patrick.net

One of the "dynamics" that has contributed significantly to this bubble over other previous bubbles has been the sheer level of preparedness for it.

It's often been said that if you wanted to make money in the 1950's one should invest in infant care. Johnson and Johnson, Gerber Foods etc.

In the 1960's and 70's we began the "junk food revolution" and the franchising of America as boomers became young adults.

In the 80's (now that they're old enough to have decent paying jobs) financial services flourished.

In the 90's TECHNOLOGY

Now in 2000 and beyond it just seemed that everyone was SO POISED to capitalize on boomers, their second and vacation homes that we've practically geared our entire economy to take full advatage of it! As if nothing else mattered. Some how I've just got to believe that Wells (and other lenders) feel that there might be a quick and relatively painless RE correction but their actions tend to indicate that they still firmly believe that this is nothing more than a "speed bump" and that the good times will be back in nothing flat? Are they thinking there will be some kind of "echo boom" for RE? Someone tell me!

SP,
Well spoken. I've never understoof the mentality of Mass- protest these says especially over things like "saving Tibet." I lived in Berkeley for 4 years. Every other car had a "save tibet!" sticker on it. It's ironic because 4 miles down the road is Oakland. You never heard anyone say:" Hey- let's help Oakland!"

i take your points, mr v., but don't fully agree... but then i'm different ;)

i believe in a world where the average person on an average wage should be able to easily afford the average house as an owner-occupier. there is nothing in the price of construction that should preclude that, so it's just land price-fixing that keeps people renting, mainly to suit a class of landlords.

we've seen a doubling in price in real terms of the same houses in the last 20 years of boom conditions, divorced from the cost of construction.

ARM loans of any kind are CRAP for the average person or family. They put you and your payment at the risks of the interest rates. The beauty of fixed rate mortgages is that you know what your payment will be for the life of the loan.

yeah, but for some reason, they're not the norm here, and you can only fix for a period of 3 or 5 years before they review it, not the lifetime of the mortgage. most people get ARMs, and have done for years -- fixed is set 1-2% higher than ARM, and it has been shown that with fairly stable rates, you will save money with the ARM. you get more peace of mind with fixed, but a higher rate, on average, to go with it.

If people cannot rent and save at the same time, then they should work towards getting a better job. If they cannot, then they should continue to rent. Its better than foreclosure and bankruptcy.

this is the sort of individualisim i don't agree with, as per my opening remarks, particularly around the obvious price fixing in the market to suit landlords and the property industry. who's to say that your earnings won't cover a mortgage? it's just that saving 20% of $300K = $60K can be difficult, which is why the no docs and 0 down loans came about if you proved you could meet the repayments. but buying is still too dear in many places. prices should be forced lower and an end put to land speculation.

20% down eliminates PMI.

is that mortgage insurance? once again, i guess there are 'flexible new products' on the market these days. further, mortgage insurance is once again put there mostly to protect the lender, not the borrower.

but i don't agree with the whole system as it stands, as i've spelt out. i tend to advocate 'outside the square' solutions to the whole rotten system of housing allocation...

Red Whine,
What makes no sense is that the current Chryslers are made out of leftover parts from older Mercedes, Chrysler engines, and sometimes even a few French parts from Cintroen. Yet they've made big improvements. I'm a hard-core Japanese car fan too. My truck has over 200k on it, and the thing still looks brand new inside and out. Still drives very tight. No rattles.
On the other hand, a friend of mine got a Dodge Caliber, and for 14k, it's a really nice car. I just might consider one when the toyota dies( if ever).

We called the car a ‘porsh’ just to irritate them.

a friend of mine literally does call them 'porch' with an extra emphasis on the 'ch'... he's the greatest guy in the world, very funny and humanistic, great with kids, teaches art and whatever else, no money whatsoever, loves challenging teaching roles particularly in bad areas, and is currently teaching refugee kids in London's East End... i think to be content with what you have is a life well lived...

One of the most award-winning auto plants in the world is the Shanhai GM plant. They build Buicks there that look a hell of a lot nicer than the ones GM sells here, plus they cost less. I'd buy one if the sold em here.

