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2005 Apr 11, 5:00pm   173,836 views  117,730 comments

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5303   thomas.wong1986   2011 Feb 21, 4:12am  

SF ace says

VC is a lucrative business, why else does a VC like Sequoia Capital don’t even allow anyone with 5M contributed capital a chance to play? These are not your golf community investor who doesn’t even know who audits their funds, these are guys like Jerry Yang, Meg Whitman and rich business leaders, trust funds of the rich that makes up the fund investors.

I am not being negative. It is what it is. Being a VC is a difficult business to be in. Many start ups dont make it and accumulate only losses. So there are no profits to be made. Only a few make it. The rest die out or are sold. Someone putting $5M has to be willing to lose all it. It is the higest level of risk out there. It was only easy when capital flowed during the 80s-90s. But its a very differernt game today. It certainly isnt glamor or fun. But all you have today is hype and exaggerations.

There now 4 people who I worked with in the past currently working in VC firms today. These people dont have tons of money falling out of their pockets as you state. Its also a heavily political business enviroment to be involved in. They will tell you the same thing.

5304   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 4:13am  

SF ace says

Value of Cupertino school district is besides the point. But if you want to compare a condo in SJ with Cupertino school and an apartment complex in San Jose with San Jose school, that is not a genuine coomparable.
and the = price for the above? I don’t believe this apartment within the fourplex is comparable to the Condo as linked above? Why don’t you try again and find one condo in San Jose that is currently selling for 430K and stop looping in confusion.
One would suggest that all that is needed is check what is on the market currently for 1,600 on Craigslist and cross check with sales price on zillow, trulia etc.

I can sit here and show you houses all day, but you will nit-pick them all. Houses are not like stocks, because they are all different, and no matter how similar they were, you can always say that they are not the same. So, it's useless to argue with you. The house I showed you in the 4-plex is a comparative value to the one for $439K, because it's a better and bigger place, but you will still argue with me over it. That fact is, and it's not a major secret that properties in the Fortress areas are still selling for 2x of the rent (and this is what you can find on the front page of patrick.net), because there are still many people, in those areas, which are still drinking the Cool-Aid.

5305   thomas.wong1986   2011 Feb 21, 4:16am  

dunnross says

Cupertino School district has now turned into a cult, rather than a true symbol of comparative value for home purchasers.

Oh how true. Its just laughable when you ask the past grads what the hype is all about.
Same answer from many. We certainly didnt have this back in my day. These people have lost their minds.

5306   Â¥   2011 Feb 21, 4:50am  

High end benefits the most from the low interest rates (8.0% in 2000), higher conforming limits ($250,000 in 2000), lower down payments.

None of which are set in stone ATM.

5307   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 5:03am  

dunnross says

I live in a place which ... rents for $3K/mo.

Renters don’t buy into this BS. Here is a 3bdrm one in actual Cupertino for $1680.

Hmm, these remarks in the same post.

I think that unless it's walking distance to a high paying job, or has some other value-added proposition involved, $3k per month for rent is too much. Some people cannot even afford to put that much away per year for retirement account.

Now, nobody here is calling you stupid, but you even proved yourself that a multi-kid admission ticket to a coveted Fortress school district can be had for $1680.

3K per month just sounds like way to much. Especially, for someone who (like me too) is so down on the high cost of housing around here.

5308   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 5:17am  

sybrib says

dunnross says

I live in a place which … rents for $3K/mo.
Renters don’t buy into this BS. Here is a 3bdrm one in actual Cupertino for $1680.

Hmm, these remarks in the same post.
I think that unless it’s walking distance to a high paying job, or has some other value-added proposition involved, $3k per month for rent is too much. Some people cannot even afford to put that much away per year for retirement account.
Now, nobody here is calling you stupid, but you even proved yourself that a multi-kid admission ticket to a coveted Fortress school district can be had for $1680.
3K per month just sounds like way to much. Especially, for someone who (like me too) is so down on the high cost of housing around here.

