patrick.net

SohailStar1 says

Some analysts predict that Dow can reach 40,000pts in the coming years.

Sounds crazy, but artificially it can be done.

There are many factors that come in play in such a scenario.

"In the coming years" is vague. A 300% increase in the Dow is guaranteed, over a long enough period of time. It went up over 500% from 1939 to 1960, and over 10,000% from 1980 to 2000.

However, from 1960 to 1980 it was basically flat, and it's been basically flat since 2000 as well.

Almost at the first date of prediction now...

cheers.

xenogear3 says

I can predict the predictions.
The people on this message board are so negative.

Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king.

All right, except the stock market.
Stock Market will be through the roof high.

- Lower value of dollar means higher stock market.

- Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles)

- Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents?

Negative prediction from me would be like this:
- China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation.
- We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending).
- Inflation goes through the roof.
- You'll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive.

Chris_In_LosAngeles says

You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive.

You forgot about planting potatoes

Chris_In_LosAngeles says

xenogear3 says

I can predict the predictions.

The people on this message board are so negative.
Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king.

All right, except the stock market.

Stock Market will be through the roof high.
- Lower value of dollar means higher stock market.
- Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles)
- Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents?
Negative prediction from me would be like this:

- China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation.

- We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending).

- Inflation goes through the roof.

- You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive.

People invoking Zimbabwe in the US are idiots. 100% inflation over 5 years would eliminate the US debt entirely if we had a balanced budget.

If we don't have a balanced budget, no amount of inflation would touch the debt.

America's problems today are not the same as Zimbabwe's (a completely destabilized, chaotic country that underwent massive social change and was never wealthy to begin with) or Weimar Germany's (a country that owed debt in Gold to its neighbors).

Yes, there will be inflation. Yes, it will be significant. No, we won't be pushing around barrels of money to buy bread.

Kevin says

Chris_In_LosAngeles says

xenogear3 says

I can predict the predictions.
The people on this message board are so negative.

Everyone will predict High Unemployment, US dollar tanked, Low Stock Market, Gold and Guns are the king.

All right, except the stock market.
Stock Market will be through the roof high.

- Lower value of dollar means higher stock market.

- Gold and guns are always king (thats how you collect rent in Oakland and Los Angeles)

- Unemployment only going to go up, why hire an american for 20/hour when a chinese/indian will do it for 50cents?

Negative prediction from me would be like this:
- China stops lending us money due to fears of national deficit and inflation.
- We print money zimbabwe style to pay the deficits (since we never cut spending).
- Inflation goes through the roof.
- You’ll be trading houses for guns because guns keep you alive.

People invoking Zimbabwe in the US are idiots. 100% inflation over 5 years would eliminate the US debt entirely if we had a balanced budget.
If we don’t have a balanced budget, no amount of inflation would touch the debt.
America’s problems today are not the same as Zimbabwe’s (a completely destabilized, chaotic country that underwent massive social change and was never wealthy to begin with) or Weimar Germany’s (a country that owed debt in Gold to its neighbors).
Yes, there will be inflation. Yes, it will be significant. No, we won’t be pushing around barrels of money to buy bread.

Why would it eliminate the debt? It is right that it would eliminate past debt. but because we are not living within a balanced budget it would mean new debt would arise (and now under inflated value) faster than old debt would be paid off. We'd just be where we started off, except everyone would be very very poor.

Chris_In_LosAngeles says

Why would it eliminate the debt? It is right that it would eliminate past debt. but because we are not living within a balanced budget it would mean new debt would arise (and now under inflated value) faster than old debt would be paid off. We’d just be where we started off, except everyone would be very very poor.

Did you really only read the first sentence?

Well, it is the end of 2010.

Happy New Year!

Even I was overly pessimistic:

My guesses were:

75 Yen -> dollar
$1.47 US$ -> Euro
$1.03 USD -> AUD (close!)
1215 S&P (way too low)
17% U6 (nailed it)
49 CCI

What I'm utterly shocked by is just how much better things are now than I expected them to be, and I was the optimistic ones.

I don't think I'm going to revise my June 30th predictions though, except for the S&P. I'm predicting the S&P at 1400 in June.

Well I am really off so far on the S&P 500. Might go down as one of the dumbest things written ...

I was right on the stock market numbers overall. It was kind of obvious, rich people don't let their friends fail.

Gold at 10,000!

Halfway point between the two...

I am off on the S&P 500 but closer on the $A and ¥ exchange rates...

I wonder if high oil prices will pull the stock market down a bit...

Consumer confidence up at 64.4... (not sure why, though)
I wonder if they disproportionately ask those in the top 1%...

American in Japan says

Consumer confidence up at 64.4… (not sure why, though)

People are probably becoming more confident that they are spending all their money on food and gas these days...

American in Japan says

Consumer confidence up at 64.4… (not sure why, though)

I kind of wonder how they measure it too, and which areas where confidence is so well off. Last month couple more of my friends joined the unemployed ranks, for some of us confidence in this economy is very low.

Perhaps this gives a shade of info:

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/04/26/Consumer-Confidence-Edges-Up-Despite-Gloomy-Forecasts.aspx

Consumer confidence is 58.5 for June. More to come...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumers-confidence-down-in-apf-4216578380.html

Higher than I thought at 58.5.
the Euro did better than I thought too ... looking for unemployment.

S&P 500 is 1313.9

USD/JPY = 80.4350
AUD/USD = 1.072
EUR/USD = 1.446

U6 unemployement (May 2011 is the latest) 17.4%

Thanks for your predictions everyone. Happy July 4th!

Thanks Thunderlips! I've wanted to close this post up!
I was really close on that one (over by 0.1%). My S&P 500 guesses were way under. I underestimed the power of easy money.
I didn't think the euro would stay as high either...
I prefer U6 to U3 or the other indices, but that is another discussion....

The participation (comments) was OK, but at least thousands looked at this...thanks again.