LA Bob,

Thank you! I've been saying this until I had veins sticking out of my forehead but in an "appreciating" market everyone seems altogether too willing to look the other way. How forgiving will we be when these properties no longer have "that new McMansion smell"?

What I fail to understand is why someone like Bill G or Dick Branson bothers to acknowledge a dubious ‘honor’ by an antiquated monarchy.

beats me.

seriously tho, the sociological answer is that americans seem to crave titles and status as they supposedly shed the trappings of monarchy. as soon as the fighting was over, they kind of wished they had some titles and things - hence, the bluebloods like to create affectations like being William Gates III... a 'real' title dispensed by a monarch is even better...

there was a very successful hotel in europe post WWII that used to hire impoverished minor princes as ski instructors for rich american visitors -- this worked like magic, as cashed up american moms didn't trust ordinary ski instructors with their daughters, but, these guys gave them hope their daughters might marry a guy with a title. it was the perfect marriage of money and status -- the americans had the money and business sense back home, the europeans had the prestige and pomp and circumstance... in the mom's eyes, their daughters could be somebody. never underestimate man's need for status and esteem...

DinOR Says:
Now in 2000 and beyond it just seemed that everyone was SO POISED to capitalize on boomers, their second and vacation homes that we’ve practically geared our entire economy to take full advatage of it! As if nothing else mattered. Some how I’ve just got to believe that Wells (and other lenders) feel that there might be a quick and relatively painless RE correction but their actions tend to indicate that they still firmly believe that this is nothing more than a “speed bump” and that the good times will be back in nothing flat? Are they thinking there will be some kind of “echo boom” for RE? Someone tell me!

Two points to add to your comments:

First, I agree with the idea that if you follow the boomers, you'll make the money. I suggest health care, if it can be converted from a government handout to a true for-profit segment, would be the next venture for the 2010's. You may have heard of the rising phenomenon of "executive health care", where MD's are deciding to limit their practices to entirely out-of-pocket paying patients in return for extremely high-service care (MD's returning calls in minutes, appointments lasting as long as needed, etc.) This kind of model will probably take off significantly in the next few years.

Second, the pollyanna views from WF and the like are just symptoms of the usual tunnel vision, please shareholders mentality of corporate mgmt. As long as short-term outlook is positive, everything's okay with the ship. Don't worry about that iceberg looming ahead 10 years down the line...

Robert,

If you want to debate the total cost spent on the automobile per user vs. transit users, please feel free to do so. I would prefer that you do it on the last thread, but we can have a multi-thread running debate on this if you prefer. I know this stuff, as it is one of my hobbies and I know a bunch of Urban Planners, including my wife. This is another case where the collected wisdom is simply wrong.

But you have to debate me with sourced facts and figures, not simply mudslinging. If you are just going to throw around insults, don't waste both of our times.

Jon,

No actually that's a pretty good analogy b/c Wells can honestly say that they tried to "qualify" you for conv. fin. and you didn't fit that mold. So, rather than turn you over to THE wolves we turned you over to OUR wolves.

If you actually bother to research this, the Daimler-Benz factory in India actually has won several quality awards. I haven’t owned a car made there, so I can’t speak either from my first hand knowledge or your first class prejudice.

yeah, sorry, bad english humour, it's a running joke over there... you should have heard the trouble prince philip got into when he made a remark like that in a factory not very long ago...

interesting that all my stuff made in china seems to work just fine, plus the shanghai car plant quality, but astrid who spent her childhood in shanghai thinks that all chinese product is crap...

never underestimate man’s need for status and esteem…

I do not care about status and esteem. Power is much better.

The owner of a Los Angeles car dealership is suing Mercedes-Benz; its $1.7 million car purchased in 2004 wouldn't run for more than 10 blocks without problems.

The car, a Mercedes-Benz AMG CLK-GTR Limited Edition Roadster, was supposed to be one of only five made. In the lawsuit, the owner of exotic car dealership Grand Prix Motors also alleges that six were actually made, reducing the value of his car.

well, there's the answer straight away -- cannibalise the 6th car for parts -- all problems solved at once...

Some of these kids put several thousands of dollars in these things, basically all the money they made working their part-time jobs and whatnot. They learned a tough lesson.

A very good lesson nonetheless.

skibum,

Thanks, it's a tired old phrase but it's worked (up unitl lately).