You didn't prove anything. This is a 3 bdrm appt at 1200 sq. ft for $1680. I have a 3000 sq. ft, 6 bdrm house with a pool & a gardener for $3000.

5309   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 5:21am  

dunnross says

“The entire state is a fortress” is completely meaningless.

The entire state was a fortress back in 2006, because people in places like Stockton & Modesto were buying in at more than 10x their income, and saying that prices can only go up. Today, the only places where this clueless talk is still alive and well, are the Fortress areas of the Peninsula, and some concentrated areas of the South Bay (ex. Cupertino).

5310   Â¥   2011 Feb 21, 5:42am  

tarkin says

I am almost 93.14% certain that the new monetary standard will be houses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Rentenmark

5311   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 5:54am  

dunnross says

I have a 3000 sq. ft, 6 bdrm house with a pool & a gardener for $3000.

I think you mean you're living in / renting it (as opposed to "having it"), right?

It's OK, even the sh*tbox that I live in, in my blue collar neighborhood where you might worry my homies might hurt you, I don't even feel like I "have", I just live there and pay the owners' rent equivalent.

Whatever.

Could be one of my neighbors cleans "your" pool and trims "your" garden. Could also be they have a stronger overall balance sheet than some "owners" in The Fortress. Of little means, but even of less expenses. And more flexible and opened minded about what kind of work they'll do to cover their expenses.

Since we don't have "real" summers here like they do in places like Austin and Chicago, I'd question the value of paying more for a swimming pool in the backyard where I live.

5312   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 6:00am  

dunnross says

there are some schools which are perceived as good

Talk to those parents, and get them to drill down to why they pay so dearly for their kids to go to Fortress K-12. Most of them (at least the dads who I talk to) are honest and when they drill down past all the crap, it's all about buying the peer group for their kids, not the school themselves.

A sad irony about this is that the teachers and administrators will (in public "face") take full credit for all the High Standardized Test Scores, for which they have little to deserve credit for.

5313   MarkInSF   2011 Feb 21, 6:39am  

sybrib says

dunnross says

there are some schools which are perceived as good

Talk to those parents, and get them to drill down to why they pay so dearly for their kids to go to Fortress K-12. Most of them (at least the dads who I talk to) are honest and when they drill down past all the crap, it’s all about buying the peer group for their kids, not the school themselves.
A sad irony about this is that the teachers and administrators will (in public “face”) take full credit for all the High Standardized Test Scores, for which they have little to deserve credit for.

+1. The teachers are generally high caliber, but I think you're right, most of the quality of the schools come from the students and their parents that take education a whole lot more seriously.

The fortress school districts of the Bay Area have been highly sought after since at least when I was in one in the 70's and 80's. Not likely that's going to change any time soon.

5314   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 6:42am  

MarkInSF says

sybrib says

dunnross says

there are some schools which are perceived as good

Talk to those parents, and get them to drill down to why they pay so dearly for their kids to go to Fortress K-12. Most of them (at least the dads who I talk to) are honest and when they drill down past all the crap, it’s all about buying the peer group for their kids, not the school themselves.

A sad irony about this is that the teachers and administrators will (in public “face”) take full credit for all the High Standardized Test Scores, for which they have little to deserve credit for.

+1. The teachers are generally high caliber, but I think you’re right, most of the quality of the school come from the students and their parents that take education a whole lot more seriously.
The fortress school districts of the Bay Area have been highly sought after since at least when I was in one in the 70’s and 80’s. Not likely that’s going to change any time soon.

Cupertino is spending $6K/student, while most schools in San Jose are spending $8K-$10K/student (I got this data out of the San Jose Magazine). Cupertino class sizes are also, in general, higher than the class sizes in San Jose and other cities. So, how can Cupertino have better teachers, again?

5315   MarkInSF   2011 Feb 21, 6:47am  

dunnross says

So, how can Cupertino have better teachers, again?

I didn't say that. In fact I was agreeing with sybrib that most of what you're "buying" into is the peer group.

5316   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 6:52am  

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

So, how can Cupertino have better teachers, again?

