patrick.net

SubOink says

The whole point here is, that it is now more affordable than it has been in a long time but that doesn’t mean everybody can buy a house.

LOL! depends what your matrix on affordability is. The Cali Asses of Realtors was using med incomes to med prices using 30 yr fixed rates for decades. Once the affordability went 5-6% back in 2004-2005 they switched to a new affordability matrix which includes med incomes to "starter homes" using ARM only loans. No definition on what a "starter home " is and dropped the whole 30 year fixed. And presto it went to 25% overnight. And after much denial of a bubble and over hype that homes were indeed affordable based on new numbers, the bubble popped...

Affordibilty? Sure! And people today are still using the highly inaccurate affordibilty matrix from the CAR. WoW !

klarek says

Your logic would be no different during the housing bubble. “I couldn’t afford a $200k house, but now I can afford a $600k house.”

More accurate to say its the... "same house priced at $600K today".

No changes no improvements just the same paint on the same house plus 10 years later.

SubOink says

No, its a little different - I couldn’t afford a 550k house…then the 550k house became a 800k house…then the 800k house became a 550k house again…10 years after..and now I can afford it and my payment is less than rent :)

Pretty simple? I am sure you find a way to twist that around too…

The $350k house became a $1m house. Now it's a $550k house. Still overpriced, but you think it's a deal since that's what it sold for at some arbitrary point in the past.

If you can afford now what you couldn't then, it's because you earn a lot more. Your income now adjusted for dollars back then could more easily afford the equivalent house at that time. Do the math on household income in your area vs prices, adjust for interest rates, compare it to 10 and 15 years ago. Do the numbers add up?

This is something that should be done before you buy, but most people don't, despite the lessons of the bubble.

SubOink says

No, its a little different - I couldn’t afford a 550k house…then the 550k house became a 800k house…then the 800k house became a 550k house again…10 years after..and now I can afford it and my payment is less than rent

Or more like 250K home in 1997 became a 500K home in 2000 and than a 800K home in 2005... But now its just a $600K home so its more affordable...
But what do you call the gap between $250K to 600K ?
More bubbles!! But only in the Bay Area.

Gosh.. im so lucky to have bought my Los Gatos crip back in 92 and
certainly didnt even pay 300K for it.

thomas.wong1986 says

SubOink says

No, its a little different - I couldn’t afford a 550k house…then the 550k house became a 800k house…then the 800k house became a 550k house again…10 years after..and now I can afford it and my payment is less than rent

Or more like 250K home in 1997 became a 500K home in 2000 and than a 800K home in 2005… But now its just a $600K home so its more affordable…

But what do you call the gap between $250K to 600K ?

More bubbles!! But only in the Bay Area.

Encino is still a bubble very much too. We have those exact homes going for 500k still, right next door to a 250k home.

We are still a few years away from housing market leveling off to reality.

SubOink says

Bulls have their set of graphs and bears have their opposing ones - Never ending battle

And CEOs who sign the payroll check like ex Sun CEO have their own.

"there are lots of technical engineers (other regions of the world) who are willing to work at a more reasonable salary because they don't have to spend $3.5 million on a home and pay half of it to taxes."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130520662465078.html

Oh right, you have rentals in concord. forgot thought you lived there. this helps me understand your posts more.
thanks for responding. ;-)

ChrisLA says

I think everyone would be well served trying to get away from the “It’s priced high so it’s a bubble” nonsense.

It wasn’t true before the bubble, and it’s not true after the bubble.

totally agree. it's starting to sound like kids on the school yard the logic has been lost.
i bet there is 100-300k income seperating some posters in the same thread.

klarek says

Math is for faggots and nerds, right?

hey broa chill on the words

Katy Perry says

klarek says

Math is for faggots and nerds, right?

hey broa chill on the words

High school stereotypes. The kid that breaks out the math gets picked on for being those derogatory terms. Dumbass jocks that can't add 1 and 1 remind people that there was supposed to be no math.

Sarcasm. Cmon.

klarek says

klarek says

Math is for faggots and nerds, right?

hey broa chill on the words

High school stereotypes. The kid that breaks out the math gets picked on for being those derogatory terms. Dumbass jocks that can’t add 1 and 1 remind people that there was supposed to be no math.

Sarcasm. Cmon.

I always miss it in the posts for some reason Ha ha!

Please use the "flag" link above any comment that is directly insulting other users. I will delete those comments, and perhaps the person doing the insulting.

