patrick.net

SactoQt, it is more complicated than that… I have a love-hate relationship with golf.

Funny, I feel the same way about chocolate. ;) I know how it is though--- you love it when it's good, and you're nuts when it's bad.

So far, we've got most of the Posse, but no bulls (Fake, Face, MP) or neutrals (Jack, Zephyr, MerrillClient).

C'mon bulls/neutrals...

We all know MP's story already. :)

High Sierra Guy

You are speaking my language. Welcome to the blog.

It would be fun to collect MP stories and see how consistant they are.

We all know MP’s story already.

Nah --we just know his cover story. I want the real story.
How he's actually a 13-year-old on summer vacation posting from his bedroom, living out his fantasies online by impersonating a $400K/yr investment banker & RE mogul.

@Josh & HighSierraGuy,

Thanks for posting your stories --great stuff! Don't worry about not being "regulars", whatever that means. This is an open forum --no one "owns" it (except Patrick).

You know my husband hates golf too, and soooo many people in his business do business over a game of golf.

Golf hates me.

We bought a 2bd/2ba cosmetic fixer in Sep 2002 for $240k... We bought the house doing all nearly all the things everyone is being criticized for now–$0 down with an 80% I/O 5/1 ARM, 20% piggyback second, although to be fair I wasn’t looking for an I/O, that’s just what the lender came up with. We qualified on the fully amortized payment.

SoldAtThePeak,

Interesting, I didn't realize lenders were aggressively pushing $0-down I/Os that far back. When my wife and I started looking back in '03, we got a pre-qual from our local credit union for standard 30-year & 15-year fixed, but I don't recall them pitching any exotics to us.

May I ask what type of lender you used (broker/bank/online)? Did it include a "teaser-rate" below prime on either the primary or second?

I am 32 years old, single. Have worked for the State of California since 1994, right out of college. Have rented a room from my sister at a very reasonable rate in the Bay Area since 1999 while trying to hoard as much cash as possible. Have approximately $120K saved. Am extremely risk averse and want to avoid all "gimmicky" typed of financing as much as I can when I buy since I plan on staying put once I finally decide to do it. But, like many of you, am very aware of how out of whack rents and prices have become. I believe that the 1998-2001 boom was justified, not only because of the dot-com boom, but because BA real estate had been undervalued for 8 years. Then in 2002 and 2003, prices in Alameda County had actually stabilized after the dot-com fall-out (but no "crash") and I was almost convinced to buy. I became convinced of a "bubble" in 2004 because the madness once again ensued and the market has become downright frightening in the last 18 months and short term rates have been RISING to boot! Can't remember exactly how I found this site. Have been lurking for a year, but have not posted here until recently. I believe's patrick's site was linked from another site that I can no longer remember!

EBR: "Prat — what kind of residency?"

Radiology. Probably going to do a fellowship in body.

Residency has been much harder on her than on me, to be honest. I just try to keep the wheels on the household...

Cheers,
prat

Jack mentioned the real estate boom of the late 1970s and have heard some anecdotes from my parents about that tiem. I'm curious. WHat are the similarities and/or differences between the late 1970s boom and now?

Wow, Jack, and I thought I was long-winded! Just kidding --really enjoyed reading your bio.

Btw, I was wondering --since you're an artist, could you paint or draw something that expresses your vision of the housing bubble? Maybe a nice watercolor of a sea of McMansions all with Realtor signs and Escalades parked in the driveway, extending to the horizon? Or a portrait of a Speculator with bulging suitcase full of NAAVLP money, salivating with greed over FTB/victims?

And when you're finished, we could scan it & post next to "Mr. Bubble" on Patrick's link site. Just an idea...

Hi,
I find it interesting to read how people approach the housing problem, and their conclusions leading to the so-called "bubble" scenario.

I'm a transplant from the Seattle area originally, getting thick into the speculative/entrepeneurial mania in Silicon Valley as the "New Economy" ramped up. During the height of the boom, I was in a way a "cyber real-estate" developer, buying up large tracts of domain names, branding these appropriately for "foreseen" dot-com businesses, then selling off for a very nice return. This wasn't "cybersquatting", but more of a creative venture, capitalizing on the prevailing belief that any "good name = good real estate" for future dot-com businesses. So that's the hype. All went very well...for a while, and you know the rest. Fortunately, I noticed the boom/bust dynamic earlier than the average investor, cut my losses, and did ok.

Yet, despite the huge hit to the local economy and resulting workforce exodus, real property values continued rising past 2000, hitting the stratosphere as of late. While realtors insisted it was demand-driven market dynamics, I began to question basic assumptions and wonder wtf was really going on. Researching RE investing, I started seeing parallels between the dot-com boom/bust and the current Bay Area housing market. I'm really a novice in real estate, but this site has provided some education--and challenging viewpoints.