My local Doc. is looking into doing exactly that. If we pony up 5K each he could limit his practice to 100 patients and be able to net a decent amount but with a lot less headaches for him and more personalized attention for the patients. Personally I think it can work on a number of different income levels.

Gold Group 250 patients at 2k per year

Platinum Group 100 patients at 5K per year

Platinum PLUS Group 50 patients at 10K per year

and get back to practicing medicine?

well, there’s the answer straight away — cannibalise the 6th car for parts — all problems solved at once…

LOL :lol:

RE: knighthood, the most repulsive recent example was Mick Jagger. Man, that guy's credibility has gone to zero. The so-called rebel of the 60's now accepts the ultimate token of establishment acknowledgement. As a comparison, David Bowie said no to the good Queen, as I understand.

Oh I'm sorry! Is Platinum PLUS* already taken?

Well if that's the case whatever is above Platinum PLUS*

Gold Group 250 patients at 2k per year

Platinum PLUS Group 50 patients at 10K per year

Make sense.

RE: knighthood, the most repulsive recent example was Mick Jagger.

Can't you think of a better repulsive recent example? Mick Jagger is saint compared to _____ .

Peter P,

I ain't goin' there.

keith richards wasn't too impressed with mick either... and anti-royalist comedians like adrian edmonson would never get an offer...

you'd think 'posh' david bowie would accept before mick, but they say mick has always been a secret climber...

i think you're more likely to get an offer if you have a big back-catalogue...

I suppose after a fashion I've always considered Surfer X somewhat chivalrous and worthy of Knighthood.

Sir X Protector of Profanity?

The worst thing about it is that these guys go after stupid kids (college age or early 20s).

yeah, these are true ponzi schemes. the racehorse guy scammed a small number of well-off people who trusted him as a family friend moving in the same circles... their normal business sense was overridden by their personal trust...

the psychology of these things is amazing tho -- e.g. the real estate gurus and their $5000-$15000 courses -- they've perfected a spiel that they know will hook people every time -- they advertise about 'the secrets of the rich' etc and do a national roadshow and just keep reeling em in...

Sir X Protector of Profanity?

Sir Surfer-X, Duke of Profanity, Knight of the Order of patrick.net, Housing-Bull-Troll-Bane, Lord Protector of the BJR

I'll bet he know a lot of rhymes that start 'in days of old, when knights were bold...' at least

where is he, anyway? no point talking about him if he's not around...

DS,

If Arthurian Scholars can still have heated debates after 700 years who are we as (mere mortals) to question Sir X's authority while he lives and breathes! There are spys all about us, I'd watch it if I were you mate.

POVs 28 cents per passenger mile. Transit 73 cents.
Autos 3549 BTU/pass mi. Transit 3831.

I rather travel fewer miles. Auto or transit.

just joking, i'm very loyal to sir surfer... or is it sir fer?

Robert Cote'

Back in the late 80's early 90's before the "Helenites" completely lost their minds we had a chance to turn back. Then Gov. hopeful Denny Smith said he didn't really object to mass transit just that it didn't suit most peoples lifestyles. Most people don't just go back and forth to work. They may have to drop off or pick up children at daycare, shop for their families etc. I'd have to say I'm in that camp. No one would like to see it work more than me, but we've tried. Also there has been a fair amount of violent attacks on PDX light rail and that is not good advertising!

Transportation is strictly a person-per person basis. There is no easy access to a rail from Alameda. The cost per week would be roughly $7.50 a day, or $38 a week. The quickest is the ferry- $10 a day;$50 a week. Me and my wife carpool. Cost is roughly $26 a week combined. Thus for us at least, carpooling costs less than half of the equivelant public transit.

A very good lesson nonetheless.

For some, but not for others. Many of these kids actually thought they were taking charge of their futures.

what amazes me is the sheer repetitiveness in time of all these scams -- there seems to be no end to the takers, from teens through to whoever... there's a role for wiser heads in the community to counsel people against it, but everyone is so atomised these days...

but, the language and psychology they use can be extremely persuasive, and a lot of people don't have the critical ability to question the rhetoric...