If someone feels they have to insult the user rather than argue with the ideas, that betrays a definite weakness in their position.

klarek says

SubOink says

I don’t care about matrixes or realtors, I am talking about my own affordability. Simply, what can I afford or not. Period. You guys are so hung up on matrixes, graphs and all that BS. No Matter what point you want to prove you can always find some graph to back it up.

Math is for faggots and nerds, right?

Wow, showing some true colors there, eh?

Well, anyways. If you knew anything about statistics than you knew that anything can be put together to prove a certain point. => Bulls have their math , and bears have their version. There is an element of interpretation, which is not a precise science otherwise you could predict the stockmarket for us. If it was that precise and just math, then we wouldn't have anything to argue about, would we? Do we have to argue that 1+1=2? No, I do hope that you will agree with me on that - then again, I am not sure. You will probably post something about how 1+1=2 is really not true and nothing but hype.

Once again, you didn't get the point. Very amusing! As long as its only people like you thinking that the market will crash into the grounds - we have nothing to worry about :)

Clarence 13X says

Why should I be required to give back

Yeah, giving back is for chumps. Real men take and give back nothing.

MarkInSF says

Clarence 13X says

Why should I be required to give back

Yeah, giving back is for chumps. Real men take and give back nothing.

I am working hard to be polite on this one, but I have 5 fingers and one of them is reserved for you sheeple and the Feds. You say that as if my having given 28% of my salary over a 30 year period is not enough. Not only 28% but an additional 8% at the register plus parking and driving violation fees that fund the state.

So, now, after I have paid all that you want to take an additional 28% of what I have left over from my death too?

SubOink says

Wow, showing some true colors there, eh?

I was being sarcastic. You hate math, I got it. You don't want it to be applied to finance? That's absurd. What are we supposed to talk about when it comes to housing, the type of drapes you're picking out?

Your aversion to math, charts, etc. is like the dunce in school who picked on the "nerds" because they could solve simple equations. The numbers behind real estate isn't tricky at all.

klarek says

SubOink says

Wow, showing some true colors there, eh?

I was being sarcastic. You hate math, I got it. You don’t want it to be applied to finance? That’s absurd. What are we supposed to talk about when it comes to housing, the type of drapes you’re picking out?
Your aversion to math, charts, etc. is like the dunce in school who picked on the “nerds” because they could solve simple equations. The numbers behind real estate isn’t tricky at all.

LOL! There you go again - Where do I say that I hate math?? Quite, the opposite. What I AM saying is, do your own practical math, your own specific sample and don't listen to a realtors math or a patrick.net perma renters math. Graphs do not incorporate your own individual situation. They are global, general and can be meaningless (no, I am not saying I hate math) to your own example.

Klarek, I think you are confusing "math" with "meth" :)

Mr.Fantastic says

You guys are way too passionate about houses.

SubOink, do you enjoy your house, or spend all day inside arguing about what a great purchase it was on Patrick.net?

Haha. Well..Surprise! its a house crash forum, isn't it? I could also say, just go back to your rental, if you're so happy, why argue about it. But you are right. We shouldn't argue about it anyways. It should be an exchange of information but that's not possible here because guys like klarek are so bitter at anybody that buys a house that he'll turn it into an argument, forgetting that we all really want the same - a nice home to live in and watch our kids grow up. We are just not agreeing on the price :)

SubOink says

LOL! There you go again - Where do I say that I hate math?? Quite, the opposite. What I AM saying is, do your own practical math, your own specific sample and don’t listen to a realtors math or a patrick.net perma renters math. Graphs do not incorporate your own individual situation. They are global, general and can be meaningless (no, I am not saying I hate math) to your own example.

I want to understand what I'm paying $400k for. I'm not going to flippantly go with gut instincts and emotions like way too many people do.

My individual situation is not complicated. I know what non-quantitative factors appeal to me and which don't.

SubOink says

I could also say, just go back to your rental, if you’re so happy, why argue about it. But you are right. We shouldn’t argue about it anyways. It should be an exchange of information but that’s not possible here because guys like klarek are so bitter at anybody that buys a house that he’ll turn it into an argument, forgetting that we all really want the same - a nice home to live in and watch our kids grow up. We are just not agreeing on the price

Funny that despite your constant allegations, nobody is arguing against owning. You and a couple of other insecure owners were arguing against renting, and taking offense from people like me who point out that there are reasons to not buy a house, particularly now, and the tradeoffs between renting and owning. The benefits aren't stacked on one side.

Mr.Fantastic says

I mean seriously, look at all your effort and wasted time trying to convince people home ownership is a great thing. You could be easily mistaken for a NAR shill.