I didn’t say that. In fact I was agreeing with sybrib that most of what you’re “buying” into is the peer group.

Yes, but that doesn't mean that your son or daughter will actually do better there, because they will just perform at their own "level". I would even argue, that, if your child is not already a "superstar" performer, they might feel insecure going to one of those schools.

5317   MarkInSF   2011 Feb 21, 6:52am  

tarkin says

I am almost 93.14% certain that the new monetary standard will be houses.

In a sense, it already is. The base money created by the Fed is already about 1/2 backed by mortgages, and much of commercial bank deposits are backed by mortgages. Not literally "houses", but the fact the loan is collateralized by a home makes it pretty close.

5318   marcus   2011 Feb 21, 6:54am  

sybrib says

A sad irony about this is that the teachers and administrators will (in public “face”) take full credit for all the High Standardized Test Scores, for which they have little to deserve credit for

This is always the case. It's sometimes a chicken versus egg argument. All the best private schools owe even more of their success to quality of their students. Unlike your Fortress K-12, which I assume is a public school district in an upper middle class area, in private schools they even have admissions tests. But because teaching such children is far easier and much more fun than teaching students who hate school and hate their lives, they do indeed attract good teachers.

By the way (further off topic), the lower pay for teachers at private schools is often used as an argument against salary benefits public school teachers receive. The people making such arguments don't realize that it is a very different job.

5319   MarkInSF   2011 Feb 21, 7:05am  

dunnross says

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

So, how can Cupertino have better teachers, again?

I didn’t say that. In fact I was agreeing with sybrib that most of what you’re “buying” into is the peer group.

Yes, but that doesn’t mean that your son or daughter will actually do better there, because they will just perform at their own “level”. I would even argue, that, if your child is not already a “superstar” performer, they might feel insecure going to one of those schools.

Oh, but I think you are very wrong about this. A child's peer group very much affects their ability to rise to their potential. Go to a school where your friends don't think learning is cool, and you won't either.

I'm sure you're right that some kids feel insecure there and not do better, but it tends to be pretty self selecting. Most of the kids that go there tend to be pretty high performers to start, simply because their parents raised them to be that way, tend to value education themselves, and were willing to do what it took to get them in those schools.

5320   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 7:10am  

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

So, how can Cupertino have better teachers, again?

I didn’t say that. In fact I was agreeing with sybrib that most of what you’re “buying” into is the peer group.

Yes, but that doesn’t mean that your son or daughter will actually do better there, because they will just perform at their own “level”. I would even argue, that, if your child is not already a “superstar” performer, they might feel insecure going to one of those schools.

Oh, but I think you are very wrong about this. A child’s peer group very much affects their ability to rise to their potential. Go to a school where your friends don’t think learning is cool, and you won’t either.
I’m sure you’re right that some kids feel insecure there and not do better, but it tends to be pretty self selecting. Most of the kids that go there tend to be pretty high performers to start, simply because their parents raised them to be that way, tend to value education themselves, and were willing to do what it took to get them in those schools.

Those kids who are high performers and value education will do just as well in a non-fortress K-12. Especially, since they are, mostly, being taught by their parents, and not their teachers.

5321   MarkInSF   2011 Feb 21, 7:43am  

dunnross says

Those kids who are high performers and value education will do just as well in a non-fortress K-12. Especially, since they are, mostly, being taught by their parents, and not their teachers.

I don't agree, but even if you are right, that is not the perception of most people. And as I pointed out in a previous post, it has been that way in the Peninsula/South Bay since at least the 70's, and is unlikely to change anytime soon, so many parents will continue to place a high premium the schools that the believe will give their children the best outcome.

5322   anonymous   2011 Feb 21, 8:14am  

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

Those kids who are high performers and value education will do just as well in a non-fortress K-12. Especially, since they are, mostly, being taught by their parents, and not their teachers.

I don’t agree, but even if you are right, that is not the perception of most people. And as I pointed out in a previous post, it has been that way in the Peninsula/South Bay since at least the 70’s, and is unlikely to change anytime soon, so many parents will continue to place a high premium the schools that the believe will give their children the best outcome.

