patrick.net

Plan B: Leave the Bay Area or keep renting. Either is fine with me.

the large number of specuvestors who used these loans as leverage to obtain properties without much equity and are carrying a negative balance sheet month-to-month will have a much harder time navigating this path.

Maybe.

One thing though: when Phoenix and other speculative areas crumble, those Cali locusts will have tough choices.

Peter P Says:

What did Mary say?

Keeping with the biblical theme (Bubble Buddy, where are you?) Peter P should now be called our Doubting Thomas. Just when the bubble is at the inflection point, he is injecting reservations left and right. BTW, that would probably make Surfer-X our John the Baptist...

Red Whine Says:

"...It’s time to pack it up, kids. We’ve lost this one."

Exactly!

Oh, man. But what does it REALLY mean?

Sure, I know, it means that sh-t's gonna hit the fan. There's going to be some major reshuffling of the deck. Is it an inflationary shuffle, a deflationary shuffle, a stagflationary shuffle, or just more Three Card Monte, shuck and jive bullsh-t?

You can't reshuffle the refinance, equity extraction deck forever!

WTF is coming down the pike? A missile from North Korea? A world war starting in Iran? A deppression?

I guess anything is better than perpetual, ponzi scheme, financial Musical Chairs.

Will someone please just pull the fricken' plug and get it over with already.

Who's gonna be the first to take the plunge and take his Platinum Visa to Vegas and go down in a blaze of glory!

Anticipation of death is worse than death itself. Somebody do SOMETHING!

Goddamn...

Under this scenario, it seems prices may moderate and slide a bit but no crash and certainly no 35% plus drops.

We may still see 35% crash for condos in sub-prime areas. I have abandoned the "crash" outlook for SFHs in desirable locations.

Plan C: Move to San Diego in a few years.

skibum,

Oh agreed! Think Ashland, OR. Same thing happens every time Money Mag prints up their 10 best places to retire or Conde Naste runs a piece on the Maldives or wherever. Ruinous I tell you! Look at all the foreigners affected by the Tsunami (and during Christmas no less!) People from all over the world converging on 4 star hotels in a beach town that didn't have electricity 10 years ago? Rock stars, models, celebs. The movie "The Beach" was quite revealing to me b/c I've spent much of life looking for it, finding it, then having to look on in horror as it becomes transformed. No Sir Surfer X, I didn't rent the the movie b/c I fantasize about having a "cuddle" with Leonardo!

Keeping with the biblical theme

Huh? I was thinking about Peter Paul and Mary.

Peter P Says:

Huh? I was thinking about Peter Paul and Mary.

But the original idiom does indeed refer to the Apostles.

@ Michael Holliday,

"Who’s gonna be the first to take the plunge and take his Platinum Visa to Vegas and go down in a blaze of glory!"

I've already started. In the past, I've always maxed out my 401k. I've now stopped. I've started spending this money. I'm going to a Bordeaux tasting tonight that was $250 per ticket. I saw Les Miserables for $100 a head three nights ago.

Robert Kiyosaki is right: "Savers are losers."

Ignore the CPI -- it's bullshit. Every dollar that you save will have 60 cents of spending power by next year. Spend it like it's going out of style -- because IT IS.

"WTF is coming down the pike? A missile from North Korea? A world war starting in Iran? A deppression?

I guess anything is better than perpetual, ponzi scheme, financial Musical Chairs.

Will someone please just pull the fricken’ plug and get it over with already."

You're right. I saw the horrific news about those two troops this morning, and for the first time I didn't even care -- I thought, "You know what? The New Ekkkonomy is destroying America far faster than any terrorist group could EVER hope to do it." I honestly no longer care if they win or lose.

The movie “The Beach” was quite revealing to me b/c I’ve spent much of life looking for it, finding it, then having to look on in horror as it becomes transformed. No Sir Surfer X, I didn’t rent the the movie b/c I fantasize about having a “cuddle” with Leonardo!

Oh, but I would most definitely "cuddle" with Kate Bosworth in "Blue Crush"...

Much of the "Re-set Issue" being a non-factor hinges on one other important factor.

Occupants. If upwards of 40% of the homes sold in 2005 were to investors (with their constant companion the NAAVLP) how much serious effort is going to go into salvaging those "homes"?