It was so over the top, I accused him of being Lawrence Yun's alt. It's pretty easy to tell when somebody has been whiffing NAr farts, fed propaganda, and believing every bit of it. My RE license instructor made a long point about doing this, feeding on the emotion so that the prey just years to have "their" house and

Prices continue to correct.. downwards.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay110317.aspx

Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Feb-10 Feb-11 %Chng
Alameda $312,000 -6.4%
Contra Costa $243,000 -4.9%
Marin $497,500 -19.1%
Napa $324,000 1.3%
Santa Clara $435,000 -5.4%
San Francisco $589,000 -6.1%
San Mateo $516,500 -6.8%
Solano $180,000 -13.7%
Sonoma $295,500 -4.7%
Bay Area $337,250 -4.7%

Mr.Fantastic says

What’s the point?

If SubOink, ch_tah, and other people who recently purchased their homes think it was a good purchase, that should be it, end of story. Enjoy the house and ride off into the sunset.

The point should be to discuss both sides, so that other readers can get ying and yang. After all, why have a forum at all?

The fact is, that I have been on this crash site as a reader (and a few posts) for 5-6 years...when I was an angry renter. But there was no real point of chiming in on the negativity, as there is plenty of that here. When I realized that it was time for me to buy, I came back here to start adding a little bit of the other perspective as its just doom and gloom up in here. Simply, because that's my own experience. That's it. Do what you want. But we are just here...talking, right? Exchanging thoughts, ideas.

But you guys are funny -" if you're not a negative, gloom and doomer - please, take your positivity and get out of this forum" - Seems like y'all are just negative for the sake of it. Stick your head in the sand and hate the world.

The whole "spending time because you feel bad" is a very moot point. If I felt bad, I'd come in here and say "Guys!! Do NOT buy a house, I just did it and it sucks...I wish I could get out and but I can't yadda yadda..."

Do you think that I think because I post something on a forum, the housing market will go up - --> my house will go up in value?? Haha,..well I wish I had that much power but not even Jim Cramer can do that.

Mr.Fantastic says

You and ch_tah have resorted to insulting renters by creating an “angry renter” stereotype, along with a list of somewhat insulting criteria that define the stereotype. You’re basically bashing renters and glorifying home owning

Common tactic by RE vested parties.

Mr.Fantastic says

SubOink says

Also, the amazing thing about the internet is, that it takes 10sec. to read and respond from an iphone. Do you think because I write a post, I cannot BBQ at the same time or lay in my pool? Guess where I am right now

So you’re at your house, enjoying an awesome BBQ on a Friday, getting emotional and arguing with Klarek on Patrick.net about your home purchase on your ultra cool iPhone?

I was laughing so hard - I dumped my iphone in the pool. Thanks a lot!

:)

Fantastic...it seems that you are spending an awful lot time here too...what's up with that? No house to enjoy? No BBQ? No Kids?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization

I was just wondering why are the new home owners coming back here after their purchase? It's like all is going well for the newly weds until a divorce, lets see - 3 to 4 years later may be?

reading on SubOink's "Now go and buy a house!" post always give me a WTF moment.
Seriously, the most annoying person on this board for me used to be tatupu, guess what, u now officially just replaced him.

warblah says

reading on SubOink’s “Now go and buy a house!” post always give me a WTF moment.

Seriously, the most annoying person on this board for me used to be tatupu, guess what, u now officially just replaced him.

LOL.

Mr.Fantastic says

SubOink says

Fantastic…it seems that you are spending an awful lot time here too…what’s up with that? No house to enjoy? No BBQ? No Kids?

1) I spend a lot of time reading about the housing market, commodities, funds, and tech.

2) I’ve been a home owner for nearly two decades.

3) No, not anymore, I used to eat a lot more red meat, but I’m getting older so trying to be more healthy. Health is wealth.

4) Yup. One is going to college on the East Coast, and another is out with her mother.

Ok, so you know that life can completely co-exist with posting on a forum. Thank you, you answered your own question.

Btw, on a completely unrelated note : this here ROCKS: http://www.waterproofiphonecase.net/ (no, I am not the seller)

bubblesitter says

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization
I was just wondering why are the new home owners coming back here after their purchase? It’s like all is going well for the newly weds until a divorce, lets see - 3 to 4 years later may be?

I have been reading this forum for a long time - I haven't "come back", I've never left.