I agree with MarkSF...and dunnross, you are absolutely wrong about that. We also chose to buy a house in a neighborhood with the best schools. It was a big selling point. Most of our friends as well. It is what it is. You can hate it as much as you want to hate it, it won't make a difference.

5323   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 10:01am  

SubOink says

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

Those kids who are high performers and value education will do just as well in a non-fortress K-12. Especially, since they are, mostly, being taught by their parents, and not their teachers.

I don’t agree, but even if you are right, that is not the perception of most people. And as I pointed out in a previous post, it has been that way in the Peninsula/South Bay since at least the 70’s, and is unlikely to change anytime soon, so many parents will continue to place a high premium the schools that the believe will give their children the best outcome.

I agree with MarkSF…and dunnross, you are absolutely wrong about that. We also chose to buy a house in a neighborhood with the best schools. It was a big selling point. Most of our friends as well. It is what it is. You can hate it as much as you want to hate it, it won’t make a difference.

It's very good for you to think about your children. I have children too, which I love very much,
and it is natural that we always want the best for them. But, just because you give in to the peer pressure, or to the pressure of your spouse, or, one of those RE agents, and overpay for a property in a so-called "fortress" school district, doesn't mean that somebody who points out the folly of your decision is wrong.

5324   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 10:12am  

dunnross says

SubOink says

MarkInSF says

dunnross says

Those kids who are high performers and value education will do just as well in a non-fortress K-12. Especially, since they are, mostly, being taught by their parents, and not their teachers.

I don’t agree, but even if you are right, that is not the perception of most people. And as I pointed out in a previous post, it has been that way in the Peninsula/South Bay since at least the 70’s, and is unlikely to change anytime soon, so many parents will continue to place a high premium the schools that the believe will give their children the best outcome.

I agree with MarkSF…and dunnross, you are absolutely wrong about that. We also chose to buy a house in a neighborhood with the best schools. It was a big selling point. Most of our friends as well. It is what it is. You can hate it as much as you want to hate it, it won’t make a difference.

It’s very good for you to think about your children. I have children too, which I love very much,

and it is natural that we always want the best for them. But, just because you give in to the peer pressure, or to the pressure of your spouse, or, one of those RE agents, and overpay for a property in a so-called “fortress” school district, doesn’t mean that somebody who points out the folly of your decision is wrong.

Isn't that a coincidence that the 70's is exactly when this bubble started. So that only proofs that this hype about Fortress schools has been going on since the beginning of the bubble. Another coincidence is that the school hype has been mostly prevalent in bubble cities, but, in non-bubble cities, all schools are perceived as being good.

5325   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 10:19am  

dunnross says

There is no more money for bad schools or good schools.

Well, what about for elite (Fortress) peer groups?

If that happens, Fortress Parents will be sending their Fortress Children to Fortress Schools with Other Fortress Children from Other Fortress Families, which could be what they were paying for anyway. It's all good, keep it all in The Fortress.

5326   dunnross   2011 Feb 21, 10:29am  

sybrib says

dunnross says

There is no more money for bad schools or good schools.

Well, what about for elite (Fortress) peer groups?
If that happens, Fortress Parents will be sending there Fortress Children to Fortress Schools with Other Fortress Children from Other Fortress Families, which could be what they were for anyway.

In Belgium, a school child can go to any school they want, regardless of where they live. Most people prefer to go to school which is close to their places of residence, because all schools are equally good. In California, we have so-called "School Cops" who go from house to house and check out your daughters bedroom, to make sure that she is the one who she claims to be, and she really lives in that house. In Belgium, and average school child will do twice as well on a basic intelligence test, than an average California child. If this country and this state wants to compete with other countries on education, they will have to adopt a system which is more like the one in Belgium than the one in California, and not succumb to the pressures of the NAR and other housing groups, who, through their lobbying in congress have done a great disservice to both, the economy, and the education of this country.

5327   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 10:38am  

MarkInSF says

that is not the perception of most people.

