patrick.net

SF ace says

G&A expense and R&D expense are trending and accelerating up for most SV based companies in 2011.

Hey SFace, where is this info coming from? Also, do you have a break-down to indicate to what degree these expenses are going up due to state/federal tax credits? I'm curious also about how R&D expenses have been affected by prices paid, as opposed to payouts for wages. Thanks.

ch_tah says

Some positive news for jobs in SV:

The article definitely has a positive spin. Seems like the CEOs surveyed think 2010 wasn't such a bad year and consequently, have the opinion that 2011 will be better. From your article:

More CEOs are seeing improved business conditions in Silicon Valley, according to a new survey, adding to the growing optimism over the region's economy.

In addition to declaring 2010 a turnaround year for the region, the report from the Silicon Valley Leadership Group found optimism going forward: Most CEOs expect their companies to boost hiring in 2011 as well.

But...

Participants in the business survey, which was conducted online in December and January, were culled from SVLG's 335 members. The combined global revenue for the responding firms is close to $2 trillion.

- So this is a trade group sponsored survey, as opposed to a statistical/scientific study:
http://svlg.org/press/index.php

The Silicon Valley Leadership Group provides information and its point of view on the issues for which we advocate and others as appropriate. Please contact our Director of Communications for assistance.

- Not to say that there is anything wrong with trade groups polling their own members (edit - except for potential bias due to conflict-of-interest...). That said, survey-based info is always iffy because the people polled can always change their mind. I'd like to see some more detailed info on how looming federal and state budget cuts will affect company profitability, particularly when certain trade group members feel this way:

It would also be nice to see a breakdown of what kind of jobs are being created, ESPECIALLY relative those that have been lost over the past 3-10 years.

terrideaner, you have good points and hopefully you will find your desired data. My main point is that in spite of thomas.wong's continuous "the sky is falling" on SV, other people in the industry have a slightly different view.

Thanks ch_tah, still looking for that data. I'm not clear on what is going on with SV hiring, but if I was running a CEO survey, I'd probably ask them a broader set of more detailed questions.

Thanks for the numbers SFace. Do you have a single source for this data (like this - http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html), or do you have to comb through each company's website/prospectus?

SF ace says

AMD
G&A R&D
1Q-2010 219M 323M
2Q-2010 229M 371M
3Q-2010 236M 359M
4Q-2010 250M 352M

2008 1,304M 1,848M last great year in the valley, huige layoffs one time cost inflate 2008 numbers
2009 994M 1,721M 30% Budget cut, benefited from mass layoffs in 2008 and early 2009
2010 934M 1,405M residual effect of budget cut, no new layoffs
2011 1,100M 1.500M Guess, but Q1 coming out soon. modest hiring.

Hmm... what about the runup to 2008?

SF ace says

Of course this is an overview (whoch doesn’t accunt for M&A and structural change), but if expenses are trending up, payroll correlates pretty well.

The strength of this correlation is of interest to me, as well as how much overseas workers contribute to payroll numbers.

BTW - Bill McBride is on your bandwagon:

Another Boom in Silicon Valley
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

Which surprises me a little considering he had this to say yesterday about the disappointing Philly Fed number (18.5 on expectations of 36.9):

First, the Philly Fed index is noisy month-to-month.

and

Obviously this index is noisy, and this is just one month. Still a reading of 18.5 shows decent expansion, not the end of the world as we know it.

Interestingly, the monthly estimate for the 6-month forecast for this index tracks pretty well with the actual numbers, but with a strong overestimate bias (~+30 to +40), at least since 2007 or so. The current 6-month forecast # for April is 33.6, which suggests that the *actual* May index report will be around or even below zero, the latter indicating contraction. But this is only one manufacturing index and one timepoint, after all (chart from zerohedge):

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/philadelphia-fed-massive-miss-comes-185-expectations-369-downward-q2-gdp-revisions-can-now-c

Anyhow, the irony is that the SVLG report and the Philly Fed index are both survey based, and consequently both have similar issues for predicting long-terms trends. But then again McBride is a bit of an optimist and usually chooses to spin his reports towards the lighter side of things if he can.

One more thing, was the SVLG survey completed before March 11th, 2011?

Consider:

Supply Chain Disruption Update
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/supply-chain-disruption-update.html

Several tech companies have said supply chain issues will impact Q2.

and in Bill's opinion:

This will be an issue most of the year, although most of the impact for the U.S. in Q2 and a little in Q3. I've seen estimates that supply issues will be a drag on U.S. GDP growth of about 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in Q2 and probably less in Q3.