Red Whine,

Have faith. I really don't think things are so doom-and-gloom. Even people on this board can be too short-sighted at times. The correction is already underway and picking up momentum. Besides, you can't on the one hand bemoan being priced out forever while on the other hand predicting economic and political armageddon. The two scenarios are pretty much mutually exclusive.

"the trick is to find a great job that replaces current Bay Area salary."

Yes, I know what you mean.

Uh I think that fact that the bubble seems to need "fresh meat" in far flung places should be telling us something. It's exhuasted it's fuel supply and needs to move on or it will die. Boise Bubble? C'mon.

Once it's pushed the envelope completely beyond what even crooked appraisers are willing to pencil in it has to expand out b/c as long as the promise of free/cheap/easy money lives it can survive. When there's a bubble in Cairo, IL we'll have ruined the entire country.

*All of the "Blue Crush" girls were cute. Yes even Michelle (one more for the road) Rodriguez.

Condos in subprime areas, no thanks Pete. If I can’t buy a SFH in a nice to decent area for 35% plus off then I’m not interested.

Do not count on a 35% _nominal_ reduction. It may still happen though, I do not know.

Skibum,

"I really don’t think things are so doom-and-gloom."

As long as one believes that the death of the middle class in just five years is "no big deal", then you're absolutely right.

"The correction is already underway and picking up momentum."

Prices are still rising. Rising inventories have yet to have any effect on prices. Correction, my ass.

"you can’t on the one hand bemoan being priced out forever while on the other hand predicting economic and political armageddon. The two scenarios are pretty much mutually exclusive."

Besides the fact that no one said that, it makes no sense standing on its own.

Priced out forever? Yes. I'm not predicting any kind of armageddon. Nobody here said that. I'm saying I don't care if armageddon comes. I'll be priced out of the rental market within five years if it keeps appreciating at the current pace. My wife won't leave town because her entire extended family lives here. So when we can't afford rent (could be more than five years, but probably not much more), she moves back in with her parents, and I file for divorce and leave town.

Home ownership is not the "American Dream". It's a weapon of mass destruction against the middle class. If you would have told me in 2000 that making a solid middle class income, having no debt, and six digit savings could STILL cause you to fail your family and become financially insolvent through the devaluation of your savings and wages, I would have stopped saving and started spending then. Spend it or lose it kids, because it won't buy you anything tomorrow.

I hope the working class take to the streets and start torching condos. THAT would be justice.

Prices are still rising. Rising inventories have yet to have any effect on prices. Correction, my ass.

MEDIAN prices are still rising. Rising inventories have yet to have any effect on MEDIAN prices.

There are so many homes to choose from now.

If you would have told me in 2000 that making a solid middle class income, having no debt, and six digit savings could STILL cause you to fail your family and become financially insolvent through the devaluation of your savings and wages, I would have stopped saving and started spending then.

I could have told you that. Too bad this board was not around back then.

There are literally millions of millionaires (excluding primary residence) in this country. There are tens of thousands of families with at least 1M of liquid net worth in the Bay Area. A 6-digit saving account means shit if it is not growing as quickly as other people's investment.

Do not just spend it or save it. Invest it. Increase your understanding of the world. Improve your relationship with God.

DinOR Says:

> Back in 1999 we took everybody up to Priest Lake, ID and
> rented a houseboat. Nice boat, great area, no jobs. A
> few months ago the NYT ran an article about an “undiscovered”
> area in eastern Oregon called Joseph. Now I’ll admit it is real
> pretty but since the article ran local realtors have been
> swamped with calls from as far away as Conneticut for
> crissakes! Talk about a rolling bubble! How often would
> somebody from CT be able to come out here? How would
> they get there?

The people that bought on the West Shore of Lake Tahoe in the 50’s, the North Shore of Lake Tahoe in the 60’s, Vail in the 70’s, Aspen in the 80’s and Sun Valley in the 90’s all made millions so people who can’t afford to buy in Tahoe, the big CO resort areas or Sun Valley are looking for the hot new place (where property will soon be selling for millions of dollars since resort/vacation real estate always goes up)…

SQT,

Well there you have it, when you're getting RE inv. advice from your hair dresser that's usually time to roll the credits!

Michael Holliday said the "Anticipation of death is worse than death itself"?

Well when you're dead you're dead. No more problems. When your mortgage goes up 20/30/35% it's death by a thousand cuts. Knowing it is following you around with the clock running in a declining market (and FICO) have got to be awful!