Perception of most people? - Or just the perception of most people who rationalize the price they paid to buy in The Fortress?

5328   knewbetter   2011 Feb 21, 10:39am  

I was checking out physical silver and gold, but was dismayed to find out I needed something like 50,000 ounces to redeem my SLV certificates. So in other words, I won't be taking delivery!

Exactly what is the risk for them to sell too many of these shares? The only people they'd have to pay off would be people who are rich, so once again there's the common folk and the important folk. Doesn't this keep the real price lower than if it were only a physical posession?

5329   B.A.C.A.H.   2011 Feb 21, 10:40am  

SubOink says

I agree with MarkSF…and dunnross, you are absolutely wrong
We also chose to buy a house in a neighborhood with the best schools. It was a big selling point. Most of our friends as well.

I see.

Groupthink.

5330   Patrick   2011 Feb 21, 3:44pm  

The best part about Ayn Rand is that she was having an affair with a supporter named Nathaniel Branden who was 25 years younger, with the knowledge of both his wife and Ayn Rand's husband, who agreed to it "for the good of humanity" of course.

All kind of sick already, but then Nathaniel started "cheating" on Ayn if that's the right word, given that they were already cheating on their spouses. Ayn threw a huge hissy fit and ostracized Nathaniel from the Objectivist movement, but of course could not tell the public why.

Ayn Rand was so selfish and self-obsessed that of course that's the kind of follower she attracts. Heck, she even wrote a book called "The Virtue of Selfishness and Capitalism".

More details here:

http://www.noblesoul.com/orc/bio/brandens.html

5332   marcus   2011 Feb 21, 11:04pm  

Everyone knows MSNBC is left leaning. But much of their bias is reflected in commenting and criticizing the crazy things that Hannity, Beck and Limbaugh say. Well also Michelle Bachman, Palin and others pols. When they aren't taking very specific issue with right wing politicians and pundits, they are trying to inform what right wingers are doing with laws and policy. Yes, with a very left wing bias.

Whereas Limbaugh and Beck just lie and make stuff up, that the haters in their audience will eat up. I think the biggest differences can be traced to who pays them and the intelligence of their audiences. Remember, the republicans would never be able to win elections without the Christian right and you know, how should I put this, all of the others who just felt like GW Bush was the kind of guy they would like to have a beer with.

5333   FortWayne   2011 Feb 22, 12:10am  

I can't really call Glen Beck a conservative. To me he is just a guy who found his weird niche by playing a pretentious personality on television. I honestly do not believe he cares as much about politics as his show leads people to believe.

I watched his show a few times, he is just like Limbaugh.... they start off with a point they try to prove. Make a few fallacies (usually a circular reference or adhominem) and continue their point till the end of the show.

Here are the fallacies I have seen by these guys: Appeal to False Authority, Circular Reference, Appeal To Ignorance, StrawMan, AdHominem, Argument by Poetic Language and Selective Observation. And that's not all, just a few I remembered.

Funniest one was when they (Beck, Limbaugh, etc... not sure which corporation they work for) overdid on fallacies and ended up calling Obama a Muslim Communist. It was pretty funny because the two categories are mutually exclusive and I think it ended up backfiring due to that.

5334   thomas.wong1986   2011 Feb 22, 2:35am  

Dqnews.com

A decline in sales between December and January is normal for the season, with that drop averaging 27.1 percent.

The median price paid for a home last month was $239,000, down 5.9 percent from $254,000 in December, and down 3.2 percent from $247,000 for January a year ago.

A decline in the median from December to January is not unusual, although last month’s 5.9 percent dip was a bit steeper than the average December-to-January drop of 3.3 percent.

5335   Patrick   2011 Feb 22, 4:30am  

shrekgrinch says

Where’s the hypocrisy?

The hypocrisy was Ayn's blaming Nathaniel in public for something she herself was doing with him in secret.

5336   FortWayne   2011 Feb 22, 4:42am  

patb says

i would extend the offer to any military veteran, who is willing to live in the house for 2 years.