Robert Cote'

There is a very specific formula as to how the city, the police and the media deal with these attacks. Firstly if we hear about them at all it is weeks if not months afterwards! If at all possible they try to apprehend the assailants prior to showing the public the security cam tape. It's only when months have gone by and they have NOT got these clowns behind bars is any plea made with the public to identify these "teen male attackers" caving some poor guy's skull in (who is still in the hospital btw). They're not even robberies, it's more like a "thrill kill" with bystanders inside the car typically "joining in on the fun". No thanks, do you validate?

Absolutely! They pyschology involved is fascinating. That’s why I recommend “Without Conscience” by Robert Hare, Phd. A mindblower. Also check out the film, Enron: The Smarest Guys in the Room.

i've read 'around' this stuff for a while, and studied some psych. the interesting thing is that they are almost always male, and that the 'classic antisocial PD' is characterised as an impulsive violent criminal, when it is often likely to be a middle manager or salesman or some such. another buzzword is the 'narcissistic powerpath' in organisations, who tends to be glib and exploitative, in power but completely dysfunctional...

have to put that film on the list too...

Where did you get these numbers Robert? Does that include the cost of parking?

What is the value of a subsidized parking space in San Francisco? In the United States on average?

http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0504.pdf

Calculates that the average automobile in America has six "parking spaces" built for it at an overall cost of $3,000 per year. In San Francisco, you can rent a parking space for about $200/mo, so the free market value of a free parking space is $2400/yr.

Your POV of 28 cents/mile is laughably low. Even the IRS, an institution not known for its generousity, allows a 44.5 cents/mile deduction.

http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm66.htm#_Toc18284958

Calculates the ownership cost of operating a vehicle, averaged out over the entire population at 34 cents/mile.

And these only include the direct costs born by the driver. The huge hidden indirect subsidy is in the form of free parking and medical costs due to all the injuries automobiles cause, which is passed on to others in the form of lost productivity at work and increased health insurance. Other externalities not borne by the driver include the increased congestion caused by their driving which negatively impacts everyone else and damages caused by pollution.

Total cost to operate a motor vehicle, including travel time is about $13k/yr. But if you want to spend your time and money on an automobile, far be it for me to object. What I do object to is the indirect subsidy that is provided to autmobile operators to the tune of $4k/year.

And we are discussing per user, not per mile. Transit users take shorter trips, on the average of 1/3 "Non-drivers travel about 1/3 as much as much as an average motorist (NPTS, 1995)" so you need to calculate your per mile costs for the automobile and multiply times three.

Let's start out by seeing if you can answer what the value of subsidized parking is. Also, either show me your figures or your sources for the 28 cents per mile cost of the automobile.

SQT,
the reason that Japan and Europe have great transit systems is because they've had them for decades, or in Europe's case, more than a century. The reason is as you mentioned- Higher population density. That kind of system would be too pricey in the U.S.
To play both sides though, the US actually had a decent train system circa 1930's. But two things happened: GM lobbied to introduce buses in metropolitan cities during the late 30's. Next came the " Eisenhower defense corridor:, which was simply another clever disguise of another US auto industry victoy, which was selling congress on the idea of immediate military transport of nuclear materials. Hence, the freeways we now have, which as predicted by GM and Ford, were the best thing to happen to them since the introduction of the internal combustion engine.
I'm all about developing new technology that develops vehicles that run on renewable or replaceable resources. Take the "evil" fuel consumption part out of the equation, and replace it with an alternative, the US transportation system would be perhaps one of the best in the world. I recall friends from England visiting a few years ago. They videotaped the freeway because to them it was amazing.

Prince Philip - is he that inbred german/greek wanker who hasn’t held a steady, productive job all his life

yes

(besides rogering the queen on a semi-regular basis)?

that's how he got the job.

the story's pretty fascinating actually, the greek royals were down on their uppers, he was a gadabout in paris, but the young elizabeth insisted on taking him (and had a huge sex drive apparently), so they had to frantically enlist him in the navy and give him a lot of grandiose titles straightaway, which might make someone who believed in progress on merit a little upset...

couldn't you grow sugar cane in the south, where it's hotter?

I recall friends from England visiting a few years ago. They videotaped the freeway because to them it was amazing.

watching 12 lane freeways is pretty strange...

and the cost of construction of all the tarmac and cement comes out of taxes too...