We're on the right side of this equation.

Home ownership is not the “American Dream”. It’s a weapon of mass destruction against the middle class.

This strikes me as too conspiratorial for my personal comfort. If anything, the American middle class has conspired against themselves. Who told them to buy oversized homes, fill it with crap they can't afford, and become willing pawns in this housing pyramid scheme? I suspect consumption has become a distraction from issues we need to face. America has victimized itself, and sooner or later it will need to come to grips with that.

I suspect consumption has become a distraction from issues we need to face. America has victimized itself, and sooner or later it will need to come to grips with that.

I agree. It is more important to find peace within ourselves.

"Do not just spend it or save it. Invest it. Increase your understanding of the world."

The only asset class that makes money is real estate. Where have you been? The highest performing investment next to real estate has been the stock market, which, adjusted for inflation, hasn't budged in close to a decade.

"Improve your relationship with God."
Just stop that.

"I could have told you that. Too bad this board was not around back then."
If this was such common knowledge, why did finance curriculum steer students into losing investments like stocks, bonds, and currencies -- and away from highly-leveraged real estate investments using exotic loans? Right -- they didn't. I call bullshit.

I hope the working class take to the streets and start torching condos. THAT would be justice.

Idiotic. We need more high density high rise condos and less SFH to ease the pressure and for bait for the empty nesters sitting on 1500sqFt Homes. Torching 1/4 acre+ Prop 13 SFHs would probably assist the rest of us but your wife will be happier if you duct tape her and move to Denver instead of ending up in Jail.

100 flights back to the Bay Area over the next 20 years
$500 x 2 x 100 = $100,000. Cheaper than a BA downpayment.

FAB,

"looking for the hot new place"

Well, no argument there. The reason I thought the article about Joseph, OR was surreal was b/c there is really nothing to do there. Not even gambling. At least Tahoe has entertainment and is considerably warmer. I've never been there in winter but I understand Joseph has tundra-like winters!

Kurt,

"This strikes me as too conspiratorial for my personal comfort. If anything, the American middle class has conspired against themselves."

Dude, you gotta read, skimming ain't gonna cut it.

Pasting from my earlier post:

"This is similar to when women entered the workforce en masse. With each household suddenly enjoying more disposable income, then “disposed” of it by engaging each other in bidding wars over the same commodities that they were buying before. In exercise in futility, and a net loss for everyone.

Now, similarly, those with houses are doing the same thing. Houses are being used as weapons to compete. "

You and I are saying the same thing.

The only asset class that makes money is real estate.

I missed it. That was the past. What is the future?

If this was such common knowledge, why did finance curriculum steer students into losing investments like stocks, bonds, and currencies — and away from highly-leveraged real estate investments using exotic loans? Right — they didn’t. I call bullshit.

Huh?

Red Whine,

First of all, chill out. I'm not some troll trying to get your dander up. In fact, I was hoping to point out to you some positives in the whole economy/bubble picture. But I do need to counter your arguements:

Prices are still rising. Rising inventories have yet to have any effect on prices. Correction, my ass.

You fail to recognize that most here agree that rising inventory is THE leading indicator before price declines occur. Again, patience. Moreover, prices are indeed starting to budge in SD, Boston, FL and elsewhere.

You also deny armageddon predictions. Well honestly, statements like,

You know what? The New Ekkkonomy is destroying America far faster than any terrorist group could EVER hope to do it

or

Home ownership is not the “American Dream”. It’s a weapon of mass destruction against the middle class.

sound pretty darn armageddon-ish to me. Besides, your behavior of stopping 401K contributions is indicative of a doom-and-gloom sentiment.

I feel for you - it really sucks to have to worry about your family being able to weather the upcoming economic upheaval. All I'm trying to say is that I'm still of the camp that the economic situation will correct itself. The issue of the ongoing loss of the middle class is however, pretty real, but housing is not the only thing to blame for this.

FRIFY-

You can't go spouting off logic to an emotional woman. C'mon, you know that.

"100 flights back to the Bay Area over the next 20 years
$500 x 2 x 100 = $100,000. Cheaper than a BA downpayment."

No amount of logic, albeit good logic, is going to persuade a hysterical woman who is being pulled away from her entire extended family. She takes a walk with her mother after dinner every night. This ends badly. Not that I would tell her this, but I wish she would just find someone who owns real estate, and "let me off easy."