I'm not crazy about extending an offer to any group specifically. Either everyone, or no one. Government isn't allowed to pick winners and losers.

p.s.
shrekgrinch - i'm not faulting you. Just I've seen a lot of that stuff in the media lately, thats what I've been referring to. The media fetish over special treatment to certain groups, but not others. I really can't agree with firefighters being treated better than teachers, soldiers, bakers, engineers, small business owners, etc...

5337   klarek   2011 Feb 22, 4:46am  

tatupu70 says

I would argue that you are completely incorrect. It appears from the latest data that the housing credit ending pulled ahead some demand, but did not cause a collapse. Housing is not falling to where it “should have gone without the credit”. The credit caused a rise directly before its end, and a fall directly after. Then you have the normal winter slump. Most recent data indicate spring will be good.

If housing prices fall to their fundamentally-supported values, then why would the tax credit prevent that from happening? If it doesn't, then why wouldn't prices fall to where they should have gone* without the credit?

*I am putting a small caveat on this for increasing GDP during this period, though minimally impacting the prices.

5338   tatupu70   2011 Feb 22, 4:51am  

klarek says

If housing prices fall to their fundamentally-supported values, then why would the tax credit prevent that from happening? If it doesn’t, then why wouldn’t prices fall to where they should have gone* without the credit?
*I am putting a small caveat on this for increasing GDP during this period, though minimally impacting the prices.

I didn't phrase that very well. My point was that housing did fall to its fundamentally supported level. The housing credit doesn't appear to have had much impact other than shifting demand around a little bit.

5339   Done!   2011 Feb 22, 4:53am  

Mr.Fantastic says

Would you buy a $1,000 house in the middle of Kabul, Afghanistan or Mosul, Iraq? These cities are probably more safe than Detroit.

Poppy Cock and a hardy load of Bullshit! There's not a piece of land in the US that is not contaminated that is absolutely worthless.

At $1000 I bet there's people smart enough to know, RE is all Trend, and Perception. Especially those to poor to care about the other hang ups "High crime" blah blah blah. It's thugs and druggies shooting each other, if they were randomly indiscriminately shooting Citizens, the National Guard would be there. Sure you could post a news story, you go first I'll all the crime stories in LA we can go toe to toe, until you realize how pointless that would be.

Judging by most of you guys fundamentals here, you'll be a renter for life. As long as you think there's houses in a large City in the US not worth $1,000.

I'll take them all for $1,000 each, that is along with being free of any previous liabilities.

5340   Huntington Moneyworth III, Esq   2011 Feb 22, 6:08am  

Ayn Rand collected MediCare and Social Security checks.

Enough said.

5341   RayAmerica   2011 Feb 22, 7:26am  

The State of Michigan has ordered Detroit to close half its schools. Houses are selling for peanuts, schools are in chaos, crime is rampant. Detroit was once one of the world's greatest cities. What changed it? I personally think that the fact that Detroit has been controlled by Democrats for the last 60 years has absolutely nothing to do with it. Absolutely no way.

http://detnews.com/article/20110221/SCHOOLS/102210355/1409/Michigan-orders-DPS-to-make-huge-cuts

5342   thomas.wong1986   2011 Feb 22, 8:30am  

Home Prices Almost At 2009 Trough As Double Dip Materializes
According To Case-Shiller Index
Feb. 22 2011
By AGUSTINO FONTEVECCHIA

http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/02/22/home-prices-almost-at-2009-trough-as-double-dip-materializes-according-to-case-shiller-index-2/

Housing prices continue to tumble, making their way to their 2009 trough and reinforcing the idea that a double-dip in home prices is inevitable, according to the most recent data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The National Index is within a percentage point of the 2009 trough and 11 of the 20 cities surveyed hitting new index lows, as the statistics reveal an increasingly deteriorating housing market

A double-dip in home prices is over the horizon and on its way. Yale economist Robert Shiller, who created the index along with Karl Case, noted in an interview with CNBC that “price[s] may go down substantially,” and, according to Trade The News, estimated that the decline could be in the 15% to 25% range.

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