "spam" address. Unfortunately, i don't have the authority to override this --I believe only Patrick does.

The work-around I use is to trim off the "http://" & "www". This seems to "fool" the software into letting you post.

Scott, rent going up is a natural knee-jerk action in the early stage of a housing bubble bust because units are being pulled from the rental pool and placed on the market.

Every investment banker I ever knew, myself included, was an asshole.

That does not mean that every asshole is an investment banker.

Nor does it mean every asshole is a real estate agent, but the opposite is true!

Speaking of Malibu, here's an interesting stat from CAR:
Median home price from April 04 to April 05:
Malibu: -32.1%
oh, and a few more..
Sausalito: -19.6%
Imperial Beach (SD): -17.9%

And, as we've heard by now, it's location, location, location!â„¢
Stats to ponder:
Tracy: +44.9%
Reedley (Fresno Co.) +68.8%
Rohnert Park +57.5%
Dixon: +40%
Folsom: +25.8%
Carmel: +42.2% (a location)
Bakersfield matches at +42.4%

Bakersfield is Prime!â„¢
Is it too late for me to buy in?

location, location, location

You mean dislocation?

This market has bubble written all over it.

Bakersfield is Prime!â„¢

Must build a mobile home there soon. Forget about Malibu.

http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzUyNzE=

Yes, the CAR monthly report, and its accompanying absurdities, is out. But what I found most telling about the chart on the bottom is not the income gap (that is OLD news), but if I read correctly the median household income in the Bay Area is actually DOWN from last year??!!

but if I read correctly the median household income in the Bay Area is actually DOWN from last year??!!
Hmm...interesting. I wonder the cause--professionals relocating to more affordable cities? If not for family, we would.

At the end of a bubble wouldn’t rents decrease, due to the increase in properties going unsold and thus increase the number of available rental units?

It depends on the prevailing view of the market participants. If sellers think that the boom will resume, they will try to rent out the units to increase staying power.

However, if they think a downturn is imminent that they will try to sell. It is difficult to sell an occupied unit with negative cashflow if the expected appreciation is low or negative. As a result, potential sellers may not risk to rent out the units.

This is my theory. Feel free to criticize.

One thing I've noticed out here is that more short-term rentals are being placed on the market with the owners stating they are going to sell in 6 months. I have no way of knowing, but it sure seems like they are likely flippers who are holding their property for a few months with the intention of selling for profit. I wonder who'd rent the place. I wouldn't want to go through the hassle of moving knowing that I'm going to have to do it again in 6 months. And if you can't afford to hold the place for a few months without having to rent it, should you be buying it in the first place?

Another annoyance, on Craig's list there are all kinds of RENT TO OWN postings on the rental site. Johnny-come-lately's to the RE investment game I'm sure. Hard not to wish these guys go down in flames.

Oh c'mon Jack, everyone wants a mobile home in Bakersfield. Don't they?

But then again, Bakersfield has just as much sand as the Marina!

That's right. You can't put a price on those intangibles.

There's lots of stuff popping up out here that it's hard not to notice. Lots and lots of open houses, 'for sale by owner' signs and short term rentals. This market has peaked IMO.

Maybe they have even owned the place for a while, and are just trying to squeeze out the last bit of profit before they sell next spring.

Greed will lead to great fear.

Another annoyance, on Craig’s list there are all kinds of RENT TO OWN postings on the rental site.

All rent-to-owe tenants will leave in droves when prices fall. After all, rent-to-own is an option that may or may not be exercised.

What do you guys think of houses starting to be sold at auctions?

Auctions can increase market efficiency. Prices may not be so sticky this time around.

I guess that “intangible” argument will now follow me to my grave.

C'mon jack, it is just an intangible annoyance.

What do you guys think of houses starting to be sold at auctions? A distressed owner in LV decided to put her house on an auction, because sales don’t move, and nobody shows up.

Nobody showed up? Bummer. Is this a growing trend or something that is just starting to pop up?

Jack

Just poking a little fun at you. Actually the intangible argument has merit. I was just commenting that in Bakersfield the intangibles are not so evident. (if they even exist)

Hard to get into a bidding war if no shows up though. What do you think the reason for that is? Do you guys think that there is a general view that the market is going to go down VERY soon or that there is just more inventory availiable and no one see's the need to bid on a property now. Or a combination of factors I haven't even thought of?

bidding war if no one shows up though.

Jack

Better to be known for having an opinion than never expressing one and no one knowing who you are.

October seems historically violent.

October 1987 - "statistically impossible" stock market crash
October 1929 - crash to precede the Great Depression
October 1917 - revolution in Russia
October 1911 - revolution in China

many other cases...

What will happen in October 2005?

When Bakersfield gives back it’s 42% and Carmel doesn’t, we will see a great illustration of location, location, location.
Ok--I'll grant Carmel some holding power, hence my real location comment. However, I'd venture to say there's a great deal of speculation there as well. In the event of a panic, who says wealthier investors won't sell--even in Carmel? Aside for selling due to money issues, I'd want to get the most of my property too. And since many have attributed California's skyrocketing RE to be partially fueled by speculation, why can't the same hold true conversely? I'm not sure we can have it both ways.
Although I live in the magical land of Marin where a bubble won't burst, I'm going to remain highly skeptical.

Yuan

You bring up an interesting point. People always say the RE market moves slowly, and I think to a large degree investors count on that. But if interest rates start a more rapid than usual climb, we could see a faster than usual RE decline. Something to think about.

When good news is bad.

tinyurl.com/exjyg

Hard to get into a bidding war if no shows up though

This is where the RE agents are able to play with the figures.

In OZ the vendors are allowed one bid (called a vendor bid) and even if nobody shows, the vendor can put a high (just under reserve of course) bid in.
THEN when reported the property has been passed in at X price.
It makes the market still look OK.
BUT, what if (one person shown up) there was a low bid at 50%.......Once again the vendor bid can make the auction look reasonable even if the market has told the vendor otherwise.
You cannot trust the reported data unless someone actually buys.

In OZ, the start of price falls was preceded by a fall in the clearance rates of auctions. And did the clearance rates fall. Don't listen to the percentage clearance rates, (lies,lies,lies and statistics) look at the actually number of properties for auction (including ones being pulled from auction) and the number that actually sell at auction.