Yakim wrote: "There aren’t *that* many Google million- (and hundred-thousand-) aires!"

True, and I bet the vast majority of them are NOT selling their stock yet either especially after tripling in value in just 12 months.

New story - MSNBC: "Housing inventory spikes in 'burbs"
http://tinyurl.com/9rjfc

"Buyers are taking advantage of the increased inventory, waiting longer before they make their offers and hitting more open houses. Sellers, meanwhile, many of whom are trying to cash out near the height of the market, are growing increasingly frustrated as their houses sit on the market for weeks and months.

Sellers traditionally are slower to realize when the market is changing, usually because their information is more dated than buyers'."

Denial: My million-dollar stucco $hitbox will continue to appreciate 20% YoY forvever. There is no Bubble!

Anger: What's the matter with these people! Don't they see the PIBs of my $hitbox?

Bargaining: Well... maybe I could lower the asking price... just a bit.

Depression: I've already lowered my asking price three times --to ONLY $850K (*sob*)! And still no buyers --I just don't understand!! Sure, I only paid $600K, but STILL....

Acceptance: I guess $1 million was a bit too much to ask for a 600 sft corrugated steel shack under the freeway overpass. But it did have granite countertops...

That's precisely what happens when you put all your eggs into one basket. Funny how homeowners accuse renters of being angry, jealous and bitter when THEY are the ones with the sense of entitlement regarding the worth of their property. Perhaps buyers are FINALLY saying enough is enough - it's about freakin' time!

(Novato was a little town with a few subdivisions carved into pear orchards and Highway 101 only had two lanes in each direction, and had the only stop sign ON the highway between SF and Santa Rosa.)

What do you mean, Jack? I do not remember having to stop on 101 driving frim Santa Rosa to San Francisco. Do you mean Novato only hase at-grade intersections (no on/off ramps)?

Now I am a bit sacred. I thought we would have until October to build speculative positions and I have been a bit lazy. It appears that many local markets are in the early stage of popping. Looks like I will have to "trade now or regret about not profiting from the bust forever.". :)

Since then, whenever I hear one of my friends making an offer a house, I send them this link and their reaction is always some sarcastic, “thanks a lot!”

What? Are you saying they don't appreciate your friendly offer of help and enlightenment?

What? Are you saying they don’t appreciate your friendly offer of help and enlightenment?

Usually, people just think that somehow you cannot get a loan for a house (e.g. cannot fog a mirror) and is bitter about that.

Jack--
Interesting yarn! Good to see how your experience/knowledge gives you optimism in Marin (my hope as well). I have so little of that, as we're recent transplants to the county, and could use good advice. I'm a "frustrated architect" here as well--I did the tour through art school too! One outlet to my frustration is to eventually buy some land (doubtful here in Marin), and design/build a home of our dreams.

Btw, I was wondering –since you’re an artist, could you paint or draw something that expresses your vision of the housing bubble? Maybe a nice watercolor of a sea of McMansions all with Realtor signs and Escalades parked in the driveway, extending to the horizon? Or a portrait of a Speculator with bulging suitcase full of NAAVLP money, salivating with greed over FTB/victims?

And when you’re finished, we could scan it & post next to “Mr. Bubble” on Patrick’s link site. Just an idea…

Jack, I'm serious about this --what d'ya think?

Since then, whenever I hear one of my friends making an offer a house, I send them this link and their reaction is always some sarcastic, “thanks a lot!”

Gee, doesn't that sound familiar...
Just yesterday, visiting my sister and husband, they announced they're planning on buying a second home in the C. Valley as a "college nest-egg" for their infant son.
I'm no financial expert, but I raised concerns that it may be hard to cover the mortgage, possible RE overvaluations, etc. The "bubble" didn't seem to concern them at all.
I'm no financial expert, but isn't it more financially savvy to skip buying the house and direct that money towards more stable, long-term investments?

I’m no financial expert, but isn’t it more financially savvy to skip buying the house and direct that money towards more stable, long-term investments?

It is foolish to rely on a highly-leveraged investment to attain a future financial goal. Leverage is about possible upside above and beyond necessities.

Jack,

Actually I wasn't thinking about a cartoon/caricature, but more along the lines of fine/representational "real" art. Maybe an avant-garde Picasso-esque interpretation of a speculator. Or, a realistic or impressionistic landscape of McMansion sprawl.

But... if your "neutralistic" leanings make this impossible, I understand. ;-)Maybe you could make it a class assignment for your students this fall ("Impressions of the RE market")? And don't worry about scanning/photoshopping --Peter or some of the other BA bloggers can handle that.

I'm a 31-yr-old writer renting in So Cal with two preschoolers at home, and I've been lurking on this site for about 6 months. I've only ever posted once before. My husband, an army officer, is a native San Franciscan who wants to return to the Bay Area in about 5 years to be near family and friends.