Funny you mention Denver. That was one of my top picks!

No amount of logic, albeit good logic, is going to persuade a hysterical woman who is being pulled away from her entire extended family. She takes a walk with her mother after dinner every night.

What is wrong with that?

I agree. It is more important to find peace within ourselves.

And so true around here! Back when I was single and living in "statusy" Los Altos, I remember how obsessed college grads were at landing that big paycheck, or finding a spouse that could provide the "good life" in abundance. So much hinged on grabbing that wad of $$$, that all else was thrown out the window: community, civility, social ethics--even contentment. Now, some of them have everything they wanted, but little of what they need. I say f*ck to all of that, and count ourselves lucky to have lived outside the US--and gained a healthy sense of perspective.

“I hope the working class take to the streets and start torching condos.”

Clearly illegal and unamerican.

Skibum,

"sound pretty darn armageddon-ish to me."

Okay, you're right. Let me recant that in place of something I said earlier:

"I actually believe that this is the end of life as we know it, and the beginning of a different life."

Life will not end. Life as we know it will. Mentally, I still fail to wrap my mind around how quickly the middle class and the cornerstones of that lifestyle (ability to retire/pension, home ownership, etc.) proved to be an accident of history.

The 401k decision I still maintain to make sense. If you know:

1) That the money will decrease in spending power even if your investments "beat inflation."

and

2) That retirement is an impossibility even if you max out your 401k contributions to $1250 per month (max. allowable) plus your $4k Roth IRA, it's like a kid saving his allowance to buy Egypt.

The choice is obvious. Spend and enjoy. When you buy a memory by going to a show, taking a weekend trip, etc., you have "banked" something that cannot be deflated into non-existence. It was -- and hence cannot be un-done.

Davis_renter,

Thanks for the link and the data, even if it is depressing. Numbers like those press even the most ardent free market capitalist like myself. While the evaporating middle classes are the focus of most popular concern here and in other forums, it is the dramatic growth of the impoverished that keeps me up at night. This can only go so far before there are big, ugly, generally unplanned changes that will make just about everyone who reads this blog unhappy.

"consumption has become a distraction"

It's funny you would say that. Jeff Immelt (GE CEO) said basically the same thing today. And this coming from a company that owns entertainment divisions. I think he said we are becoming the "massage capitol of the world".

I've been saying this for years. Don't get me wrong, it's fine to have hobbies and interests but stick with them. I know people that have jet skis, motor homes, ski boats/fishing boats, dirt bikes AND sand rails! Sheesh, pick something and stick with it!

You and I are saying the same thing

Red Whine-
Sorry, sometimes I skim in the interest of time. Agreed: people definitely compete/gloat over their homedebtorship.

Under this scenario, it seems prices may moderate and slide a bit but no crash and certainly no 35% plus drops.

Ahh yeah, that's because everyone in California is a millionare, besides I think all those middle/upper management types making 200K plus are dying to move into 1/1 stucco shitboxes. You Sir are a man of genius richly deserving to be on a bud light commericial.

Just for clarity, the flippers, specuvestors and FBs I talked to in my own small, rural midwestern sampling (sadly many were old friends and a few relatives) were entirely LOCALS.

It's not as if Californians are poring into NE Indiana and SW Ohio flipping the 800K McMansions. It is folks who live there doing it. They just imported our brand of insanity.

What distresses me is that, as a generality, most of these folks have significantly less nominal income + wealth, so they will be bigger FBs as a % of their losses. Some dual income BA yuppies with $250K joint income will get hurt bad enough with a toxic $650K loan, but now imagine the single income, 3 kids, $70K/year family in Indiana with nearly the same sized loan. If BA FBs are "junk bond" grade investments, then the poor folks in the Midwest are "toxic waste" grade.

RW,
What is most definitely true about your thesis is that the American idea of the "middle class" is very likely going to turn out to be a short blip on the historical time scale. Post-ww2 industrialization, the glee of winning the war, the GI bill, etc etc all helped to create the US middle class. We're reverting back to the roaring 20's, robber baron model of American economics.

However, I do agree with Peter - even if you do opt out of your 401K, don't just blow the wad - invest it. I do realize, though, that the current volatility in almost every market makes it a difficult road. Does your employer match your contributions?