patrick.net

Concord is out there but not too far I guess.

I'll check it out thanks.

That's one thing my "What's It Really Worth?" service is good for. It all becomes pretty clear on the map part of it by look at where the green icons cluster.

Anyway, yes, Concord has lots of good deals, also Antioch, parts of Oakland, etc.

One key is that poorer areas are generally good for landlords. Wealthy areas are bad for landlords (great for tenants) because the returns are so low compared to capital invested, usually way below mortgage rates. That's a lot of what this whole site is about.

That's the catch
Poor areas look good for landlords on paper but only
if you can find reliable tenants who will pay.

So it's not quite black and white it may be worth it to pay the slight premium to guarantee
a quality tenant pool.

Concord.
Now that, is funny. It's all in the execution...

vallejo
concord
fairfield
martinez
san Pablo
out the 80 near that military base toward Sacto (forgot name)
Bezerkeley (just kidding)
West Oakland? ( Oaktown one day for me maybe)
other parts of Oakland near Alameda gritty but cool, great food and culture.

The bay area Rocks !

well lets hope that's the case but I'm not going to sit around waiting for prices to fall again
since there's plenty of deals out there now.

toothfairy says

well lets hope that’s the case but I’m not going to sit around waiting for prices to fall again
since there’s plenty of deals out there now.

we have a live one!, define "deal." stop thinking with the VA JAy Jay! haha
20% fall in medium price from here by 2013. IMHO

why not brentwood? newer homes potentially better demographics

Katy Perry says

toothfairy says

well lets hope that’s the case but I’m not going to sit around waiting for prices to fall again

since there’s plenty of deals out there now.

we have a live one!, define “deal.” stop thinking with the VA JAy Jay! haha

20% fall in medium price from here by 2013. IMHO

20% fall by 2013? After a 50 sometimes 60% drop already in some areas I'd say the odds
are against you.
But maybe if unemployment goes to 13%

actually I expect prices to rise. There will be another tax credit before then to clear inventory
next time aimed at investors. mark my words.

toothfairy says

Katy Perry says

toothfairy says

well lets hope that’s the case but I’m not going to sit around waiting for prices to fall again
since there’s plenty of deals out there now.

we have a live one!, define “deal.” stop thinking with the VA JAy Jay! haha
20% fall in medium price from here by 2013. IMHO

20% fall by 2013? maybe if unemployment goes to 13%
actually I expect prices to rise. There will be another tax credit before then to clear inventory

next time aimed at investors mark my words.

What do you think about the possibility that the houses that were bought 2008 onwards won't default in 2013?

show me the jobs I'll change my mind.

Katy Perry says

show me the jobs I’ll change my mind.

Show me the easy loans and I’ll change my mind.

I have been thinking about this today. I understand Patrick's point about how prices on homes in the bottom of the market have already fallen to be consistent with rents. I have been wondering if the economy continues to do poorly and jobs don't return, will everything fall a little further at the bottom of the market? It isn't that I don't believe that prices haven't fallen to be consistent with rent, but it seems like there are more foreclosures coming and the economy continues to look grim. Might the bottom end fall further?

If I felt certain that the low end was going to stay where it was, I might be more tempeted to buy.

pw says

Might the bottom end fall further?

Yes. Until they literally drop money from helicopters.

Peak initial unemployment claims came in 1Q09, so these people will be running through their 99 weeks soon enough, even if DC can manage to pass another eligibility for emergency benefits extension this month.

There's going to be a million people pushed off the rolls next year here. The state has another $25B funding gap again, theoretically that should be another million jobs lost (250,000 jobs lost directly @ $100K/per plus 3 other jobs lost collaterally). Our Speaker in DC is being replaced by an orange man from Ohio next month, no doubt a further punishment to the state's finances over the next two+ years.

I don't see the case for any optimism, really. What I see happening is a building imploding from the bottom, as the welfare state here is dismantled piece by piece over the remainder of the decade.

The one bright spot I guess is the retention of the 36% bracket for high earners. This will theoretically keep more money here at home, where it might possibly end up somewhere else than buying up more real estate and other asset classes.

Dubious of course, but that's the best I got.