I became interested in the housing bubble when, last winter, our inlaws tried to convince us that we needed to buy a house in the BA then and rent it out until we were ready to move there. They had this 1.2 million dollar *major* fixer-upper in San Mateo in mind for us, and we began to wonder if the whole state had gone crazy.

In desperation, I googled "bay area housing bubble" and came up with this site, which I've been visiting regularly ever since. I've sent links to it to all of our BA friends and family who've expressed interest in buying second-home investment property there in recent months, and none of them have seemed convinced of anything other than that real estate is a sure investment bet. Sigh.

So we're sitting back hoping that in 5 years, we can buy a modest version of our dream house in the Bay Area, and if not, we'll go elsewhere and buy a much nicer house in some other nice place.

My interests are digital photography, jogging, and lately blogging. And I love, love love traditional architecture.

This just in...

CNN Money: "Banking on illegal immigrants - Banks are seeing an untapped resource in providing home loans to undocumented U.S. residents" tinyurl.com/btn9a

From CNN illegal immigrant mortgage article:

"Despite heated political debate in Washington over illegal immigration in the United States, an increasing number of banks are seeing an untapped resource for growing their own revenue stream and contend that providing undocumented residents with mortgages will help revitalize local communities."

Great idea! Hey, maybe there are some other "untapped resources" out there for growing the "revenue stream"? Like providing loans to sell crack to school kids, or financing a brothel for your wife/daughter. Maybe that will help "revitalize" the local neighborhood, too!

There's just no end to the "creativity" possible...

I've posted a couple of times. I'm 37 and bought my house in 97. I've watched this bubble with alarm and thought it would pop shortly after the the dot com burst. I did not see rates falling as low as they did.

After my favorite bubble site (www.itulip.com) stopped its updates on real estate after calling the RE bubble in 2000, I searched for another and found the early version of Patrick on Google (typed in Bay Area Housing Crash!). Most folks dismiss my views as crazy but they did in Oct. '99 as well.
My views are less extreme than his and I think (hope) prices will revert to the 1999-2002 timeframe if there is a lending crunch.

I'm originally from India and enjoy all that the Bay Area has to offer.

I have also been lurking here for a short time. ;-)

After working almost 30 years in the SV high-tech field, I am moving on to my new career as an attorney practicing construction law. I figure that I may have a thriving business from the people who have purchased homes with construction defects.

I spent 30 years working for companies like Intel, ROLM, IBM, and Cisco. I think that industry will never see significant growth again.

My daughter who just graduated from Northeastern wanted to get an EE or CS and I said NO! Instead, she took my advice (I wonder why?) and received her degree in biotech.

She got her first job in MA., working for Wyeth Labs as a Jr. Scientist.

My point is that SV is becoming the next Detroit. Even the CEO of Oracle has made this statement.

Why would anyone want to buy an overpriced SV shack is beyond me, when the jobs in high tech don't support the kind of income

My point is that SV is becoming the next Detroit. Even the CEO of Oracle has made this statement.

Larry is not my favorite but I have to agree with him this time.

BUT, what about all of those "Silicon Valley is making a COMEBACK" stories I've been hearing for over a year now?

I have a friend who works at Oracle and he's been waiting for the pink slip for awhile. He says they're planning on outsourcing thousands of jobs in the near future. I hear this pretty regularly about HP and Intel as well, and this area is already starting to see some HP layoff's. It's funny, when I graduated college, everything was tech. All the new college graduates were so smug at the number of jobs availiable in their field and we'd always hear them say they wouldn't take an entry level job for less than $40K a year. I find it real hard to have sympathy for those guys now that they're scrammbling for jobs. If they managed to make the transfer to RE, I'll have even less sympathy for them since they're the one's that helped create the RE mess.

BUT, what about all of those “Silicon Valley is making a COMEBACK” stories I’ve been hearing for over a year now?

I heard that Detroit is making a comeback too, with those weird-looking semi-retro vehicles targeted towards the almighty boomer generation.

SactoQt, I believe Oracle's plan is to offshore most technical jobs. They have an impressive "compound" in India with room to grow.

So in other words, all those PeopleSoft people in Pleasanton who were offered jobs with Oracle back in January now have a false sense of security?

My friend who works at Oracle has met some of his Indian counterparts and he says they're way more educated than we are, and willing to work for far less. Some people seem to think only manufacturing jobs are getting outsourced, but there are a lot of brilliant people willing to work twice as hard for half the income. We should really be paying more attention to this.

Let me add, I believe most large companies will plan to offshore most technical jobs if at all possible. There are really very few reasons for them to keep jobs here. They must also offshore some middle management positions though.

I think anyone working in tech right now may have a false sense of security.