You are talking about buyers remorse, aren't you? Yeah, that's what can happen after you make a any major purchase. Total normal for some people. Buy a car, then regret it. Buy a washer, then regret it. Luckily, I do my research and stand behind my actions. Rarely do I have buyers remorse. Also depends on your relationship with money. But it has nothing to do with posting your thoughts in a forum.

bubblesitter says

warblah says

reading on SubOink’s “Now go and buy a house!” post always give me a WTF moment.
Seriously, the most annoying person on this board for me used to be tatupu, guess what, u now officially just replaced him.

LOL.

You are taking something completely out of context. It was not meant to be literal. Anyways, I knew I could stir you guys up a bit with that...:)

Mr.Fantastic says

Yeah but you’re in your backyard enjoying a nice sunny day, a BBQ, and you’re spending your time on Patrick? You seriously don’t see the irony here?
I’m in the office (I own the office, but regardless), but if I was outside enjoying an outdoor BBQ, I wouldn’t be on Patrick arguing about the benefits of the very thing I’m enjoying. Pointless.

It's a generational thing. I also check facebook, look at utube, text my friends, write emails - patrick.net is only one of 20 things...

But you are right, my wife just said the same thing..."Honey, put the phone down" - It's probably the reason for this recession. Everyone is blogging instead of working.

Mr.Fantastic says

I’m in the office (I own the office, but nonetheless)

Wait a minute, so now your parents' basement is your home and your office? Sweeeet! What else can we call it? You probably play a lot of video games down there, so it's your lair too, right?

ch_tah says

Mr.Fantastic says

I’m in the office (I own the office, but nonetheless)

Wait a minute, so now your parents’ basement is your home and your office? Sweeeet! What else can we call it? You probably play a lot of video games down there, so it’s your lair too, right?

I think he prefers man-cave

warblah says

reading on SubOink’s “Now go and buy a house!” post always give me a WTF moment.
Seriously, the most annoying person on this board for me used to be tatupu, guess what, u now officially just replaced him.

I'm crushed

@klarek

Psychology. One of my relatives(2009 home owner) got a job after few months on tax dollars. The statements coming out after the job offer, "Job market is improving". Now home prices will go up. Reality? I have bought so I want to justify my decision of buying. In fact current sold numbers are coming out lower then 2009 sold prices.

klarek says

Ever notice they’re all the same?

“Yeah I used to be bitter and angry like you are, then I realized it was the right time to buy a house and I wake up every day so much happier than the one before. So now after I made the thoughtless decision, I seek everybody’s unanimous approval and support. If I don’t get it, then that’s because they are angry renters and I am now more knowledgeable than they are.”

You are such a liar. Show me person on here who came back and sought approval and support for their purchase?

tatupu70 says

warblah says

reading on SubOink’s “Now go and buy a house!” post always give me a WTF moment.
Seriously, the most annoying person on this board for me used to be tatupu, guess what, u now officially just replaced him.

I’m crushed

Tatupu, you better step up your game if you want the top slot of "most annoying person" back. I will defend my top position though, so it won't be easy.

Hey Guys, could I get a trophy? I could put it in my new house. I would like it to say "Most annoying ex-renter, euphoric new home owner with massive buyers remorse and severe need to justify a terrible decision on patrick.net while getting sunburned in Pool"

Now go and buy a house...

Mwahahaha...:)

No one should really be saying it's better to rent or buy IMHO. For me I'll just make the comparison using some newly learned logic. may be the biggest gamble I'll ever make. so the numbers need to pan out or I'll have a F'n stroke. really I will. :-(

I happen to use comparable rent for help. You may use the ego meter. or what the Jone's's's are doing meter. Or is my wife happy meter or the F everyone I'm doing what I really F'n want meter. fine by me.

But please folks try to stop with the BS generalizations. I'll really try also (except on full Moons) I bet there is an easy 100-300k separation in income from poster to poster. I mean really that has to be the biggest issue with choice aside from state/city. someone needs to say uncle. you all sound like kids on a school yard sometimes.

Katy Perry says

No one should really be saying it’s better to rent or buy IMHO. For me I’ll just make the comparison using some newly learned logic. may be the biggest gamble I’ll ever make. so the numbers need to pan out or I’ll have a F’n stroke. really I will.

You're right. There are so many variables in all this that its wrong to generalize.

Good luck with your numbers!

Nice people on the forum!! Any of you guys live close to Las Vegas and have though about getting carpet cleaning then look me up. Thanks!

Another Mish article says more clearly:

Shrinking Labor Pool Means Shrinking Demand For Housing